scholarly journals Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingru Feng ◽  
Mingjie Li ◽  
Yuanlong Li ◽  
Fujiang Yu ◽  
Dezhou Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Chinese Mainland ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
Marine Disasters

AbstractIn the past decade (2010–2019), the annual maximum typhoon storm surge (AMTSS) accounted for 46.6% of the total direct economic loss caused by marine disasters in Chinese mainland, but its prediction in advance is challenging. By analyzing records of 23 tide-gauge stations, we found that the AMTSSs in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Fujian show significant positive correlations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For the 1987–2016 period, the maximum correlation is achieved at Pingtan station, where correlation coefficient between the AMTSS and Niño-3.4 is 0.55. The AMTSS occurring in El Niño years are stronger than those in non-El Niño years by 9–35 cm in these areas. Further analysis suggests that a developing El Niño can greatly modulate the behaviors of Northwest Pacific typhoons. Strong typhoons tend to make landfall in southeast China with stronger intensities and northward shifted landfall positions. This study indicates that the modulation effect by ENSO may provide potential predictability for the AMTSS, which is useful for the early alert and reduction of storm surge damages.

scholarly journals The El Niño: A Meteorological Risk Factor for Vector-borne Diseases

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avi Patel ◽  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Neglected Tropical Diseases ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Tropical Diseases ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
Climate Crisis

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been ravaging numerous coastal and inland communities with excessive flooding and drought conditions, causing immense economic loss, and the incidence of many neglected tropical diseases. Affecting over 60 million people directly, El Niño remains one of the greatest enigmas to human health, and combined with the ever-escalating global climate crisis, El Niño events are only projected to increase in magnitude in the coming years (WHO, 2016).

scholarly journals Seasonal Modulations of El Niño–Related Atmospheric Variability: Indo–Western Pacific Ocean Feedback

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (9) ◽  
pp. 3461-3472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Zhen-Qiang Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Western Pacific Ocean ◽  
Combination Mode

The spatial structure of atmospheric anomalies associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation varies with season because of the seasonal variations in sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern and in the climatological basic state. The latter effect is demonstrated using an atmospheric model forced with a time-invariant pattern of El Niño warming over the equatorial Pacific. The seasonal modulation is most pronounced over the north Indian Ocean to northwest Pacific where the monsoonal winds vary from northeasterly in winter to southwesterly in summer. Specifically, the constant El Niño run captures the abrupt transition from a summer cyclonic to winter anticyclonic anomalous circulation over the northwest Pacific, in support of the combination mode idea that emphasizes nonlinear interactions of equatorial Pacific SST forcing and the climatological seasonal cycle. In post–El Niño summers when equatorial Pacific warming has dissipated, SST anomalies over the Indo–northwest Pacific Oceans dominate and anchor the coherent persisting anomalous anticyclonic circulation. A conceptual model is presented that incorporates the combination mode in the existing framework of regional Indo–western Pacific Ocean coupling.

Interdecadal Variations in ENSO Teleconnection to the Indo–Western Pacific for 1870–2007

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 1722-1744 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. S. Chowdary ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Hiroki Tokinaga ◽  
Yuko M. Okumura ◽  
Hisayuki Kubota ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Early Twentieth Century ◽  
Late Nineteenth

Slow modulation of interannual variability and its relationship to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated for the period of 1870–2007 using shipboard surface meteorological observations along a frequently traveled track across the north Indian Ocean (NIO; from the Gulf of Aden through Malacca Strait) and the South China Sea (to Luzon Strait). During the decades in the late nineteenth–early twentieth century and in the late twentieth century, the El Niño–induced NIO warming persists longer than during the 1910s–mid-1970s, well into the summer following the peak of El Niño. During the epochs of the prolonged NIO warming, rainfall drops and sea level pressure rises over the tropical northwest Pacific in summer following El Niño. Conversely, during the period when the NIO warming dissipates earlier, these atmospheric anomalies are not well developed. This supports the Indian Ocean capacitor concept as a mechanism prolonging El Niño influence into summer through the persistent Indian Ocean warming after El Niño itself has dissipated. The above centennial modulation of ENSO teleconnection to the Indo–northwest Pacific region is reproduced in an atmospheric general circulation model forced by observed SST. The modulation is correlated not with the Pacific decadal oscillation but rather with the ENSO variance itself. When ENSO is strong, its effect in the Indo–northwest Pacific strengthens and vice versa. The fact that enhanced ENSO teleconnections occurred 100 years ago during the late nineteenth–early twentieth century indicates that the recent strengthening of the ENSO correlation over the Indo–western Pacific may not entirely be due to global warming but reflect natural variability.

