scholarly journals The influence of school holiday timing on epidemic impact

2013 ◽  
Vol 142 (9) ◽  
pp. 1963-1971 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. T. D. EAMES
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Influenza Epidemic ◽  
Final Size ◽  
Peak Incidence ◽  
Social Mixing ◽  
Mixing Patterns ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYThe impact of reactive school closure on an epidemic is uncertain, since it is not clear how an unplanned closure will affect social mixing patterns. The effect of school holidays on social mixing patterns is better understood. Here, we use mathematical models to explore the influence of the timing of school holidays on the final size and peak incidence of an influenza-like epidemic. A well-timed holiday can reduce the impact of an epidemic, in particular substantially reducing an epidemic's peak. Final size and peak incidence cannot both be minimized: a later holiday is optimal for minimizing the final size, while an earlier holiday minimizes peak incidence. Using social mixing data from the UK, we estimated that, had the 2009 influenza epidemic not been interrupted by the school summer holidays, the final size would have been about 20% larger and the peak about 170% higher.

How did Autistic Children, and their Parents, Experience School Transition during the COVID-19 Pandemic?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aimee Code ◽  
Umar Toseeb ◽  
Kathryn Asbury ◽  
Laura Fox
Keyword(s):  
School Transition ◽  
School Closure ◽  
School Transitions ◽  
Autistic Children ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
New School ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and resultant school closures, social distancing measures, and restrictions placed on routine activities, the start of the academic year in September 2020 was a unique time for those transitioning to a new school. This study aimed to explore the experiences of parents who supported autistic children making a school transition in 2020, and to examine what impact parents perceived the COVID-19 pandemic had on their child’s school transition. Emphasis was placed on identifying facilitating factors that had benefitted school transitions, and barriers, which had negatively impacted these experiences. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with 13 parents of autistic children in the UK. Reflexive thematic analysis was carried out to identify themes in interview data. Parents reported a variety of experiences, and factors that were perceived as facilitatory to some were observed to be barriers by others. For some parents, the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted aspects of school transitions. For example, school closure in March 2020, being unable to visit their child’s new school, and social distancing measures were discussed as being barriers to an easy transition. However, other parents identified these factors as being facilitatory for their child or reported that these circumstances created opportunities to approach the school transition in a unique, improved manner. This paper sheds light on the heterogeneity of experiences and perceptions of parents of autistic children, and highlights the need to examine the impact of COVID-19 on school transitions, including practices which may be advantageous to retain.

scholarly journals Reopening Schools during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Overview and Rapid Systematic Review of Guidelines and Recommendations on Preventive Measures and the Management of Cases

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (23) ◽  
pp. 8839
Author(s):  
Giuseppina Lo Moro ◽  
Tiziana Sinigaglia ◽  
Fabrizio Bert ◽  
Armando Savatteri ◽  
Maria Rosaria Gualano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Rapid Review ◽  
European Region ◽  
Return To School ◽  
Ministry Of Education ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Guidelines And Recommendations ◽  
The Impact

Given the limited evidence of school closure effectiveness in containing the pandemic and the consequences for young people, reopening schools with appropriate measures is essential. This overview aimed to describe the main measures planned for the 2020–2021 academic year within the WHO European Region. A rapid systematic review of scientific databases was also performed. The websites of the government, Ministry of Health, and Ministry of Education of European Region countries were searched through 1 October for official documents about the prevention and management of suspected cases/confirmed cases in primary and secondary schools. To find further suggestions, a rapid systematic review was conducted through 20 October searching Pubmed, Scopus, and Embase. There were 23 official documents. France, Luxembourg, Malta, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, the UK, Spain, and San Marino were considered. Performing the rapid review, 855 records were identified and 7 papers were finally selected. The recommendations mostly agreed. However, there was no consensus on the criteria for the return to school of students that tested positive, and the flexibility between attendance at school and remote education for high-risk children often varied. School closure was commonly considered as the very last resort for COVID-19 control. Studies are required to evaluate the impact of different recommendations during this autumn term.

