Impact of tiered restrictions on human activities and the epidemiology of the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy

AbstractTo counter the second COVID-19 wave in autumn 2020, the Italian government introduced a system of physical distancing measures organized in progressively restrictive tiers (coded as yellow, orange, and red) imposed on a regional basis according to real-time epidemiological risk assessments. We leverage the data from the Italian COVID-19 integrated surveillance system and publicly available mobility data to evaluate the impact of the three-tiered regional restriction system on human activities, SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and hospitalization burden in Italy. The individuals’ attendance to locations outside the residential settings was progressively reduced with tiers, but less than during the national lockdown against the first COVID-19 wave in the spring. The reproduction number R(t) decreased below the epidemic threshold in 85 out of 107 provinces after the introduction of the tier system, reaching average values of about 0.95-1.02 in the yellow tier, 0.80-0.93 in the orange tier and 0.74-0.83 in the red tier. We estimate that the reduced transmissibility resulted in averting about 36% of the hospitalizations between November 6 and November 25, 2020. These results are instrumental to inform public health efforts aimed at preventing future resurgence of cases.

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Impact of tiered restrictions on human activities and the epidemiology of the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy

10.1101/2021.01.10.21249532 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Mattia Manica ◽

Giorgio Guzzetta ◽

Flavia Riccardo ◽

Antonio Valenti ◽

Piero Poletti ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Reproduction Number ◽

Risk Assessments ◽

Epidemic Threshold ◽

Residential Settings ◽

Italian Government ◽

Tier System ◽

Epidemiological Risk ◽

Yellow Orange ◽

Regional Basis ◽

Second Wave

To counter the second COVID-19 wave in autumn 2020, the Italian government introduced a system of physical distancing measures organized in progressively restrictive tiers (coded as yellow, orange, and red) and imposed on a regional basis according to epidemiological risk assessments. The individuals' attendance to locations outside the residential settings was progressively reduced with tiers, but less than during the national lockdown against the first COVID-19 wave in the spring. The reproduction number Rt decreased below the epidemic threshold in 85 out of 107 provinces after the introduction of the tier system, reaching average values of about 0.99, 0.89 and 0.77 in the yellow, orange and red tier, respectively. We estimate that the reduced transmissibility resulted in averting about 37% of the hospitalizations between November 5 and November 25, 2020. These results are instrumental to inform public health efforts aimed at preventing future resurgence of cases.

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The tiered restrictions enforced in November 2020 did not impact the epidemiology of the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy.

10.1101/2021.09.02.21263035 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Maurizio Rainisio

Keyword(s):

Full Detail ◽

Alternative Analysis ◽

Daily Growth ◽

Epidemic Curve ◽

Country Level ◽

Epidemiological Risk ◽

Containment Measures ◽

Yellow Orange ◽

Regional Basis ◽

The Impact

In the attempt to counter the second COVID-19 wave in autumn 2020, the Italian government introduced a unique countrywide system of physical distancing measures organized in progressively restrictive tiers (coded as yellow, orange, and red) imposed on a regional basis according to epidemiological risk assessments. This followed a set of other scattered or limited measures described in full detail by Manica et al.1. This paper concerns the introduction of the tiered restrictions. The data used to evaluate the impact of the restriction system on SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and hospitalization burden in Italy is from the Italian COVID-19 integrated surveillance system. The reproduction number R(t) estimated on the onset of COViD-19 symptoms constantly decreased during most of the observation period 04 October 2020 - 06 December 2020 than is centered on the date of introduction of the measures and includes the expected latency to reach an effect. The fastest decrease of R(t) occurred in the period preceding the introduction of the tiered restrictions. There was no evidence that introducing the tiered restrictions determined the reduction of R(t). An alternative analysis using the daily growth rate of the epidemic curve confirms these conclusions. Similar considerations are made concerning the health system burden, analyzing hospitalizations at country level. The trend of R(t) tending to increase shortly after the measures became effective does not allow to exclude that the enforcement of such restrictions might have been counterproductive. These results are instrumental in informing public health efforts aimed at attempting to manage the epidemic efficiently. Planning further use of the tiered restrictions and the associated containment measures should be carefully and critically revised to avoid a useless burden to the population with no advantage for the containment of the epidemic or a possible worsening.

