scholarly journals Climate-assisted persistence of tropical fish vagrants in temperate marine ecosystems

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Gajdzik ◽  
Thomas M. DeCarlo ◽  
Adam Koziol ◽  
Mahsa Mousavi-Derazmahalleh ◽  
Megan Coghlan ◽  
...  

AbstractRising temperatures and extreme climate events are propelling tropical species into temperate marine ecosystems, but not all species can persist. Here, we used the heatwave-driven expatriation of tropical Black Rabbitfish (Siganus fuscescens) to the temperate environments of Western Australia to assess the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that may entail their persistence. Population genomic assays for this rabbitfish indicated little genetic differentiation between tropical residents and vagrants to temperate environments due to high migration rates, which were likely enhanced by the marine heatwave. DNA metabarcoding revealed a diverse diet for this species based on phytoplankton and algae, as well as an ability to feed on regional resources, including kelp. Irrespective of future climate scenarios, these macroalgae-consuming vagrants may self-recruit in temperate environments and further expand their geographic range by the year 2100. This expansion may compromise the health of the kelp forests that form Australia’s Great Southern Reef. Overall, our study demonstrates that projected favourable climate conditions, continued large-scale genetic connectivity between populations, and diet versatility are key for tropical range-shifting fish to establish in temperate ecosystems.

2000 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 179-200 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.K. PINNEGAR ◽  
N.V.C. POLUNIN ◽  
P. FRANCOUR ◽  
F. BADALAMENTI ◽  
R. CHEMELLO ◽  
...  

An important principle of environmental science is that changes in single components of systems are likely to have consequences elsewhere in the same systems. In the sea, food web data are one of the few foundations for predicting such indirect effects, whether of fishery exploitation or following recovery in marine protected areas (MPAs). We review the available literature on one type of indirect interaction in benthic marine ecosystems, namely trophic cascades, which involve three or more trophic levels connected by predation. Because many indirect effects have been revealed through fishery exploitation, in some cases we include humans as trophic levels. Our purpose is to establish how widespread cascades might be, and infer how likely they are to affect the properties of communities following the implementation of MPAs or intensive resource exploitation. We review 39 documented cascades (eight of which include humans as a trophic level) from 21 locations around the world; all but two of the cascades are from shallow systems underlain by hard substrata (kelp forests, rocky subtidal, coral reefs and rocky intertidal). We argue that these systems are well represented because they are accessible and also amenable to the type of work that is necessary. Nineteen examples come from the central-eastern and north-eastern Pacific, while no well-substantiated benthic cascades have been reported from the NE, CE or SW Atlantic, the Southern Oceans, E Indian Ocean or NW Pacific. The absence of examples from those zones is probably due to lack of study. Sea urchins are very prominent in the subtidal examples, and gastropods, especially limpets, in the intertidal examples; we suggest that this may reflect their predation by fewer specialist predators than is the case with fishes, but also their conspicuousness to investigators. The variation in ecological resolution amongst studies, and in intensity of study amongst systems and regions, indicates that more cascades will likely be identified in due course. Broadening the concept of cascades to include pathogenic interactions would immediately increase the number of examples. The existing evidence is that cascade effects are to be expected when hard-substratum systems are subject to artisanal resource exploitation, but that the particular problems of macroalgal overgrowth on Caribbean reefs and the expansion of coralline barrens in the Mediterranean rocky-sublittoral will not be readily reversed in MPAs, probably because factors other than predation-based cascades have contributed to them in the first place. More cascade effects are likely to be found in the soft-substratum systems that are crucial to so many large-scale fisheries, when opportunities such as those of MPAs and fishing gradients become available for study of such systems, and the search is widened to less conspicuous focal organisms such as polychaetes and crustaceans.


Author(s):  
S.V. Emelina ◽  
◽  
V.M. Khan ◽  

The possibility of developing specialized seasonal forecasting within the framework of the North Eurasia Climate Centre is discussed. The purpose of these forecasts is to access the impacts of significant large-scale anomalies of meteorological elements on various economic sectors for the timely informing of government services and private businesses to select optimal strategies for planning preventive measures. A brief overview of the groups of climatic risks in the context of the impacts on the socio-economic sphere is given according to the Russian and foreign bibliographic sources. Examples of the activities of some Regional Climate Centers that produce forecast information with an assessment of possible impacts of weather and climate conditions at seasonal scales on various human activities are given. Keywords: climate services, regional climate forums, weather and climate risks, North Eurasia Climate Centre


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Crespi ◽  
Marcello Petitta ◽  
Lucas Grigis ◽  
Paola Marson ◽  
Jean-Michel Soubeyroux ◽  
...  

