Forecasts of the 2010 Midterm Elections

2010 ◽  
Vol 43 (04) ◽  
pp. 625-626 ◽  
Author(s):  
James E. Campbell
Keyword(s):  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Electoral Change ◽  
Previous Election ◽  
Political Conditions

The fundamentals of electoral change in the 2010 midterm elections are unmistakable. Electoral change depends on two general sets of political conditions: those of the previous election or elections and those of the current election. Both favor the Republicans this year.

scholarly journals Explaining Electoral Change in the 2018 US Midterm Elections: The Three Components of Electoral Mandates

The Forum ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 477-493 ◽  
Author(s):  
James E. Campbell
Keyword(s):  
Performance Evaluations ◽  
Vote Outcome ◽  
Electoral Vote ◽  
Behavior Difficulties ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Electoral Change ◽  
Three Components

Abstract Why did the American electorate elect a solid majority of Republicans to the House in 2016 and then 2 years later replace it with a solid majority of Democrats? This article revives the idea of an electoral mandate and applies it to the 2016 and 2018 elections. It proposes a trinity of partisan attitudes serving as the components of electoral mandates: performance, values, and leadership. The election of President Trump in 2016 depended on a mix of performance evaluations (a weak economy) favoring the Republicans and leadership evaluations (Trump’s behavior difficulties) muted by value considerations (conservative anger at being unrepresented and the necessity of a choice between Trump and Clinton). These offsetting partisan attitudes made the election close enough that a small number of votes in key states decided the electoral vote outcome. In 2018, performance evaluations again favored Republicans, but now because they presided over a stronger economy. Evaluations of Trump’s leadership remained negative. The interaction of values with these leadership assessments now favored Democrats. As the out-party, polarized liberals were motivated by anti-Trump anger. Never-Trump conservatives who had drifted back to vote Republican at the end of the 2016 campaign did not feel that same pressure without the presidency being at stake. About two-thirds of voters in 2018 said their vote was about Trump. Republicans lost to Democrats among these voters by 16 percentage points. Republicans delivered on their 2016 mandate to boost the economy, but had failed to provide leadership that many Americans could feel comfortable with.

Reforms and transformation paths in comparative perspective: challenging comparative views on East European and Chinese reforms

2005 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mária Csanádi
Keyword(s):  
Power Distribution ◽  
State Power ◽  
State Model ◽  
Comparative Perspective ◽  
Dynamic Background ◽  
East European ◽  
Structural Context ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
Party State ◽  
Chinese Reforms

Reforms, in view of a comparative party-state model, become the instruments of self-reproduction and self-destruction of party-state power. The specific patterns of power distribution imply different development and transformation paths through different instruments of self-reproduction. This approach also points to the structural and dynamic background of the differences in the location, sequence, speed and political conditions of reforms during the operation and transformation of party-states. In view of the model the paper points to the inconsistencies that emerge in the comparative reform literature concerning the evaluation and strategies of reforms disconnected from their systemic-structural context.

Manageable Self in the Early Hellenistic Era

2010 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 34-36
Author(s):  
Vaia Touna
Keyword(s):  
Social Economic ◽  
Ancient Greece ◽  
The Self ◽  
Hellenistic Period ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
The Individual

This paper argues that the rise of what is commonly termed "personal religion" during the Classic-Hellenistic period is not the result of an inner need or even quality of the self, as often argued by those who see in ancient Greece foreshadowing of Christianity, but rather was the result of social, economic, and political conditions that made it possible for Hellenistic Greeks to redefine the perception of the individual and its relationship to others.

Illegal Migration in Tunisian Rap

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-58
Author(s):  
Mohamed Chamekh
Keyword(s):  
Working Class ◽  
Illegal Migration ◽  
History Of ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Legislative Measures ◽  
The Eu

This article explores illegal migration through Tunisian rap. It considers this music an aspect of resistance and protest against the socio-economic and political conditions obliging thousands of Tunisians to cross the Mediterranean in makeshift boats in search of better prospects and challenging the increasing security and legislative measures crippling mobility imposed by the EU and Tunisian authorities. This article contends that harga songs document the history of the working class in Tunisia and carve the identity of harraga as people who have been marginalised for generations. It concludes that EU-Tunisia security talks and dialogues remain ineffective as long as the root causes of illegal migration have not been addressed. Keywords: illegal migration, Tunisian rap, resistance, marginalization, security, immobility, identity

ISLAM DAN PANCASILA DALAM PEMIKIRAN MOHAMMAD NATSIR

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 82
Author(s):  
Mhd Alfahjri Sukri
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Qualitative Method ◽  
Political Socialization ◽  
Scientific Literature ◽  
Research Data ◽  
The Political ◽  
Direct Influence ◽  
Childhood Environment ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
The Relationship

This research was conducted to see how Mohammad Natsir thought about the relationship between Islam and Pancasila. This study also explains the causes of Natsir's change of mind which initially supported Pancasila as part of Islam and later turned into an opponent of Pancasila in Konstituante on 11 November to 6 December 1957. The methodology used was a qualitative method by describing the results of the analysis carried out. The research data is obtained through a review of documents and scientific literature. The results of the study show that Mohammad Natsir's change of mind regarding the relationship between Islam and Pancasila was influenced by Mohammad Natsir's political socialization which began from Natsir's view of Islam influenced by the childhood environment (conditional and socio-cultural) in Minangkabau; direct influence from national figures such as Ahmad Hassan, H. Agus Salim, Sheikh Ahmad Syurkati and H. O Tjokroaminoto; the indirect influence of international figures throughout reading book such as Hassan Al-Banna, Amir Syakib Arselan, Rashid Ridha and Muhammad Abduh; the influence of Natsir's organization and political parties, namely Jong Islamieten Bond (JIB), Islamic Unity (Persis), and Masyumi political parties; and the influence of the political conditions at that time which made Natsir's views change, which initially accepted Pancasila and then became an opponent of the Pancasila. This research shown there are two patterns of Natsir's relationship with Pancasila, namely (1) Natsir accepted Pancasila and, (2) Natsir opposed Pancasila.

Reflections on the Formation and Future of Asian American Studies

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-128
Author(s):  
Linda Vo
Keyword(s):  
Asian American ◽  
American Studies ◽  
American Population ◽  
Asian American Studies ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
Academic Trajectory ◽  
Demographic Growth

The ongoing demographic growth of the Asian American population enhances foundational support for Asian American studies; however, it also poses complex challenges for the formulation and direction of the field. Asian American studies has been shaped by transnational and regional economic and political conditions, as well as by the receptiveness and limitations of the academy, which has led to uneven disciplinary and institutional manifestations. This essay specifically analyzes what impact the transforming Asian American population has had on the formation of the field of Asian American studies and how the projected demographic growth will shape its future academic trajectory.

Growing Inequality and Public Awareness of Inequality in the States

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
William W. Franko ◽  
Christopher Witko
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
Perceptions Of Inequality ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Here the authors present the variation that exists in income inequality across the states, and variation in public awareness or concern about income inequality as measured by public opinion polls. Though politicians may decide to tackle income inequality even in the absence of public concern about inequality, the authors argue that government responses are more likely when and where there is a growing awareness of, and concern about, inequality, which is confirmed in the analyses in this book. To examine this question in subsequent chapters, a novel measure of public awareness of rising state inequality is developed. Using these estimates, this chapter shows that the growth in the public concern about inequality responds in part to objective increases in inequality, but also that state political conditions, particularly mass partisanship, shape perceptions of inequality.

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