scholarly journals Close contact infection dynamics over time: insights from a second large-scale social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, in 2010-2011

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thang Van Hoang ◽  
Pietro Coletti ◽  
Yimer Wasihun Kiffe ◽  
Kim Van Kerckhove ◽  
Sarah Vercruysse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Social Mixing ◽  
Mixing Patterns ◽  
Contact Survey ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundIn 2010-2011, we conducted a social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, aimed at improving and extending the design of the first social contact survey conducted in Belgium in 2006. This second social contact survey aimed to enable, for the first time, the estimation of social mixing patterns for an age range of 0 to 99 years and the investigation of whether contact rates remain stable over this 5-year time period.MethodsDifferent data mining techniques are used to explore the data, and the age-specific number of social contacts and the age-specific contact rates are modelled using a GAMLSS model. We compare different matrices using assortativeness measures. The relative change in the basic reproduction number (R0) and the ratio of relative incidences with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals (BCI) are employed to investigate and quantify the impact on epidemic spread due to differences in gender, day of the week, holiday vs. regular periods and changes in mixing patterns over the 5-year time gap between the 2006 and 2010-2011 surveys. Finally, we compare the fit of the contact matrices in 2006 and 2010-2011 to Varicella serological data.ResultsAll estimated contact patterns featured strong homophily in age and gender, especially for small children and adolescents. A 30% (95% BCI [17%; 37%] ) and 29% (95% BCI [14%; 40%] ) reduction in R0 was observed for weekend versus weekdays and for holiday versus regular periods, respectively. Significantly more interactions between people aged 60+ years and their grandchildren were observed on holiday and weekend days than on regular weekdays. Comparing contact patterns using different methods did not show any substantial differences over the 5-year time period under study.ConclusionsThe second social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, endorses the findings of its 2006 predecessor and adds important information on the social mixing patterns of people older than 60 years of age. Based on this analysis, the mixing patterns of people older than 60 years exhibit considerable heterogeneity, and overall, the comparison of the two surveys shows that social contact rates can be assumed stable in Flanders over a time span of 5 years.

scholarly journals Optimising social mixing strategies achieving COVID-19 herd immunity while minimising mortality in six European countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romain Ragonnet ◽  
Guillaume Briffoteaux ◽  
Bridget M. Williams ◽  
Julian Savulescu ◽  
Matthew Segal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Horizon ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
The Past ◽  
Social Mixing ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Related Mortality

AbstractStrategies are needed to minimise the impact of COVID-19 in the medium-to-long term, until safe and effective vaccines can be used. Using a mathematical model in a formal optimisation framework, we identified contact mitigation strategies that minimised COVID-19-related mortality over a time-horizon of 15 months while achieving herd immunity in six or 12 months, in Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the UK. We show that manipulation of social contacts by age can reduce the impact of COVID-19 considerably in the presence of intense transmission. If immunity was persistent, the optimised scenarios would result in herd immunity while causing a number of deaths considerably lower than that observed during the March-April European wave in Belgium, France, Spain and Sweden, whereas the numbers of deaths required to achieve herd immunity would be comparable to somewhat larger that the past epidemics in Italy and the UK. Our results also suggest that countries’ herd immunity thresholds may be considerably lower than first estimated for SARS-CoV-2. If post-infection immunity was short-lived, ongoing contact mitigation would be required to prevent major epidemic resurgence.

scholarly journals A unified activities-based approach to the modelling of viral epidemics and COVID-19 as an illustrative example

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yulii D. Shikhmurzaev ◽  
Vladislav D. Shikhmurzaev
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Clinical Picture ◽  
Simple Mathematical Model ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

AbstractA new approach to formulating mathematical models of increasing complexity to describe the dynamics of viral epidemics is proposed. The approach utilizes a map of social interactions characterizing the population and its activities and, unifying the compartmental and the stochastic viewpoints, offers a framework for incorporating both the patterns of behaviour studied by sociological surveys and the clinical picture of a particular infection, both for the virus itself and the complications it causes. The approach is illustrated by taking a simple mathematical model developed in its framework and applying it to the ongoing pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), with the UK as a representative country, to assess the impact of the measures of social distancing imposed to control its course.

