Voice and Balancing in US Congressional Elections

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Till Weber
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Median Voter ◽  
Federal Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Policy Impact ◽  
The People ◽  
Dominant Parties ◽  
Policy Incentives

If the median voter wrote the Constitution, every Tuesday would be Election Day. Consider the case of the United States: Halfway into a presidential term, congressional elections allow the people to adjust the course of federal policy. Two complementary mechanisms describe how this opportunity is embraced by centrists: a direct mechanism, which strengthens the out-party in Congress to “balance” the president’s policy impact, and an indirect mechanism, by which midterm voting serves to “voice” dissatisfaction as a signal to the president. A model of repeated elections unites the two mechanisms: whereas midterm balancing reacts to the preceding presidential election, midterm voice anticipates the following one. Using micro and macro data for all House elections from 1956 through 2018, I show that balancing and voice work hand in hand: it is those voters with both policy incentives who contribute most to the notorious “midterm loss,” and particularly so under circumstances that make balancing more necessary and voice more promising. Yet although policy-oriented behavior typically restrains dominant parties, it may also cushion the fall of unpopular administrations. Centrists can be creative.

You’re Fired! Donald Trump and the 2020 Congressional Elections

The Forum ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 627-650
Author(s):  
Jamie L. Carson ◽  
Spencer Hardin ◽  
Aaron A. Hitefield
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The United States ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
General Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Modern Era

Abstract The 2020 elections brought to an end one of the most divisive and historic campaigns in the modern era. Former Vice President Joe Biden was elected the 46th President of the United States with the largest number of votes ever cast in a presidential election, defeating incumbent President Donald Trump in the process. The record turnout was especially remarkable in light of the ongoing pandemic surrounding COVID-19 and the roughly 236,000 Americans who had died of the virus prior to the election. This article examines the electoral context of the 2020 elections focusing on elections in both the House and Senate. More specifically, this article examines the candidates, electoral conditions, trends, and outcomes in the primaries as well as the general election. In doing so, we provide a comprehensive descriptive analysis of the climate and outcome of the 2020 congressional elections. Finally, the article closes with a discussion of the broader implications of the election outcomes on both the incoming 117th Congress as well as the upcoming 2022 midterm election.

Conclusion and the Future of Presidential-Election Rules

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cynthia McClintock
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The United States ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Political Exclusion ◽  
Dominant Parties ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Legislative Election

Runoff has been advantageous in Latin America and could be in the United States also. Amid the legitimacy deficits of the 2000 and 2016 elections in the United States, popular demand for change in electoral rules is strong. Although ranked-choice voting is the most common innovation in the United States, it is complex and relatively untested. By contrast, runoff has been tested in Latin America and shown to be successful. Runoff opened the electoral arena to new parties but, at the same time, assured that the president had majority support and was not at an ideological extreme. By contrast, plurality often facilitated political exclusion by dominant parties and exacerbated cynicism and polarization. Although the number of parties was larger under runoff, the concomitant problems can be ameliorated by such measures as the scheduling of the legislative election after the first round and raising the threshold for entry to the legislature.

Magic and Politics

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 5-14
Author(s):  
Sabina Magliocco
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Human Behavior ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The United States ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Cultural Expression ◽  
Spirit World

This essay introduces a special issue of Nova Religio on magic and politics in the United States in the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election. The articles in this issue address a gap in the literature examining intersections of religion, magic, and politics in contemporary North America. They approach political magic as an essentially religious phenomenon, in that it deals with the spirit world and attempts to motivate human behavior through the use of symbols. Covering a range of practices from the far right to the far left, the articles argue against prevailing scholarly treatments of the use of esoteric technologies as a predominantly right-wing phenomenon, showing how they have also been operationalized by the left in recent history. They showcase the creativity of magic as a form of human cultural expression, and demonstrate how magic coexists with rationality in contemporary western settings.

