scholarly journals Data based model for predicting COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in metropolis

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Demian da Silveira Barcellos ◽  
Giovane Matheus Kayser Fernandes ◽  
Fábio Teodoro de Souza
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Scientific Analysis ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Epidemic Diseases

AbstractThere is an ongoing need for scientific analysis to help governments and public health authorities make decisions regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. This article presents a methodology based on data mining that can offer support for coping with epidemic diseases. The methodological approach was applied in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Manaus, the cities in Brazil with the most COVID-19 deaths until the first half of 2021. We aimed to predict the evolution of COVID-19 in metropolises and identify air quality and meteorological variables correlated with confirmed cases and deaths. The statistical analyses indicated the most important explanatory environmental variables, while the cluster analyses showed the potential best input variables for the forecasting models. The forecast models were built by two different algorithms and their results have been compared. The relationship between epidemiological and environmental variables was particular to each of the three cities studied. Low solar radiation periods predicted in Manaus can guide managers to likely increase deaths due to COVID-19. In São Paulo, an increase in the mortality rate can be indicated by drought periods. The developed models can predict new cases and deaths by COVID-19 in studied cities. Furthermore, the methodological approach can be applied in other cities and for other epidemic diseases.

scholarly journals COVID-19 morbidity and mortality forecast in megalopolis: a data approach to public health management in São Paulo, Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Demian da Silveira Barcellos ◽  
Giovane Matheus Kayser Fernandes ◽  
Fabio Teodoro de Souza
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Epidemic Diseases

Abstract The need for a scientific approach that can provide subsidies to governments and public health authorities in decision making to face pandemics, epidemics and endemics was one of the aspects recognized worldwide with the first wave of COVID-19. This article presents a methodology for the application of data mining as a support tool for coping with epidemic diseases. The methodological approach was applied in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, with the aim of predicting the evolution of COVID-19 in the metropolis and identifying air quality and meteorological variables correlated with confirmed cases and deaths from the coronavirus. Forecasting public health conditions is useful for preparing health teams in advance for a pandemic to prevent the system from collapsing. The statistical analyzes indicated the most important explanatory environmental variables, while the cluster analyzes showed which are the best input variables for the forecasting models. The forecast models were built by two different algorithms, J48 (C4.5) and CBA, and their results have been compared. The models developed can be used to predict new cases and deaths by COVID-19 in São Paulo. The methodological approach can be applied in other cities and for other epidemic diseases.

scholarly journals Double Trouble: Dengue Followed by COVID-19 Infection Acquired in Two Different Regions: A Doctor’s Case Report and Spatial Distribution of Cases in Presidente Prudente, São Paulo, Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 156
Author(s):  
Sérgio Munhoz Pereira ◽  
Charlene Troiani do Nascimento ◽  
Rodrigo Sala Ferro ◽  
Edilson Ferreira Flores ◽  
Elaine Aparecida Maldonado Bertacco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Case Report ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Care Workers ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
The City

Co-epidemics of COVID-19 and dengue in dengue-endemic countries represent a serious public health concern. In Brazil, São Paulo state ranks first for cases and deaths from COVID-19, and dengue is endemic in most regions of the country. In 2020, an outbreak of dengue occurred in western São Paulo. We determined the spatiotemporal distribution of dengue in the context of COVID-19 cases in Presidente Prudente, a mid-sized city in western São Paulo. To illustrate the burden of both infections, a case report of a doctor and his family, infected with dengue and COVID-19, is presented. There were three clusters of dengue and COVID-19 in the periphery. A dengue cluster was found in a region where there were no corresponding COVID-19 cases. Meanwhile, there were COVID-19 clusters where dengue activity was lower. In 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic emerged when dengue reached its seasonal peak, resulting in a simultaneous outbreak of both diseases. Lower rates of dengue were found in the city compared with 2019, and the fear of patients with mild dengue symptoms about remaining in hospital and acquiring COVID-19 infection may be the main cause. Simultaneous spatial clusters of dengue and COVID-19 in environmentally and socioeconomically vulnerable areas can guide public health authorities in intensive interventions to improve clinical diagnosis, epidemiological surveillance, and management of both diseases. The patient and his family were first infected with dengue and he then carried COVID-19 to his family, reinforcing the risk of health care workers spreading the virus to the community. We highlight the epidemiological significance of presenting a case report and spatial analysis of COVID-19 in the same study in the context of a dengue outbreak.

