Malthus's Vision of the Population Problem in the Essay on Population

1990 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Hollander
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Presidential Address ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Preventive Check ◽  
Economic Association ◽  
Gary Becker ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Stability

In his Presidential address to the American Economic Association, Gary Becker alludes to Thomas Malthus's “great contribution” (1988, p. 1) in a prologue to a wider exploratory discussion of some of the implications for macroeconomics flowing from recent programs in family economics. The content of the contribution as represented here (p. 2) includes diminishing returns to increases in employment “when land and other capital are fixed;” population growth positively related to the wage, the lower population growth at low wages turning on reduced birth rates (the preventive check) and increased death rates (the positive check); and a long-run equilibrium wage at which population is constant at a level determined by the production function. Becker emphasizes the stability of the equilibrium wage in the face of disturbances. A catastrophic reduction in population size (eg. the Black Death) and consequently a wage increase will be followed by positive population growth which restores both the wage and population size to their respective equilibrium levels. In the event of increases in the amount of usuable land, population size will become permanently higher with the wage ultimately reduced to its original long-run level. Becker represents Malthus as reaching “much more pessimistic conclusions about the long-term economic prospects of the average family” than, for example, Godwin and Condorcet who had maintained that the economic position of mankind will continue to improve over time.

scholarly journals The wrong track also leads someplace: Milton Friedman's presidential address at 50

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 517-532 ◽  
Author(s):  
Servaas Storm
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Presidential Address ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Financial Fragility ◽  
American Economic Association ◽  
Structural Forces ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Economic Association ◽  
The Right ◽  
Do So

Milton Friedman's presidential address to the American Economic Association holds a mythical status as the harbinger of the supply-side counter-revolution in macroeconomics – centred on the rejection of the long-run Phillips-curve inflation–unemployment trade-off. Friedman (seconded by Edmund Phelps) argued that the long run is determined by ‘structural’ forces, not demand, and his view swept the profession and dominated academic economics and macro policymaking for four decades. Friedman, tragically, put macroeconomics on the wrong track which led to disaster: secular stagnation, rising inequality, mounting indebtedness, financial fragility, a banking catastrophe and recession – and no free lunches. This is Friedman's legacy. We have to unlearn the wrong lessons and return macroeconomics to the right track. To do so, this paper shows that Friedman's (and Phelps's) conclusions break down in a general model of the long run in which productivity growth is endogenous – aggregate demand is driving everything again, short and long.

scholarly journals Population and Economic Growth Under Different Growth Engines

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Bucci ◽  
Xavier Raurich
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Human Capital Investment ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Long Run

Abstract Using a growth model with physical capital accumulation, human capital investment and horizontal R&D activity, this paper proposes an alternative channel through which an increase in the population growth rate may yield a non-uniform (i.e., a positive, negative, or neutral) impact on the long-run growth rate of per-capita GDP, as available empirical evidence seems mostly to suggest. The proposed mechanism relies on the nature of the process of economic growth (whether it is fully or semi-endogenous), and the peculiar engine(s) driving economic growth (human capital investment, R&D activity, or both). The model also explains why in the long term the association between population growth and productivity growth may ultimately be negative when R&D is an engine of economic growth.

scholarly journals Could current fertility control methods be effective for landscape-scale management of populations of wild horses (Equus caballus) in Australia?

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca J. Hobbs ◽  
Lyn A. Hinds
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Size ◽  
National Parks ◽  
Fertility Control ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Attractive Alternative ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Animal Populations ◽  
Rate Of Increase

