Plan for the development of specialized climate forecasting in NEACC

2021 ◽  
pp. 101-111
Author(s):  
S.V. Emelina ◽  
◽  
V.M. Khan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
The North ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
North Eurasia

The possibility of developing specialized seasonal forecasting within the framework of the North Eurasia Climate Centre is discussed. The purpose of these forecasts is to access the impacts of significant large-scale anomalies of meteorological elements on various economic sectors for the timely informing of government services and private businesses to select optimal strategies for planning preventive measures. A brief overview of the groups of climatic risks in the context of the impacts on the socio-economic sphere is given according to the Russian and foreign bibliographic sources. Examples of the activities of some Regional Climate Centers that produce forecast information with an assessment of possible impacts of weather and climate conditions at seasonal scales on various human activities are given. Keywords: climate services, regional climate forums, weather and climate risks, North Eurasia Climate Centre

Skill assessment of post-processing methods for ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecasts over Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Crespi ◽  
Marcello Petitta ◽  
Lucas Grigis ◽  
Paola Marson ◽  
Jean-Michel Soubeyroux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Production Management ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Research Field ◽  
Skill Assessment ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions

<p>Seasonal forecasts provide information on climate conditions several months ahead and therefore they could represent a valuable support for decision making, warning systems as well as for the optimization of industry and energy sectors. However, forecast systems can be affected by systematic biases and have horizontal resolutions which are typically coarser than the spatial scales of the practical applications. For this reason, the reliability of forecasts needs to be carefully assessed before applying and interpreting them for specific applications. In addition, the use of post-processing approaches is recommended in order to improve the representativeness of the large-scale predictions of regional and local climate conditions. The development and evaluation downscaling and bias-correction procedures aiming at improving the skills of the forecasts and the quality of derived climate services is currently an open research field. In this context, we evaluated the skills of ECMWF SEAS5 forecasts of monthly mean temperature, total precipitation and wind speed over Europe and we assessed the skill improvements of calibrated predictions.</p><p>For the calibration, we combined a bilinear interpolation and a quantile mapping approach to obtain corrected monthly forecasts on a 0.25°x0.25° grid from the original 1°x1° values. The forecasts were corrected against the reference ERA5 reanalysis over the hindcast period 1993–2016. The processed forecasts were compared over the same domain and period with another calibrated set of ECMWF SEAS5 forecasts obtained by the ADAMONT statistical method.</p><p>The skill assessment was performed by means of both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics evaluated over seasonal forecasted aggregations for the first lead time. Greater skills of the forecast systems in Europe were generally observed in spring and summer, especially for temperature, with a spatial distribution varying with the seasons. The calibration was proved to effectively correct the model biases for all variables, however the metrics not accounting for bias did not show significant improvements in most cases, and in some areas and seasons even small degradations in skills were observed.</p><p>The presented study supported the activities of the H2020 European project SECLI-FIRM on the improvement of the seasonal forecast applicability for energy production, management and assessment.</p>

scholarly journals Sugarcane Yield Forecast in Ivory Coast (West Africa) Based on Weather and Vegetation Index Data

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1459
Author(s):  
Edouard Pignède ◽  
Philippe Roudier ◽  
Arona Diedhiou ◽  
Vami Hermann N’Guessan Bi ◽  
Arsène T. Kobea ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Cultural Practices ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
The North ◽  
Sugarcane Yield

One way to use climate services in the case of sugarcane is to develop models that forecast yields to help the sector to be better prepared against climate risks. In this study, several models for forecasting sugarcane yields were developed and compared in the north of Ivory Coast (West Africa). These models were based on statistical methods, ranging from linear regression to machine learning algorithms such as the random forest method, fed by climate data (rainfall, temperature); satellite products (NDVI, EVI from MODIS Vegetation Index product) and information on cropping practices. The results show that the forecasting of sugarcane yield depended on the area considered. At the plot level, the noise due to cultivation practices can hide the effects of climate on yields and leads to poor forecasting performance. However, models using satellite variables are more efficient and those with EVI alone may explain 43% of yield variations. Moreover, taking into account cultural practices in the model improves the score and enables one to forecast 3 months before harvest in 50% and 69% of cases whether yields will be high or low, respectively, with errors of only 10% and 2%, respectively. These results on the predictive potential of sugarcane yields are useful for planning and climate risk management in this sector.