scholarly journals A retrospective serologic survey of hantavirus infections in the county of Cássia dos Coqueiros, State of São Paulo, Brazil

2012 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 468-470 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soraya Jabur Badra ◽  
Felipe Gonçalves Mota Maia ◽  
Glauciane Garcia Figueiredo ◽  
Gilberto Sabino dos Santos Junior ◽  
Gelse Mazzoni Campos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
The State ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Brachiaria Decumbens ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Positive Results ◽  
Araraquara Virus

INTRODUCTION: In recent years, hantavirus infections producing severe diseases have obtained an increased attention from public health authorities from the countries of Eurasia to the Americas. Brazil has reported 1,300 cases of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) from 1993 to 2010, with about 80 of them occurring in the northeast of the State of São Paulo, with 48% fatality rate. Araraquara virus was the causative agent of HCPS in the region. Considering that hantaviruses causing human disease in the Americas were unknown until 1993, we have looked for hantavirus infections in the population of Cássia dos Coqueiros county, northeast of the State of São Paulo, Brazil, before this time. This county has about 2,800 inhabitants and an economy based on agriculture, including cultivation of Brachiaria decumbens grass. The grass seeds are an important rodent attraction, facilitating transmission of hantavirus to man. Four HCPS cases were reported so far in the county. METHODS: In this study, 1,876 sera collected from 1987 to 1990 were tested for IgG to hantavirus by IgG-ELISA, using the N recombinant protein of Araraquara virus as antigen. RESULTS: Positive results were observed in 89 (4.7%) samples, which were all collected in 1987. The positivity among urban inhabitants was 5.3%, compared with 4.3% among those living in rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that hantavirus infections occurred in Cássia dos Coqueiros, completely unrecognized, even before hantaviruses were described in the Americas.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Amaku ◽  
Dimas Tadeu Covas ◽  
Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho ◽  
Raymundo Soares Azevedo ◽  
Eduardo Massad
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
The State ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
The World ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background At the moment we have more than 177 million cases and 3.8 million deaths (as of June 2021) around the world and vaccination represents the only hope to control the pandemic. Imperfections in planning vaccine acquisition and difficulties in implementing distribution among the population, however, have hampered the control of the virus so far. Methods We propose a new mathematical model to estimate the impact of vaccination delay against the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the number of cases and deaths due to the disease in Brazil. We apply the model to Brazil as a whole and to the State of Sao Paulo, the most affected by COVID-19 in Brazil. We simulated the model for the populations of the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole, varying the scenarios related to vaccine efficacy and compliance from the populations. Results The model projects that, in the absence of vaccination, almost 170 thousand deaths and more than 350 thousand deaths will occur by the end of 2021 for Sao Paulo and Brazil, respectively. If in contrast, Sao Paulo and Brazil had enough vaccine supply and so started a vaccination campaign in January with the maximum vaccination rate, compliance and efficacy, they could have averted more than 112 thousand deaths and 127 thousand deaths, respectively. In addition, for each month of delay the number of deaths increases monotonically in a logarithmic fashion, for both the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole. Conclusions Our model shows that the current delay in the vaccination schedules that is observed in many countries has serious consequences in terms of mortality by the disease and should serve as an alert to health authorities to speed the process up such that the highest number of people to be immunized is reached in the shortest period of time.

scholarly journals Municipalities of higher vulnerability to Sylvatic Yellow Fever occurrence in the São Paulo State, Brazil