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How Schools affected COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy: Data Analysis for Lombardy Region, Campania Region, and Emilia Region

10.20944/preprints202103.0623.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Davide Tosi ◽

Alessandro Siro Campi

Keyword(s):

Geographical Area ◽

Clear Correlation ◽

Campania Region ◽

Lombardy Region ◽

Epidemic Curve ◽

Mobility Data ◽

Emilia Romagna Region ◽

Opening And Closing ◽

The Impact ◽

Second Wave

Background: CoronaVirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the main discussed topic world-wide in 2020 and at the beginning of the Italian epidemic, scientists tried to understand the virus diffusion and the epidemic curve of positive cases with controversial findings and numbers. Objectives: In this paper, a data analytics study on the diffusion of COVID-19 in Lombardy Region and Campania Region is developed in order to identify the driver that sparked the second wave in Italy Methods: Starting from all the available official data collected about the diffusion of COVID-19, we analyzed google mobility data, school data and infection data for two big regions in Italy: Lombardy Region and Campania Region, which adopted two different approaches in opening and closing schools. To reinforce our findings, we also extended the analysis to the Emilia Romagna Region. Results: The paper aims at showing how different policies adopted in school opening / closing may have on the impact on the COVID-19 spread. Conclusions: The paper shows that a clear correlation exists between the school contagion and the subsequent temporal overall contagion in a geographical area.

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Socio-economic indicators correlate with daily mobility during the second-wave of the Covid-19 pandemic

10.31235/osf.io/tca34 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jed Long ◽

Chang Ren

Keyword(s):

Positive Association ◽

Economic Indicators ◽

Mobility Patterns ◽

Mobility Data ◽

Individual Mobility ◽

Mobility Behaviour ◽

The Impact ◽

Second Wave ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽

Over Time

Non-pharmaceutical interventions are being used globally to limit the spread of Covid-19, which are in turn affecting individual mobility patterns. Mobility measures were found to be strongly associated with regional socio-economic indicators during the first wave of the pandemic. Here, we use network mobility data from an ~3.5 million person sample of individuals in Ontario, Canada to study the association between three different individual-mobility measures and four socio-economic indicators throughout the first and second wave of Covid-19 (January to December 2020). We demonstrate that understanding how mobility behaviours have changed in response to Covid-19 varies considerably depending on how mobility is measured. We find a strong positive association between different mobility levels and the economic deprivation index, which demonstrates that inequities in the changes to mobility across economic gradients observed during the initial lockdown have persisted into the later stages of the pandemic. However, the associations between mobility and other socio-economic indicators vary over time. We capture a strong day-of-week pattern of association between socio-economic indicators and mobility levels. Our findings have important implications for understanding if and how mobility data should be used to study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the socio-economic conditions across geographical space, and over time. Our results support that Covid-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions have resulted in geographically disparate responses to mobility behaviour, and quantifying mobility changes at fine geographical scales is crucial to understanding the impacts of Covid-19 on local populations.

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Evaluation of Work Resumption Strategies after COVID-19 Reopening in the Chinese City of Shenzhen: A Mathematical Modeling Study

10.21203/rs.3.rs-85395/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Lu Bai ◽

Haonan Lu ◽

Hailin Hu ◽

M. Kumi Smith ◽

Katherine Harripersaud ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Population Control ◽

Epidemiological Data ◽

Population Mobility ◽

Mobility Data ◽

Intervention Measures ◽

Imported Cases ◽

High Level ◽

The Impact ◽

Second Wave ◽

Work Resumption

Abstract BackgroundAs China is facing a potential second wave of the epidemic, we reviewed and evaluated the intervention measures implemented in a major metropolitan city, Shenzhen, during the early phase of Wuhan lockdown. MethodsBased on published epidemiological data on COVID-19 and population mobility data from Baidu Qianxi, we constructed a compartmental model to evaluate the impact of work and traffic resumption on the epidemic in Shenzhen in various scenarios.ResultsImported cases account for the majority (58.6%) of the early reported cases in Shenzhen. We demonstrated that with strict inflow population control and a high level of mask usage following work resumption, various resumption schemes resulted in only an insignificant difference in the number of cumulative infections. Shenzhen may experience this second wave of infections approximately two weeks after the traffic resumption if the incidence risk in Hubei is high at the moment of resumption.ConclusionControl of imported cases and extensive use of facial masks were the key for the prevention of the COVID-19 epidemic in Shenzhen during its reopening and work resumption.

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Modeling the impact of social distancing, testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second-wave scenarios of the COVID-19 epidemic

10.1101/2020.05.06.20092841 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

Alberto Aleta ◽

David Martin-Corral ◽

Ana Pastore y Piontti ◽

Marco Ajelli ◽

Maria Litvinova ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Health Care ◽

Health Care System ◽

Demographic Data ◽

Herd Immunity ◽

Contact Tracing ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Mobility Data ◽

The Impact ◽

Second Wave ◽

Care System

The new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has required the implementation of severe mobility restrictions and social distancing measures worldwide. While these measures have been proven effective in abating the epidemic in several countries, it is important to estimate the effectiveness of testing and tracing strategies to avoid a potential second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. We integrate highly detailed (anonymized, privacy-enhanced) mobility data from mobile devices, with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model to describe the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that enforcing strict social distancing followed by a policy based on a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine, could keep the disease at a level that does not exceed the capacity of the health care system. Assuming the identification of 50% of the symptomatic infections, and the tracing of 40% of their contacts and households, which corresponds to about 9% of individuals quarantined, the ensuing reduction in transmission allows the reopening of economic activities while attaining a manageable impact on the health care system. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can play a major role in relaxing social distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

