scholarly journals Planning chemotherapy based schistosomiasis control: validation of a mathematical model using data on Schistosoma haematobium from Pemba, Tanzania

1999 ◽  
Vol 123 (3) ◽  
pp. 487-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.-S. CHAN ◽  
A. MONTRESOR ◽  
L. SAVIOLI ◽  
D. A. P. BUNDY
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Control Programme ◽  
School Level ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Urinary Schistosomiasis ◽  
Control Programmes ◽  
United Republic Of Tanzania ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

A mathematical model, based on a deterministic differential equation framework, has been developed to predict the impact of community chemotherapy programmes for human schistosomiasis. Here, this model is validated using data collected from a long-term control programme for urinary schistosomiasis on the island of Pemba, Zanzibar, United Republic of Tanzania, initiated in 1986 and still ongoing, in which schoolchildren were offered praziquantel chemotherapy every 6 months. Prevalence of infection and blood in urine were monitored in all the schools (total 26000 children from 60 schools) and more detailed data were collected in selected evaluation schools. Model predictions were run by using the initial prevalence as input. The predictions were very close to the observed decreases in prevalence and in prevalence of blood in urine. The correspondence improved further when the data were combined, going from single school level to district, and when the entire data set was combined. The accuracy of the predictions suggests that this model could be used as a tool to predict the consequences of chemotherapy control programmes. It is currently in press as a Windows software package under the name of ‘EpiSchisto’.

Evaluation of a mathematical model of diabetes progression against observations in the Diabetes Prevention Program

2012 ◽  
Vol 303 (2) ◽  
pp. E200-E212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Hardy ◽  
Eyas Abu-Raddad ◽  
Niels Porksen ◽  
Andrea De Gaetano
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Prevention Program ◽  
Diabetes Prevention ◽  
Diabetes Prevention Program ◽  
Diabetes Incidence ◽  
Cell Protection ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Diabetes Progression ◽  
The Impact

The seminal publication of the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) results in 2002 has provided insight into the impact of major therapies on the development of diabetes over a time span of a few years. In the present work, the publicly available DPP data set is used to calibrate and evaluate a recently developed mechanistic mathematical model for the long-term development of diabetes to assess the model's ability to predict the natural history of disease progression and the effectiveness of preventive interventions. A general population is generated from which virtual subject samples corresponding to the DPP enrollment criteria are selected. The model is able to reproduce with good fidelity the observed time courses of both diabetes incidence and average glycemia, under realistic hypotheses on evolution of disease and efficacy of the studied therapies, for all treatment arms. Model-based simulations of the long-term evolution of the disease are consistent with the transient benefits observed with conventional therapies and with promising effects of radical improvement of insulin sensitivity (as by metabolic surgery) or of β-cell protection. The mechanistic diabetes progression model provides a credible tool by which long-term implications of antidiabetic interventions can be evaluated.

scholarly journals Fox control and rock-wallaby population dynamics — II. An update

1998 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 81 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. E. Kinnear ◽  
M. L. Onus ◽  
Neil R. Sumner
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Control Programme ◽  
Principal Factor ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Control Programmes ◽  
Conservation Authorities ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fox Control ◽  
Western Australian

Five remnant populations of rock-wallabies (Petrogale lateralis) in the Western Australian wheatbelt have been the subjects of an experiment designed to assess the impact of fox predation on the population dynamics of this species. The effect of a fox-control programme, initiated in 1982 at two rock-wallaby sites, was first assessed in 1986 along with three other sites not subject to fox control. It was concluded that fox predation was the principal factor limiting the size and distribution of P. lateralis populations. In 1990 after a further four years of fox control, the experiment was reassessed and a comprehensive statistical analysis of the data set confirmed this conclusion. These results reinforce the need for conservation authorities across Australia to implement fox-control programmes to assure the survival of rock-wallaby populations (and other likewise-threatened species).

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of COVID-19-related control programme interruptions on progress towards the WHO 2030 target for soil-transmitted helminths

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veronica Malizia ◽  
Federica Giardina ◽  
Carolin Vegvari ◽  
Sumali Bajaj ◽  
Kevin McRae-McKee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neglected Tropical Diseases ◽  
Control Programme ◽  
Mitigation Strategy ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Preventive Chemotherapy ◽  
Soil Transmitted Helminths ◽  
Individual Based Models ◽  
Control Programmes ◽  
Catch Up ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background On 1 April 2020, the WHO recommended an interruption of all activities for the control of neglected tropical diseases, including soil-transmitted helminths (STH), in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper investigates the impact of this disruption on the progress towards the WHO 2030 target for STH. Methods We used two stochastic individual-based models to simulate the impact of missing one or more preventive chemotherapy (PC) rounds in different endemicity settings. We also investigated the extent to which this impact can be lessened by mitigation strategies, such as semiannual or community-wide PC. Results Both models show that without a mitigation strategy, control programmes will catch up by 2030, assuming that coverage is maintained. The catch-up time can be up to 4.5 y after the start of the interruption. Mitigation strategies may reduce this time by up to 2 y and increase the probability of achieving the 2030 target. Conclusions Although a PC interruption will only temporarily impact the progress towards the WHO 2030 target, programmes are encouraged to restart as soon as possible to minimise the impact on morbidity. The implementation of suitable mitigation strategies can turn the interruption into an opportunity to accelerate progress towards reaching the target.

