Patterns of local extension and nodal involvement from 1300 nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients: An imaging-based predictor of distant metastases.

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e17516-e17516
Author(s):  
Dan Fan ◽  
Ying Wang ◽  
Yifu Tian ◽  
Nancy Y. Lee ◽  
Liangfang Shen
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma ◽  
Tumor Invasion ◽  
Mixed Type ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Distant Metastases ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Medium Risk

e17516 Background: Distant metastasis is a main determinant of prognosis in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma(NPC). We explored the patterns of disease spread in NPC patients and identified the pattern correlates with distant metastases. Methods: The imaging documents of 1300 consecutive newly diagnosed nasopharyngeal carcinoma between 2012 and 2016 were reviewed. According to the incidence rates of tumor invasion, the anatomic sites were classified into high-risk group (≥50%), medium-risk group (≥10%~ < 50%) and low-risk group ( < 10%). The location of lymph nodes was determined by 2013 updated guidelines for neck node levels. Additionally, we developed a novel classification based on tumor spreading patterns, as shown in Table. Moreover, we validated the prognostic accuracy of the classification in a validation cohort from a different institution, 241 non-metastatic NPC patients were retrospectively enrolled. Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to analyze all time-to-event data. Results: The incidence rates of tumor invasion were 0.2% ~91.2%, 95.2% cases across the midline. If anatomic sites in high-risk group or median-risk group were involved, the incidence rates in adjacent medium-risk sites or low-risk group were increased. On the contrary, the incidence rates were decreased when the adjacent high-risk sites or median-risk group were not involved. 85.9% cases had involved lymph nodes. Only 3.9% had skip metastases. The incidence rates of nodal involvement were increased when adjacent upper nodal level was involved. In validation cohort, distant metastases were present in 32/241 NPC patients (13.3%) and 3-year distant metastasis-free survival(DMFS) in local, superior, inferior, and mixed type were 95.0%, 91.3%, 89.0%, and 78.7%, respectively. Cumulative survival curves for former three patterns were relatively similar and were clearly separated from mixed type. DMFS was significantly lower for patients with mixed type pattern than for those with other patterns(P = 0.018). Conclusions: Local disease in NPC patients spreads stepwise from proximal sites to more distal sites. The frequency of metastases in the jugular lymph node chains decreased in the cranio-caudal direction. Based on the patterns of tumor extension, an imaging-based predictor of distant metastases was developed and may be used as a prognostic marker for selecting patients to further systemic treatments. [Table: see text]

scholarly journals A clinical scoring system for predicting tumor recurrence after percutaneous radiofrequency ablation for 3 cm or less hepatocellular carcinoma

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Zhu He ◽  
Kun He ◽  
Rui Qin Huang ◽  
Li Wen Liu ◽  
Shao Wei Ye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Tumor Recurrence ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Clinical Scoring

AbstractPreoperative prediction of tumor recurrence after radiofrequency ablation (RFA) in patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is helpful for clinical decision-making before treatment. A total of 162 patients with HCC of 3 cm or less who were completely ablated by percutaneous RFA were divided into a derivation cohort (n = 108) and a validation cohort (n = 54). Based on X-Tiles software, Kaplan–Meier curve analysis and COX multivariate analysis to obtain valuable predictive indicators, a clinical scoring system for predicting tumor recurrence was established. In the verall cohort, derivation cohort and validation cohort, we found circulating tumor cells (CTC) > 2/3.2 mL, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) > 20 ng/mL, and des-γ-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) > 40 mAU/mL, maximum tumor diameter > 20 mm, and the number of multiple tumors (≥ 2) are independent risk factors affecting tumor recurrence. Each independent risk factor was assigned a score of 1 to construct a predictive clinical scoring system, and X-Tiles software was used to divide the clinical score into a low-risk group (0 score–1 score), a medium-risk group (2 scores–3 scores), and a high-risk group (4 scores–5 scores). The cumulative tumor recurrence rates of patients in the low-risk group, middle-risk group, and high-risk group in 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years were 19.4%/27.5%/30.9%, 37.0%/63.2%/79.9% and 68.2%/100%/100%, respectively (Low-risk group vs medium-risk group: P < 0.001; medium-risk group vs high-risk group: P < 0.001). This clinical scoring system can predict the prognosis of patients with HCC of 3 cm or smaller undergoing percutaneous RFA, which has certain application value for making preoperative clinical decisions.