scholarly journals The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lander Willem ◽  
Steven Abrams ◽  
Pieter J. K. Libin ◽  
Pietro Coletti ◽  
Elise Kuylen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Scenario Analyses ◽  
Social Mixing ◽  
Optimal Deployment ◽  
Mixing Patterns ◽  
Complete Contact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions. A controlled and persistent release of lockdown measures covers many potential strategies and is subject to extensive scenario analyses. Here, we use an individual-based model (STRIDE) to simulate interactions between 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at different levels including extended household settings, i.e., “household bubbles”. The burden of COVID-19 is impacted by both the intensity and frequency of physical contacts, and therefore, household bubbles have the potential to reduce hospital admissions by 90%. In addition, we find that it is crucial to complete contact tracing 4 days after symptom onset. Assumptions on the susceptibility of children affect the impact of school reopening, though we find that business and leisure-related social mixing patterns have more impact on COVID-19 associated disease burden. An optimal deployment of the mitigation policies under study require timely compliance to physical distancing, testing and self-isolation.

scholarly journals The impact of relaxing interventions on human contact patterns and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (19) ◽  
pp. eabe2584
Author(s):  
Juanjuan Zhang ◽  
Maria Litvinova ◽  
Yuxia Liang ◽  
Wen Zheng ◽  
Huilin Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
School Closure ◽  
School Interventions ◽  
Community Activities ◽  
Human Contact ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Social Mixing ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
The Impact

Nonpharmaceutical interventions to control SARS-CoV-2 spread have been implemented with different intensity, timing, and impact on transmission. As a result, post-lockdown COVID-19 dynamics are heterogeneous and difficult to interpret. We describe a set of contact surveys performed in four Chinese cities (Wuhan, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Changsha) during the pre-pandemic, lockdown and post-lockdown periods to quantify changes in contact patterns. In the post-lockdown period, the mean number of contacts increased by 5 to 17% as compared to the lockdown period. However, it remains three to seven times lower than its pre-pandemic level sufficient to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We find that the impact of school interventions depends nonlinearly on the intensity of other activities. When most community activities are halted, school closure leads to a 77% decrease in the reproduction number; in contrast, when social mixing outside of schools is at pre-pandemic level, school closure leads to a 5% reduction in transmission.

scholarly journals Close contact infection dynamics over time: insights from a second large-scale social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, in 2010-2011

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thang Van Hoang ◽  
Pietro Coletti ◽  
Yimer Wasihun Kifle ◽  
Kim Van Kerckhove ◽  
Sarah Vercruysse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Close Contact ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Social Mixing ◽  
Mixing Patterns ◽  
Contact Survey ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background In 2010-2011, we conducted a social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, aimed at improving and extending the design of the first social contact survey conducted in Belgium in 2006. This second social contact survey aimed to enable, for the first time, the estimation of social mixing patterns for an age range of 0 to 99 years and the investigation of whether contact rates remain stable over this 5-year time period. Methods Different data mining techniques are used to explore the data, and the age-specific number of social contacts and the age-specific contact rates are modelled using a generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) model. We compare different matrices using assortativeness measures. The relative change in the basic reproduction number (R0) and the ratio of relative incidences with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals (BCI) are employed to investigate and quantify the impact on epidemic spread due to differences in sex, day of the week, holiday vs. regular periods and changes in mixing patterns over the 5-year time gap between the 2006 and 2010-2011 surveys. Finally, we compare the fit of the contact matrices in 2006 and 2010-2011 to Varicella serological data. Results All estimated contact patterns featured strong homophily in age and sex, especially for small children and adolescents. A 30% (95% BCI [17%; 37%]) and 29% (95% BCI [14%; 40%]) reduction in R0 was observed for weekend versus weekdays and for holiday versus regular periods, respectively. Significantly more interactions between people aged 60+ years and their grandchildren were observed on holiday and weekend days than on regular weekdays. Comparing contact patterns using different methods did not show any substantial differences over the 5-year time period under study. Conclusions The second social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, endorses the findings of its 2006 predecessor and adds important information on the social mixing patterns of people older than 60 years of age. Based on this analysis, the mixing patterns of people older than 60 years exhibit considerable heterogeneity, and overall, the comparison of the two surveys shows that social contact rates can be assumed stable in Flanders over a time span of 5 years.