2011 ◽  
Vol 53 (6) ◽  
pp. 335-339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Stramandinoli Moreno ◽  
Rita de Cássia Barradas Barata
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Yellow Fever ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Multiple Correspondence Analysis ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
São Paulo State ◽  
Yellow Fever Vaccination

Until 1999 the endemic cases of Sylvatic Yellow Fever were located in the states of northern, midwestern and pre-Amazon regions. Since then, the disease progressively expanded its territory of occurrence, cases being registered beyond the traditional boundaries of endemism. The São Paulo State is considered to be part of this context, since after decades without registration of autochthonous cases of the disease, it reported, in 2000 and 2008-2009, epizootic occurrence in non-human primates and 30 cases in humans. Facts like these, added to the increase in incidences of serious adverse effects resulting from the Yellow Fever vaccination, have highlighted the importance of defining priority municipalities for vaccination against the disease in the state. Two groups of municipalities, some affected and some non-affected by YF, were compared for environmental variables related to the eco-epidemiology of the disease according to literature. The Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) was used to pinpoint the factor able to differentiate the two groups of municipalities and define the levels of risk. The southeast region of the São Paulo State was considered to be the area with a higher number of municipalities classified as high risk and should be considered a priority for the application of prevention measures against Yellow Fever.

scholarly journals Protozooplankton and its relationship with environmental conditions in 13 water bodies of the Mogi-Guaçu basin - SP, Brazil

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 152-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inessa Lacativa Bagatini ◽  
Ana Lúcia Gerardi Spínola ◽  
Bianca de Miranda Peres ◽  
Adrislaine da Silva Mansano ◽  
Mafalda Alexandra Antunes Rodrigues ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Bromophenol Blue ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
Two Samples ◽  
São Paulo State ◽  
Biological Aspects ◽  
The Mean

Protozooplankton is an important component of the aquatic microbial food webs and its composition, density, and distribution reflect the chemical, physical, and biological aspects of the environment. Considering the scarce literature on freshwater protozoans in Brazil and on protozoan ecology in subtropical environments, we listed the ciliates and amoebae taxa found in 13 water bodies in São Paulo State and analyzed their abundance in relation to the environmental variables. We collected two samples in each environment, fixed immediately with mercuric chloride and stained with bromophenol blue. After microscopical analysis, 74 protozoan genera were identified and the Ciliophora were dominant in the majority of the environments. The Stichotrichia, represented mostly by the genus Halteria, occurred in all environments, and was the dominant subclass in five of them. The canonic correspondence analysis of the most frequent genera and the environmental variables showed that nitrite and nitrate were the variables that better explained the distribution of Limnostrombidium, Urotricha, and Vorticella. The densities of the genera Halteria, Coleps, and of the species Cinetochilum margaritaceum were positively affected by increasing concentrations of dissolved oxygen, particulate phosphate, conductivity, and temperature. C. margaritaceum were also negatively affected by increasing concentrations of nitrite and nitrate. Considering that we made only one sampling in each environment, the richness was high compared to the mean diversity of lakes in the São Paulo State. The Diogo Lake, located in an ecological reserve, was the richest one, confirming the need of more research on the biodiversity of more preserved environments.

scholarly journals A model-based design of a vaccination strategy against rubella in a non-immunized community of São Paulo State, Brazil

1994 ◽  
Vol 112 (3) ◽  
pp. 579-594 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Massad ◽  
M. Nascimento Burattini ◽  
R. S. De Azevedo Neto ◽  
Hyun Mo Yang ◽  
F. A. B. Coutinho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Local Health ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Pulse Vaccination ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Mathematical Techniques ◽  
Local Health Authorities

SUMMARYA mixed vaccination strategy against rubella is proposed. We describe how the vaccination strategy was designed with the help of mathematical techniques. The strategy was designed for application in a non-immunized community of the State of São Paulo, Brazil, and was implemented by local health authorities in 1992. This strategy comprises a pulse vaccination campaign, covering the age interval between 1 and 10 years, followed by the introduction of the vaccine in the immunization calendar at 15 months of age. The expected impact of the proposed strategy is discussed.

