Validation of a Belgian Prediction Model for Patient Encounters at Football Mass Gatherings

Author(s):  
Kris Spaepen ◽  
Door Lauwaert ◽  
Leonard Kaufman ◽  
Winne AP Haenen ◽  
Ives Hubloue

Abstract Background: To validate the Belgian Plan Risk Manifestations (PRIMA) model, actual patient presentation rates (PPRs) from Belgium’s largest football stadium were compared with predictions provided by existing models and the Belgian PRIMA model. Methods: Actual patient presentations gathered from 41 football games (2010-2019) played at the King Baudouin Stadium (Brussels, Belgium) were compared with predictions by existing models and the PRIMA model. All attendees who sought medical help from in-event health services (IEHS) in the stadium or called 1-1-2 within the closed perimeter around the stadium were included. Data were analyzed by ANOVA, Pearson correlation tests, and Wilcoxon singed-rank test. Results: A total of 1,630,549 people attended the matches, with 626 people needing first aid. Both the PRIMA and the Hartman model over-estimated the number of patient encounters for each occasion. The Arbon model under-estimated patient encounters for 9.75% (95% CI, 0.49-19.01) of the events. When comparing deviations in predictions between the PRIMA model to the other models, there was a significant difference in the mean deviation (Arbon: Z = −5.566, P <.001, r = −.61; Hartman: Z = −4.245, P <.001, r = .47). Conclusion: When comparing the predicted patient encounters, only the Arbon model under-predicted patient presentations, but the Hartman and the PRIMA models consistently over-predicted. Because of continuous over-prediction, the PRIMA model showed significant differences in mean deviation of predicted PPR. The results of this study suggest that the PRIMA model can be used during planning for domestic and international football matches played at the King Baudouin Stadium, but more data and further research are needed.

Author(s):  
Kris Spaepen ◽  
Geert Arno ◽  
Leonard Kaufman ◽  
Winne Haenen ◽  
Ives Hubloue

Abstract Objective: To compare actual patient presentation rates from Belgium’s largest public open-air cultural festival with predictions provided by existing models and the Belgian Plan Risk Manifestations model. Methods: Retrospectively, actual patient presentation rates gathered from the Ghent Festivities (Belgium) during 2013–2019 were compared to predicted patient presentation rates by the Arbon, Hartman, and PRIMA models. Results: During 7 editions, 8673000 people visited the Ghent Festivities; 9146 sought medical assistance resulting in a mean patient presentation rate (PPR) of 1.05. The PRIMA model overestimated the number of patient encounters for each occasion. The other models had a high rate of underprediction. When comparing deviations in predictions between the PRIMA model to the other models, there is a significant difference in the mean deviation (Arbon: T = 0.000, P < 0.0001, r = −0.8701; Hartman: T = 0.000, P < 0.0001, r = −0.869). Conclusion: Despite the differences between the predictions of all 3 models, our results suggest that the PRIMA model is a valid tool to predict patient presentations to IEHS during public cultural MG. However, to substantiate the PRIMA model even further, more research is needed to further validate the model for a broad range of MG.


2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (5) ◽  
pp. 561-566
Author(s):  
Kris Spaepen ◽  
Winne AP Haenen ◽  
Leonard Kaufman ◽  
Kevin Beens ◽  
Philippe Vandekerckhove ◽  
...  