scholarly journals Modelling the SARS-CoV-2 first epidemic wave in Greece: social contact patterns for impact assessment and an exit strategy from social distancing measures

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vana Sypsa ◽  
Sotirios Roussos ◽  
Dimitrios Paraskevis ◽  
Theodore Lytras ◽  
S Sotirios Tsiodras ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Social Mixing ◽  
Mixing Patterns ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemic Wave

AbstractIn Greece, a nationwide lockdown to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was imposed on March 23, 2020. As by the end of April the first epidemic wave is waning, it is important to assess the infection attack rate and quantify the impact of physical distancing. We implemented a survey to assess social mixing patterns before the epidemic and during lockdown. We estimated R0 from surveillance data and assessed its decline as a result of physical distancing based on social contacts data. We applied a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model to estimate the infection attack rate and the infection fatality ratio (IFR). As multiple social distancing measures were implemented simultaneously (schools/work/leisure), we assessed their overall impact as well as their relative contribution. R0 was estimated 2·38 (95%CI: 2·01,2·80). By April 26th, the infection attack rate was 0·12% (95%CrI: 0·06%,0·26%) and the IFR 1·12% (95%CrI: 0·55%,2·31%). During lockdown, daily contacts were reduced by 86·9% and the effective reproduction number reached 0·46 (95%CrI: 0·35,0·57). The reduction in R0 attributed to lockdown was 81·0% (95%CrI: 71·8%,86·0%) whereas the reduction attributed to each measure separately ranged between 10%-24%. We assessed scenarios with less disruptive social distancing measures as well as scenarios where measures are partially lifted after lockdown. This is the first impact assessment of the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 in a European country. It suggests that only multiple measures implemented simultaneously could reduce R0 below 1. Measuring social mixing patterns can be a tool for real-time monitoring of the epidemic potential.

scholarly journals Assortative social mixing and sex disparities in tuberculosis burden

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Debebe Shaweno ◽  
Katherine C. Horton ◽  
Richard J. Hayes ◽  
Peter J. Dodd
Keyword(s):  
Time Frame ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Social Mixing ◽  
Sex Disparities ◽  
Mixing Patterns ◽  
Fully Bayesian ◽  
Sex Disparity ◽  
Notification Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

AbstractGlobally, men have higher tuberculosis (TB) burden but the mechanisms underlying this sex disparity are not fully understood. Recent surveys of social mixing patterns have established moderate preferential within-sex mixing in many settings. This assortative mixing could amplify differences from other causes. We explored the impact of assortative mixing and factors differentially affecting disease progression and detection using a sex-stratified deterministic TB transmission model. We explored the influence of assortativity at disease-free and endemic equilibria, finding stronger effects during invasion and on increasing male:female prevalence (M:F) ratios than overall prevalence. Variance-based sensitivity analysis of endemic equilibria identified differential progression as the most important driver of M:F ratio uncertainty. We fitted our model to prevalence and notification data in exemplar settings within a fully Bayesian framework. For our high M:F setting, random mixing reduced equilibrium M:F ratios by 12% (95% CrI 0–30%). Equalizing male case detection there led to a 20% (95% CrI 11–31%) reduction in M:F ratio over 10 years—insufficient to eliminate sex disparities. However, this potentially achievable improvement was associated with a meaningful 8% (95% CrI 4–14%) reduction in total TB prevalence over this time frame.

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