Identifying an immune-related gene-pair for prognosis prediction of metastatic colorectal cancer.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e15565-e15565
Author(s):  
Qiqi Zhu ◽  
Du Cai ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
Min-Er Zhong ◽  
Dejun Fan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Prognostic Value ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Related Gene ◽  
Training Cohort ◽  
Gene Pairs ◽  
Immune Related Gene

e15565 Background: Few robust predictive biomarkers have been applied in clinical practice due to the heterogeneity of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) . Using the gene pair method, the absolute expression value of genes can be converted into the relative order of genes, which can minimize the influence of the sequencing platform difference and batch effects, and improve the robustness of the model. The main objective of this study was to establish an immune-related gene pairs signature (IRGPs) and evaluate the impact of the IRGPs in predicting the prognosis in mCRC. Methods: A total of 205 mCRC patients containing overall survival (OS) information from the training cohort ( n = 119) and validation cohort ( n = 86) were enrolled in this study. LASSO algorithm was used to select prognosis related gene pairs. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to validate the prognostic value of the IRGPs. Gene sets enrichment analysis (GSEA) and immune infiltration analysis were used to explore the underlying biological mechanism. Results: An IRGPs signature containing 22 gene pairs was constructed, which could significantly separate patients of the training cohort ( n = 119) and validation cohort ( n = 86) into the low-risk and high-risk group with different outcomes. Multivariate analysis with clinical factors confirmed the independent prognostic value of IRGPs that higher IRGPs was associated with worse prognosis (training cohort: hazard ratio (HR) = 10.54[4.99-22.32], P < 0.001; validation cohort: HR = 3.53[1.24-10.08], P = 0.012). GSEA showed that several metastasis and immune-related pathway including angiogenesis, TGF-β-signaling, epithelial-mesenchymal transition and inflammatory response were enriched in the high-risk group. Through further analysis of the immune factors, we found that the proportions of CD4+ memory T cell, regulatory T cell, and Myeloid dendritic cell were significantly higher in the low-risk group, while the infiltrations of the Macrophage (M0) and Neutrophil were significantly higher in the high-risk group. Conclusions: The IRGPs signature could predict the prognosis of mCRC patients. Further prospective validations are needed to confirm the clinical utility of IRGPs in the treatment decision.

Validation of a Novel Tissue Array Based Classification of Multiple Myeloma (MM).

Blood ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 112 (11) ◽  
pp. 1671-1671
Author(s):  
Nizar J Bahlis ◽  
Alex Klimowicz ◽  
Paola Neri ◽  
Anthony Magliocco ◽  
Douglas A. Stewart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Protein Array ◽  
Immunoperoxidase Staining ◽  
Initial Testing ◽  
Independent Validation

