scholarly journals The Impact of Eruption Source Parameter Uncertainties on Ash Dispersion Forecasts During Explosive Volcanic Eruptions

2020 ◽  
Vol 125 (17) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Dioguardi ◽  
Frances Beckett ◽  
Tobias Dürig ◽  
John A. Stevenson
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Source Parameter ◽  
Parameter Uncertainties ◽  
Ash Dispersion ◽  
Explosive Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals The fate of volcanic ash: premature or delayed sedimentation?

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Rossi ◽  
Gholamhossein Bagheri ◽  
Frances Beckett ◽  
Costanza Bonadonna
Keyword(s):  
Residence Time ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Theoretical Description ◽  
Particle Sedimentation ◽  
Weather Modeling ◽  
Explosive Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Travel Distances ◽  
Ash Dispersal

AbstractA large amount of volcanic ash produced during explosive volcanic eruptions has been found to sediment as aggregates of various types that typically reduce the associated residence time in the atmosphere (i.e., premature sedimentation). Nonetheless, speculations exist in the literature that aggregation has the potential to also delay particle sedimentation (rafting effect) even though it has been considered unlikely so far. Here, we present the first theoretical description of rafting that demonstrates how delayed sedimentation may not only occur but is probably more common than previously thought. The fate of volcanic ash is here quantified for all kind of observed aggregates. As an application to the case study of the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano (Iceland), we also show how rafting can theoretically increase the travel distances of particles between 138–710 μm. These findings have fundamental implications for hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal as well as for weather modeling.

scholarly journals Vibro-Acoustical Sensitivities of Stiffened Aircraft Structures Due to Attached Mass-Spring-Dampers with Uncertain Parameters

Aerospace ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Johannes Seidel ◽  
Stephan Lippert ◽  
Otto von Estorff
Keyword(s):  
System Response ◽  
Fuzzy Arithmetic ◽  
Parameter Uncertainties ◽  
Excitation Spectra ◽  
Radiated Noise ◽  
Linking Elements ◽  
Manufacturing Tolerances ◽  
Suitable Framework ◽  
Mass Spring ◽  
The Impact

The slightest manufacturing tolerances and variances of material properties can indeed have a significant impact on structural modes. An unintentional shift of eigenfrequencies towards dominant excitation frequencies may lead to increased vibration amplitudes of the structure resulting in radiated noise, e.g., reducing passenger comfort inside an aircraft’s cabin. This paper focuses on so-called non-structural masses of an aircraft, also known as the secondary structure that are attached to the primary structure via clips, brackets, and shock mounts and constitute a significant part of the overall mass of an aircraft’s structure. Using the example of a simplified fuselage panel, the vibro-acoustical consequences of parameter uncertainties in linking elements are studied. Here, the fuzzy arithmetic provides a suitable framework to describe uncertainties, create combination matrices, and evaluate the simulation results regarding target quantities and the impact of each parameter on the overall system response. To assess the vibrations of the fuzzy structure and by taking into account the excitation spectra of engine noise, modal and frequency response analyses are conducted.

scholarly journals Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 4333-4351 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Stohl ◽  
A. J. Prata ◽  
S. Eckhardt ◽  
L. Clarisse ◽  
A. Durant ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
General Nature ◽  
Aviation Industry ◽  
Dispersion Modeling ◽  
Source Information ◽  
European Area ◽  
Ash Dispersion

Abstract. The April–May, 2010 volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland caused significant economic and social disruption in Europe whilst state of the art measurements and ash dispersion forecasts were heavily criticized by the aviation industry. Here we demonstrate for the first time that large improvements can be made in quantitative predictions of the fate of volcanic ash emissions, by using an inversion scheme that couples a priori source information and the output of a Lagrangian dispersion model with satellite data to estimate the volcanic ash source strength as a function of altitude and time. From the inversion, we obtain a total fine ash emission of the eruption of 8.3 ± 4.2 Tg for particles in the size range of 2.8–28 μm diameter. We evaluate the results of our model results with a posteriori ash emissions using independent ground-based, airborne and space-borne measurements both in case studies and statistically. Subsequently, we estimate the area over Europe affected by volcanic ash above certain concentration thresholds relevant for the aviation industry. We find that during three episodes in April and May, volcanic ash concentrations at some altitude in the atmosphere exceeded the limits for the "Normal" flying zone in up to 14 % (6–16 %), 2 % (1–3 %) and 7 % (4–11 %), respectively, of the European area. For a limit of 2 mg m−3 only two episodes with fractions of 1.5 % (0.2–2.8 %) and 0.9 % (0.1–1.6 %) occurred, while the current "No-Fly" zone criterion of 4 mg m−3 was rarely exceeded. Our results have important ramifications for determining air space closures and for real-time quantitative estimations of ash concentrations. Furthermore, the general nature of our method yields better constraints on the distribution and fate of volcanic ash in the Earth system.