scholarly journals Looking Beyond the Household: The Importance of School Factors in Understanding Elementary Grade Retention in Rural Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bushra Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Student Performance ◽  
Grade Retention ◽  
Retention Rate ◽  
Retention Rates ◽  
School Level ◽  
School Factors ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ◽  
The Impact

This paper contributes to the limited literature on the educational outcomes of children in rural Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Pakistan. It explores the impact of school-level factors such as physical resources, teachers and school characteristics on retention to the last grade of primary in the KP province for the time period 2007-12. Two sources of data were used to measure the retention rates. One of which is an official compilation of institutional data on education known as Education Management Information System (EMIS). The second data source, Annual Status of Education Reports (ASER), is a household data set with a rich set of household covariates, teachers’ characteristics and student performance data on reading and mathematics. The results from regression analyses indicate that children are more likely to complete primary education cycle when they receive instructions in local language and when the pupil-teacher ratio is below a certain threshold. Results also reveal that a continuous increase in school size beyond a certain threshold (> 400 enrollment) is related to a decrease in retention rate. Further, mixed schools (all-boys’ schools having girls enrolled in them) were found to have better retention rates than boys’ schools.

scholarly journals Effects of agricultural credit on wheat productivity of small farms in Sindh, Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol 78 (5) ◽  
pp. 592-610 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheng Jiang ◽  
Feng Wei ◽  
Xu Guangshun
Keyword(s):  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Considerable Proportion ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Small Farms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Agricultural Credit ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of short-term loan (STL) vs long-term loan (LTL) on wheat productivity of small farms in Sindh, Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach The econometric estimation is based on cross-sectional data collected in 2016 from 18 villages in three districts, i.e. Shikarpur, Sukkur and Shaheed Benazirabad, Sindh, Pakistan. The sample data set consist of 180 wheat farmers. The collected data were analyzed through different econometric techniques like Cobb–Douglas production function and Instrumental variables (two-stage least squares) approach. Findings This study reconfirmed that agricultural credit has a positive and highly significant effect on wheat productivity, while the short-term loan has a stronger effect on wheat productivity than the long-term loan. The reasons behind the phenomenon may be the significantly higher usage of agricultural inputs like seeds of improved variety and fertilizers which can be transformed into the wheat yield in the same year. However, the LTL users have significantly higher investments in land preparation, irrigation and plant protection, which may lead to higher wheat production in the coming years. Research limitations/implications In the present study, only those wheat farmers were considered who obtained agricultural loans from formal financial institutions like Zarai Taraqiati Bank Limited and Khushhali Bank. However, in the rural areas of Sindh, Pakistan, a considerable proportion of small-scale farmers take credit from informal financial channels. Therefore future researchers should consider the informal credits as well. Originality/value This is the first paper to examine the effects of agricultural credit on wheat productivity of small farms in Sindh, Pakistan. This paper will be an important addition to the emerging literature regarding effects of credit studies.

The impact of farmer and veterinary surgeon concordance on the effectiveness of a lameness control programme for primiparous dairy heifers

2007 ◽  
Vol 2007 ◽  
pp. 194-194
Author(s):  
N.J. Bell ◽  
M.J. Bell ◽  
T.G. Knowles ◽  
A.J.F. Webster
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Control Programme ◽  
Complex Interaction ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Detailed Understanding ◽  
Dairy Heifers ◽  
Control Programmes ◽  
Veterinary Surgeon ◽  
Foot Lesions ◽  
The Impact

Lameness in dairy cattle is a multifactorial problem involving a complex interaction of stockperson, environmental and animal-related hazards. With over 100 potential hazards for lameness, and a multiplicity of control measures arising from each of these hazards, decision making for intervention programmes can be complex. Furthermore, control of foot lesions such as digital dermatitis and claw horn disease may require a detailed understanding of veterinary pathogenesis and epidemiology. Therefore, in order for lameness control programmes to be effective, veterinary involvement may be necessary. This paper examines effect of vet and farmer attitude towards a lameness control programme for primiparous dairy heifers on lameness prevalence.

scholarly journals A Systematic Review of Recommendations of Long-Term Strategies for Researchers Using Data Science Techniques

Computers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 35
Author(s):  
Gilberto Ayala-Bastidas ◽  
Hector G. Ceballos ◽  
Francisco J. Cantu-Ortiz
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Process Mining ◽  
Research Strategies ◽  
Scientific Content ◽  
Open Research ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact

The impact of the strategies that researchers follow to publish or produce scientific content can have a long-term impact. Identifying which strategies are most influential in the future has been attracting increasing attention in the literature. In this study, we present a systematic review of recommendations of long-term strategies in research analytics and their implementation methodologies. The objective is to present an overview from 2002 to 2018 on the development of this topic, including trends, and addressed contexts. The central objective is to identify data-oriented approaches to learn long-term research strategies, especially in process mining. We followed a protocol for systematic reviews for the engineering area in a structured and respectful manner. The results show the need for studies that generate more specific recommendations based on data mining. This outcome leaves open research opportunities from two particular perspectives—applying methodologies involving process mining for the context of research analytics and the feasibility study on long-term strategies using data science techniques.