Abstract Background: Gene expression profiling molecular classification of MM was proven to be an independent predictor of survival post autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT); however it had limited clinical applicability due to its complex methodology and high costs. We have previously reported the results of a protein-array based classification of MM in an initial testing cohort and concluded that positive immunoperoxidase staining for FGFR3, Cyclin B2 or Integrin beta7 correlates with a shortened survival post ASCT (Bahlis et al. Blood2007:110:449a). We now report on the results of this TMA classification in a larger and independent validation cohort. Methods: Immunoperoxidase staining for Cyclins B1, B2, D1, D2 and D3, FGFR3, PAX5 and Integrin beta 7 were previously validated in our initial testing cohort (n=52). Further analysis of our initial testing cohort identified 3 risk groups: positive expression of FGFR3 or Integrin beta 7 defined as “High risk”, positive Cyclin B2 (in the absence of FGFR3 or Integrin beta 7) as “Intermediate risk” and the lack of expression of any of these biomarkers defined as “Low risk”. In order to confirm the predictive value of our proposed protein-array classification, these immunohistochemical (IHC) stains were performed on the bone marrow biopsies of a larger and independent validation cohort of 79 newly diagnosed MM patients uniformly treated with a dexamethasone based regimen followed by ASCT. The clinical parameters, response criteria and survival outcomes (TTP and OS) of this validation cohort were defined according to the international uniform response criteria. For IHC analysis two pathologists who were blinded with regards to the clinical outcome of these patients scored the cases independently as positive or negative. Discordance in their scoring was seen in 20/79 (25.7%) with a consensus scoring reassigned to all of these cases. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate OS and TTP. Multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox regression method. Figure Figure Results: 79 patients were included in this validation cohort, the median age was 54.4 yrs (27.9–71), 23.7% had ISS stage III, median beta 2-microglobulin was 3.29 mg/L (1.16–37.5). Del13q and t(4;14) were detected by FISH in 35.6% and 13.6% of patients, respectively. Post ASCT, 68% achieved a CR or VGPR with an overall median TTP and OS of 2.29 years (CI 1.84–2.73) and 5.74 years (CI 4.98–6.51) respectively. Expression of FGFR3 was detected in 7.6% of the patients, cyclin B2 in 58.2% and integrin-beta7 in 17.7%. In univariate analysis expression of FGFR3 was associated with a significantly shorter TTP (P=0.011) but not OS (P=0.114). Similarly integrin-beta7 predicted for a shorter TTP (P=0.008) but not OS (P=0.570). Cyclin B2 also predicted for worse TTP (P=0.047) but not OS (P=0.098), whereas the expression of cyclins D1, D2, D3 and PAX5 did not affect survival. Based on our testing cohort definition of risk groups, 18/79 (22.8%) were considered as “High risk” with significantly shorter TTP 0.93 years (CI 0.74–1.12) compared to 2.29 years (CI 1.88–2.69) and 3.35 years (CI 2.51–4.19) for the “Intermediate” (34/79; 43%) and “Low” (27/79; 34.2%) risk groups respectively (P=0.002). The 5-years estimates for OS was 57.1% for the High-risk group compared to 66.3% and 71.6% for the Intermediate and Low risk group respectively (P=0.258). Multivariate analysis was performed using ISS, del13q and the TMA risk group classification as variables. The TMA classification and del 13q were the only independent predictors of TTP with the high-risk group having 3.4 fold greater risk of relapse (P=0.001). Conclusion: We have validated our protein array based classification of Multiple Myeloma and confirmed its survival predictive value post ASCT. MM patients with the High-risk signature should be spared the toxicity of ASCT and considered instead for other frontline novel therapeutic agents.

scholarly journals A radiomics nomogram for prediction of overall survival  in hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinqin Liu ◽  
Jing Li ◽  
Fei Liu ◽  
Weilin Yang ◽  
Jingjing Ding ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Clinicopathological Factors ◽  
Training Cohort ◽  
Texture Parameters ◽  
Radiomics Signature

Abstract Background Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is associated with dismal prognosis, and prediction of the prognosis of HCC can assist the therapeutic decisions. More and more studies showed that the texture parameters of images can reflect the heterogeneity of the tumor, and may have the potential to predict the prognosis of patients with HCC after surgical resection. The aim of the study was to investigate the prognostic value of computed tomography (CT) texture parameters for patients with HCC after hepatectomy, and try to develop a radiomics nomograms by combining clinicopathological factors with radiomics signature.Methods 544 eligible patients were enrolled in the retrospective study and randomly divided into training cohort (n=381) and validation cohort (n=163). The regions of interest (ROIs) of tumor is delineated, then the corresponding texture parameters are extracted. The texture parameters were selected by using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox model in training cohort, and the radiomics score (Rad-score) was generated. According to the cut-off value of the Rad-score calculated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the patients were divided into high-risk group and low-risk group. The prognosis of the two groups was compared and validated in the validation cohort. Univariate and multivariable analyses by COX proportional hazard regression model were used to select the prognostic factors of overall survival (OS). The radiomics nomogram for OS were established based on the radiomics signature and clinicopathological factors. The Concordance index (C-index), calibration plot and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance of the radiomics nomogram.Result 7 texture parameters associated with OS were selected in the training, and the radiomics signature was formulated based on the texture parameters. The patients were divided into high-risk group and low-risk group by the cut-off values of the Rad-score of OS. The 1-, 3- and 5-year OS rate was 71.0%, 45.5% and 35.5% in the high-risk group, respectively, and 91.7%, 82.1% and 78.7%, in the low-risk group, respectively, with significant difference (P <0.001). COX regression model found that Rad-score was an independent prognostic factor of OS. In addition, the radiomics nomogram was developed based on five variables: α‐fetoprotein (AFP), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), largest tumor size, microvascular invasion (MVI) and Rad-score. The nomograms displayed good accuracy in predicting OS (C-index=0.747) in the training cohort and was confirmed in the validation cohort (C-index=0.777). The calibration plots also showed an excellent agreement between the actual and predicted survival probabilities. The DAC indicated that the radiomics nomogram showed better clinical usefulness than the clinicopathologic nomogram.Conclusion The radiomics signature is potential biomarkers of the prognosis of HCC after hepatectomy. Radiomics nomogram that integrated radiomics signature can provide more accurate estimate of OS for patients with HCC after hepatectomy.