scholarly journals Regional assessment of climate risks using GIS technologies (on the example of the Belgorod Region)

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 271-278
Author(s):  
Yuri Chendev ◽  
Maria Lebedeva ◽  
Olga Krymskaya ◽  
Maria Petina
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
The Impact

The ongoing climate change requires a quantitative assessment of the impact of weather conditions on the nature and livelihoods of the population. However, to date, the concept of “climate risk” has not been finally defined, and the corresponding terminology is not universally recognized. One manifestation of climate change is an increase in climate variability and extremeness in many regions. At the same time, modern statistics indicate growing worldwide damage from dangerous weather and climate events. The most widely used in climate services is the concept of “Vulnerability index”, which reflects a combination (with or without weighing) of several indicators that indicate the potential damage that climate change can cause to a particular sector of the economy. development of adaptation measures to ensure sustainable development of territories. The main criterion for the vulnerability of the territory from the point of view of meteorological parameters is the extremeness of the basic values: daily air temperature, daily precipitation, maximum wind speed. To fully take into account the possible impacts of extreme climatic conditions on the region’s economy, it is necessary to detail the weather and climate risks taking into account the entire observation network, since significant differences in quantitative assessment are possible. The obtained average regional values of the climate vulnerability indices for the Belgorod Region of the Russian Federation provide 150 points for the winter period, 330 points for the summer season, which indicates the prevalence of extreme weather conditions in the warm season. Most of the territory has a relative influence on climatic phenomena, with the exception of the East and the Southeast Region. Moreover, the eastern part of the region is the most vulnerable in climatic terms.

scholarly journals Climate Perspectives in the Intra–Americas Seas

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 959
Author(s):  
Ana María Durán-Quesada ◽  
Rogert Sorí ◽  
Paulina Ordoñez ◽  
Luis Gimeno
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
The Impact

The Intra–Americas Seas region is known for its relevance to air–sea interaction processes, the contrast between large water masses and a relatively small continental area, and the occurrence of extreme events. The differing weather systems and the influence of variability at different spatio–temporal scales is a characteristic feature of the region. The impact of hydro–meteorological extreme events has played a huge importance for regional livelihood, having a mostly negative impact on socioeconomics. The frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events and droughts are often discussed in terms of their impact on economic activities and access to water. Furthermore, future climate projections suggest that warming scenarios are likely to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events, which poses a major threat to vulnerable communities. In a region where the economy is largely dependent on agriculture and the population is exposed to the impact of extremes, understanding the climate system is key to informed policymaking and management plans. A wealth of knowledge has been published on regional weather and climate, with a majority of studies focusing on specific components of the system. This study aims to provide an integral overview of regional weather and climate suitable for a wider community. Following the presentation of the general features of the region, a large scale is introduced outlining the main structures that affect regional climate. The most relevant climate features are briefly described, focusing on sea surface temperature, low–level circulation, and rainfall patterns. The impact of climate variability at the intra–seasonal, inter–annual, decadal, and multi–decadal scales is discussed. Climate change is considered in the regional context, based on current knowledge for natural and anthropogenic climate change. The present challenges in regional weather and climate studies have also been included in the concluding sections of this review. The overarching aim of this work is to leverage information that may be transferred efficiently to support decision–making processes and provide a solid foundation on regional weather and climate for professionals from different backgrounds.

How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?

