scholarly journals The effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy and perspectives for living with the virus

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentina Marziano ◽  
Giorgio Guzzetta ◽  
Alessia Mammone ◽  
Flavia Riccardo ◽  
Piero Poletti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Age Classes ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Substantial Uncertainty

AbstractCOVID-19 vaccination is allowing a progressive release of restrictions worldwide. Using a mathematical model, we assess the impact of vaccination in Italy since December 27, 2020 and evaluate prospects for societal reopening after emergence of the Delta variant. We estimate that by June 30, 2021, COVID-19 vaccination allowed the resumption of about half of pre-pandemic social contacts. In absence of vaccination, the same number of cases is obtained by resuming only about one third of pre-pandemic contacts, with about 12,100 (95% CI: 6,600-21,000) extra deaths (+27%; 95% CI: 15–47%). Vaccination offset the effect of the Delta variant in summer 2021. The future epidemic trend is surrounded by substantial uncertainty. Should a pediatric vaccine (for ages 5 and older) be licensed and a coverage >90% be achieved in all age classes, a return to pre-pandemic society could be envisioned. Increasing vaccination coverage will allow further reopening even in absence of a pediatric vaccine.

scholarly journals Measles elimination in Italy: projected impact of the National Elimination Plan

2004 ◽  
Vol 133 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. MANFREDI ◽  
J. R. WILLIAMS ◽  
M. L. CIOFI DEGLI ATTI ◽  
S. SALMASO
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Measles Vaccine ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Measles Elimination ◽  
Catch Up ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Below Replacement Fertility

A mathematical model was used to evaluate the impact of the Italian Measles National Elimination Plan (NEP), and possible sources of failure in achieving its targets. The model considered two different estimates of force of infection, and the possible effect on measles transmission of the current Italian demographic situation, characterized by a below-replacement fertility. Results suggest that reaching all NEP targets will allow measles elimination to be achieved. In addition, the model suggests that achieving elimination by reaching a 95% first-dose coverage appears unlikely; and that conducting catch-up activities, reaching high vaccination coverage, could interrupt virus circulation, but could not prevent the infection re-emerging before 2020. Also, the introduction of the second dose of measles vaccine seems necessary for achieving and maintaining elimination. Furthermore, current Italian demography appears to be favourable for reaching elimination.

scholarly journals Modeling the early phase of the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using a stochastic compartmental model and studying its implied future trajectories

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Abrams ◽  
James Wambua ◽  
Eva Santermans ◽  
Lander Willem ◽  
Elise Kuylen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Admission Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
Belgian Population ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Population ◽  
Mcmc Approach

AbstractFollowing the onset of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic throughout the world, a large fraction of the global population is or has been under strict measures of physical distancing and quarantine, with many countries being in partial or full lockdown. These measures are imposed in order to reduce the spread of the disease and to lift the pressure on healthcare systems. Estimating the impact of such interventions as well as monitoring the gradual relaxing of these stringent measures is quintessential to understand how resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic can be controlled for in the future. In this paper we use a stochastic age-structured discrete time compartmental model to describe the transmission of COVID-19 in Belgium. Our model explicitly accounts for age-structure by integrating data on social contacts to (i) assess the impact of the lockdown as implemented on March 13, 2020 on the number of new hospitalizations in Belgium; (ii) conduct a scenario analysis estimating the impact of possible exit strategies on potential future COVID-19 waves. More specifically, the aforementioned model is fitted to hospital admission data, data on the daily number of COVID-19 deaths and serial serological survey data informing the (sero)prevalence of the disease in the population while relying on a Bayesian MCMC approach. Our age-structured stochastic model describes the observed outbreak data well, both in terms of hospitalizations as well as COVID-19 related deaths in the Belgian population. Despite an extensive exploration of various projections for the future course of the epidemic, based on the impact of adherence to measures of physical distancing and a potential increase in contacts as a result of the relaxation of the stringent lockdown measures, a lot of uncertainty remains about the evolution of the epidemic in the next months.