scholarly journals Impact of cumulative cisplatin dose in childhood nasopharyngeal carcinoma based on neoadjuvant chemotherapy response in the intensity-modulated radiotherapy era: a real-world study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ya-Nan Jin ◽  
Meng-Yun Qiang ◽  
Meng-Meng Liu ◽  
Zhi-Bin Cheng ◽  
Wang-Jian Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma ◽  
Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy ◽  
Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Disease Free Survival ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Chemotherapy Response ◽  
Ebv Dna

Abstract Background We aimed to comprehensively investigate the optimal cumulative cisplatin dose during concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CC-CCD) for locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (CA-LANPC) with different tumor responses after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). Methods Patients with CA-LANPC who underwent NAC followed by cisplatin-based concurrent chemoradiotherapy were retrospectively analyzed. Evaluation of tumor response in patients was conducted by Response Evaluation Criteria for Solid Tumor (RECIST) 1.1 after two to four cycles NAC. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used for prognosis. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was conducted to classify participates and predict disease-free survival (DFS). Results One hundred and thirty-two patients with favorable response after NAC were included. The median CC-CCD was 163 mg/m2 (IQR, 145–194 mg/m2), and 160 mg/m2 was selected as the cutoff point to group patients into low and high CC-CCD groups (< 160 vs. ≥ 160 mg/m2). There was significant improvement in 5-year DFS (91.2% vs. 72.6%; P = 0.003) for patients receiving high CC-CCD compared to those receiving low CC-CCD. Multivariate analysis revealed that CC-CCD, T stage, and Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) DNA were independent prognostic factors for DFS (P < 0.05 for all). Patients were further categorized into two prognostic groups by RPA: the low-risk group (T1-3 disease with regardless of EBV DNA, and T4 disease with EBV DNA < 4000 copy/mL), and the high-risk group (T4 disease with EBV DNA ≥ 4000 copy/mL). Significant 5-year DFS improvement was observed for the high-risk group (P = 0.004) with high CC-CCD. However, DFS improvement was relatively insignificant in the low-risk group (P = 0.073). Conclusions CC-CCD was a positive prognostic factor for responders after NAC in CA-LANPC. Furthermore, CC-CCD ≥ 160 mg/m2 could significantly improve DFS in the high-risk group with CA-LANPC, but the benefit of high CC-CCD in the low-risk group needs further study.

scholarly journals Validation of an Immune-related Gene Pair Index as a Prognostic Marker of Early-Stage Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zihao Wang ◽  
Xuan Xiang ◽  
Xiaoshan Wei ◽  
Linlin Ye ◽  
Yiran Niu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Related Gene ◽  
Immune Related Gene

Abstract Background. Lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) is one of the subtypes of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and accounts for approximately 20 to 30% of all lung cancers.Methods. In this study, we developed an immune-related gene pair index (IRGPI) for early-stage LUSC from 3 public LUSC data sets, including The Cancer Genome Atlas LUSC cohort and Gene Expression Omnibus data sets, and explored whether IRGPI could act as a prognostic marker to identify patients with early-stage LUSC at high risk.Results. IRGPI was constructed by 68 gene pairs consisting of 123 unique immune-related genes from TCGA LUSC cohort. In the derivation cohort, the hazard of death among high-risk group was 10.51 times that of the low-risk group (HR, 10.51; 95%CI, 6.96-15.86; p<0.001). The hazard of death among the high-risk group was 2.26 times that of the low-risk group (HR, 2.26; 95%CI, 1.2-4.25; p=0.009) in the GSE37745 validation cohort and was 3.2 times that of low-risk group (HR, 3.2; 95%CI, 0.98-10.4; p=0.042) in the GSE41271 validation cohort. The infiltrations of CD8+ T cells and T follicular helper cells were lower in the high-risk group, as compared with the low-risk group in the TCGA cohort (6.94% vs 9.63%, p=0.004; 2.15% vs 3%, p=0.002, respectively). The infiltrations of neutrophils, activated mast cells and monocytes were higher in the high-risk group, as compared with the low-risk group in the TCGA cohort (1.63% vs 0.72%, p=0.001; 1.64% vs 1.02%, p=0.007; 0.57% vs 0.35%, p=0.041, respectively).Conclusions. IRGPI is a significant prognostic biomarker for predicting overall survival in early-stage LUSC patients.