2010 ◽  
Vol 368 (1931) ◽  
pp. 5117-5135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debbie Hemming ◽  
Carlo Buontempo ◽  
Eleanor Burke ◽  
Mat Collins ◽  
Neil Kaye
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
General Distribution ◽  
The North ◽  
Run Off

The projection of robust regional climate changes over the next 50 years presents a considerable challenge for the current generation of climate models. Water cycle changes are particularly difficult to model in this area because major uncertainties exist in the representation of processes such as large-scale and convective rainfall and their feedback with surface conditions. We present climate model projections and uncertainties in water availability indicators (precipitation, run-off and drought index) for the 1961–1990 and 2021–2050 periods. Ensembles from two global climate models (GCMs) and one regional climate model (RCM) are used to examine different elements of uncertainty. Although all three ensembles capture the general distribution of observed annual precipitation across the Middle East, the RCM is consistently wetter than observations, especially over the mountainous areas. All future projections show decreasing precipitation (ensemble median between −5 and −25%) in coastal Turkey and parts of Lebanon, Syria and Israel and consistent run-off and drought index changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) GCM ensemble exhibits drying across the north of the region, whereas the Met Office Hadley Centre work Quantifying Uncertainties in Model ProjectionsAtmospheric (QUMP-A) GCM and RCM ensembles show slight drying in the north and significant wetting in the south. RCM projections also show greater sensitivity (both wetter and drier) and a wider uncertainty range than QUMP-A. The nature of these uncertainties suggests that both large-scale circulation patterns, which influence region-wide drying/wetting patterns, and regional-scale processes, which affect localized water availability, are important sources of uncertainty in these projections. To reduce large uncertainties in water availability projections, it is suggested that efforts would be well placed to focus on the understanding and modelling of both large-scale processes and their teleconnections with Middle East climate and localized processes involved in orographic precipitation.

scholarly journals Airsynoptical Conditions Which Had an Influence on Air Temperature Regime During Warm Season, in Northern Moldavia, in the Past 20 Years (1994–2013)

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-188
Author(s):  
Nicolae Ilie ◽  
Liviu Apostol ◽  
Livia Mădălina Olaru
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
General Trend ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
The Look

Abstract In the present work has been studied weather types that have characterized the North of Moldavia over the last 20 years and the role of synoptic conditions which stood behind them. In this study, we will show the role of airsynoptical conditions which give the look of the weather characterized during this period, a frequency of types of circulations to highlight a general trend, the induced effects on air temperature and in the weather and climate risks, that resulted (scattered thunderstorms phenomena associated with a high termic contrast, dryness, freezing phenomena, early, in the final of August and September and later, in April-May.

Maize Drought Hazard in the Northeast Farming Region of China: Unprecedented Events in the Current Climate

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (10) ◽  
pp. 2247-2258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Kent ◽  
Edward Pope ◽  
Nick Dunstone ◽  
Adam A. Scaife ◽  
Zhan Tian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Height Anomaly ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
Climate Exposure ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

AbstractThe Northeast Farming Region (NFR) of China is a critically important area of maize cultivation accounting for ~30% of national production. It is predominantly rain fed, meaning that adverse climate conditions such as drought can significantly affect productivity. Forewarning of such events, to improve contingency planning, could therefore be highly beneficial to the agricultural sector. For this, an improved estimate of drought exposure, and the associated large-scale circulation patterns, is of critical importance. We address these important questions by employing a large ensemble of initialized climate model simulations. These simulations provide 80 times as many summers as the equivalent observational dataset and highlight several limitations of the recent observational record. For example, the chance of a drought greater in area than any current observed event is approximately 5% per year, suggesting the risk of a major drought is significantly underestimated if based solely on recent events. The combination of a weakened East Asian jet stream and intensified subpolar jet are found to be associated with severe NFR drought through enhanced upper-level convergence and anomalous descent, reducing moisture and suppressing precipitation. We identify a strong 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly dipole pattern as a useful metric to identify this mechanism for relevance to seasonal predictability. This work can inform policy planning and decision-making through an improved understanding of the near-term climate exposure and form the basis of new climate services.