scholarly journals A Literacia Probabilística na Perspectiva da Teoria Histórico-Cultural

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (11) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Adriane Buchwitz Del TREJO
Keyword(s):  
Elementary Education ◽  
Cultural Theory ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Educational Practice ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Early Years ◽  
Social Aspect ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
The Social ◽  
Bibliographic Study

Considerando que o homem é um sujeito histórico e social, este estudo bibliográfico possui uma abordagem metodológica de natureza qualitativa e delineamento descritivo explicativo, que tem como objetivo de relacionar os pressupostos da Teoria Histórico-Cultural (THC) com o ensino de Probabilidade nos anos iniciais do Ensino Fundamental focando no desenvolvimento da literacia probabilística e fazendo apontamentos correlacionando-os com referenciais curriculares. Assim, no decorrer do texto, tem-se a intenção do diálogo entre conceitos e ideias da Teoria Histórico-Cultural com os elementos cognitivos relacionados à literacia probabilística, apontando considerações dos referenciais curriculares do estado de São Paulo e nacionais. Como principais resultados, temos que os pressupostos desta teoria podem contribuir para uma prática educativa que priorize o aspecto social e para a aquisição de um conhecimento mais rico, mais ativo e mais significativo ao aluno.Teoria Histórico-Cultural. Ensino de Probabilidade. Literacia Probabilística. Anos Iniciais. Ensino Fundamental.ABSTRACTConsidering that man is a historical and social subject, this bibliographic study has a qualitative methodological approach and explanatory descriptive design, which aims to relate the assumptions of Historical-Cultural Theory (THC) with the teaching of Probability in the early years of Elementary Education focusing on the development of probabilistic literacy and making notes correlating them with curricular references. Thus, throughout the text, the intention is to dialogue between concepts and ideas of Historical-Cultural Theory with the cognitive elements related to probabilistic literacy, pointing out considerations of the curricular frameworks of the state of São Paulo and nationally. As main results, we have that the assumptions of this theory can contribute to an educational practice that prioritizes the social aspect and to the acquisition of a richer, more active and more meaningful knowledge to the student.Historical-Cultural Theory. Probability Teaching. Probabilistic Literacy. Early Years. Elementary School.RESUMENConsiderando que el hombre es un sujeto histórico y social, este estudio bibliográfico tiene un enfoque metodológico de naturaleza cualitativa y diseño descriptivo explicativo, cuyo objetivo es relacionar los presupuestos de la teoría histórico-cultural (THC) con la enseñanza de la probabilidad en los primeros años de la escuela primaria centrados en el desarrollo de la literacia probabilística tomando notas y correlacionándolas con referencias curriculares. Por lo tanto, a lo largo del texto, la intención es dialogar entre conceptos e ideas de la teoría histórico-cultural con los elementos cognitivos relacionados con la literacia probabilística, señalando consideraciones de las referencias curriculares del estado de São Paulo y nacionales. Como resultados principales, tenemos que los presupuestos de esta teoría pueden contribuir con una práctica educativa que prioriza el aspecto social y la adquisición de un conocimiento más rico, más activo y más significativo para el estudiante.Teoría Histórico-Cultural. Enseñanza de Probabilidad. Literacia Probabilística. Años Iniciales. Enseñanza Fundamental. RIASSUNTOConsiderando che l'uomo è un soggetto storico e sociale, questo studio bibliografico ha un approccio metodologico qualitativo e un disegno descrittivo esplicativo, che mira a mettere in relazione le ipotesi della teoria storico-culturale (THC) con l'insegnamento della Probabilità nel primi anni di scuola elementare concentrandosi sullo sviluppola literacia probabilistica e prendendo appunti correlandoli con i riferimenti al curriculum. Pertanto, in tutto il testo, l'intenzione è quella di dialogare tra concetti e idee della teoria storico-culturale con gli elementi cognitivi legati alla literacia probabilistica, sottolineando considerazioni sui riferimenti al curriculum dello stato di San Paolo e nazionali. Come risultati principali, abbiamo che i presupposti di questa teoria possono contribuire a una pratica educativa che privilegia l'aspetto sociale e all'acquisizione di una conoscenza più ricca, più attiva e più significativa per lo studente.Teoria storico-culturale. Insegnamento della probabilità. Literacia probabilistica. Nei primi anni. Scuola elementare.