AbstractIntroduction:A Belgian predictive medical resource tool, Plan Risk Manifestations (PRIMA), for the prediction of the number of patient encounters at mass gatherings (MGs) has recently been developed, in addition to the existing models of Arbon and Hartman. This study presents the results of the validation process for the PRIMA model for music MGs.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted using data gathered from music MGs in the province of Antwerp (Belgium) during the period of 2012-2016. Data from 87 music MGs were used for the study. The forecast of medical resources for these events was determined by entering the characteristics of individual events into the Arbon, Hartman, and PRIMA models. In order to determine if the PRIMA model is under- or over-predictive, the data gathered were retrospectively compared to the predicted number of resources needed using the aforementioned models. Statistical analysis included means, medians, and interquartile ranges (IQRs). Nonparametric related samples test (Wilcoxon Samples Signed Rank Test) for comparison of the median in deviations in predictions of patient presentation rates (PPRs) was performed using SPSS version 23 (IBM Corp.; Armonk, New York USA). Confidence interval levels were set at 95% and results were deemed statistically significant at P <.05. This triple comparison was used to determine the overall performance of all three models.Results:All three models had an acceptable rate of over-prediction of number of patient encounters ([Arbon 25.29%; 95% CI, 30.91-43.74]; [Hartman 29.89%; 95% CI, 57.10-68.90]; and [PRIMA 19.54%; 95% CI, 57.80-76.20]). But all models also had a high rate of under-prediction of number of patient encounters ([Arbon 74.71%; 95% CI, 453.31-752.52]; [Hartman 70.11%; 95% CI, 546.90-873.77]; and [PRIMA 78.16%; 95% CI, 288.91-464.89]). Only the PRIMA model succeeded in the correct prediction of the number of patient encounters on two occasions (2.3%).Conclusion:Results of this study are in-line with existing literature. When comparing the predicted patient encounters, all three models had high rates of under-prediction and moderate rates of over-prediction. When comparing mean deviations, the PRIMA model had the lowest mean deviation of all predicted PPRs. Belgian events of the types included in the presented data may use the PRIMA model with confidence to predict PPRs and estimate the in-event health services (IEHS) requirements.


2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (12) ◽  
pp. 2898-2903 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masoum Khoshfetrat ◽  
Ali Rosom Jalali ◽  
Gholamreza Komeili ◽  
Aliakbar Keykha

Background: Shivering is an undesirable complication following general anesthesia and spinal anesthesia, whose early control can reduce postoperative metabolic and respiratory complications. Therefore, this study aims to compare the effects of prophylactic injection of ketamine and pethidine on postoperative shivering. Methods: This double-blind clinical trial was performed on 105 patients with short-term orthopedic and ENT surgery. The patients were randomly divided into three groups; 20 minutes before the end of the surgery, 0.4 mg/kg of pethidine was injected to the first group, 0.5 mg/kg of ketamine was injected to the second group, and normal saline was injected to the third group. After the surgery, the tympanic membrane temperature was measured at 0, 10, 20, and 30 minutes. The shivering was also measured by a four-point grading from zero (no shivering) to four (severe shivering). Data were analyzed by one-way ANOVA, Kruskal Wallis, Chi-square and Pearson correlation. Results: The mean age of patients was 35.8+/-11.45 years in the ketamine group, 34.8+/-11.64 years in the normal saline group, and 33.11+/-10.5 years in the pethidine group. The one-way ANOVA showed no significant difference in the mean age between the three groups (P=0.645). The incidence and intensity of shivering were significantly higher in the normal saline group than in the ketamine and pethidine groups (p=0.001). However, there was no significant difference in the incidence and the intensity of shivering between the ketamine and the pethidine groups (p=0.936). Conclusion: The results showed that the 0.5 mg/kg of ketamine could control the post-anesthetic shivering.  


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Atefeh Khavid ◽  
Mojgan Sametzadeh ◽  
Mostafa Godiny ◽  
Mohammad Mehdi Moarrefpour

Background and objective: In recent years, cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) has become a key diagnostic tool in dentistry. CBCT can provide 3D images of the maxillofacial area to help dental practitioners in diagnosis and treatment, especially implant placement and treatment of pathogenic lesions. This study aimed to compare the Hounsfield Unit (HU) values obtained from CBCT images for bones of different densities with the corresponding HU values from MDCT images. Materials and methods: cube-shaped bone blocks of identical size were cut from the middle section of the cow ribs and femur area such that they had a layer of cortical bone in their buccal, lingual, and top surfaces and trabecular bone in the middle. MDCT scans were performed using a Somatom Sensation Ct Scanner. After determining HU from the results of these scans, nine suitable specimens from different ranges of HU were chosen for comparison. HU of the CBCT images was computed by the dedicated software of the CBCT machine. Finally, HU values obtained from MDCT and CBCT were compared. Data analysis was performed using SPSS version 25 at the 0.05 significance level. Results: The results showed a statistically significant difference between the mean HU from MDCT images and the mean HU from CBCT images (P<0.05). For similar specimens, CBCT produced higher mean HU values than MDCT. The Pearson correlation test detected a significant direct relationship between the HU values of specimens in MDCT and CBCT (P<0.05). Conclusion: For the tools and software used in this study, there was no significant difference between the HU values obtained from MDCT and CBCT, but the mean HU obtained from CBCT was higher than that from MDCT.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 2325967119S0018
Author(s):  
Neeraj M. Patel ◽  
Christopher R. Gajewski ◽  
Anthony M. Ascoli ◽  
J. Todd Lawrence