Strengthening of Tropical Indian Ocean Teleconnection to the Northwest Pacific since the Mid-1970s: An Atmospheric GCM Study*

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (19) ◽  
pp. 5294-5304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang Huang ◽  
Kaiming Hu ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Interdecadal Change ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Wind Pattern ◽  
Climate Anomalies

Abstract The correlation of northwest (NW) Pacific climate anomalies during summer with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the preceding winter strengthens in the mid-1970s and remains high. This study investigates the hypothesis that the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) response to ENSO is key to this interdecadal change, using a 21-member ensemble simulation with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3 (CAM3) forced by the observed history of sea surface temperature (SST) for 1950–2000. In the model hindcast, the TIO influence on the summer NW Pacific strengthens in the mid-1970s, and the strengthened TIO teleconnection coincides with an intensification of summer SST variability over the TIO. This result is corroborated by the fact the model’s skills in simulating NW Pacific climate anomalies during summer increase after the 1970s shift. During late spring to early summer, El Niño–induced TIO warming decays rapidly for the epoch prior to the 1970s shift but grows and persists through summer for the epoch occurring after it. This difference in the evolution of the TIO warming determines the strength of the TIO teleconnection to the NW Pacific in the subsequent summer. An antisymmetric wind pattern develops in spring across the equator over the TIO, and the associated northeasterly anomalies aid the summer warming over the north Indian Ocean by opposing the prevailing southwest monsoon. In the model, this antisymmetric spring wind pattern is well developed after but absent before the 1970s shift.

scholarly journals Indian Ocean Variability in the CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble: The Basin Mode

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (18) ◽  
pp. 7240-7266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Du ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Ya-Li Yang ◽  
Xiao-Tong Zheng ◽  
Lin Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Kelvin Wave

Abstract This study evaluates the simulation of the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode and relevant physical processes in models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Historical runs from 20 CMIP5 models are available for the analysis. They reproduce the IOB mode and its close relationship to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Half of the models capture key IOB processes: a downwelling oceanic Rossby wave in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) precedes the IOB development in boreal fall and triggers an antisymmetric wind anomaly pattern across the equator in the following spring. The anomalous wind pattern induces a second warming in the north Indian Ocean (NIO) through summer and sustains anticyclonic wind anomalies in the northwest Pacific by radiating a warm tropospheric Kelvin wave. The second warming in the NIO is indicative of ocean–atmosphere interaction in the interior TIO. More than half of the models display a double peak in NIO warming, as observed following El Niño, while the rest show only one winter peak. The intermodel diversity in the characteristics of the IOB mode seems related to the thermocline adjustment in the south TIO to ENSO-induced wind variations. Almost all the models show multidecadal variations in IOB variance, possibly modulated by ENSO.

scholarly journals Weakening of Northwest Pacific Anticyclone Anomalies during Post–El Niño Summers under Global Warming

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (9) ◽  
pp. 3539-3555 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenping Jiang ◽  
Gang Huang ◽  
Ping Huang ◽  
Kaiming Hu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Northwest Pacific Anticyclone ◽  
Sst Anomalies

The northwest Pacific anticyclone (NWPAC) anomalies during post–El Niño summers are a key predictor of the summer climate in East Asia and the northwestern Pacific (NWP). Understanding how this will change under global warming is crucial to project the changes in the variability of the northwest Pacific summer monsoon. Outputs from 18 selected coupled models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project show that the anomalous NWPAC response to El Niño will likely be weakened under global warming, which is attributed to the decreased zonal contrast between the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and the NWP cooling during post–El Niño summers. Under global warming, the NWPAC anomalies during the El Niño mature winter are weakened because of decreased atmospheric circulation in response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which leads to the weakening of local air–sea interaction and then decreases the cold NWP SST anomalies. Furthermore, the decreased surface heat flux anomalies, the weakened anticyclone anomalies over the southeastern Indian Ocean, and the slackened anomalous easterlies over the north Indian Ocean weaken the warm TIO SST anomalies. However, the strengthened tropospheric temperature anomalies could enhance the anomalous TIO warming. Although the changes in TIO SST anomalies are indistinctive, the weakening of the SST anomaly gradient between the TIO and the NWP is robust to weaken the NWPAC anomalies during post–El Niño summers. Moreover, the positive feedback between the TIO–NWP SST anomalies and the NWPAC anomalies will enhance the weakening of NWPAC under global warming.

scholarly journals El Niño−Southern Oscillation frequency cascade

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (44) ◽  
pp. 13490-13495 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malte F. Stuecker ◽  
Fei-Fei Jin ◽  
Axel Timmermann
Keyword(s):  
Annual Cycle ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
East Asian Monsoon ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Tight Coupling

The El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the most pronounced feature of internally generated climate variability, occurs on interannual timescales and impacts the global climate system through an interaction with the annual cycle. The tight coupling between ENSO and the annual cycle is particularly pronounced over the tropical Western Pacific. Here we show that this nonlinear interaction results in a frequency cascade in the atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by deterministic high-frequency variability on near-annual and subannual timescales. Through climate model experiments and observational analysis, it is documented that a substantial fraction of the anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclone variability, which is the main atmospheric link between ENSO and the East Asian Monsoon system, can be explained by these interactions and is thus deterministic and potentially predictable.

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