scholarly journals COVID-19 infection data encode a dynamic reproduction number in response to policy decisions with secondary wave implications

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Rowland ◽  
Todd M. Swannack ◽  
Michael L. Mayo ◽  
Matthew Parno ◽  
Matthew Farthing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Policy ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
State Level ◽  
Secondary Wave ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
State And Local ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Changes Over Time

AbstractThe SARS-CoV-2 virus is responsible for the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which has spread to populations throughout the continental United States. Most state and local governments have adopted some level of “social distancing” policy, but infections have continued to spread despite these efforts. Absent a vaccine, authorities have few other tools by which to mitigate further spread of the virus. This begs the question of how effective social policy really is at reducing new infections that, left alone, could potentially overwhelm the existing hospitalization capacity of many states. We developed a mathematical model that captures correlations between some state-level “social distancing” policies and infection kinetics for all U.S. states, and use it to illustrate the link between social policy decisions, disease dynamics, and an effective reproduction number that changes over time, for case studies of Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Washington states. In general, our findings indicate that the potential for second waves of infection, which result after reopening states without an increase to immunity, can be mitigated by a return of social distancing policies as soon as possible after the waves are detected.

scholarly journals COVID-19 infection data encode a dynamic reproduction number in response to policy decisions with secondary wave implications

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Rowland ◽  
Todd Swannack ◽  
Michael L. Mayo ◽  
Matthew Parno ◽  
Matthew Farthing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Policy ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
State Level ◽  
Secondary Wave ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
State And Local ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Changes Over Time

Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 virus is responsible for the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which continues to spread to populations throughout the continental United States. Most state and local governments have adopted some level of “social distancing” policy, but infections have continued to spread despite these efforts. Absent a vaccine, authorities have few other tools by which to mitigate further spread of the virus. This begs the question of how effective social policy really is at reducing new infections that, left alone, would likely overwhelm the existing hospitalization capacity of many states. We developed a mathematical model that captures correlations between state-level “social distancing” policies and infection kinetics for all U.S. states, and use it to illustrate the link between social policy decisions, disease dynamics, and an effective reproduction number that changes over time, for case studies of Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Washington states. In general, our findings indicate that the potential for second waves of infection, which result after reopening states without an increase to immunity, can be mitigated by a return of social distancing policies as soon as possible after the waves are detected.

Industrial Policy and Local Economic Transformation: Evidence From the U.S. Rust Belt

2021 ◽  
pp. 089124242110228
Author(s):  
Ben Armstrong
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Policy ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
State Level ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Rust Belt ◽  
Industrial Policies ◽  
Cast Doubt ◽  
State And Local

State and local governments frequently invest in policies aimed at stimulating the growth of new industries, but studies of industrial policy and related economic development initiatives cast doubt on their effectiveness. This article examines the role of state-level industrial policies in contributing to the different economic trajectories of two U.S. metro areas—Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and Cleveland, Ohio—as they adapted to the decline of their legacy industries. Comparative case studies show that industrial policies in Pittsburgh, which empowered research universities as local economic leaders, contributed to the transformation of the local economy. In Cleveland, by contrast, state industrial policies invested in making incremental improvements, particularly in legacy sectors. The article concludes that by empowering new local economic actors—such as universities—industrial policies can foment political change that enables structural economic change to follow.

scholarly journals Transmission potential of COVID-19 in South Korea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eunha Shim ◽  
Amna Tariq ◽  
Wongyeong Choi ◽  
Yiseul Lee ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractSince the first identified individual of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection on Jan 20, 2020 in South Korea, the number of confirmed cases rapidly increased. As of Feb 26, 2020, 1,261 cases of COVID-19 including 12 deaths were confirmed in South Korea. Using the incidence data of COVID-19, we estimate the reproduction number at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4-1.6), which indicates sustained transmission and support the implementation of social distancing measures to rapidly control the outbreak.

