What every mathematician should know about modelling crime

2010 ◽  
Vol 21 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 275-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARCUS FELSON
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Data Modelling

This paper by a criminologist explains why it makes more sense to model criminal acts than to model criminals, how many preconceptions about crime can mislead modellers and offers some simple crime modelling ideas. Many opportunities for simulation now exist, and new opportunities for real-data modelling are emerging. The author suggests mathematical models of crime, including offender foraging for crime targets, as a rich area for future research.

scholarly journals A Survey and Perspectives on Mathematical Models for Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Using Lightning

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Carlos Manuel Minjarez-Sosa ◽  
Julio Waissman
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Future Research ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Simple Observation ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Cloud To Ground Lightning ◽  
Electrically Charged

Lightning is one of the most spectacular phenomena in nature. It is produced when there is a breakdown in the resistance in the electric field between the ground and an electrically charged cloud. By simple observation, we observe that precipitation, especially the most intense, is often accompanied by lightning. Given this observation, lightning has been employed to estimate convective precipitation since 1969. In early studies, mathematical models were deduced to quantify this relationship and used to estimate precipitation. Currently, the use of several techniques to estimate precipitation is gaining momentum, and lightning is one of the novel techniques to complement the traditional techniques for Quantitative Precipitation Estimation. In this paper, the authors provide a survey of the mathematical methods employed to estimate precipitation through the use of cloud-to-ground lightning. We also offer a perspective on the future research to this end.

scholarly journals Study of the forecasting problem of energy consumption of water pumping station

2019 ◽  
Vol 102 ◽  
pp. 03001
Author(s):  
Aleksandr V. Alekseev
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Wholesale Market ◽  
Pumping Station ◽  
Water Pumping ◽  
Object Properties ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
City Water

The article describes the study of the energy consumption forecasting of city water pumping station. The review of the existing approaches for technical systems energy consumption forecasting is made. The shot description of the studied object properties including hourly energy consumption is presented. Two often used forecasting methods exponential smoothing and the autoregression of the integrated moving average methods was tested on real data. The results of predict calculations shows that the autoregression of the integrated moving average methods is suitable for energy consumption planning and can be used to submit an hourly bid for the required amount of the electricity in the wholesale market. Directions for future research is also presented.

Mathematical Models to Discriminate Between Benign and Malignant Adnexal Masses: Potential Diagnostic Improvement Using Ovarian HistoScanning

2011 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evelien Vaes ◽  
Ranjit Manchanda ◽  
Rina Nir ◽  
Dror Nir ◽  
Harry Bleiberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Diagnostic Value ◽  
Ca 125 ◽  
Transvaginal Sonography ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Initial Report ◽  
Adnexal Masses

Purpose:Accurate preoperative clinical assessment of adnexal masses can optimize outcomes by ensuring appropriate and timely surgery. This article addresses whether a new technology, ovarian HistoScanning, has an additional diagnostic value in mathematical models developed for the differential diagnosis of adnexal masses.Patients and Methods:Transvaginal sonography-based morphological variables were obtained through blinded analysis of archived images in 199 women enrolled in a prospective study to assess the performance of ovarian HistoScanning. Logistic regression (LR) and neural network (NN) models including these variables and clinical and patient data along with the HistoScanning score (HSS) (range, 0-125; based on mathematical algorithms) were developed in a learning set (60% patients). The remaining 40% patients (evaluation set) were used to assess model performance.Results:Of all morphological and clinical variables tested, serum CA-125, presence of a solid component, and HSS were most significant and used to develop the LR model. The NN model included all variables. The novel variable, HSS, offered significant improvement in the LR and NN models' performance. The LR and NN models in an independent evaluation set were found to have area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.97 (95% confidence interval [CI], 94-99) and 0.93 (95% CI, 88-98), sensitivities = 83% (95% CI, 71%-91%) and 80% (95% CI, 67%-89%), and specificities = 98% (95% CI, 89%-99%) and 86% (95% CI, 72%-95%), respectively. In addition, these models showed an improved performance when compared with 3 other existing models (allP< 0.05).Conclusions:This initial report shows a clear benefit of including ovarian HistoScanning into mathematical models used for discriminating benign from malignant ovarian masses. These models may be specifically helpful to the less experienced examiner. Future research should assess performance of these models in prospective clinical trials in different populations.

MODELLING VASCULAR MORPHOGENESIS: CURRENT VIEWS ON BLOOD VESSELS DEVELOPMENT

2009 ◽  
Vol 19 (supp01) ◽  
pp. 1483-1537 ◽  
Author(s):  
MIGUEL Á. HERRERO ◽  
ÁLVARO KÖHN ◽  
JOSÉ M. PÉREZ-POMARES
Keyword(s):  
Blood Vessel ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Structure Function ◽  
Blood Vessels ◽  
Biological Process ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Signalling Molecules ◽  
Vascular Morphogenesis

In this work we present a comprehensive account of our current knowledge on vascular morphogenesis, both from a biological and a mathematical point of view. To this end, we first describe the basic steps in the known mechanisms of blood vessel morphogenesis, whose structure, function and unfolding properties are examined. We then provide a wide, although by no means exhaustive, account of mathematical models which are used to describe and discuss particular aspects of the overall biological process considered. We finally summarize the approaches presented, and suggest possible directions for future research. Details about some of the major signalling molecules involved are included in a first Appendix at the end of the paper. A second Appendix provides a brief overview of design principles for vascular nets, a subject that has deserved considerable attention over the years.