Background: The use of a washer to supplement screw fixation can prevent fragmentation and penetration during the surgical treatment of medial epicondyle fractures. However, concerns may arise regarding screw prominence and the need for subsequent implant removal. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of washer utilization on the need for hardware removal and elbow range of motion (ROM). Methods: All surgically-treated pediatric medial epicondyle fractures over a 7-year period were queried for this retrospective case-control study. Patients were only included if their fracture was fixed with a single screw with or without a washer. Per institutional protocol, implants were not routinely removed after fracture healing. Hardware removal was performed only if the patient experienced a complication or implant-related symptoms that were refractory to non-operative management. Full ROM was considered flexion beyond 130 degrees and less than a 10-degree loss of extension. Univariate analysis was followed by creation of Kaplan-Meier (one minus survival) curves in order to analyze the time until full ROM was regained after surgery. Curves between patients with and without a washer were compared with a log rank test. Results: Of the 137 patients included in the study, the mean age was 12.2±2.3 years and 85 (62%) were male. A total of 31 (23%) patients ultimately underwent hardware removal. A washer was utilized in 90 (66%) cases overall. There was not an increased need for subsequent implant removal in these patients compared to those that underwent screw fixation alone (p=0.11). The mean BMI of patients that underwent hardware removal (19.1±2.5) was similar to that of children who did not (20.4±3.5, p=0.06). When analyzing a subgroup of 102 athletes only, there was similarly no difference in the rate of implant removal if a washer was used (p=0.64). Overall, 107 (78%) patients regained full ROM at a mean of 13.9±9.7 weeks after surgery (Figure 1). There was no statistically significant difference in the proportions of patients with and without a washer that achieved full ROM (p=0.46). Full ROM was achieved at a mean of 14.1±11.0 weeks in those with a washer compared to 13.6±6.2 weeks in those without one (p=0.21). Conclusions: Use of a washer did not affect the need for subsequent implant removal or elbow ROM after fixation of pediatric medial epicondyle fractures, even in thinner patients or competitive athletes. If there is concern for fracture fragmentation or penetration, a washer can be included without concern that future unplanned surgeries may be required.


2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrijana Spasovska Vasilova ◽  
Lada Trajcheska ◽  
Mimoza Milenkova ◽  
Aleksandra Canevska ◽  
Angela Kabova ◽  
...  

Abstract Background and Aims Kidney size has been found to be correlated with anthropometric features and is different among different ethnicities. In this study, we used ultrasonography for measurement of kidney volumes in healthy individuals and evaluated the relationships with body height, age and gender. Method We conducted a cross-sectional observational study and evaluated 108 healthy individuals whose serum creatinine level was within reference range. Patients’ medical clinical and laboratory records were reviewed. Age, gender and height were recorded. Pearson correlation coefficients were used to evaluate the strength of association between ultrasonographic parameters with each other and with other parameters, and were expressed as r2. Variations in left and right renal dimensions between various age groups were compared using a one-way analysis of variance, followed by a post-hoc Tukey's test. Results Subjects’ age ranged from 16 to 84 years and the mean age was over 50 years. There was an equal distribution among genders. Strong and positive correlations were seen for the measured length, parenchyma thickness and also for both total and parenchymal volumes with subjects’ height for both kidneys. The strongest correlations were observed for the left and right kidney length and also for the right kidney parenchymal volume (r=0.536, p=0.001; r=0.469, p=0.001; r=0.44, p=0.001). On the opposite, most of the relations with age were negative, but week and insignificant. When we divided the study subjects into three age groups and compared them for the height, there was no significant difference among them. Regarding the parenchymal and total kidney volumes of both kidneys, the different age groups showed similar findings in the ultrasonographic measurements. The mean calculated volumes were slightly declining with age and showed the largest values in the first group of patients under 30 years and lowest values in patients over 70 years old. Ultrasonographic measurements were also compared among the two genders. Both (men and women) showed similar age (53.55 ± 18.22 vs. 50.79 ± 18.13 p= 0.430, respectively). As for the height, men were significantly taller than women (1.734 ± 0.007 vs.1.637 ± 0.005, p= 0.001). The kidney length, volume and parenchymal volumes of both kidneys were significantly larger in men. Conclusion Renal length and volume are strongly correlated with body height. This relation must be considered in clinical decisions on further investigations regarding kidney disease progression.


