Assessing trends in Arctic sea-ice distribution in the Barents and Kara seas using the Kosmos–Okean satellite series

Polar Record ◽  
1995 ◽  
Vol 31 (177) ◽  
pp. 129-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gennady I. Belchansky ◽  
Ilia N. Mordvintsev ◽  
Gregory K. Ovchinnikov ◽  
David C. Douglas
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Satellite Image ◽  
Kara Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Barents And Kara Seas

AbstractTrends in the annual minimum sea-ice extent, determined by three criteria (absolute annual minimum, minimum monthly mean, and the extent at the end of August), were investigated for the Barents and western Kara seas and adjacent parts of the Arctic Ocean during 1984–1993. Four definitions of ice extent were examined, based on thresholds of ice concentration: >90%, >70%, >40%, and >10% (El, E2, E3, and E4, respectively). Trends were studied using ice maps produced by the Russian Hydro-Meteorological Service, Kosmos and Okean satellite imagery, and data extracted from published literature. During 1984–1993, an increasing trend in the extent of minimum sea-ice cover was observed in the Barents, Kara, and combined Barents–Kara seas, for all ice-extent definitions. Root-mean-square differences between hydro-meteorological ice maps and satellite-image ice classifications for coincident areas and dates were 15.5%, 19.3%, 18.8%, and 11.5%, for ice extensions El–E4, respectively. The differences were subjected to Monte Carlo analyses to construct confidence intervals for the 10-year ice-map trends. With probability p = 0.8, the average 10-year increase in the minimum monthly mean sea-ice extent (followed in brackets by the average increase in the absolute annual minimum ice extent) was 12–46% [26–96%], 31–71% [55–140%], 30–69% [26–94%], and 48–94% [35–108%] in the Barents Sea; 20–60% [32–120%], 10–45% [20–92%], 2–36% [13–78%], and 10–47% [8–69%] in the Kara Sea; and 9–43% [26–59%], 9–41% [30–63%], 8–41% [22–52%] and 15–51% [21–51%] in the combined Barents–Kara seas, for ice concentrations El–E4, respectively. Including published data from 1966–1983, the trend in minimum monthly mean sea-ice extent for the combined 28-year period showed an average reduction of 8% in the Barents Sea and a 55% reduction in the western Kara Sea; ice extent at the end of August showed an average reduction of 33% in the Barents Sea.

scholarly journals Seasonal and Regional Manifestation of Arctic Sea Ice Loss

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (12) ◽  
pp. 4917-4932 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingrid H. Onarheim ◽  
Tor Eldevik ◽  
Lars H. Smedsrud ◽  
Julienne C. Stroeve
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
East Siberian Sea ◽  
Shelf Seas ◽  
Perennial Ice

The Arctic Ocean is currently on a fast track toward seasonally ice-free conditions. Although most attention has been on the accelerating summer sea ice decline, large changes are also occurring in winter. This study assesses past, present, and possible future change in regional Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent throughout the year by examining sea ice concentration based on observations back to 1950, including the satellite record since 1979. At present, summer sea ice variability and change dominate in the perennial ice-covered Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara Seas, with the East Siberian Sea explaining the largest fraction of September ice loss (22%). Winter variability and change occur in the seasonally ice-covered seas farther south: the Barents Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, Greenland Sea, and Baffin Bay, with the Barents Sea carrying the largest fraction of loss in March (27%). The distinct regions of summer and winter sea ice variability and loss have generally been consistent since 1950, but appear at present to be in transformation as a result of the rapid ice loss in all seasons. As regions become seasonally ice free, future ice loss will be dominated by winter. The Kara Sea appears as the first currently perennial ice-covered sea to become ice free in September. Remaining on currently observed trends, the Arctic shelf seas are estimated to become seasonally ice free in the 2020s, and the seasonally ice-covered seas farther south to become ice free year-round from the 2050s.

scholarly journals The Impact of Stratospheric Circulation Extremes on Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (18) ◽  
pp. 7169-7183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen L. Smith ◽  
Lorenzo M. Polvani ◽  
L. Bruno Tremblay
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Stratospheric Circulation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Given the rapidly changing Arctic climate, there is an urgent need for improved seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice. Yet, Arctic sea ice prediction is inherently complex. Among other factors, wintertime atmospheric circulation has been shown to be predictive of summertime Arctic sea ice extent. Specifically, many studies have shown that the interannual variability of summertime Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) is anticorrelated with the leading mode of extratropical atmospheric variability, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), in the preceding winter. Given this relationship, the potential predictive role of stratospheric circulation extremes and stratosphere–troposphere coupling in linking the AO and Arctic SIE variability is examined. It is shown that extremes in the stratospheric circulation during the winter season, namely, stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex (SPV) events, are associated with significant anomalies in sea ice concentration in the Barents Sea in spring and along the Eurasian coastline in summer in both observations and a fully coupled, stratosphere-resolving general circulation model. Consistent with previous work on the AO, it is shown that SSWs, which are followed by the negative phase of the AO at the surface, result in sea ice growth, whereas SPVs, which are followed by the positive phase of the AO at the surface, result in sea ice loss, although the mechanisms in the Barents Sea and along the Eurasian coastline are different. The analysis suggests that the presence or absence of stratospheric circulation extremes in winter may play a nontrivial role in determining total September Arctic SIE when combined with other factors.

