scholarly journals First formal estimate of the world population of the Critically Endangered spoon-billed sandpiper Calidris pygmaea

Oryx ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nigel A. Clark ◽  
Guy Q. A. Anderson ◽  
Jing Li ◽  
Evgeny E. Syroechkovskiy ◽  
Pavel S. Tomkovich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Breeding Population ◽  
Critically Endangered ◽  
World Population ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Russian Arctic ◽  
Age Classes ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Population

AbstractThe spoon-billed sandpiper Calidris pygmaea is a Critically Endangered shorebird that breeds in the Russian arctic and winters in coastal and estuarine habitats in South-east Asia. We report the first formal estimate of its global population size, combining a mark–resighting estimate of the number of leg-flagged individuals alive in autumn 2014 with an estimate of the proportion of birds with flags from scan surveys conducted during the same period at a migration stop-over site on the Jiangsu coast of China. We estimate that the world breeding population of spoon-billed sandpipers in 2014 was 210–228 pairs and the post-breeding population of all age classes combined was 661–718 individuals. This and related methods have considerable potential for surveillance of the population size of other globally threatened species, especially widely dispersed long-distance migrants.

Global population size of a critically endangered lemur, Perrier's sifaka

2007 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 254-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Banks ◽  
E. R. Ellis ◽  
Antonio ◽  
P. C. Wright
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Critically Endangered ◽  
Global Population

scholarly journals Population status and trend of the Critically Endangered Montserrat Oriole

2013 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 252-261 ◽  
Author(s):  
STEFFEN OPPEL ◽  
ANDREW CASSINI ◽  
CALVIN FENTON ◽  
JAMES DALEY ◽  
GERARD GRAY
Keyword(s):  
Conservation Status ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Critically Endangered ◽  
World Population ◽  
Small Range ◽  
Forest Fragments ◽  
Forest Habitat ◽  
Monitoring Design ◽  
The World

SummaryMany island endemics are of great conservation concern due to small range and population sizes. The Montserrat Oriole Icterus oberi is a forest passerine endemic to the Caribbean island of Montserrat, where recent volcanic activity has destroyed a large proportion of suitable forest habitat. From 1997 to 2000 the Montserrat Oriole population declined dramatically even in the remaining forest habitat, leading to its classification as ‘Critically Endangered’. We present trend estimates of the Montserrat Oriole population from 2000 to 2013, and estimate the world population size in 2012 based on repeat point counts and beta-binomial mixture models. Montserrat Orioles recovered between 2003 and 2005, and we found no evidence for a continuing population decline. However, there was large uncertainty around trend estimates, and the power to detect a shallow negative trend was very low. Based on the comparison of count data at 42 points, the Montserrat Oriole population in 2013 was less than half as large as in 1998. To improve future trend estimates a new monitoring design was introduced in 2011, and applied to all subpopulations of the species in 2012. The world population in 2012 was estimated to hold between 307 (95% credible interval 212–503) and 690 birds (476–1131) birds in the two forest fragments on Montserrat, depending on whether the sampling area around each point count was assumed to encompass 100 m or 150 m. Based on these estimates, the Montserrat Oriole currently does not meet the IUCN criteria for ‘Critically Endangered’, and we recommend a revision of the species’ conservation status.

scholarly journals Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

2010 ◽  
Vol 365 (1554) ◽  
pp. 2779-2791 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Lutz ◽  
Samir KC
Keyword(s):  
Population Projections ◽  
World Population ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Total Size ◽  
Future Fertility ◽  
Western Asia ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Population ◽  
Population Stabilization ◽  
Future Population

The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8–10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.

Detonating the Population Bomb

2021 ◽  
pp. 158-192
Author(s):  
Emily Klancher Merchant
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
National Security ◽  
Population Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Population ◽  
The World ◽  
Population Establishment ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Global Population

Chapter 6 documents the fragmentation of what had previously been a consensus regarding global population growth at the end of the 1960s and beginning of the 1970s, resulting in the emergence of two separate factions. The population establishment continued to promote the position of the erstwhile consensus, which held that rapid population growth in developing countries was a barrier to economic development and could be adequately slowed through voluntary family planning programs. The population bombers contended that population growth anywhere in the world posed an immediate existential threat to the natural environment and American national security and needed to be halted through population control measures that demographers had previously rejected as coercive. These two positions went head-to-head at the UN World Population Conference in 1974, where both were rejected by leaders of developing countries.

scholarly journals Extra-pair paternity in a long-distance migratory songbird beyond neighbors’ borders and across male age classes

2018 ◽  
Vol 96 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonard R. Reitsma ◽  
James A. Jukosky ◽  
Alexi J. Kimiatek ◽  
Marrisa L. Goodnow ◽  
Michael T. Hallworth
Keyword(s):  
Bird Species ◽  
Breeding Population ◽  
Age Classes ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Extra Pair Paternity ◽  
Socially Monogamous ◽  
Migratory Songbird ◽  
Potential Strategy ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
Demographic Patterns

Roughly 90% of socially monogamous bird species exhibit some degree of extra-pair paternity (EPP), although the extent and the underlying mechanisms vary among species. We analyzed spatial and demographic patterns of EPP over a 6 year period (2005–2010) as part of a long-term population study of Canada Warblers (Cardellina canadensis (L., 1766)). We identified 12 microsatellite loci used to assess paternity for 185 nestlings from 61 nests. Extra-pair young (EPY) accounted for 41.6% of all nestlings and 57.4% of nests contained at least one EPY. Fewer than half of EPY were sired by males who shared territorial boundaries, and some males sired young in nests 1 km from their territory. The age of social males did not differ from males who cuckolded them. The majority (83%) of EPY were sired by males in older age classes (2+ years old), while <17% were sired by 1 year olds. Of the young sired by older males, 58.5% were sired by males 3–7 years old. Males that sired more EPY sired fewer within-pair young (WPY); those without EPY sired more WPY suggesting a possible fitness trade-off between these two strategies. Our findings suggest multiple age-based strategies within a single breeding population, as well as potential strategy shifts to maximize lifetime fitness as they age.