Local Fiscal Behavior Under Subnational Provisions

2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilin Hou
Keyword(s):  
Local Governments ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Local Level ◽  
State Level ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Local Policy ◽  
Policy Interactions ◽  
Local Finance ◽  
Fiscal Behavior ◽  
State And Local

Abstract This study examines fiscal policy interactions between state and local governments. Research in this area has been increasing but remains inadequate, especially on local policy options during economic downturns. State governments oversee local finances, also provide financial assistance; localities are expected to adopt counter-cyclical fiscal policies (CCFP). There has been an increasing literature on CCFP at the state level, but little on the local level. This paper uses U.S. county data for empirical analysis and attempts to move closer to consensus on the determinants of local savings and their effects on outlays. I find no evidence that localities smooth across boom-bust cycles; i.e., they do not save for revenue shortfalls. I find that state fiscal institutions cast real impact on local finance. These shed light on local policy making, also add to existing evidence for subnational policy design.

Shaping State Fracking Policies in the United States

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles E. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Local Governments ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Horizontal Drilling ◽  
Gas Drilling ◽  
The Past ◽  
Local Officials ◽  
State And Local

This article presents an overview of research focusing on how state and local governments have regulated oil and gas over the past decade following the expanded industry use of new technologies like hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling. A consequence of fracking was a substantial increase in energy production accompanied by the emergence of policy concerns about how resource development and jobs could be balanced with efforts to maintain environmental quality. Researchers have dealt with three key concerns in the following sections: (1) determining whether state and local officials can each play an important role in developing policies affecting oil and gas drilling activities, (2) examining how state regulators deal with environmental and health impacts associated with fracking, and (3) looking at how state policy decisions have been shaped taking into account both state-level political and economic characteristics and agency resources and political will.

scholarly journals How quarantine and social distancing policy can suppress the outbreak of novel coronavirus in developing or under poverty level countries : a mathematical and statistical analysis.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Atiqur Chowdhury ◽  
K M Ariful Kabir ◽  
Jun Tanimoto
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
Accurate Predictor ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Polynomial Fit ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Background: COVID-19 is a transmissible viral disease that has spread around the world rapidly and is currently a significant thread to developing and impoverished country by the World Bank and WHO’s prediction. Without inventing vaccination or the proper treatment, how we control the transmission of the COVID-19 is one of the most important questions with which peoples are facing right now . By the WHO’s guidelines, some policies termed as isolation, quarantine, lockdown, and social distancing would give a stunning direction to control the epidemic outbreak. Methods: In this paper, we developed a mathematical model named “Social distancing SEIQR model” to reduce the basic reproduction number R0 by combining both quarantine and social distancing parameters based on the real cases where medical equipment and other resources are limited. Results: Our modeling basic reproduction number R 0 is an almost accurate predictor threshold to assess the transmissibility of the COVID-19 in Bangladesh. Our modeling basic reproduction number R0 is an almost accurate predictor threshold to assess the transmissibility of the COVID-19 in Bangladesh. Our study result showed, our model fitted well with the numerically simulated results to the reported COVID-19 cases data for Bangladesh by a linear regression polynomial fit analysis. Conclusion: Our model will help to find strategies to reduce the human-to-human transmission of the virus and protect the nation when a country has limited medical resources.

scholarly journals Promoting Clean Energy Innovation at the State and Local Level

2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 360-373
Author(s):  
David Popp
Keyword(s):  
Local Governments ◽  
Local Level ◽  
State Level ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Working Paper ◽  
Energy Innovation ◽  
State And Local

AbstractInnovation is an important part of energy policy, and encouraging clean energy innovation is often an explicit goal of policy makers. For local governments, promoting clean energy innovation is seen not only as a pathway to a cleaner economy but also as a tool for promoting the local economy. But is such optimism warranted? There is a substantial literature examining the relationships between innovation and environmental policy, but few studies focus explicitly on innovation at the state and local level. In this paper, I provide key lessons from research on clean energy innovation, focusing on lessons relevant for state and local governments. I then summarize the results of a recent working paper by Fu et al. (2018) that studied wind energy innovation across individual states in the United States. While state-level policies can promote clean energy innovation, it is overall market size that matters most. Thus, innovation need not occur in those states most actively promoting clean energy. I conclude with lessons for state and local governments drawn from both this work and the broader literature on energy innovation.