scholarly journals Climate-driven benthic invertebrate activity and biogeochemical functioning across the Barents Sea polar front

2020 ◽  
Vol 378 (2181) ◽  
pp. 20190365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Solan ◽  
Ellie R. Ward ◽  
Christina L. Wood ◽  
Adam J. Reed ◽  
Laura J. Grange ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ecosystem Functioning ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Benthic Invertebrate ◽  
Polar Front ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Nutrient Concentrations ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Biological Communities ◽  
The Barents Sea

Arctic marine ecosystems are undergoing rapid correction in response to multiple expressions of climate change, but the consequences of altered biodiversity for the sequestration, transformation and storage of nutrients are poorly constrained. Here, we determine the bioturbation activity of sediment-dwelling invertebrate communities over two consecutive summers that contrasted in sea-ice extent along a transect intersecting the polar front. We find a clear separation in community composition at the polar front that marks a transition in the type and amount of bioturbation activity, and associated nutrient concentrations, sufficient to distinguish a southern high from a northern low. While patterns in community structure reflect proximity to arctic versus boreal conditions, our observations strongly suggest that faunal activity is moderated by seasonal variations in sea ice extent that influence food supply to the benthos. Our observations help visualize how a climate-driven reorganization of the Barents Sea benthic ecosystem may be expressed, and emphasize the rapidity with which an entire region could experience a functional transformation. As strong benthic-pelagic coupling is typical across most parts of the Arctic shelf, the response of these ecosystems to a changing climate will have important ramifications for ecosystem functioning and the trophic structure of the entire food web. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning'.

scholarly journals A mechanism of spring Barents Sea ice effect on the extreme summer droughts in northeastern China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
YiBo Du ◽  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Siwen Zhao ◽  
Zhiheng Chen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Kara Sea ◽  
Northeastern China ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Negative Phase ◽  
Vapor Flux ◽  
The Barents Sea

Abstract The frequency of extreme drought events in northeastern China (NEC) has increased since the 2000s, and such a decadal anomalous trend may lead to significant stress on agriculture and economic development. The correlation between Arctic sea ice loss in spring and extreme summer droughts over NEC was investigated. The results show that the loss of sea ice over the Barents Sea in spring is associated with extreme droughts and positive height anomalies over NEC in summer. The physical processes include two pathways. First, Arctic ice loss from the Barents Sea to the Kara Sea results in reducing baroclinicity over the ice loss region but increasing baroclinicity over the ice melting region, which is favorable to the wave ridge over northern Europe and negative-phase Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). One wave train originates from negative-phase SNAO over North Atlantic–Europe and spreads to central Europe, central Asia, and NEC. Second, another wave motion flux originates from the Barents–Kara Sea propagating eastward, and then disperses southward to NEC. Both wave trains lead to anomalous anticyclonic circulation and westward subtropical high, which favors descending motion and less water vapor flux, thereby contributing to extreme drought.

scholarly journals Seasonal Prediction from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures: Opportunities and Pitfalls

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (20) ◽  
pp. 8197-8210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik W. Kolstad ◽  
Marius Årthun
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Norwegian Sea ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Lagged Correlation ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Arctic sea ice extent and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have been shown to be skillful predictors of weather anomalies in the midlatitudes on the seasonal time scale. In particular, below-normal sea ice extent in the Barents Sea in fall has sometimes preceded cold winters in parts of Eurasia. Here we explore the potential for predicting seasonal surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in Europe from seasonal SST anomalies in the Nordic seas throughout the year. First, we show that fall SST anomalies not just in the Barents Sea but also in the Norwegian Sea have the potential to predict wintertime SAT anomalies in Europe. Norwegian Sea SST anomalies in spring are also significant predictors of European SAT anomalies in summer. Second, we demonstrate that the potential for prediction is sensitive to trends in the data. In particular, the lagged correlation between Norwegian Sea SST anomalies in spring and European SAT anomalies in summer is considerably higher for raw data than linearly detrended data, largely due to warming SST and SAT trends in recent decades. Third, we show that the potential for prediction has not been stationary in time. One key result is that, according to two twentieth-century reanalyses, the strength of the negative lagged correlation between Barents Sea SST anomalies in fall and European SAT anomalies in winter after 1979 is unprecedented since 1900.