Revisiting the Krakatau 1883 Volcanic Aerosol Dispersal 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Castro ◽  
Tushar Mittal ◽  
Stephen Self
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Pinatubo Eruption ◽  
The Impact

<p>The 1883 Krakatau eruption is one of the most well-known historical volcanic eruptions due to its significant global climate impact as well as first recorded observations of various aerosol associated optical and physical phenomena. Although much work has been done on the former by comparison of global climate model predictions/ simulations with instrumental and proxy climate records, the latter has surprisingly not been studied in similar detail. In particular, there is a wealth of observations of vivid red sunsets, blue suns, and other similar features, that can be used to analyze the spatio-temporal dispersal of volcanic aerosols in summer to winter 1883. Thus, aerosol cloud dispersal after the Krakatau eruption can be estimated, bolstered by aerosol cloud behavior as monitored by satellite-based instrument observations after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. This is one of a handful of large historic eruptions where this analysis can be done (using non-climate proxy methods). In this study, we model particle trajectories of the Krakatau eruption cloud using the Hysplit trajectory model and compare our results with our compiled observational dataset (principally using Verbeek 1884, the Royal Society report, and Kiessling 1884).</p><p>In particular, we explore the effect of different atmospheric states - the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) which impacts zonal movement of the stratospheric volcanic plume - to estimate the phase of the QBO in 1883 required for a fast-moving westward cloud. Since this alone is unable to match the observed latitudinal spread of the aerosols, we then explore the impact of an  umbrella cloud (2000 km diameter) that almost certainly formed during such a large eruption. A large umbrella cloud, spreading over ~18 degrees within the duration of the climax of the eruption (6-8 hours), can lead to much quicker latitudinal spread than a point source (vent). We will discuss the results of the combined model (umbrella cloud and correct QBO phase) with historical accounts and observations, as well as previous work on the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We also consider the likely impacts of water on aerosol concentrations and the relevance of this process for eruptions with possible significant seawater interactions, like Krakatau. We posit that the role of umbrella clouds is an under-appreciated, but significant, process for beginning to model the climatic impacts of large volcanic eruptions.</p>

scholarly journals Long range transport and fate of a stratospheric volcanic cloud from Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 4657-4672 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. Prata ◽  
S. A. Carn ◽  
A. Stohl ◽  
J. Kerkmann
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Particle Dispersion ◽  
Volcanic Gases ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Soufriere Hills Volcano ◽  
Soufrière Hills Volcano ◽  
Soufriere Hills ◽  
Volcanic Cloud ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions emit gases, ash particles and hydrometeors into the atmosphere, occasionally reaching great heights to reside in the stratospheric overworld where they affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere and the earth's climate. Here we use satellite measurements and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to determine the mass loadings, vertical penetration, horizontal extent, dispersion and transport of volcanic gases and particles in the stratosphere from the volcanic cloud emitted during the 20 May 2006 eruption of Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, West Indies. Infrared, ultraviolet and microwave radiation measurements from two polar orbiters are used to quantify the gases and particles, and track the movement of the cloud for 23 days, over a distance of ~18 000 km. Approximately, 0.1±0.01 Tg(S) was injected into the stratosphere in the form of SO2: the largest single sulfur input to the stratosphere in 2006. Microwave Limb Sounder measurements indicate an enhanced mass of HCl of ~0.003–0.01 Tg. Geosynchronous satellite data reveal the rapid nature of the stratospheric injection and indicate that the eruption cloud contained ~2 Tg of ice, with very little ash reaching the stratosphere. These new satellite measurements of volcanic gases and particles can be used to test the sensitivity of climate to volcanic forcing and assess the impact of stratospheric sulfates on climate cooling.

scholarly journals Increment in the volcanic unrest and number of eruptions after the 2012 large earthquakes sequence in Central America

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gino González ◽  
Eisuke Fujita ◽  
Bunichiro Shibazaki ◽  
Takumi Hayashida ◽  
Giovanni Chiodini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Seismic Waves ◽  
Dynamic Stress ◽  
Reaction Times ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Large Magnitude ◽  
Tectonic Earthquakes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Large Earthquakes

AbstractUnderstanding the relationship cause/effect between tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions is a striking topic in Earth Sciences. Volcanoes erupt with variable reaction times as a consequence of the impact of seismic waves (i.e. dynamic stress) and changes in the stress field (i.e. static stress). In 2012, three large (Mw ≥ 7.3) subduction earthquakes struck Central America within a period of 10 weeks; subsequently, some volcanoes in the region erupted a few days after, while others took months or even years to erupt. Here, we show that these three earthquakes contributed to the increase in the number of volcanic eruptions during the 7 years that followed these seismic events. We found that only those volcanoes that were already in a critical state of unrest eventually erupted, which indicates that the earthquakes only prompted the eruptions. Therefore, we recommend the permanent monitoring of active volcanoes to reveal which are more susceptible to culminate into eruption in the aftermath of the next large-magnitude earthquake hits a region.

scholarly journals Revisiting the statistical analysis of pyroclast density and porosity data

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1077-1095 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Bernard ◽  
U. Kueppers ◽  
H. Ortiz
Keyword(s):  
Grain Size ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Large Datasets ◽  
Grain Size Analysis ◽  
Size Analysis ◽  
Statistical Tools ◽  
Statistical Relevance ◽  
Volcanic Deposits ◽  
Working Groups ◽  
Explosive Volcanic Eruptions

Abstract. Explosive volcanic eruptions are commonly characterized based on a thorough analysis of the generated deposits. Amongst other characteristics in physical volcanology, density and porosity of juvenile clasts are some of the most frequently used characteristics to constrain eruptive dynamics. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of density and porosity data and introduce a weighting parameter to correct issues raised by the use of frequency analysis. Results of textural investigation can be biased by clast selection. Using statistical tools as presented here, the meaningfulness of a conclusion can be checked for any dataset easily. This is necessary to define whether or not a sample has met the requirements for statistical relevance, i.e. whether a dataset is large enough to allow for reproducible results. Graphical statistics are used to describe density and porosity distributions, similar to those used for grain-size analysis. This approach helps with the interpretation of volcanic deposits. To illustrate this methodology we chose two large datasets: (1) directed blast deposits of the 3640–3510 BC eruption of Chachimbiro volcano (Ecuador) and (2) block-and-ash-flow deposits of the 1990–1995 eruption of Unzen volcano (Japan). We propose add the use of this analysis for future investigations to check the objectivity of results achieved by different working groups and guarantee the meaningfulness of the interpretation.

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