When does the turning point in China's CO2emissions occur? Results based on the Green Solow model

2015 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 723-745 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Hao ◽  
Yi-Ming Wei
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Solow Model ◽  
Benchmark Scenario ◽  
Carbon Efficiency ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Determining Factor ◽  
China’S Economy

AbstractIn recent years, the surge in China's CO2emissions has caused increasing international concern. In this paper, we investigate whether and when the turning point in China's CO2emissions would occur. A simple yet powerful neoclassical Green Solow model (GSM) is utilized herein as the main forecasting tool. To verify the capability of this framework to address China's economy, a key prediction of the GSM – the convergence in per capita CO2emissions across Chinese provinces – is empirically verified. By assigning reasonable values to the GSM's key parameters, the trajectories of total CO2emissions are projected for the three regions of China and the whole country. The forecast results show that, under the benchmark scenario, China's total CO2emissions would peak around the year 2047. According to the sensitivity analysis, carbon efficiency is the most important determining factor for whether a turning point in total CO2emissions may occur.

scholarly journals HIV/AIDS and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danjuma Maijama'a ◽  
Shamzaeffa Samsudin ◽  
Shazida jan Mohd Khan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Hiv And Aids ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Growth Equation ◽  
Solow Model ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Sub Saharan

<p>This study investigates the effects of the HIV and AIDS epidemic on economic growth in 42<br />sub-Saharan African countries using data spanning from 1990-2013. Unlike previous studies,<br />we use a longer data horizon and take the time lag effect of the epidemic’s incubation period<br />that is, after it might have developed to AIDS into consideration in our estimations. We<br />estimated an empirical growth equation within an augmented Solow model and applied the<br />dynamic system GMM estimator. The results suggest that current HIV prevalence rate –<br />associated with rising morbidity, has a negative effect on GDP per capita growth, conversely<br />AIDS – associated with higher mortality in addition to morbidity, increases per capita GDP<br />growth.</p>

On the Dynamics of Basic Growth Models: Ratio Stability vs. Convergence and Divergence in State Space

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 384-400 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thorsten Pampel
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Optimal Growth ◽  
Growth Path ◽  
Solow Model ◽  
Initial Capital ◽  
Balanced Growth ◽  
Balanced Growth Path ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Convergence And Divergence

Abstract We show for a class of basic growth models that convergence in ratios does not imply the pathwise convergence to the corresponding balanced growth path in the state space. We derive conditions on parameters and on the elasticity of the savings function for convergence or divergence and apply our results to the Solow model, an augmented Solow model as well as to an optimal growth model. An implication for the convergence debate is that two economies that differ only in the initial capital stock and converge in per capita terms might diverge to infinity in absolute terms.

scholarly journals Determinants Of Economic Growth: Evidence From American Countries

2010 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Zhuang ◽  
Robert St. Juliana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Solow Model ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth ◽  
The Relationship

This paper explores determinants of economic growth using variables from traditional Solow model and recent empirical studies. The study covers data on American countries during the period 1995-2006.  The estimates show that per capita, GDP growth is positively related to capital expenditure, primary completion rate and trade openness and the relationship is statistically significant. Furthermore, population growth rate and investment in research and development have positive impacts on economic growth, yet the effects are not significant.

scholarly journals Environmental Kuznets Curve Revisited, with Reference to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 110
Author(s):  
Patricia Aguado ◽  
Jinhwan Oh
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Environmental Kuznets Curve ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Pm 2.5 ◽  
Sustainable Technologies ◽  
Per Capita

Using an up-to-date panel dataset that covers 88 countries over a 38-year period (1991–2018), this paper revisits the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) to measure environmental degradation (CO2, methane, nitrous Oxide, PM 2.5, HFC, PFC and SF6) in relation to GDP per capita. This study confirms the inverted-U relation for CO2 emissions, with the estimated turning point at $13,233, but also identifies a U relation in the case of PM 2.5. Furthermore, in a regional analysis of both CO2 and PM 2.5, with special reference to the MENA region, it finds gaps between actual CO2 emissions and their fitted values. We observe that Libya, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Algeria show average ratios higher than 1, meaning the actual values are higher than the fitted ones and therefore these countries face more serious pollution problems. Based on this finding, we recommend the implementation of policies in this region that aim to reach energy efficiency as well as the development of eco-friendly and sustainable technologies.  

Does green taxation drive countries towards the carbon efficiency frontier?