Impact of wave-induced sea ice fragmentation on sea ice dynamics in the MIZ

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillaume Boutin ◽  
Timothy Williams ◽  
Pierre Rampal ◽  
Einar Olason ◽  
Camille Lique
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Sea Ice Dynamics ◽  
Wave Induced ◽  
The Impact

<p>The decrease in Arctic sea ice extent is associated with an increase of the area where sea ice and open ocean interact, commonly referred to as the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). In this area, sea ice is particularly exposed to waves that can penetrate over tens to hundreds of kilometres into the ice cover. Waves are known to play a major role in the fragmentation of sea ice in the MIZ, and the interactions between wave-induced sea ice fragmentation and lateral melting have received particular attention in recent years. The impact of this fragmentation on sea ice dynamics, however, remains mostly unknown, although it is thought that fragmented sea ice experiences less resistance to deformation than pack ice. In this presentation, we will introduce a new coupled framework involving the spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III and the sea ice model neXtSIM, which includes a Maxwell-Elasto Brittle rheology. We use this coupled modelling system to investigate the potential impact of wave-induced sea ice fragmentation on sea ice dynamics. Focusing on the Barents Sea, we find that the decrease of the internal stress of sea ice resulting from its fragmentation by waves results in a more dynamical MIZ, in particular in areas where sea ice is compact. Sea ice drift is enhanced for both on-ice and off-ice wind conditions. Our results stress the importance of considering wave–sea-ice interactions for forecast applications. They also suggest that waves likely modulate the area of sea ice that is advected away from the pack by ocean (sub-)mesoscale eddies near the ice edge, potentially contributing to the observed past, current and future sea ice cover decline in the Arctic. </p>

scholarly journals Wave–sea-ice interactions in a brittle rheological framework

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillaume Boutin ◽  
Timothy Williams ◽  
Pierre Rampal ◽  
Einar Olason ◽  
Camille Lique
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Sea Ice Dynamics ◽  
Wave Induced ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The decrease in Arctic sea ice extent is associated with an increase of the area where sea ice and open ocean interact, commonly referred to as the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). In this area, sea ice is particularly exposed to waves that can penetrate over tens to hundreds of kilometres into the ice cover. Waves are known to play a major role in the fragmentation of sea ice in the MIZ, and the interactions between wave-induced sea ice fragmentation and lateral melting have received particular attention in recent years. The impact of this fragmentation on sea ice dynamics, however, remains mostly unknown, although it is thought that fragmented sea ice experiences less resistance to deformation than pack ice. Here, we introduce a new coupled framework involving the spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III and the sea ice model neXtSIM, which includes a Maxwell-Elasto Brittle rheology. We use this coupled modelling system to investigate the potential impact of wave-induced sea ice fragmentation on sea ice dynamics. Focusing on the Barents Sea, we find that the decrease of the internal stress of sea ice resulting from its fragmentation by waves results in a more dynamical MIZ, in particular in areas where sea ice is compact. Sea ice drift is enhanced for both on-ice and off-ice wind conditions. Our results stress the importance of considering wave–sea-ice interactions for forecast applications. They also suggest that waves likely modulate the area of sea ice that is advected away from the pack by ocean (sub-)mesoscale eddies near the ice edge, potentially contributing to the observed past, current and future sea ice cover decline in the Arctic.

scholarly journals Subsurface ocean flywheel of coupled climate variability in the Barents Sea hotspot of global warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pawel Schlichtholz
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Subsurface Ocean ◽  
Recent Climate

Abstract Accelerated shrinkage of the Arctic sea ice cover is the main reason for the recent Arctic amplification of global warming. There is growing evidence that the ocean is involved in this phenomenon, but to what extent remains unknown. Here, a unique dataset of hydrographic profiles is used to infer the regional pattern of recent subsurface ocean warming and construct a skillful predictor for surface climate variability in the Barents Sea region - a hotspot of the recent climate change. It is shown that, in the era of satellite observations (1981–2018), summertime temperature anomalies of Atlantic water heading for the Arctic Ocean explain more than 80% of the variance of the leading mode of variability in the following winter sea ice concentration over the entire Northern Hemisphere, with main centers of action just in the Barents Sea region. Results from empirical forecast experiments demonstrate that predictability of the wintertime sea ice cover in the Barents Sea from subsurface ocean heat anomalies might have increased since the Arctic climate shift of the mid-2000s. In contrast, the corresponding predictability of the sea ice cover in the nearby Greenland Sea has been lost.