scholarly journals How State Interventions affect Municipalities Taking the Lead in Sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 6479
Author(s):  
Jayce L. Farmer ◽  
Andres J. Rodriguez Lombeida
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
State Energy ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Multilevel Governance ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Theory Approach ◽  
Internal Operations ◽  
State And Local

The state and local governments throughout the United States interact within a complex system of multilevel governance to advance sustainability. However, we know little about what this hierarchical system of exchanges means for municipalities as they work to achieve energy efficient government operations. Drawing on a perspective of “contested federalism”, we examine how the transaction costs of state–local government relations affect the efforts of U.S. cities to lead by example and promote sustainability within their internal processes. We apply a Bayesian item response theory approach to assess the effects of state-level fiscal and policy interventions on municipal commitments to energy efficiency programs within their internal operations. Our findings suggest that increased fiscal support for state energy programs enhances municipal commitments to government focused energy efficiency. We also find a positive connection between state energy efficiency standards and municipal efforts to enhance energy efficiency within their internal operations. The alignment of state resources and policy efforts with municipal actions can reduce commitment and agency costs that obstruct policy outcomes. The findings speak to the importance of multilevel governance exchanges in municipal efforts to become leaders in sustainability.

scholarly journals Pandemic Politics: Timing State-Level Social Distancing Responses to COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Adolph ◽  
Kenya Amano ◽  
Bree Bang-Jensen ◽  
Nancy Fullman ◽  
John Wilkerson
Keyword(s):  
Event History Analysis ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Original Dataset ◽  
Political Partisanship ◽  
History Analysis ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractSocial distancing policies are critical but economically painful measures to flatten the curve against emergent infectious diseases. As the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 spread throughout the United States in early 2020, the federal government issued social distancing recommendations but left to the states the most difficult and consequential decisions restricting behavior, such as canceling events, closing schools and businesses, and issuing stay-at-home orders. We present an original dataset of state-level social distancing policy responses to the epidemic and explore how political partisanship, COVID-19 caseload, and policy diffusion explain the timing of governors’ decisions to mandate social distancing. An event history analysis of five social distancing policies across all fifty states reveals the most important predictors are political: all else equal, Republican governors and governors from states with more Trump supporters were slower to adopt social distancing policies. These delays are likely to produce significant, on-going harm to public health.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Economic Crisis on Social Policy in Interwar Poland

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 373-387
Author(s):  
Paweł Grata
Keyword(s):  
Social Policy ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Public Funding ◽  
Multidimensional Analysis ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
State And Local ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The aim of this paper is to determine how the economic crisis, and the ad hoc attempts made by the authorities to counteract it, affected the Polish society and, above all, to prepare a multidimensional analysis of how the crisis impacted systemic changes in the Polish social policy. The author will examine both positive changes that followed the relevant global trends and also negative changes that resulted from the developmental lag, the country’s economic situation and especially the generally low involvement of the state via public funding in activities that were part of the state’s social policy. Assessment of Polish social policy during the crisis must be ambiguous. On the one hand, systemic changes in social policy introduced as a result of the economic collapse can be clearly distinguished, on the other hand, however, the severity of the crisis visibly affected many activities of state and local governments in the social sphere. These activities posed unsuccessful attempts to rescue the situation in the labour market. Additionally, an effective response to deepening poverty was missing, amendments adopted to labour legislation were disadvantageous to employees, and finally fundamental sacrifices in terms of social policy were made as the lawmakers passed the Unification Act during the crisis. Polish social policy was unable, for a number of reasons, to essentially redefine its approach to addressing the numerous social issues it had to face.

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