scholarly journals The impact of human mobility data scales and processing on movement predictability

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamil Smolak ◽  
Katarzyna Siła-Nowicka ◽  
Jean-Charles Delvenne ◽  
Michał Wierzbiński ◽  
Witold Rohm
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Reference Value ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Temporal Data ◽  
Movement Trajectories ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact

AbstractPredictability of human movement is a theoretical upper bound for the accuracy of movement prediction models, which serves as a reference value showing how regular a dataset is and to what extent mobility can be predicted. Over the years, the predictability of various human mobility datasets was found to vary when estimated for differently processed datasets. Although attempts at the explanation of this variability have been made, the extent of these experiments was limited. In this study, we use high-precision movement trajectories of individuals to analyse how the way we represent the movement impacts its predictability and thus, the outcomes of analyses made on these data. We adopt a number of methods used in the last 11 years of research on human mobility and apply them to a wide range of spatio-temporal data scales, thoroughly analysing changes in predictability and produced data. We find that spatio-temporal resolution and data processing methods have a large impact on the predictability as well as geometrical and numerical properties of human mobility data, and we present their nonlinear dependencies.

scholarly journals Using Mobility Data to Understand and Forecast COVID19 Dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijing Wang ◽  
Xue Ben ◽  
Aniruddha Adiga ◽  
Adam Sadilek ◽  
Ashish Tendulkar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Message Passing ◽  
Spatial Interaction ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
State Level ◽  
Interaction Patterns ◽  
Disease Dynamics ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact

Disease dynamics, human mobility, and public policies co-evolve during a pandemic such as COVID-19. Understanding dynamic human mobility changes and spatial interaction patterns are crucial for understanding and forecasting COVID-19 dynamics. We introduce a novel graph-based neural network(GNN) to incorporate global aggregated mobility flows for a better understanding of the impact of human mobility on COVID-19 dynamics as well as better forecasting of disease dynamics. We propose a recurrent message passing graph neural network that embeds spatio-temporal disease dynamics and human mobility dynamics for daily state-level new confirmed cases forecasting. This work represents one of the early papers on the use of GNNs to forecast COVID-19 incidence dynamics and our methods are competitive to existing methods. We show that the spatial and temporal dynamic mobility graph leveraged by the graph neural network enables better long-term forecasting performance compared to baselines.

scholarly journals A Resilient Large-Scale Trajectory Index for Cloud-Based Moving Object Applications

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (20) ◽  
pp. 7220
Author(s):  
Omar Alqahtani ◽  
Tom Altman
Keyword(s):  
Impact Factor ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Moving Object ◽  
Discrete Models ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Significant Performance ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact

The availability of location-aware devices generates tremendous volumes of moving object trajectories. The processing of these large-scale trajectories requires innovative techniques that are capable of adapting to changes in cloud systems to satisfy a wide range of applications and non-programmer end users. We introduce a Resilient Moving Object Index that is capable of balancing both spatial and object localities to maximize the overall performance in numerous environments. It is equipped with compulsory, discrete, and impact factor prediction models. The compulsory and discrete models are used to predict a locality pivot based on three fundamental aspects: computation resources, nature of the trajectories, and query types. The impact factor model is used to predict the influence of contrasting queries. Moreover, we provide a framework to extract efficient training sets and features without adding overhead to the index construction. We conduct an extensive experimental study to evaluate our approach. The evaluation includes two testbeds and covers spatial, temporal, spatio-temporal, continuous, aggregation, and retrieval queries. In most cases, the experiments show a significant performance improvement compared to various indexing schemes on a compact trajectory dataset as well as a sparse dataset. Most important, they demonstrate how our proposed index adapts to change in various environments.

scholarly journals Variation in human mobility and its impact on the risk of future COVID-19 outbreaks in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng-Chun Chang ◽  
Rebecca Kahn ◽  
Yu-An Li ◽  
Cheng-Sheng Lee ◽  
Caroline O. Buckee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Movement Data ◽  
Intercity Travel ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background As COVID-19 continues to spread around the world, understanding how patterns of human mobility and connectivity affect outbreak dynamics, especially before outbreaks establish locally, is critical for informing response efforts. In Taiwan, most cases to date were imported or linked to imported cases. Methods In collaboration with Facebook Data for Good, we characterized changes in movement patterns in Taiwan since February 2020, and built metapopulation models that incorporate human movement data to identify the high risk areas of disease spread and assess the potential effects of local travel restrictions in Taiwan. Results We found that mobility changed with the number of local cases in Taiwan in the past few months. For each city, we identified the most highly connected areas that may serve as sources of importation during an outbreak. We showed that the risk of an outbreak in Taiwan is enhanced if initial infections occur around holidays. Intracity travel reductions have a higher impact on the risk of an outbreak than intercity travel reductions, while intercity travel reductions can narrow the scope of the outbreak and help target resources. The timing, duration, and level of travel reduction together determine the impact of travel reductions on the number of infections, and multiple combinations of these can result in similar impact. Conclusions To prepare for the potential spread within Taiwan, we utilized Facebook’s aggregated and anonymized movement and colocation data to identify cities with higher risk of infection and regional importation. We developed an interactive application that allows users to vary inputs and assumptions and shows the spatial spread of the disease and the impact of intercity and intracity travel reduction under different initial conditions. Our results can be used readily if local transmission occurs in Taiwan after relaxation of border control, providing important insights into future disease surveillance and policies for travel restrictions.

