INTERNATIONAL SYNCHRONIZATION AND CHANGES IN LONG-TERM INFLATION UNCERTAINTY

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 918-946 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen R. Henzel ◽  
Elisabeth Wieland
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Inflation Uncertainty ◽  
International Linkages ◽  
Good Policy ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Structural Vector

We investigate the international linkages of uncertainty associated with the long-term movements of inflation. In the first step, we establish that inflation uncertainty in the G7 is intertwined, and the degree of synchronization has increased during the recent two decades. We also document a rise in inflation uncertainty accompanying the global financial crisis. Based on a factor–structural vector autoregression, we provide evidence of a common international shock. We disclose that this shock is closely related to oil and commodity price uncertainty, and it explains large parts of the recent rise in inflation uncertainty. Moreover, increased synchronization can be explained by greater relative importance of this global shock. We also document that inflation uncertainty has become more stable, because domestic shocks translate less extensively into individual economies. This finding lends support to the “good policy” hypothesis.

Financial Sustainability and Infrastructure Finance

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felipe Carvalho de Rezende
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Sustainability ◽  
Infrastructure Finance ◽  
Strategic Role ◽  
Development Banks ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Development

Among the lessons that can be drawn from the global financial crisis is that private financial institutions have failed to promote the capital development of the affected economies, and to dampen financial fragility. This chapter analyses the macroeconomic role that development banks can play in this context, not only providing long-term funding necessary to promote economic development, but also fostering financial stability. The chapter discusses, in particular, the need for public financial institutions to provide support for infrastructure and sustainable development projects. It concludes that development banks play a strategic role by funding infrastructure projects in particular, and outlines the lessons for enhancing their role as catalysts for mitigating risks associated with such projects.

Effect of economic indicators, biomass energy on human development in China

2021 ◽  
pp. 0958305X2110220
Author(s):  
Ngo Thai Hung
Keyword(s):  
Human Development ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Biomass Energy ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Frequency Domains ◽  
Bidirectional Relationship ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Previous studies ignored the distinction between short, medium, and long term by decomposing macroeconomic variables and human development index at different time scales. We re-visit the causal association between biomass energy (BIO), economic growth (GDP), trade openness (TRO), industrialization (IND), foreign direct investment (FDI), and human development (HDI) in China on a quarterly scale by scale basis for the period 1990 to 2019 using the tools of wavelet, i.e., wavelet correlation, wavelet coherence and scale by scale Granger causality test. The main findings uncover that IND, TRO, GDP, and BIO positively drive the HDI at low and medium frequencies, while FDI negatively impacts HDI during the sample period. Additionally, there is a bidirectional relationship between GDP and HDI at different time and frequency domains. Specifically, we discover that the positive co-movement is more robust in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, particularly for HDI, BIO, GDP, and TRO at medium frequencies throughout the period under research. Our empirical insights have significant implications for achieving human development sustainability in China.

scholarly journals Financial cycle − A critical analysis of the methodology for its identification

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 99-116
Author(s):  
Łukasz Kurowski
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Critical Perspective ◽  
Financial Cycle ◽  
Economic Justification ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Abstract While the legitimacy of the concept of the financial cycle (as distinct from the business cycle) in research and economic policy after the experience of the global financial crisis raises no concerns, the methodology for its application has become a subject of discussion. The purpose of this article is to indicate which research methods dominate in identifying a financial cycle and which methodological traps accompany them. The low level of critical perspective on the methods used to identify cycles often results in conclusions that have no economic justification and may result in erroneous decisions in economic policy and central bank practice. The case study carried out in the article confirms that the key elements in identifying a financial cycle are part of a long-term series covering at least two lengths of the financial cycle. In addition, because the results may be sensitive to the type of filter used, it is important not to rely on a single variable but rather to build indexes that take into account a number of them (including those obtained using filtration methods).

scholarly journals ADJUSTMENT SPEED OF DEBT MATURITY: EVIDENCE FROM FINANCIAL CRISES IN EAST ASIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-92
Author(s):  
Hasan Tekin ◽  
Ali Yavuz Polat
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Debt Maturity ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
Adjustment Speed ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Holders

We investigate the change in adjustment speed of debt maturity for East Asian firms between 1990 and 2017 by including two exogenous shocks: the Asian Financial Crisis 1997-1998 (AFC) and the Global Financial Crisis 2007-2009 (GFC). We employ the least square dummy variable correction and find that East Asian firms have a slower adjustment of long-term debt over time. Besides, the decrease in adjustment speed of long-term debt after the GFC is more compared to the decrease after the AFC. Further analysis shows the optimal debt maturity differs across countries and industries. Another important implication of our results is that firms in high governance countries are more likely to close the gap between the actual and target debt maturity in time. Overall, debt holders and investors should consider financial uncertainties.