scholarly journals Climate change and heat exchange between atmosphere and ocean in the Arctic based on data from the Barents and the Kara sea

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (3) ◽  
pp. 280-292
Author(s):  
G. V. Surkova ◽  
V. A. Romanenko
Keyword(s):  
Heat Exchange ◽  
Energy Exchange ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Kara Sea ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Turbulent Heat Exchange ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Barents And Kara Seas

The paper investigates the current regime of turbulent heat exchange with the atmosphere over the Barents and Kara Seas, as well as its spatial, seasonal and temporal variability (1979–2018). It is shown that over the past decades, the areas of the location of the centers of maximum energy exchange between the sea surface and the atmosphere have not changed significantly in comparison with the middle and second half of the XX century. It was revealed that the greatest seasonal and synoptic variability of heat fluxes is typical of the central and western parts of the Barents Sea. It was found that both indicators of variability in the cold season are 2–5 and more times higher than in the warm season, and the spatial heterogeneity of the indicators of variability in winter is about twice as large as in summer. Quantitative estimates have shown that, within the Barents Sea, the spatial variability of fluxes in winter may be 5–10 times or more higher than the summer values. Above the Kara Sea, the greatest heterogeneity in the fluxes field is typical of the autumn and early winter seasons. It has been found that the annual sums of heat fluxes from the surface of the Barents Sea exceed the values for the Kara Sea, on average, 3–4 and 5–6 times, for sensible and latent heat fluxes, respectively, and in some years may differ tens of times. For the period under study, a single trend of the integral fluxes over the water area and their annual magnitude is not expressed, although there are multi-year decadal fluctuations. It is shown that, despite the significant difference in the thermal regime of the Barents and Kara seas and the lower atmosphere above them, the interannual changes in the total turbulent flows are quite well synchronized, which indicates the commonality of large-scale hydrometeorological processes in these seas, which affect the energy exchange between the seas and the atmosphere.

scholarly journals Arctic sea ice area in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate model ensembles – variability and change

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1077-1131 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. A. Semenov ◽  
T. Martin ◽  
L. K. Behrens ◽  
M. Latif
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract. The shrinking Arctic sea ice cover observed during the last decades is probably the clearest manifestation of ongoing climate change. While climate models in general reproduce the sea ice retreat in the Arctic during the 20th century and simulate further sea ice area loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic forcing, the models suffer from large biases and the model results exhibit considerable spread. The last generation of climate models from World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), when compared to the previous CMIP3 model ensemble and considering the whole Arctic, were found to be more consistent with the observed changes in sea ice extent during the recent decades. Some CMIP5 models project strongly accelerated (non-linear) sea ice loss during the first half of the 21st century. Here, complementary to previous studies, we compare results from CMIP3 and CMIP5 with respect to regional Arctic sea ice change. We focus on September and March sea ice. Sea ice area (SIA) variability, sea ice concentration (SIC) variability, and characteristics of the SIA seasonal cycle and interannual variability have been analysed for the whole Arctic, termed Entire Arctic, Central Arctic and Barents Sea. Further, the sensitivity of SIA changes to changes in Northern Hemisphere (NH) averaged temperature is investigated and several important dynamical links between SIA and natural climate variability involving the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sea level pressure gradient (SLPG) in the western Barents Sea opening serving as an index of oceanic inflow to the Barents Sea are studied. The CMIP3 and CMIP5 models not only simulate a coherent decline of the Arctic SIA but also depict consistent changes in the SIA seasonal cycle and in the aforementioned dynamical links. The spatial patterns of SIC variability improve in the CMIP5 ensemble, particularly in summer. Both CMIP ensembles depict a significant link between the SIA and NH temperature changes. Our analysis suggests that, on average, the sensitivity of SIA to external forcing is enhanced in the CMIP5 models. The Arctic SIA variability response to anthropogenic forcing is different in CMIP3 and CMIP5. While the CMIP3 models simulate increased variability in March and September, the CMIP5 ensemble shows the opposite tendency. A noticeable improvement in the simulation of summer SIA by the CMIP5 models is often accompanied by worse results for winter SIA characteristics. The relation between SIA and mean AMOC changes is opposite in September and March, with March SIA changes being positively correlated with AMOC slowing. Finally, both CMIP ensembles demonstrate an ability to capture, at least qualitatively, important dynamical links of SIA to decadal variability of the AMOC, NAO and SLPG. SIA in the Barents Sea is strongly overestimated by the majority of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models, and projected SIA changes are characterized by a large spread giving rise to high uncertainty.

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