2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masatoshi Sumi ◽  
Hiroshi Miyamoto ◽  
Teppei Suzuki ◽  
Shuichi Kaneyama ◽  
Takako Kanatani ◽  
...  

Object Because the main pathology of cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM) is spinal cord damage due to compression, surgical treatment is usually recommended to improve patient symptoms and prevent exacerbation. However, lack of clarity of prognosis in cases that present with insignificant symptoms, particularly those of mild CSM, lead one to question the veracity of this course of action. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the prognosis of mild CSM without surgical intervention by evaluation of clinical symptoms and MR imaging findings. Methods Sixty cases of mild CSM (42 males and 18 females, average age 57.2 years) presenting with scores of 13 or higher on the Japanese Orthopaedic Association (JOA) scale were treated initially by in-bed Good Samaritan cervical traction without surgery. These patients were enrolled between 1995 and 2003 and followed up periodically until the date of myelopathy deterioration or until the end of March 2009. The deterioration of myelopathy was defined as a decline in JOA score to less than 13 with a decrease of at least 2 points. As a prognostic factor, the authors used their classification of spinal cord shapes at their lateral sides on axial T1-weighted MR imaging. “Ovoid deformity” was classified as a situation in which both sides were round and convex, and “angular-edged deformity” where one or both sides exhibited an acute-angled lateral corner. The duration of follow-up was assessed as the tolerance rate of mild CSM using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and compared between 2 groups classified by MR imaging findings. Furthermore, differences between groups were analyzed by various applications of the log-rank test. Results Of the initial 60 cases, follow-up records existed for 55, giving a follow-up rate of 91.7% (38 males and 17 females, average age 56.1 years). The mean JOA score at end point was 14.1, which was not statistically different from the mean of 14.5 at the initial visit. Deterioration in myelopathy was observed in 14 (25.5%) of 55 cases, whereas 41 (74.5%) of 55 cases maintained mild extent myelopathy without deterioration through the follow-up period (mean 94.3 months). The total tolerance rate of mild CSM was 70%. However, there was a significant difference in the tolerance rate between the cases with angular-edged deformity (58%) and cases with ovoid deformity (95%; p = 0.049). Conclusions The tolerance rate of mild CSM was 70% in this study, which proved that the prognosis of mild CSM without surgical treatment was relatively good. However, the tolerance rate of the cases with angular-edged deformity was 58%. Therefore, surgical treatment should be considered when mild CSM cases show angular-edged deformity on axial MR imaging, even if patients lack significant symptoms.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elias Shiferaw ◽  
Fadil Murad ◽  
Mitikie Tigabie ◽  
Mareye Abebaw ◽  
Tadele Alemu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Visceral leshimaniasis is a parasitic disease characterized by systemic infection of phagocytic cells and an intense inflammatory response. The progression of the disease or treatment may have an effect on hematological parameters of these patients'. Thus, the current study sought to compare the hematological profiles of visceral leishmaniasis patients before and after treatment with anti-leishmaniasis drugs. Method An institutional-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among visceral leishmaniasis patients admitted to the University of Gondar comprehensive specialized referral hospital leishmaniasis research and treatment centre between September 2013 and August 2018. Hematological profiles were extracted from the laboratory registration book before and after treatment. Data were entered to Epi-info and exported to SPSS for analysis. Descriptive statistics were summarized using frequency and percentage to present with the table. The mean, standard deviation, median, and interquartile range were used to present the data. Furthermore, using the paired t-test and the Wilcoxon Signed rank test, the mean difference for normally and non-normally distributed data was compared. Spearman and Pearson correlation analysis were used to describe the relationship between hematological parameters and various variables. A P value of 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Result With the exception of the absolute neutrophil count, all post-treatment hematological parameters show a significant increase when compared to pre-treatment levels. Prior to treatment, the prevalence of anemia, leukopenia, and thrombocytopenia was 85.5, 83.4, and 75.8%, respectively, whereas it was 58.3, 38.2, and 19.2% following treatment. Furthermore, parasite load was found to have a statistically significant negative correlation with hematological profiles, specifically with white blood cell and red blood cell parameters. Conclusion According to our findings, patients with visceral leishmaniasis had improved hematological profiles after treatment. The effect of treatment on parasite proliferation and concentration within visceral organs, in which the parasite load could directly affect the patient's hematological profiles, may be associated with the change in hematological profiles.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (7) ◽  
pp. 118
Author(s):  
Burcu Güvendi ◽  
Ayşe Türksoy Işım