Populism and Liberal Democracy

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takis S. Pappas
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Liberal Democracy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Comprehensive Theory ◽  
The People ◽  
Original Definition ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
Great Relevance ◽  
Definition Of

Based on an original definition of modern populism as “democratic illiberalism” and many years of meticulous research, Takis Pappas marshals extraordinary empirical evidence from Argentina, Greece, Peru, Italy, Venezuela, Ecuador, Hungary, the United States, Spain, and Brazil to develop a comprehensive theory about populism. He addresses all key issues in the debate about populism and answers significant questions of great relevance for today’s liberal democracy, including: • What is modern populism and how can it be differentiated from comparable phenomena like nativism and autocracy? • Where in Latin America has populism become most successful? Where in Europe did it emerge first? Why did its rise to power in the United States come so late? • Is Trump a populist and, if so, could he be compared best with Venezuela’s Chávez, France’s Le Pens, or Turkey’s Erdoğan? • Why has populism thrived in post-authoritarian Greece but not in Spain? And why in Argentina and not in Brazil? • Can populism ever succeed without a charismatic leader? If not, what does leadership tell us about how to challenge populism? • Who are “the people” who vote for populist parties, how are these “made” into a group, and what is in their minds? • Is there a “populist blueprint” that all populists use when in power? And what are the long-term consequences of populist rule? • What does the expansion, and possibly solidification, of populism mean for the very nature and future of contemporary democracy? Populism and Liberal Democracy will change the ways the reader understands populism and imagines the prospects of liberal democracy.

Attitudes toward Mormons and Voter Behavior in the 2012 Presidential Election

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Hawley
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Voter Behavior ◽  
Latter Day Saints ◽  
Active Member ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Church

AbstractPrior to the 2012 presidential election, some commentators speculated that Mitt Romney's status as a devout and active member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints would undermine his presidential aspirations. Using the 2012 American National Election Survey, this study examines the relationship between attitudes toward Mormons and voter behavior in the United States in that election year. It finds that attitudes toward Mormons had a statistically-significant effect on turnout — though these effects differed according to party identification. It additionally finds that these attitudes influenced vote choice. In both cases, the substantive effects were small, indicating that anti-Mormon feelings did play a role in the 2012 presidential election, but they did not determine the final outcome.

Convergent Validity in Students' Perceptions of Jimmy Carter, Ted Kennedy, and the Ideal President

1981 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Anthony Butterfield ◽  
Gary N. Powell
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Convergent Validity ◽  
Sex Role ◽  
Junior College ◽  
The United States ◽  
Jimmy Carter ◽  
Effective Leader ◽  
Junior College Students ◽  
The Ideal

Recently Gelineau and Merenda (1980) reported that students saw an Ideal President of the United States as an effective leader who is forceful, confident, enthusiastic, independent, and aggressive. Students' ratings of President Carter did not match the Ideal President description, but their ratings of Senator Kennedy did. Using a completely different instrument (Bern Sex-role Inventory rather than Activity Vector Analysis) and 378 undergraduate business—rather than 114 junior college—students, the present study found nearly identical results. Both studies were validated by the 1980 U.S. presidential election.

Democracy and Excellence: Concord or Conflict?

2007 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 535-537
Author(s):  
Laura Stephenson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Class Structure ◽  
The People ◽  
Democratic Societies ◽  
The Relationship

Democracy and Excellence: Concord or Conflict?, Joseph Romance and Neil Reimer, eds., Westport CN: Praeger, 2005, 166, pp. xiv.This volume is the product of a question, asked by Neal Reimer, about the relationship between democracy and excellence. Reimer provides background for this relationship in the first chapter, noting that it can be framed as government by the people versus standards of the good, true and beautiful. Conflict can arise between the two ideas because democracy prioritizes equality of citizens—but excellence depends upon the recognition of differentiating merit. While democracy provides citizens freedom from a limiting class structure, the lack of structure can make citizens indifferent to pursuing a noble vision of the state. Reimer argues, however, that there is a fundamental harmony between democracy and excellence and that examples of excellence in democratic societies (such as the United States) are many. It is possible and likely that democratic societies will attain excellence in practice.

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