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River-Basin Planning for Control of Nitrate Pollution

Water Science & Technology ◽

10.2166/wst.1982.0102 ◽

1982 ◽

Vol 14 (4-5) ◽

pp. 245-252 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

C S Sinnott ◽

D G Jamieson

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Resource ◽

Potable Water ◽

Potential Problem ◽

Nitrate Pollution ◽

Optimal Mix ◽

Regional Basis ◽

The Impact

The combination of increasing nitrate concentrations in the River Thames and the recent EEC Directive on the acceptable level in potable water is posing a potential problem. In assessing the impact of nitrates on water-resource systems, extensive use has been made of time-series analysis and simulation. These techniques are being used to define the optimal mix of alternatives for overcoming the problem on a regional basis.

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Fluvial Geomorphology and River Management

Water ◽

10.3390/w13111608 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (11) ◽

pp. 1608

Author(s):

Salvatore Ivo Giano

Keyword(s):

Human Activities ◽

River Restoration ◽

Fluvial Geomorphology ◽

Landscape Evolution ◽

River Management ◽

Special Issue ◽

Fluvial Systems ◽

The Impact

This Special Issue deals with the role of fluvial geomorphology in landscape evolution and the impact of human activities on fluvial systems, which require river restoration and management [...]

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Impact of COVID-19 on workload burden of a complex radiotherapy facility

La radiologia medica ◽

10.1007/s11547-021-01338-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 126 (5) ◽

pp. 717-721

Author(s):

Giulio Francolini ◽

Isacco Desideri ◽

Giulia Stocchi ◽

Lucia Pia Ciccone ◽

Viola Salvestrini ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Disease Transmission ◽

Daily Activity ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Health Workers ◽

Treatment Delivery ◽

Actual Time ◽

Italian Government ◽

Significant Difference ◽

The Impact ◽

Observation Period

Abstract Background and purpose COVID-19 constitutes a worldwide threat, prompting Italian Government to implement specific measures on March 8, 2020, to protect patients and health workers from disease transmission. The impact of preventive measures on daily activity of a radiotherapy facility may hamper the ability to fulfill normal workload burden. Thus, we assessed the number of delivered treatments in a specific observation period after the adoption of preventive measures (since March 11 to April 24, 2020) and compared it with the corresponding period of the year 2019. Materials and methods Overall number of delivered fractions was related to actual time of platform daily activity and reported as a ratio between number of delivered fractions and activity hours (Fr/Hrs). Fr/Hrs were calculated and compared for two different periods of time, March 11–April 24, 2019 (Fr/Hrs1), and March 11–April 24, 2020 (Fr/Hrs2). Results Fr/Hrs1 and Fr/Hrs2 were 2.66 and 2.54 for year 2019 and 2020, respectively, for a Fr/Hrsratio of 1.07 (95% CI 1.03–1.12, p = 0.0005). Fr/Hrs1 was significantly higher than Fr/Hrs2 for SliR and PreciseR, with Fr/Hrsratio of 1.92 (95% CI 1.66–2.23, p < 0.0001) and 1.11 (95% CI 1.03–1.2, p = 0.003), respectively. No significant difference was reported for SynergyR and CyberknifeR with Fr/Hrsratio of 0.99 (95% CI 0.91–1.08, p = 0.8) and 0.9 (95% CI 0.77–1.06, p = 0.2), respectively. Fr/Hrs1 was significantly lower than Fr/Hrs2 for TomotherapyR, with Fr/Hrsratio of 0.88 (95% CI 0.8–0.96, p = 0.007). Conclusion Preventive measures did not influence workload burden performed. Automation in treatment delivery seems to compensate effectively for health workers number reduction.

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Beyond the Pandemic: COVID-19 Pandemic Changed the Face of Life

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18115645 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (11) ◽

pp. 5645

Author(s):

Shaden A. M. Khalifa ◽

Mahmoud M. Swilam ◽

Aida A. Abd El-Wahed ◽

Ming Du ◽

Haged H. R. El-Seedi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Human Activities ◽

Social Life ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Mental Wellbeing ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Population Movements ◽

Social Distancing ◽

The Face ◽

The Impact ◽

Positive Impacts

The COVID-19 pandemic is a serious challenge for societies around the globe as entire populations have fallen victim to the infectious spread and have taken up social distancing. In many countries, people have had to self-isolate and to be confined to their homes for several weeks to months to prevent the spread of the virus. Social distancing measures have had both negative and positive impacts on various aspects of economies, lifestyles, education, transportation, food supply, health, social life, and mental wellbeing. On other hands, due to reduced population movements and the decline in human activities, gas emissions decreased and the ozone layer improved; this had a positive impact on Earth’s weather and environment. Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic has negative effects on human activities and positive impacts on nature. This study discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on different life aspects including the economy, social life, health, education, and the environment.

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