An Indirect Method to Estimate Total Fertility Rate on the Basis of the Moments of Age Distribution of Women in Reproductive age

Total fertility rate (TFR) is the universally used indicator to measure and monitor fertility transition and population stabilization. Calculation of TFR requires data on births by age of woman. In the absence of these data, several indirect methods have been proposed to estimate TFR but their application is limited to specific period and place. This paper deduces a simple regression method for estimating TFR based on the current age distribution of women in reproductive age. The method can be used to estimate TFR at local level and for different sub-groups of the population.

Fetal evaluation of post partum intrauterine contraceptive device versus interval intrauterine contraceptive device insertion

Background: Family planning is important not only for population stabilization, but it has been increasingly recognized as central tool to improve maternal and neonatal health. Aim of current study was to compare interval and post partum intrauterine contraceptive device (IUCD) insertion in terms of effectiveness and safety.Methods: This was a prospective observational cohort study, done in the department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, GMERS Medical College, Sola, Ahmedabad, from August 2015 to April 2017 was taken for evaluation. 80 women in each group who were inserted IUCD after delivery and in the interval period were studied. Outcome was measured by expulsion rate, continuation rate, and incidence of dysfunctional uterine bleeding (DUB), Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), failure rate and effect on puerperium.Results: Expulsion rate in PPIUCD group was 8.75% while in interval IUCD group it was 1.25%. Continuation rate following Postpartum intrauterine contraceptive device (PPIUCD) and interval IUCD insertion was 86.25% and 95% respectively. Incidence of bleeding per vaginum (menorrhagia) was 7.5% in PPIUCD group while 8.75% in interval IUCD group. There was one case 1.25% of PID in interval IUCD group while no case in PPIUCD was noted. Failure rate was nil in both the group. There was no effect on puerperium following PPIUCD insertion group during present study.Conclusions: PPIUCD is an effective and safe spacing method of contraception as compared to interval IUCD insertion. There is no statistically significant change in incidence of expulsion rate, continuation rate and other complications in both the group.

A Paradox of World Population Stabilization Policy

Population explosion of the last century necessitated adoption of a population stabilization policy internationally but without due consideration of its paradoxical impacts on future world economic and environmental sustainability and progress of civilization. Population stabilization policy makes world fertility level (projected) to fall below the replacement level by 2043. This will result in a declining work-age population endangering economic and environmental sustainability particularly during 2050 and beyond. This study has made an attempt to highlight this paradox of population stabilization policy in terms of its impacts on economic and environmental sustainability. It analyses the catch of the need for a declining population in order to maintain a stable population. It also analyses the time taking process of changing fertility habit of the human community under the concepts of „child bearing habitual gap‟ and „work-age formation gap‟. It argues that for a progressive and sustainable world economy a greater and rising work-age population is required and observes that world needs to maintain population growth at a rate balanced in terms of countries and earth‟s absorption capacity.

Mathematical Modeling Reveals the Factors Involved in the Phenomena of Cancer Stem Cells Stabilization

Cancer Stem Cells (CSC), a subset of cancer cells resembling normal stem cells with self-renewal and asymmetric division capabilities, are present at various but low proportions in many tumors and are thought to be responsible for tumor relapses following conventional cancer therapies. In vitro, most intriguingly, when isolated, CSCs return to their original proportion level as shown by various investigators. This phenomenon still remains to be explained.We suggest a mathematical model of cancer cell population dynamics, based on the main parameters of cell population dynamics, including the proliferation rates, the rates of cell death and the frequency of symmetric and asymmetric cell divisions both in CSCs and in non-CSCs. This model should help elucidating some important factors underlying the dynamics of the two populations, first of all, the phenomena of cancer stem cell population stabilization.Author SummaryCancer Stem Cells (CSC) present a subset of cancer cells which is thought to be responsible for tumor growth. That is why CSC are also named “tumor initiation cells”. Additionally, it was shown that CSC are resistant to chemo- and radio-therapies which suggests that these cells can be responsible for tumor relapses after these treatments. Experimental data in cancer cell lines have shown the intriguing phenomena of CSC population stability, which means that isolated CSC population rapidly stabilizes at its characteristic level (the relative proportion of CSC in a whole cancer population). We suggest a mathematical model of cancer cell population dynamics, based on experimentally measured dynamics of CSC population stabilization and including main parameters of cell population growth.We have computationally predicted probability of different scenarios of cancer cell behavior for each experimental case with measurable growth parameters. Moreover, we provide an analytical tool for elucidating important biochemical factors responsible for a particular dynamics of CSC population.The results may have important implications in therapeutic, because the destroying of a set of factors underlying CSC stability may help to avoid tumor relapses.

A study on prevalence of contraception and estimate unmet need of family planning among married women in the rural Shamirpet, Ranga Reddy District, T.S, India.

The study on contraceptive use and unmet need for family planning is the key to understanding the change in fertility and improving reproductive health. Family planning program aims to not only achieve population stabilization but also to promote reproductive health and reduce maternal, infant & child mortality and morbidity. In this study an attempt has been made to assess the family planning practices adopted in the rural Shamirpet. Probability proportion sampling was done and 402 women were selected from 13 villages. Prevalence of contraception was found to be 61.7%. Permanent methods were preferred over temporary methods. Total unmet need for family planning was 11.7%. The contraceptive prevalence rate found in the present study is higher than the district figures and is on par with the state statistics. Unmet needs also are low compared to state figures.