<p>Seasonal forecasts provide information on climate conditions several months ahead and therefore they could represent a valuable support for decision making, warning systems as well as for the optimization of industry and energy sectors. However, forecast systems can be affected by systematic biases and have horizontal resolutions which are typically coarser than the spatial scales of the practical applications. For this reason, the reliability of forecasts needs to be carefully assessed before applying and interpreting them for specific applications. In addition, the use of post-processing approaches is recommended in order to improve the representativeness of the large-scale predictions of regional and local climate conditions. The development and evaluation downscaling and bias-correction procedures aiming at improving the skills of the forecasts and the quality of derived climate services is currently an open research field. In this context, we evaluated the skills of ECMWF SEAS5 forecasts of monthly mean temperature, total precipitation and wind speed over Europe and we assessed the skill improvements of calibrated predictions.</p><p>For the calibration, we combined a bilinear interpolation and a quantile mapping approach to obtain corrected monthly forecasts on a 0.25°x0.25° grid from the original 1°x1° values. The forecasts were corrected against the reference ERA5 reanalysis over the hindcast period 1993–2016. The processed forecasts were compared over the same domain and period with another calibrated set of ECMWF SEAS5 forecasts obtained by the ADAMONT statistical method.</p><p>The skill assessment was performed by means of both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics evaluated over seasonal forecasted aggregations for the first lead time. Greater skills of the forecast systems in Europe were generally observed in spring and summer, especially for temperature, with a spatial distribution varying with the seasons. The calibration was proved to effectively correct the model biases for all variables, however the metrics not accounting for bias did not show significant improvements in most cases, and in some areas and seasons even small degradations in skills were observed.</p><p>The presented study supported the activities of the H2020 European project SECLI-FIRM on the improvement of the seasonal forecast applicability for energy production, management and assessment.</p>


Author(s):  
Ken P. Games ◽  
David I. Gordon

ABSTRACTSand waves are well known indicators of a mobile seabed. What do we expect of these features in terms of migration rates and seabed scour? We discuss these effects on seabed structures, both for the Oil and Gas and the Windfarm Industries, and consider how these impact on turbines and buried cables. Two case studies are presented. The first concerns a windfarm with a five-year gap between the planning survey and a subsequent cable route and environmental assessment survey. This revealed large-scale movements of sand waves, with the displacement of an isolated feature of 155 m in five years. Secondly, another windfarm development involved a re-survey, again over a five-year period, but after the turbines had been installed. This showed movements of sand waves of ∼50 m in five years. Observations of the scour effects on the turbines are discussed. Both sites revealed the presence of barchans. Whilst these have been extensively studied on land, there are few examples of how they behave in the marine environment. The two case studies presented show that mass transport is potentially much greater than expected and that this has implications for choosing turbine locations, the effect of scour, and the impact these sediment movements are likely to have on power cables.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iñigo Gómara ◽  
Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca ◽  
Elsa Mohino ◽  
Teresa Losada ◽  
Irene Polo ◽  
...  

AbstractTropical Pacific upwelling-dependent ecosystems are the most productive and variable worldwide, mainly due to the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO can be forecasted seasons ahead thanks to assorted climate precursors (local-Pacific processes, pantropical interactions). However, owing to observational data scarcity and bias-related issues in earth system models, little is known about the importance of these precursors for marine ecosystem prediction. With recently released reanalysis-nudged global marine ecosystem simulations, these constraints can be sidestepped, allowing full examination of tropical Pacific ecosystem predictability. By complementing historical fishing records with marine ecosystem model data, we show herein that equatorial Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) constitute a superlative predictability source for tropical Pacific marine yields, which can be forecasted over large-scale areas up to 2 years in advance. A detailed physical-biological mechanism is proposed whereby Atlantic SSTs modulate upwelling of nutrient-rich waters in the tropical Pacific, leading to a bottom-up propagation of the climate-related signal across the marine food web. Our results represent historical and near-future climate conditions and provide a useful springboard for implementing a marine ecosystem prediction system in the tropical Pacific.


Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 889
Author(s):  
Zeynab Foroozan ◽  
Jussi Grießinger ◽  
Kambiz Pourtahmasi ◽  
Achim Bräuning

In semi-arid regions of the world, knowledge about the long-term hydroclimate variability is essential to analyze and evaluate the impact of current climate change on ecosystems. We present the first tree-ring δ18O based hydroclimatic reconstruction for northern semi-arid Iran spanning the period 1515–2015. A highly significant correlation between tree-ring δ18O variations of juniper trees and spring (April–June) precipitation reveals a major influence of spring water availability during the early growing season. The driest period of the past 501 years occurred in the 16th century while the 18th century was the wettest, during which the overall highest frequency of wet year events occurred. A gradual decline in spring precipitation is evident from the beginning of the 19th century, pointing to even drier climate conditions. The analysis of dry/wet events indicates that the frequency of years with relatively dry spring increased over the last three centuries, while the number of wet events decreased. Our findings are in accordance with historical Persian disaster records (e.g., the severe droughts of 1870–1872, 1917–1919; severe flooding of 1867, the 1930s, and 1950). Correlation analyses between the reconstruction and different atmospheric circulation indices revealed no significant influence of large-scale drivers on spring precipitation in northern Iran.


2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. eaav0474 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason S. Link ◽  
Reg A. Watson

The well-documented value of marine fisheries is threatened by overfishing. Management typically focuses on target populations but lacks effective tools to document or restrain overexploitation of marine ecosystems. Here, we present three indices and accompanying thresholds to detect and delineate ecosystem overfishing (EOF): the Fogarty, Friedland, and Ryther indices. These are based on widely available and readily interpreted catch and satellite data that link fisheries landings to primary production using known limits of trophic transfer efficiency. We propose theoretically and empirically based thresholds for each of those indices; with these criteria, several ecosystems are fished sustainably, but nearly 40 to 50% of tropical and temperate ecosystems exceed even extreme thresholds. Applying these criteria to global fisheries data results in strong evidence for two specific instances of EOF, increases in both pressure on tropical fish and a climate-mediated polar shift. Here, we show that these two patterns represent evidence for global EOF.


2018 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antón Vizcaíno ◽  
Jorge Doña ◽  
Joaquín Vierna ◽  
Neus Marí-Mena ◽  
Rocío Esteban ◽  
...  

Ocean Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 271-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Guihou ◽  
Alberto R. Piola ◽  
Elbio D. Palma ◽  
Maria Paz Chidichimo

Abstract. The Humboldt Large Marine Ecosystem (HLME) and Patagonian Large Marine Ecosystem (PLME) are the two largest marine ecosystems in the Southern Hemisphere and are respectively located along the Pacific and Atlantic coasts of southern South America. This work investigates the exchange between these two LMEs and its seasonal and interannual variability by employing numerical model results and offline particle-tracking algorithms. Our analysis suggests a general poleward transport on the southern region of the HLME, a well-defined flux from the Pacific to the Atlantic, and equatorward transport on the PLME. Lagrangian simulations show that the majority of the southern PS waters originate from the upper layer in the southeast South Pacific (<200 m), mainly from the southern Chile and Cape Horn shelves. The exchange takes place through the Le Maire Strait, Magellan Strait, and the shelf break. These inflows amount to a net northeastward transport of 0.88 Sv at 51∘ S in the southern PLME. The transport across the Magellan Strait is small (0.1 Sv), but due to its relatively low salinity it greatly impacts the density and surface circulation of the coastal waters of the southern PLME. The water masses flowing into the Malvinas Embayment eventually reach the PLME through the Malvinas Shelf and occupy the outer part of the shelf. The seasonal and interannual variability of the transport are also addressed. On the southern PLME, the interannual variability of the shelf exchange is partly explained by the large-scale wind variability, which in turn is partly associated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index (r=0.52).


2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 3381-3401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sinan Şahin ◽  
Murat Türkeş ◽  
Sheng-Hung Wang ◽  
David Hannah ◽  
Warren Eastwood

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document