The colonial exports pattern, institutions and current economic performance

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tania El Kallab ◽  
Cristina Terra
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
French Colonies ◽  
Colonial Institutions ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper explores the role of colonial heritage on long-term economic development from a resource-curse perspective. The authors investigate the impact of colonial exports on long-term economic development through two channels: (1) a direct impact of the economic dependency on natural resources and (2) an indirect impact via its effect on colonial institutions, which persisted over time and influenced current economic development.Design/methodology/approachTo address this issue, the authors use an original data set on French bilateral trade from 1880 to 1912. The authors use partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) in the empirical analysis, so that the authors are able to construct latent variables (LVs) for variables that are not directly observable, such as the quality of institutions.FindingsThe authors find that exports of primary goods to France had a negative impact on colonial institutions and that for French colonies, this impact was driven by minerals exports. Despite its impact on colonial institutions, exports of French colonies had no significant indirect impact on their current institutions. The authors find no significant direct impact of colonial trade on current development for French colonies. Finally, colonial exports of manufactured products had no significant impact on colonial institutions among French colonies and a positive impact among non-French ones.Research limitations/implicationsResearch implications regarding the findings of this paper are, namely, that the relative poor performance within French colonies today cannot be attributed to the extraction of raw materials a century ago. However, human capital and institutional development, instead of exports, are more relatively important for long-term growth. Some limitations in trying to determine the simultaneous relationship among colonial trade, institutions and economic performance are the relation between colonial trade and the extent of extraction from the colonizer, which is hard to quantify, as well as its precise mechanism.Practical implicationsSince the initial institutions set in those former colonies presented a strong persistence in the long run, their governments should focus now on building sound and inclusive political and economic institutions, as well as on investing in human capital in order to foster long-term growth. Once a comprehensive set of institutional and human resources are put in place, the quality and quantity of exports might create a positive spillover on the short-run growth.Social implicationsOne social implication that can be retrieved from this study is the ever-lasting effect of both human capital investment and introduction of inclusive political and economic institutions on the long-run impact of growth.Originality/valueThe paper uses an original primary data set from archival sources to explore the role of colonial heritage on long-term economic development from a resource-curse perspective. It applies a relatively new model partial least squares path modeling (PLS-PM) that allows the construction of LVs for variables that are not directly observable, as well as channeling the impact on growth through both direct and indirect channels. Finally, it allows for the simultaneous multigroup analysis across different colonial groups.

Terrorism and tourism in Israel

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 1343-1352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Karl ◽  
Gordon Winder ◽  
Alexander Bauer
Keyword(s):  
Time Lag ◽  
Research Model ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Event Tourism ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Terrorist Event ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

While the relation between terrorism and tourism has been an important topic for tourism research, the questions whether terrorism affects tourism immediately and how long after a terrorism event tourism recovers are, as yet, not clearly answered. The aim of this article is to better understand the magnitude and temporal scale of the impact of terrorism on tourism. To this end, a research model differentiating between short-term and long-term effects of terrorism on tourism is developed and analyzed for the destination Israel using data on tourists from Germany. The results show both short-term and long-term impacts with a time lag between the terrorist event and the beginning of tourism decline of 1 or up to 6 months. An economic influence on the development of tourist arrivals was not detected, but seasonality plays an important role in the relationship between terrorism and tourism.

Estimated Effect of the Teacher Advancement Program on Student Test Score Gains

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew G. Springer ◽  
Dale Ballou ◽  
Art (Xiao) Peng
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Effect ◽  
Test Score ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Third Party ◽  
School Level ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Teacher Advancement Program ◽  
Student Test ◽  
The Impact

This article presents findings from the first independent, third-party appraisal of the impact of the Teacher Advancement Program (TAP) on student test score gains in mathematics. TAP is a comprehensive school reform model designed to attract highly effective teachers, improve instructional effectiveness, and elevate student achievement. We use a panel data set to estimate a TAP treatment effect by comparing student test score gains in mathematics in schools that participated in TAP with student test score gains in non-TAP schools. Ordinary least squares estimation reveals a positive TAP treatment effect on student test score gains in the elementary grades, with weaker but still positive point estimates in the secondary grades. When estimation methods control for selection bias, the positive effect remains at the elementary level, but most estimates for grades 6 through 10 turn negative. Our findings are qualified by the lack of information on the fidelity of implementation across TAP schools and on variation in features of TAP programs at the school level.

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