2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 481-509
Author(s):  
Tobias Böhmelt ◽  
Farzad Vaziri ◽  
Hugh Ward
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Good Practice ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Environmental Tax ◽  
Efficiency Frontier ◽  
Carbon Efficiency ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

AbstractA country is on thecarbon efficiency frontierif its per-capita emissions of CO2are at least as low as any state that was at least as economically developed at a period when technology was no more advanced. Building on earlier work employing Data Envelopment Analysis to benchmark performance, we argue that a useful measure of whether a state adopts “good practice” in relation to climate change is how near it is to this frontier. We calculate efficiency scores for a sample of developed countries between 1994 and 2011, and model the impact of green taxation, next to a series of political and economic controls, on performance. We find that higher levels of environmental tax revenue are positively and significantly associated with higher carbon efficiency. The central contributions of this research are the introduction of an innovative measure for environmental quality and assessing how this is driven by green taxation.

scholarly journals Determining The Age Priority in Universal Vaccination Using Economic Evidence: Case From US Based On Dynamic Transmission Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dachuang Zhou ◽  
Taihang Shao ◽  
Zeyao Liu ◽  
Xingming Pan ◽  
Xueke Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Healthcare System ◽  
Medical Costs ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
System Perspective ◽  
Healthcare System Perspective ◽  
Dynamic Transmission Model ◽  
Per Capita

Abstract Background: Currently, increasing regions have realized that universal vaccination are necessary to prevent COVID-19. However many of them are facing problems associated with insufficient supply or chaotic allocation of vaccines. This study selected the United States population as an example and explored prioritization strategies of COVID-19 vaccination for different age groups to achieve the highest economic efficiency.Methods: We built a dynamic transmission model to predict the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections under the prioritization strategies of vaccination for different ages within a 180-day simulation period. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was selected as the outcome. Medical costs included direct medical cost and vaccine cost based on a healthcare system perspective. Data on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, vaccine efficacy, and medical costs were derived from publicly available databases and previously published literature. Different COVID-19 vaccines were included in scenario analysis. The robustness of the study results was evaluated by one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Results: COVID-19 vaccination is economical compared with no vaccination. Priority vaccination for adults aged 25–59 years saves $31,664.2 million and that for adults over 60 years old saves $30,082.9 million in medical costs compared with no vaccine intervention. Additionally, priority vaccination for adults aged 25–59 years vs. over 60 years old saves $1,581.3 million. In contrast, priority vaccination for adults aged over 60 years vs. 25–59 years old gains 0.001 QALYs and costs $4.7 per capita, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $4,829.3/QALY, and it is economical when taking gross domestic product per capita of the United States in 2020 as the willingness-to-pay threshold. The results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the base-case results are robust.Conclusions: From a healthcare system perspective, it is most economical to prioritize adults aged over 60 years for COVID-19 vaccination in the United States, thereby achieving effective resource allocation and saving the government costs.

scholarly journals Environmental Kuznets curve and growth source in Iran

2012 ◽  
Vol 59 (5) ◽  
pp. 609-623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryam Asghari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Environmental Kuznets Curve ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

Recent empirical research has examined the relationship between certain indicators of environmental degradation and income, concluding that in some cases an inverted U-shaped relationship, which has been called an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), exists between these variables. The source of growth explanation is important for two reasons. First, it demonstrates how the pollution consequences of growth depend on the source of growth. Therefore, the analogy drawn by some in the environmental community between the damaging effects of economic development and those of liberalized trade is, at best, incomplete. Second, the source of growth explanation demonstrates that a strong policy response to income gains is not necessary for pollution to fall with growth. The aim of this paper investigates the role of differences source of growth in environmental quality of Iran. The results show the two growth resources in Iran cause, in the early stages, CO2 emission decreases until turning point but beyond this level of income per capita, economic growth leads to environmental degradation. I find a U relationship between environmental degradation (CO2 emission) and economic growth in Iran.

Coal trends signal deep shifts in China's economy

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Coal Production ◽  
Sharp Reduction ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
Combat Climate Change ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject Trends in China's coal use. Significance The last two years have seen a decline in China's domestic coal production and consumption, and a sharp reduction in coal imports. The country's coal sector has reached a turning point. Impacts Coal exporters such as Indonesia and Australia will suffer as China's demand for imported coal weakens. In large part due to China, global coal demand will probably flatline or fall slightly over the next five years. During the same period, global coal prices will remain under pressure, despite rapidly rising demand from India and Indonesia. New data imply China's CO2 emissions are higher than previously thought, making it more urgent to reduce coal use to combat climate change.

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