The goal of this study is to investigate the moral disengagement and aggression levels of fight sport athletes according to several independent variables and reveal the relationship among them. The study group consisted of totally 207 fight sport athletes, 88 females and 119 males with age  = 21,99 ± 4,92 and year of sport  = 6,14 ± 5,42. “The Scale of Moral Disengagement in Sport” and “The Questionnaire of Buss-Perry Aggression” were used as data collection tools. Descriptive statistics, t test, ANOVA and Pearson Correlation analysis were used in the analysis of data. While the mean of physical aggression of athletes was found as the highest, verbal aggression had the lowest mean value within the sub-dimensions of aggression, and they stated that they somewhat disagreed with the moral disengagement. It was found that there was a moderate positive significant correlation between moral disengagement and sub-dimensions of anger, hostility, physical and verbal aggressions of aggression scale. Significant difference was observed in the dimension of moral disengagement in accordance with age and year of sport. Physical and verbal aggression scores of males are significantly higher according to gender. The aggression and moral disengagement scores of kickboxers are significantly higher than those of taekwondo athletes in line with the branch. To conclude, it was determined that fight sport athletes did not approve moral disengagement in sport, however, the case of moral disengagement of athletes, who were younger and started the sport recently, was higher and they mostly showed the behaviour of aggression physically.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (B) ◽  
pp. 1570-1574
Author(s):  
Imam Hafidh Zaini ◽  
Widyanti Soewoto ◽  
Ida Bagus Budhi

AIM: This study aims to evaluate the effect of adjuvant chemotherapy on estradiol levels in patients with HER 2-overexpression breast cancer in a developing country. METHODS: This comparative study with pre- and post-design model observation approach, involving patients with HER 2-overexpression breast cancer who had undergone surgery and had never received chemotherapy or hormonal therapy before, who were then given adjuvant chemotherapy. Estradiol levels were measured before and after chemotherapy. The study was carried out in the surgical oncology division of RSUD Dr. Moewardi (RSDM) Surakarta from January 2020-December 2020. Descriptive data are presented in a frequency table based on age, menstrual status, parity status, breastfeeding status, contraception, contraception duration, family history, stage, and histological grade. Before and after chemotherapy in patients with breast cancer, the estradiol levels employed the paired sample t-test of the Wilcoxon rank test because the data did not meet the normality assumption. RESULTS: From the total data of 21 patients, 15 patients experienced a decrease in estradiol levels after chemotherapy, while six patients underwent an increase. The mean estradiol level before chemotherapy was 89.41 pg/ml, whereas the mean estradiol level after chemotherapy was 55.90 pg/ml. It indicates a difference in the decrease in estradiol levels of 33.51 pg/ml. The statistical test results also obtained a p-value of = 0.033 (p < 0.05), which signifies a significant difference between estradiol levels before and after chemotherapy. Thus, chemotherapy is effective in lowering estradiol levels in patients with breast cancer. CONCLUSION: Chemotherapy affects decreasing estradiol levels in patients with HER2 overexpression breast cancer.


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