Beyond Population Stabilization: The Case for Dramatically Reducing Global Human Numbers

1997 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 183-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Kenneth Smail
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Standard Of Living ◽  
World Population ◽  
Past Time ◽  
Demographic Projections ◽  
Global Population ◽  
Population Stabilization

There is a growing tension between two apparently irreconcilable trends: (1) demographic projections that world population size will reach 10 to 11 billion by the middle of the next century; and (2) scientific estimates that the Earth's long-term sustainable carrying capacity (at an “adequate to comfortable” standard of living) may not be much greater than 2 to 3 billion. It is past time to develop internationally coordinated sociopolitical initiatives that go beyond slowing the growth or stabilizing global human numbers. After “inescapable realities” that humans must soon confront, and notwithstanding the considerable difficulties involved in establishing “global population optimums,” I conclude with several suggestions how best to bring about a very significant reduction in global population over the next two to three centuries. These proposals are cautiously optimistic.

First systematic sampling approach to estimating the global population size of the Critically Endangered Blue-throated Macaw Ara glaucogularis

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
SEBASTIAN K. HERZOG ◽  
OSWALDO MAILLARD Z. ◽  
TJALLE BOORSMA ◽  
GUSTAVO SÁNCHEZ-ÁVILA ◽  
VÍCTOR HUGO GARCÍA-SOLÍZ ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Critically Endangered ◽  
Population Estimates ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Entire Area ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Population Size Estimates ◽  
Global Population ◽  
Sampling Approach

Summary Reliable population size estimates are imperative for effective conservation and management of globally threatened birds like the ‘Critically Endangered’ Blue-throated Macaw Ara glaucogularis. Endemic to one of South America’s largest grassland floodplains, the Llanos de Moxos in northern Bolivia, the species’ global population size is uncertain. The region’s inaccessibility renders the application of traditional methods for obtaining bird population estimates impracticable or cost prohibitive. We developed a simultaneous, multilocality, double-sampling approach combined with quantitative habitat availability analyses to obtain the first rigorous population size estimate for the Blue-throated Macaw. We established 11 survey areas across its three subpopulations that were visited twice by one team in each subpopulation over a 23-day period in the 2015 dry season and obtained additional count data from two roost sites. We classified suitable habitat (palm forest islands) using Landsat 8 images and CLASlite forest monitoring software. We extrapolated the number of macaws detected (conservative estimate of the total number of macaws [CETN], highest single count [HSC]) per 100 ha of suitable habitat in each survey area to the entire area of suitable habitat in all subpopulations combined, corrected for the species’ range occupancy of 34.3%. The total number of Blue-throated Macaws detected by survey (CETN) and roost site counts was 137. Across all survey areas, the number of macaws per 100 ha of suitable habitat was 4.7 for the first and 4.4 for the second period for CETN and 3.2 and 3.4, respectively, for HSC data. Corresponding global population estimates were 426–455 (CETN) and 312–329 (HSC) individuals. Other recent research and anecdotal data support these estimates. Although it would be premature to propose downlisting the species to ‘Endangered’, our findings indicate that it has a larger population and slightly larger range than previously thought, and that the positive effects of conservation actions are now becoming apparent.

Population: The Gathering Crisis

Worldview ◽  
1984 ◽  
Vol 27 (11) ◽  
pp. 4-8
Author(s):  
Charles B. Keely
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
United Nations ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Population ◽  
The World ◽  
The Right ◽  
Global Population ◽  
India And China

Ten years ago the United Nations sponsored the first conference of governments on global population. Held in Bucharest, the conference was spearheaded by the United States and planned as a rally in support of the notion that population was growing too rapidly around the world and that the right prescription was family planning. But Bucharest did not turn out as planned. Such developing giants as India and China questioned the cure, and the rallying cry became, rather, that development is the best contraceptive. The conferees produced a grandly-named World Population Plan of Action which, though it acknowledged the role of family planning and contraception, had more than one plan in its platform.

scholarly journals Global association of obesity and COVID-19 death rates

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary L. Adams
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Population Size ◽  
World Population ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Best Fit ◽  
Global Population ◽  
Death Data

AbstractImportanceCOVID-19 was responsible for an enormous global death toll with large variation among countries.ObjectiveTo examine the possible impact of obesity on COVID-19 death rates.DesignMeasure associations between obesity rates in 2016 and COVID-19 deaths/million population through 2/25/2021, across countries.SettingGlobalParticipants167 countries for which obesity and death data were available, grouped by population size, with multiples of 10 countries in each of 8 groups plus a group including all 57 countries with obesity rates <15%.Outcome and measuresUsing Excel, COVID-19 deaths/million were regressed on the obesity rate for each country, based on obesity being a key factor in COVID hospitalizations and deaths. Using the least squares formula for the best fit for each model, R2, components of the formula, and the percentage of world population represented, were recorded for each group.ResultsObesity rates ranged from 2.1% to 37.9% and death rates ranged from 0.4/million to 1,892/million for groups representing up to 91% of global population. Results for the 8 population groups had R2 from 0.30 to 0.90 with slopes of the fitted line ranging from 27.9-51.0. Countries with obesity rates <15% had consistently low death rates (≤233/million), R2 of 0.003 and slope of the line=1.01.ConclusionsFor most countries about one-third of the difference in COVID death rates was due to obesity while in countries with obesity <15%, consistently low death rates were not associated with obesity. Reduced obesity rates could potentially have lowered the COVID death toll.

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