Context Fertility control is seen as an attractive alternative to lethal methods for control of population size and genetic diversity in managed animal populations. Immunocontraceptive vaccines have emerged as the most promising agents for inducing long-term infertility in individual animals. However, after over 20 years of scientific testing of immunocontraceptive vaccines in the horse, the scientific consensus is that their application as a sole management approach for reducing population size is not an effective strategy. Aims The purpose of this review is to evaluate currently available non-lethal fertility-control methods that have been tested for their contraceptive efficacy in Equidae, and to assess their suitability for effective management of wild (feral) horses in an Australian setting. Key results (1) Fertility-control agents, particularly injectable immunocontraceptive vaccines based on porcine zona pellucida (PZP) or gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH), can induce multi-year infertility (up to 3 years) in the horse. Some formulations require annual or biennial booster treatments. Remote dart delivery (on foot) to horses is possible, although the efficacy of this approach when applied to large numbers of animals is yet to be determined. (2) The proportion of females that must be treated with a fertility-control agent, as well as the frequency of treatment required to achieve defined management outcomes (i.e. halting population growth in the short term and reducing population size in the long term) is likely to be >50% per annum. In national parks, treatment of a large number of wild horses over such a broad area would be challenging and impractical. (3) Fertility control for wild horses could be beneficial, but only if employed in conjunction with other broad-scale population-control practices to achieve population reduction and to minimise environmental impacts. Conclusions In Australia, most populations of wild horses are large, dispersed over varied and difficult-to-access terrain, are timid to approach and open to immigration and introductions. These factors make accessing and effectively managing animals logistically difficult. If application of fertility control could be achieved in more than 50% of the females, it could be used to slow the rate of increase in a population to zero (2–5 years), but it will take more than 10–20 years before population size will begin to decline without further intervention. Thus, use of fertility control as the sole technique for halting population growth is not feasible in Australia.

An optimal hunting policy for a stochastic logistic model

1979 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 319-331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andris Abakuks
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Optimal Policy ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Stochastic Version ◽  
Stochastic Logistic Model ◽  
Parameter Values

A stochastic version of the logistic model for population growth is considered, and the general form of an optimal policy is found for hunting the population so as to maximise the long-term average number of captures per unit time. This optimal policy is described by a critical population size x∗such that it is optimal to hunt if and only if the population size is greater than or equal to x∗. Methods of determining x∗for given parameter values are provided, and some properties of the optimal policy as the population size tends to infinity are proved.

scholarly journals ANALISIS DINAMIS KETERKAITAN VARIABEL YANG MEMPENGARUHI NERACA TRANSAKSI BERJALAN INDONESIA TAHUN 2012

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Winta Ratna Sari
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Current Account

This study was to analyze the contribution rate (the rupiah against the U.S. dollar), Libor Interest Rate, Inflation and Output Growth (GDP) of the current account balance in Indonesia. The data used in this study secondary data is sourced from Indonesia Financial Statistics. The data used is the data quarterly from the first quarter of 2000 up to 2010 fourth quarter. The results of the estimated Vector Autoregression (VAR) indicates that there is a relationship between the Current Account, Exchange Rate, Libor Interest Rate, Inflation and GDP at lag t-1. Impulse response function of the stability of the first note that all variables are in the long run that is over 5 years and tend to be stable. This means that in the short term variables that are used do not provide a meaningful contribution in the long term but will mutually contribute to each other. Variance Decomposition Based on these results, it is known that all variables contributed to the Current Account, but his greatest contribution is of the variable itself, this means that the current account tends to a variable receiving contributions rather than giving contributions

DAMPAK JANGKA PANJANG PERTUMBUHAN PENDUDUK TERHADAP INVESTASI AGREGAT PROVINSI DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 193-204
Author(s):  
Paulina Paulina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Good Investment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Investment Rates ◽  
Growth Formation ◽  
Analysis Models

This study aims to determine the causality relationship between population growth of a country / region (PG)  which has an impact on the formation of investment (TINV) and economic growth (EG). This research was focused on 33 provinces in Indonesia on these 3 main variables. The data used are secondary data from 33 provinces, with observations between 2015-2017. The analysis models used are unit root and cointegration tests, VAR estimation and long-term VECM models, and panel data. The results of this study indicate: (1) there is no causal relationship between PG, TINV, and EG; (2) The cointegration test and the VAR model shows that there is a long-term relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables; (3) In the VECM model, there appears to be an influence between PG, EG on investment in the long run; (4) there are quite good investment provinces namely DKI Jakarta, and most of the eastern provinces of Indonesia experience positive investment rates. Keywords: population growth, formation of investmen, economic growth