scholarly journals Fuzzy model to estimate the number of hospitalizations for asthma and pneumonia under the effects of air pollution

2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luciano Eustáquio Chaves ◽  
Luiz Fernando Costa Nascimento ◽  
Paloma Maria Silva Rocha Rizol
Keyword(s):  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Sulfur Dioxide ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Variable Number ◽  
Actual Data ◽  
Apparent Temperature ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Linguistic Approach

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE Predict the number of hospitalizations for asthma and pneumonia associated with exposure to air pollutants in the city of São José dos Campos, São Paulo State. METHODS This is a computational model using fuzzy logic based on Mamdani’s inference method. For the fuzzification of the input variables of particulate matter, ozone, sulfur dioxide and apparent temperature, we considered two relevancy functions for each variable with the linguistic approach: good and bad. For the output variable number of hospitalizations for asthma and pneumonia, we considered five relevancy functions: very low, low, medium, high and very high. DATASUS was our source for the number of hospitalizations in the year 2007 and the result provided by the model was correlated with the actual data of hospitalization with lag from zero to two days. The accuracy of the model was estimated by the ROC curve for each pollutant and in those lags. RESULTS In the year of 2007, 1,710 hospitalizations by pneumonia and asthma were recorded in São José dos Campos, State of São Paulo, with a daily average of 4.9 hospitalizations (SD = 2.9). The model output data showed positive and significant correlation (r = 0.38) with the actual data; the accuracies evaluated for the model were higher for sulfur dioxide in lag 0 and 2 and for particulate matter in lag 1. CONCLUSIONS Fuzzy modeling proved accurate for the pollutant exposure effects and hospitalization for pneumonia and asthma approach.

Watershed fragility Assessment: a Methodological Approach of Siltation and Pollution Vulnerability on a Rural Watershed in Ibiúna (Southeastern Brazilian Region)

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 210-219
Author(s):  
Denise Piccirillo Barbosa Da Veiga ◽  
Bruna Botti Cruz ◽  
Adelaide Cassia Nardocci ◽  
Luiz Augusto Manfré ◽  
Cláudia Aparecida Soares Machado ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Hazard Evaluation ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
Object Based ◽  
São Paulo State

Background: The São Paulo State area has been facing a water crisis that caused water shortage in many cities, and a series of socioeconomic problems as an outcome. Water supply massive land-use alteration throughout São Paulo State river basins, coupled with climate change effects might produce severe damage to the region if preventive actions are not enforced in time. Objective: This study aims to apply an adapted methodology of fragility analysis to a tributary of the Itupararanga reservoir (Brazil) using a hydrological modeling tool. Based on the determination of the flow and drainage system direction and object-based image analysis, a final map of the fragility will be constructed. Methods: This paper presents a fragility assessment methodology on a local scale using a rural watershed of the study area. This approach uses object-based classification of topography data from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission to extract the most fragile territorial units of the watershed area, in terms of pollution and siltation contribution risk, combined with land cover classification. Results: The study area exhibits very high and medium fragility areas related to water contamination and siltation risk that can be seen as priority areas for land cover management and monitoring, although most of the basin area was classified as very low fragility. Conclusion: The methodology applications have great potential uses in territorial planning, protected areas and restoration priorities delimitation, ecological-economic zoning, hazard evaluation and mitigation, erosional processes and water protection and management at both local and regional scale studies.

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