scholarly journals Observing the silent world under COVID-19 with a comprehensive impact analysis based on human mobility

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaobin Wang ◽  
Yun Tong ◽  
Yupeng Fan ◽  
Haimeng Liu ◽  
Jun Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Underdeveloped Countries ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
Human World ◽  
Dynamic Relationships ◽  
The Impact

AbstractSince spring 2020, the human world seems to be exceptionally silent due to mobility reduction caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To better measure the real-time decline of human mobility and changes in socio-economic activities in a timely manner, we constructed a silent index (SI) based on Google’s mobility data. We systematically investigated the relations between SI, new COVID-19 cases, government policy, and the level of economic development. Results showed a drastic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on increasing SI. The impact of COVID-19 on human mobility varied significantly by country and place. Bi-directional dynamic relationships between SI and the new COVID-19 cases were detected, with a lagging period of one to two weeks. The travel restriction and social policies could immediately affect SI in one week; however, could not effectively sustain in the long run. SI may reflect the disturbing impact of disasters or catastrophic events on the activities related to the global or national economy. Underdeveloped countries are more affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Photovoltaic Power Forecasting: Assessment of the Impact of Multiple Sources of Spatio-Temporal Data on Forecast Accuracy

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1432
Author(s):  
Xwégnon Ghislain Agoua ◽  
Robin Girard ◽  
Georges Kariniotakis
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Images ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Temporal Data ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact

The efficient integration of photovoltaic (PV) production in energy systems is conditioned by the capacity to anticipate its variability, that is, the capacity to provide accurate forecasts. From the classical forecasting methods in the state of the art dealing with a single power plant, the focus has moved in recent years to spatio-temporal approaches, where geographically dispersed data are used as input to improve forecasts of a site for the horizons up to 6 h ahead. These spatio-temporal approaches provide different performances according to the data sources available but the question of the impact of each source on the actual forecasting performance is still not evaluated. In this paper, we propose a flexible spatio-temporal model to generate PV production forecasts for horizons up to 6 h ahead and we use this model to evaluate the effect of different spatial and temporal data sources on the accuracy of the forecasts. The sources considered are measurements from neighboring PV plants, local meteorological stations, Numerical Weather Predictions, and satellite images. The evaluation of the performance is carried out using a real-world test case featuring a high number of 136 PV plants. The forecasting error has been evaluated for each data source using the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The results show that neighboring PV plants help to achieve around 10% reduction in forecasting error for the first three hours, followed by satellite images which help to gain an additional 3% all over the horizons up to 6 h ahead. The NWP data show no improvement for horizons up to 6 h but is essential for greater horizons.

Predicting Human Mobility with Reinforcement-Learning-Based Long-Term Periodicity Modeling

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Shuo Tao ◽  
Jingang Jiang ◽  
Defu Lian ◽  
Kai Zheng ◽  
Enhong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Reinforcement Learning ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Recurrent Network ◽  
Mobility Prediction ◽  
Learning Framework ◽  
Temporal Features ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Historical Trajectory

Mobility prediction plays an important role in a wide range of location-based applications and services. However, there are three problems in the existing literature: (1) explicit high-order interactions of spatio-temporal features are not systemically modeled; (2) most existing algorithms place attention mechanisms on top of recurrent network, so they can not allow for full parallelism and are inferior to self-attention for capturing long-range dependence; (3) most literature does not make good use of long-term historical information and do not effectively model the long-term periodicity of users. To this end, we propose MoveNet and RLMoveNet. MoveNet is a self-attention-based sequential model, predicting each user’s next destination based on her most recent visits and historical trajectory. MoveNet first introduces a cross-based learning framework for modeling feature interactions. With self-attention on both the most recent visits and historical trajectory, MoveNet can use an attention mechanism to capture the user’s long-term regularity in a more efficient way. Based on MoveNet, to model long-term periodicity more effectively, we add the reinforcement learning layer and named RLMoveNet. RLMoveNet regards the human mobility prediction as a reinforcement learning problem, using the reinforcement learning layer as the regularization part to drive the model to pay attention to the behavior with periodic actions, which can help us make the algorithm more effective. We evaluate both of them with three real-world mobility datasets. MoveNet outperforms the state-of-the-art mobility predictor by around 10% in terms of accuracy, and simultaneously achieves faster convergence and over 4x training speedup. Moreover, RLMoveNet achieves higher prediction accuracy than MoveNet, which proves that modeling periodicity explicitly from the perspective of reinforcement learning is more effective.

scholarly journals A Survey on Spatio-temporal Data Analytics Systems

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Mahbub Alam ◽  
Luis Torgo ◽  
Albert Bifet
Keyword(s):  
Programming Languages ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Data Analytics ◽  
Spatial Databases ◽  
Location Based Services ◽  
Temporal Data ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Data Volume ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Gis Software