scholarly journals A Five-MicroRNA Signature Predicts the Prognosis in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shixiong Wu ◽  
Cen Zhang ◽  
Jing Xie ◽  
Shuang Li ◽  
Shuo Huang
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Prognostic Signature ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve

BackgroundThere is no effective prognostic signature that could predict the prognosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).MethodsWe constructed a prognostic signature based on five microRNAs using random forest and Least Absolute Shrinkage And Selection Operator (LASSO) algorithm on the GSE32960 cohort (N = 213). We verified its prognostic value using three independent external validation cohorts (GSE36682, N = 62; GSE70970, N = 246; and TCGA-HNSC, N = 523). Through principal component analysis, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, and C-index calculation, we confirmed the predictive accuracy of this prognostic signature.ResultsWe calculated the risk score based on the LASSO algorithm and divided the patients into high- and low-risk groups according to the calculated optimal cutoff value. The patients in the high-risk group tended to have a worse prognosis outcome and chemotherapy response. The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the 1-year overall survival rate of the five-microRNA signature had an area under the curve of more than 0.83. A functional annotation analysis of the five-microRNA signature showed that the patients in the high-risk group were usually accompanied by activation of DNA repair and MYC-target pathways, while the patients in the low-risk group had higher immune-related pathway signals.ConclusionsWe constructed a five-microRNA prognostic signature, which could accurately predict the prognosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma, and constructed a nomogram that could conveniently predict the overall survival of patients.

High Prevalence of Relapse in Australian Children with Ph-like Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia Despite Risk Adapted Treatment

Blood ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 126 (23) ◽  
pp. 1419-1419 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan L Heatley ◽  
Teresa Sadras ◽  
Eva Nievergall ◽  
Chung Hoow Kok ◽  
Phuong Dang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Lymphoblastic Leukemia ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Event Free Survival ◽  
Free Survival ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Medium Risk

Abstract Introduction: While remission rates for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) now exceed 80%, relapsed ALL remains the leading cause of non-traumatic death in children. Recently, a high-risk group of B-progenitor ALL patients has been identified. Such cases exhibit a gene expression profile similar to that of BCR-ABL1 positive (Ph+) ALL but are BCR-ABL1 negative, and also experience poor treatment outcomes. This subset, termed Ph-like ALL, is characterised by a range of genetic alterations that activate cytokine receptor and kinase signalling, allowing potential targeting by available tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI). The frequency of Ph-like ALL in the Australian community and the prognosis in the setting of the first MRD (minimal residual disease) intervention trial by the Australian and New Zealand Children's Haematology/Oncology Group (ANZCHOG ALL8) is unknown. Method: We retrospectively screened 250 unselected samples that were available from children diagnosed with B-ALL, for Ph-like ALL. The children, aged between 1 and 18 years, were enrolled on the ANZCHOG ALL8 trial and recruited from 2002-2011. The criteria for stratification to the high-risk group, based upon Berlin-Frankfurt-Munster (BFM) protocols, were BCR-ABL1 or MLL t(4;11) translocation; poor prednisolone response at day 8; failure to achieve remission by day 33 or high MRD (>5 x10-4) at day 79. MRD was measured by RQ-PCR for patient-specific immunoglobulin and T-cell receptor rearrangements. All patients received a standard BFM four drug induction chemotherapy regimen including a prednisolone pre-phase and intrathecal methotrexate. High-risk patients received a further three novel intensive blocks of chemotherapy followed by transplant in most cases. Patients were screened for Ph-like ALL using a custom Taqman Low Density Array (TLDA) based upon previous reports. Fusions were then confirmed by RT-PCR for 30 known fusions, Sanger sequencing, mRNA sequencing and/or FISH. Results: Ten percent (25/250) of children in this cohort were identified as having Ph-like ALL, with most fusions converging on kinase activating pathways (Table 1). Three Ph-like ALL patients were considered high-risk, the remaining 22 (88%) were medium risk. Five children with Ph-like ALL, that did not have a fusion identified by RT-PCR, are currently under further investigation. Furthermore, 15 of the 20 (75%) of rearrangements involved CRLF2 with 10 (66%) of these children relapsing. Strikingly, 56% (14/25) of children in the ALL8 cohort who were identified as Ph-like subsequently relapsed compared to 16% (36/225) who were not, with significantly worse event free survival (p<0.0001) (Figure 1). Conclusion: Here we demonstrate a significantly higher frequency of relapse amongst Australian children with Ph-like ALL compared to non Ph-like disease despite a MRD-adjusted intensification regimen. In this cohort, these children should be classified as high-risk due to high treatment failure rates with standard/medium risk regimens. Importantly, rapid identification of these patients may guide future intervention with targeted therapies, such as TKI, matched to the causative genetic lesion in this high-risk group. Figure 1. Fusions identified in Ph-like ALL from ANZCHOG ALL8 cohort. Figure 1. Fusions identified in Ph-like ALL from ANZCHOG ALL8 cohort. Figure 2. Kaplan-Meier estimates of event free survival for patients with Ph-like ALL and non Ph-like ALL (all risk groups). Figure 2. Kaplan-Meier estimates of event free survival for patients with Ph-like ALL and non Ph-like ALL (all risk groups). Disclosures Hughes: ARIAD: Honoraria, Research Funding; Bristol-Myers Squibb: Honoraria, Research Funding; Novartis: Honoraria, Research Funding. Mullighan:Incyte: Consultancy, Honoraria; Cancer Science Institute: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Amgen: Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; Loxo Oncology: Research Funding. White:Novartis: Honoraria, Research Funding; BMS: Honoraria, Research Funding.