Time modelling in digital humanities. Challenges posed by the development of a database of medieval charters

2016 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guy De Tré ◽  
Jeroen Deploige
Keyword(s):  
Possibility Theory ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Temporal Data ◽  
Data Modelling ◽  
Novel Technology ◽  
Data Querying ◽  
Information Management Systems ◽  
Evaluation Techniques

AbstractInformation management systems aimed at fully exploiting imperfect temporal data require advanced data modelling and data querying facilities. In this paper, we study how novel computational intelligence techniques can help to develop such facilities. More specifically, we describe how possibility theory can be used to model and handle the uncertainty that is inherent to vague, linguistic time specifications in a mathematically sound way. These mathematical time representations can then be stored in a database and advanced query evaluation techniques, for adequately coping with the represented uncertainty, can be used. Medieval charters are a typical example of documents on which related temporal information is often imperfect. To show the applicability of our technology, we illustrate how the development of the Diplomata Belgica database, a database describing medieval charters, can benefit from this novel technology. The added-value of the technology for future research in the humanities, in our case medieval history, is demonstrated by means of several illustrative query examples.

How people react to a deadline: time distribution of conference registrations and fee payments

Open Physics ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentina Alfi ◽  
Andrea Gabrielli ◽  
Luciano Pietronero
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Human Behavior ◽  
Excellent Agreement ◽  
Time Distribution ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Scientific Conference ◽  
Fee Payment

AbstractIn this paper we present two simple mathematical models to describe human behavior in reaction to deadlines. When a real commitment (e.g. money) is involved, as in the case of a payment deadline, the expected reaction is to postpone it as close as possible to the deadline to minimize the risk of loosing the value. For low risk commitments this tendency is still present but expected to be looser. In order to test these predictions in a quantitative way, we performed data analysis for the total number of registrations and fee payments vs. time for the recent scientific conference “Statphys 23”, comparing it with the data of another conference in order to recover universal features. Two related models respectively for registrations (weak engagement) and fee payment (strong engagement) are then introduced which are able to explain in a simple way both behaviors, and which show an excellent agreement with real data.

scholarly journals O papel dos saberes não matemáticos na Modelagem Matemática: o estudo do cálculo do Imposto de Renda The role of non-mathematical knowledge in Mathematical Modeling: the study of the calculation of income tax

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Fernandes Espirito Santo ◽  
Renato Borges Guerra
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Mathematical Knowledge ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Preliminary Results ◽  
Anthropological Theory

Este artigo trata sobre a indispensabilidade de saberes não matemáticos para o uso de modelos matemáticos sobre problemas em contextos concretos a partir de pressupostos da Teoria Antropológica do Didático. O modelo praxeológico misto é proposto como dispositivo metodológico de análise. Análise do modelo do cálculo do Imposto de Renda Pessoa Física em situação demonstra a potencialidade do dispositivo para fazer emergir os saberes não matemáticos que fundamentam os modelos matemáticos sobre contextos concretos. Resultados obtidos preliminares apontam a indispensabilidade dos saberes não matemáticos da situação para o uso pertinente dos modelos matemáticos em situação e encaminham pesquisas futuras. <br>This article addresses the indispensability of non-mathematical knowledge for the use of mathematical models on problems in concrete contexts based on the assumptions of the Anthropological Theory of the Didactic. The Mixed Praxeological Model is proposed as a methodological analysis device. The analysis of the model of the calculation of Personal Income Tax in situation demonstrates the potentiality of the device to emerge the non-mathematical knowledge that base the mathematical models on concrete contexts. Preliminary results indicate the indispensability of the non-mathematical knowledge of the situation for the pertinent use of mathematical models, and forward future research.

scholarly journals Mathematical and Stochastic Growth Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 1576-1582
Author(s):  
V. Pavankumari
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Applied Statistics ◽  
Stochastic Growth ◽  
Research Problems ◽  
Stochastic Growth Models

Abstract: Many statistical and mathematical models of growth are developed in the literature and effectively applied to various conditions in the existent world that involve many research problems in the different fields of applied statistics. Nevertheless, still, there is an equally large number of conditions, which have not yet been mathematically or statistically modeled, due to the complex situations or formed models are mathematically or statistically inflexible. The present study is based on mathematical and stochastic growth models. The specification of both the growth models is depicted. A detailed study of newly modified growth models is mentioned. This research will give substantial information on growth models, such as proposed modified exponential growth models and their specifications clearly motioned which gives scope for future research.

scholarly journals The importance of the human factor during the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: the successful case of the Italian strategy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Scarpazza ◽  
Gianluca Musumeci ◽  
Andrea S. Camperio Ciani
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Adaptive Strategies ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Successful Case ◽  
Threatening Condition ◽  
Life Threatening ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals ◽  
Number Of Individuals

AbstractIn Italy, 311,364 cases and 35,851 deaths of people who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were registered as of September 29th, 2020. To avoid the spreading of the virus, mathematical models predicting the course of infection’s spread1 become the basis to plan stringent countermeasures. We applied a published algorithm to real data up to September 27th, modeling two scenarios where predicted and real data were compared: a conservative scenario with a lockdown still ongoing and a scenario reflecting what actually happened in Italy, where the lockdown has been removed. Results revealed that the number of individuals in life-threatening condition is much lower than predicted, as well as the number of symptomatic individuals. Contrarily, the number of asymptomatic individuals is much higher than predicted. This suggest that human beings are not passive victims, but active fighters able to change the course of the infection creating adaptive strategies against the infection’s spread.

Mathematical models of self-propelled particles

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (06) ◽  
pp. 997-1004 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Bellomo ◽  
F. Brezzi
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
General Framework ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Large Systems

This paper presents the papers published in two special issues devoted to the modeling of large systems of self-propelled particles. The contents of these papers are presented in the general framework of the conceptual analytic difficulties and of the computational problems that are met when dealing with this class of systems. In addition, some perspective ideas on possible objectives of future research are extracted from the contents of this issue and brought to the reader’s attention.

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