scholarly journals Cointegration of Stock Market and Exchange Rate in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pribawa E Pantas ◽  
Muhamad Nafik Hadi Ryandono ◽  
Misbahul Munir ◽  
Rofiul Wahyudi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This study aims to determine the long-term relationship between stock market and exchange rate in Indonesia. The research method used is Johansen cointegration test. The results of this study found no cointegration between the variables tested. Thus the exchange rate, JII, and IHSG have no relationship in the long term. The fluctuation of the rupiah exchange rate in recent years did not generally affect the performance of stock indices especially after the global financial crisis of 2008. This shows the capital market in Indonesia has a good performance so that it is not so sensitive to the sentiment of the decline in the rupiah against the US dollar. This finding is in line with the findings of Syahrer (2010) which states the exchange rate has no effect on the stock market.

Advancing SME Sustainability

2021 ◽  
pp. 159-178
Author(s):  
Meng Kui Hu ◽  
Daisy Mui Hung Kee
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Business Environments ◽  
Business Operations ◽  
New Business ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

The world has been struck by multiple crises that crippled the socio-economy of nations in the past. The impact of these crises was so significant that they initiated numerous policy changes worldwide. The radical crises in this context refer to the Spanish flu, the Asian financial crisis, the global financial crisis, and the current COVID-19 pandemic. Due to their small capital structure with limited resources and fragile nature, SMEs were severely impacted by these crises. Many SMEs were forced to close down their business operations. Somehow, the remaining SMEs managed to persist and survive through the crises. Moving forward, SMEs can better prepare for future crises by understanding and learning from the predicaments of these past crises. Consequently, SMEs must also be adaptive to new business environments and responding promptly to crises by realigning their strategies to achieve business sustainability in the long term.

Greenspan's Conundrum and Bernanke's Nightmare

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Francis E. Warnock
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
International Finance ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Major Step ◽  
Treasury Bonds ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The U.S

At what point in the tepid recovery from the global financial crisis should the Fed take a major step in normalizing U.S. monetary policy by greatly reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds? Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke faced this question in Spring 2012, even as he was concerned that the U.S. economy was on weaker footing than many believed. Suitable for both core and elective MBA courses in global financial markets and international finance, this case examines the risks associated with a policy some would consider monetizing the budget deficit. Students consider the factors behind the current and prospective levels of U.S. long-term interest rates from Bernanke's perspective.

scholarly journals Burning the buffer: New Zealand's budgetary response to COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Ball
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Net Worth ◽  
Fiscal Impacts ◽  
Financial Management System ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

PurposeThe New Zealand Government has progressively strengthened its balance sheet position since the mid-1990s, other than for the four years immediately following the global financial crisis and the Canterbury earthquakes. This paper describes the nature and the forecast and actual fiscal impacts of the COVID-19 response, and identifies the transparency mechanisms which reveal these impacts. It also expresses a viewpoint on the implications of the COVID-19 response for the future resilience of the Government's fiscal position.Design/methodology/approachThe paper draws on the suite of official budgetary documents to demonstrate both the transparency of the disclosures on the COVID-19 impact and the substance of the forecast and actual fiscal impacts.FindingsThe paper reveals the change in the long-term fiscal aspirations of the New Zealand Government from one of achieving and maintaining a significant net worth buffer, to one which accommodates in the long-term a markedly smaller buffer and lower level of net worth.Originality/valueThe public financial management system in New Zealand is notable for its transparency. The Government's response to the pandemic is used to illustrate the nature and extent of that transparency.

Implications of the Global Financial Crisis on Korea's Trade

2009 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 46-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangyeon Hwang ◽  
Hyejoon Im
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
The World ◽  
World Demand ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

In this paper, we examine the channels through which the current global crisis affects Korea's trade and assess the implications thereof. These five important channels under investigation are: (1) world demand, (2) domestic demand, (3) exchange rate, (4) credit markets, and (5) protectionism. We conclude that the world demand channel is the most important factor for the recovery of Korea's exports. We expect that depreciation followed by the crisis should generate only small positive effects on a trade balance in the short run. However, depreciation can erode the long-term competitiveness of domestic firms because it can deteriorate not only firms' balance sheets but also banks' balance sheets.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document