Pengaruh Budaya Terhadap Akuntansi, Auditing Dan Praktik Akuntansi Internasional

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-95
Author(s):  
Priyastiwi Priyastiwi
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Values ◽  
Leadership Style ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
National Level ◽  
Deep Understanding ◽  
Cultural Dimensions ◽  
Financial Disclosure ◽  
Cross Cultural Differences ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this article is to provide the basic model of Hofstede and Grays’ cultural values that relates the Hofstede’s cultural dimensions and Gray‘s accounting value. This article reviews some studies that prove the model and develop the research in the future. There are some evidences that link the Hofstede’s cultural values studies with the auditor’s judgment and decisions by developing a framework that categorizes the auditor’s judgments and decisions are most likely influenced by cross-cultural differences. The categories include risk assessment, risk decisions and ethical judgments. Understanding the impact of cultural factors on the practice of accounting and financial disclosure is important to achieve the harmonization of international accounting. Deep understanding about how the local values may affect the accounting practices and their impacts on the financial disclosure are important to ensure the international comparability of financial reporting. Gray’s framework (1988) expects how the culture may affect accounting practices at the national level. One area of the future studies will examine the impact of cultural dimensions to the values of accounting, auditing and decision making. Key word : Motivation, leadership style, job satisfaction, performance

The Impact of Light Polarisation on Light Field of Scenes with Multiple Reflections

2020 ◽  
pp. 108-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir P. Budak ◽  
Anton V. Grimaylo
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Light Field ◽  
Global Illumination ◽  
Multiple Reflections ◽  
Software Environment ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Mueller Matrices ◽  
Volume Integration ◽  
The Impact

The article describes the role of polarisation in calculation of multiple reflections. A mathematical model of multiple reflections based on the Stokes vector for beam description and Mueller matrices for description of surface properties is presented. On the basis of this model, the global illumination equation is generalised for the polarisation case and is resolved into volume integration. This allows us to obtain an expression for the Monte Carlo method local estimates and to use them for evaluation of light distribution in the scene with consideration of polarisation. The obtained mathematical model was implemented in the software environment using the example of a scene with its surfaces having both diffuse and regular components of reflection. The results presented in the article show that the calculation difference may reach 30 % when polarisation is taken into consideration as compared to standard modelling.

A Study on the Impact of Family-friendly Certification on Financial Performance of SMEs: Focusing on the Manufacturing Industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-12
Author(s):  
Ok-Hee Park ◽  
Kwan-sik Na ◽  
Seok-Kee Lee
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Family Life ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Work And Family ◽  
Family Friendly ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Background/Objectives: The purpose of the paper is to examine how family-friendly certificates introduced to pursue the compatibility of work and family life affect the financial performance of small and medium-sized manufacturers, and to provide useful information to companies considering the introduction of this system in the future.

TSUNAMI ACEH 2004 SEBAGAI DASAR PENATAAN RUANG KOTA MEULABOH

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wisyanto Wisyanto
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Area ◽  
Building Damage ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
The Road ◽  
Tsunami Disaster ◽  
Landuse Planning ◽  
The Future ◽  
Tsunami Mitigation ◽  
Potential Losses ◽  
The Impact

Tsunami which was generated by the 2004 Aceh eartquake has beenhaunting our life. The building damage due to the tsunami could be seenthroughout Meulaboh Coastal Area. Appearing of the physical loss wasclose to our fault. It was caused by the use dan plan of the land withoutconsidering a tsunami disaster threat. Learning from that event, we haveconducted a research on the pattern of damage that caused by the 2004tsunami. Based on the analysis of tsunami hazard intensity and thepattern of building damage, it has been made a landuse planning whichbased on tsunami mitigation for Meulaboh. Tsunami mitigation-based ofMeulaboh landuse planning was made by intergrating some aspects, suchas tsunami protection using pandanus greenbelt, embankment along withhigh plants and also arranging the direction of roads and setting of building forming a rhombus-shaped. The rhombus-shaped of setting of the road and building would reduce the impact of tsunamic wave. It is expected that these all comprehensive landuse planning will minimize potential losses in the future .

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