scholarly journals Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anand Veeravagu ◽  
Amy Li ◽  
Christian Swinney ◽  
Lu Tian ◽  
Adrienne Moraff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Spine Surgery ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Acs Nsqip ◽  
Medium Risk

OBJECTIVEThe ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort.METHODSThe spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery.RESULTSThe authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60–0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60–0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48–0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently produced complication predictions that underestimated complication occurrence: 3.4% in the low-risk group (observed 12.6%), 5.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 34.5%), and 12.5% in the high-risk group (observed 38.8%). The RAT was more accurate than the ACS NSQIP calculator (p = 0.0018).CONCLUSIONSWhile the RAT and ACS NSQIP calculator were both able to identify patients more likely to experience complications following spine surgery, both have substantial room for improvement. Risk stratification is feasible in spine surgery procedures; currently used measures have low accuracy.

Impact of Stratification of Comorbidities on Nutrition Indices and Survival in Patients on Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis

2009 ◽  
Vol 29 (2_suppl) ◽  
pp. 153-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narayan Prasad ◽  
Amit Gupta ◽  
Archana Sinha ◽  
Anurag Singh ◽  
Raj Kumar Sharma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Comorbid Illness ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Risk Patients

Background Case-mix comorbidities and malnutrition influence outcome in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients. In the present study, we analyzed the influence of stratified comorbidities on nutrition indices and survival in CAPD patients. Patients and Methods We categorized 373 CAPD patients (197 with and 176 without diabetes) into three risk groups: low—age under 70 years and no comorbid illness; medium—age 70 – 80 years, or any age with 1 comorbid illness, or age under 70 years with diabetes; high—age over 80 years, or any age with 2 comorbid illnesses. We then compared nutrition indices and malnutrition by subjective global assessment (SGA) between the three groups. Survival was compared using Kaplan–Meier survival analysis. Results Mean daily calorie and protein intakes in the low-risk group (21 ± 6.7 Kcal/kg, 0.85 ± 0.28 g/kg) were significantly higher than in the medium- (17.6 ± 5.2 Kcal/kg, 0.79 ± 0.25 g/kg) and high-risk (17.5 ± 6.1 Kcal/kg, 0.78 ± 0.26 g/kg) groups ( p = 0.001 and p = 0.04 respectively). Relative risk (RR) of malnutrition was less in the low-risk group (103/147, 70.06%) than in the medium-risk group [135/162, 83.3%; RR: 2.0; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1 to 3.4; p = 0.01] or the high-risk group (54/64, 84.4%; RR: 2.3; 95% CI: 2.1 to 4.9; p = 0.03). Mean survivals of patients in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were 51 patient–months (95% CI: 45.6 to 56.4 patient–months), 43.3 patient–months (95% CI: 37.8 to 48.7 patient–months), and 29.7 patient–months (95% CI: 23 to 36.4 patient–months) respectively (log-rank: 35.9 patient–months; p = 0.001). The 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year patient survivals in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were 96%, 87%, 79%, 65%, and 56%; 89%, 67%, 54%, 43%, and 34%; and 76%, 48%, 31%, 30%, and 30% respectively. Conclusions Intake of calories and protein was significantly lower in the medium-risk and high-risk groups than in the low-risk group. Survival was significantly better in low-risk patients than in medium- and high-risk patients.

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