Climate change impacts on European wheat and maize yields

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Toreti ◽  
Andrej Ceglar ◽  
Frank Dentener ◽  
Davide Fumagalli ◽  
Simona Bassu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Precipitation Regimes ◽  
Maize Yields ◽  
Projected Changes

<p>Crop yields are influenced and affected by climate conditions and the occurrence of extreme events in critical phenological phases during the growing season. As projected climate change for Europe points to an increase of climate extremes as well as a significant warming together with changes in precipitation regimes, it is essential to assess impacts on key socio-economic sectors such as agriculture. Here, we analyse European wheat and maize yields as projected by a crop model driven by bias-adjusted Euro-CORDEX regional climate model simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The main findings highlight as maize will be the most affected crop with limited effects of simple adaptation strategies; while a north-south dipole in the projected changes characterizes wheat yields. In the wheat regions negatively affected by climate change, adaptation strategies will play a key role in counterbalancing the impacts of the projected changes. </p>

Summer Nonconvective Severe Wind Frequency over Ontario and Its Correlation with Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (5) ◽  
pp. 1170-1182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Da-Lin Zhang ◽  
Zuohao Cao ◽  
Jianmin Ma ◽  
Aiming Wu
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Climate Conditions

AbstractThe summer nonconvective severe surface wind (NCSSW) frequency over Ontario, Canada, in relation to regional climate conditions and tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the period of 1979–2006 is examined using surface wind reports and large-scale analysis data. A statistically robust positive trend in Ontario summer NCSSW frequency is identified using three independent statistical approaches, which include the conventional linear regression that has little disturbance to the original time series, the Mann–Kendall test without a lag-1 autoregressive process, and the Monte Carlo simulation. A composite analysis of the large-scale monthly mean data reveals that the high- (low-) NCSSW occurrence years are linked to stronger (weaker) large-scale horizontal pressure gradients and more (less) intensive vector wind anomalies in the upper troposphere. Unlike the low-event years, anomalous anticyclonic circulations are found at 500 and 250 hPa in the high-event years, which are conducive to downward momentum transport and favorable for severe surface wind development. It is also found that the summer NCSSW occurs more frequently under the conditions of warmer surface air temperature over Ontario. Further analyses indicate that an increase in the summer NCSSW frequency is well correlated with an increase in the previous winter SSTs over the eastern equatorial Pacific, namely, in the Niño-1+2 and Niño-3 areas, through a decrease in sea level pressure over northern Ontario and an increase in surface air temperature over central and southern Ontario.

scholarly journals Causes of future Mediterranean precipitation decline depend on the season

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Brogli ◽  
Silje Lund Sørland ◽  
Nico Kröner ◽  
Christoph Schär
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Environmental Research ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Circulation Changes

<p>The Mediterranean is among the global 'hot-spots' of climate change, where severe consequences of climate change are expected. Changes in the atmospheric water cycle are among the leading causes of the vulnerability of the Mediterranean to greenhouse gas-driven warming. Specifically, precipitation is projected to decrease year-round, which is expected to have major impacts on hydrology, biodiversity, agriculture, hydropower, and further economic sectors that rely on sufficient water supply.</p><p>We investigate possible causes of the Mediterranean drying in regional climate simulations. To isolate the influence of multiple large-scale drivers on the drying, we sequentially add the respective drivers from global models to regional climate model simulations. We show that the causes of the Mediterranean drying depend on the season. We will present in detail how the summer drying is driven by the land-ocean warming contrast, lapse-rate and other thermodynamic changes, while it only weakly depends on circulation changes. In contrast, changes in the circulation are the primary driver for the projected winter precipitation decline. Since land-ocean contrast, thermodynamic and lapse-rate changes are more robust in climate simulations than circulation changes, the uncertainty associated with the projected drying should be considered smaller in summer than in winter.</p><p>Reference: Brogli, R., S. L. Sørland, N. Kröner, and C. Schär, 2019: Causes of future Mediterranean precipitation decline depend on the season. Environmental Research Letters, 14, 114017, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4438.</p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document