Due to the surge of spatio-temporal data volume, the popularity of location-based services and applications, and the importance of extracted knowledge from spatio-temporal data to solve a wide range of real-world problems, a plethora of research and development work has been done in the area of spatial and spatio-temporal data analytics in the past decade. The main goal of existing works was to develop algorithms and technologies to capture, store, manage, analyze, and visualize spatial or spatio-temporal data. The researchers have contributed either by adding spatio-temporal support with existing systems, by developing a new system from scratch, or by implementing algorithms for processing spatio-temporal data. The existing ecosystem of spatial and spatio-temporal data analytics systems can be categorized into three groups, (1) spatial databases (SQL and NoSQL), (2) big spatial data processing infrastructures, and (3) programming languages and GIS software. Since existing surveys mostly investigated infrastructures for processing big spatial data, this survey has explored the whole ecosystem of spatial and spatio-temporal analytics. This survey also portrays the importance and future of spatial and spatio-temporal data analytics.

Mobility Profiling

2014 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Mirco Nanni ◽  
Roberto Trasarti ◽  
Paolo Cintia ◽  
Barbara Furletti ◽  
Chiara Renso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Moving Objects ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Large Datasets ◽  
Accurate Analysis ◽  
Interesting Phenomenon ◽  
Transportation Management ◽  
Traffic Demand ◽  
Semantic Level ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Spatio Temporal

The ability to understand the dynamics of human mobility is crucial for tasks like urban planning and transportation management. The recent rapidly growing availability of large spatio-temporal datasets gives us the possibility to develop sophisticated and accurate analysis methods and algorithms that can enable us to explore several relevant mobility phenomena: the distinct access paths to a territory, the groups of persons that move together in space and time, the regions of a territory that contains a high density of traffic demand, etc. All these paradigmatic perspectives focus on a collective view of the mobility where the interesting phenomenon is the result of the contribution of several moving objects. In this chapter, the authors explore a different approach to the topic and focus on the analysis and understanding of relevant individual mobility habits in order to assign a profile to an individual on the basis of his/her mobility. This process adds a semantic level to the raw mobility data, enabling further analyses that require a deeper understanding of the data itself. The studies described in this chapter are based on two large datasets of spatio-temporal data, originated, respectively, from GPS-equipped devices and from a mobile phone network.

scholarly journals Identifying Urban Traveling Hotspots Using an Interaction-Based Spatio-Temporal Data Field and Trajectory Data: A Case Study within the Sixth Ring Road of Beijing

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (22) ◽  
pp. 9662 ◽  
Author(s):  
Disheng Yi ◽  
Yusi Liu ◽  
Jiahui Qin ◽  
Jing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Management ◽  
Spatial Clustering ◽  
Spatial Interaction ◽  
The Other ◽  
Temporal Data ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Data Field ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact

Exploring urban travelling hotspots has become a popular trend in geographic research in recent years. Their identification involved the idea of spatial autocorrelation and spatial clustering based on density in the previous research. However, there are some limitations to them, including the unremarkable results and the determination of various parameters. At the same time, none of them reflect the influences of their neighbors. Therefore, we used the concept of the data field and improved it with the impact of spatial interaction to solve those problems in this study. First of all, an interaction-based spatio-temporal data field identification for urban hotspots has been built. Then, the urban travelling hotspots of Beijing on weekdays and weekends are identified in six different periods. The detected hotspots are passed through qualitative and quantitative evaluations and compared with the other two methods. The results show that our method could discover more accurate hotspots than the other two methods. The spatio-temporal distributions of hotspots fit commuting activities, business activities, and nightlife activities on weekdays, and the hotspots discovered at weekends depict the entertainment activities of residents. Finally, we further discuss the spatial structures of urban hotspots in a particular period (09:00–12:00) as an example. It reflects the strong regularity of human travelling on weekdays, while human activities are more varied on weekends. Overall, this work has a certain theoretical and practical value for urban planning and traffic management.

scholarly journals The mobilize center: an NIH big data to knowledge center to advance human movement research and improve mobility

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 1120-1125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joy P Ku ◽  
Jennifer L Hicks ◽  
Trevor Hastie ◽  
Jure Leskovec ◽  
Christopher Ré ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Science ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Wearable Sensors ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Science Methods ◽  
Social Modeling ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Using Data ◽  
And Training

Abstract Regular physical activity helps prevent heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and other chronic diseases, yet a broad range of conditions impair mobility at great personal and societal cost. Vast amounts of data characterizing human movement are available from research labs, clinics, and millions of smartphones and wearable sensors, but integration and analysis of this large quantity of mobility data are extremely challenging. The authors have established the Mobilize Center ( http://mobilize.stanford.edu ) to harness these data to improve human mobility and help lay the foundation for using data science methods in biomedicine. The Center is organized around 4 data science research cores: biomechanical modeling, statistical learning, behavioral and social modeling, and integrative modeling. Important biomedical applications, such as osteoarthritis and weight management, will focus the development of new data science methods. By developing these new approaches, sharing data and validated software tools, and training thousands of researchers, the Mobilize Center will transform human movement research.

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