An optimal hunting policy for a stochastic logistic model

1979 ◽  
Vol 16 (02) ◽  
pp. 319-331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andris Abakuks
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Optimal Policy ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Stochastic Version ◽  
Stochastic Logistic Model ◽  
Parameter Values

A stochastic version of the logistic model for population growth is considered, and the general form of an optimal policy is found for hunting the population so as to maximise the long-term average number of captures per unit time. This optimal policy is described by a critical population size x∗such that it is optimal to hunt if and only if the population size is greater than or equal to x∗. Methods of determining x∗for given parameter values are provided, and some properties of the optimal policy as the population size tends to infinity are proved.

Long-term effects of population growth on aggregate investment dynamics

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 225-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simplice A. Asongu
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Investment Dynamics

Purpose – The generation is witnessing the greatest demographic transition and Africa is at the heart of it. There is mounting concern over corresponding rising unemployment and depleting per capita income. The purpose of this paper is to examine the issues from a long-run perspective by assessing the relationships between population growth and a plethora of investment dynamics: public, private, foreign and domestic investments. Design/methodology/approach – Vector autoregressive models in the perspectives of vector error correction and short-run Granger causality are used. Findings – In the long-run population growth will: first, decrease foreign and public investments in Ivory Coast; second, increase public and private investments in Swaziland; three, deplete public investment but augment domestic investment in Zambia; fourth diminish private investment and improve domestic investment in the Congo Republic and Sudan, respectively. Practical implications – Mainstream positive linkage of population growth to investment growth in the long-term should be treated with extreme caution. Policy orientation should not be blanket, but contingent on country-specific trends and tailored differently across countries. The findings stress the need for the creation of a conducive investment climate (and ease of doing business) for private and foreign investments. Family planning and birth control policies could also be considered in countries with little future investment avenues. Originality/value – The objective of this study is to provide policy makers with some insights on how future investment opportunities could help manage rising population growth and corresponding unemployment.

PUSH, PULL, AND POPULATION SIZE EFFECTS IN STRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT: LONG-RUN TRADE-OFFS

2016 ◽  
Vol 82 (4) ◽  
pp. 423-457 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oksana M. Leukhina ◽  
Stephen J. Turnovsky
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Specific Productivity ◽  
Structural Development ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
Push And Pull

Abstract:The process of structural transformation from the farm to a nonfarm sector is accompanied by technological change in both sectors and massive population growth. We investigate the effects of increasing population size (the population effect) and sector-specific productivity (the push and pull effects), both factor-neutral and factor-biased, in a parsimonious general equilibrium model under general forms of utility and production functions. All three effects may co-exist and interact in important ways. Generalizing the agricultural sector production function to CES is crucial for the population growth effect. Our analysis highlights how the relative importance of the three effects changes as the country develops and production and consumption conditions become more flexible.

scholarly journals Human Capital Development, Economic Rejuvenation and Stable Long-Term Growth: The Case of Nigeria

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 202-214
Author(s):  
Martins Iyoboyi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Development Economic ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Human Capital Development ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stable Growth ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Capital Development

The paper investigates the relative impact of human capital development on economic rejuvenation and growth in Nigeria form 1981 to 2010, using the bounds testing approach to cointegration. The study utilized a combined proxy of education and health to capture the influence of human capital on growing and consequently rejuvenating an economy. Fixed capital and human capital were found to be positively associated with economic growth in both the short and long run, while Granger-causing economic growth in the period of study, implying the imperatives of using them to rejuvenate an economy. The stability of the coefficients of the estimated model is confirmed by the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests. The paper showed that for Nigeria’s economic rejuvenation and long-term stable growth, emphasis should be placed on deliberately developing the country’s vast human resources.

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