scholarly journals Modelling fatigue assessment at the vehicle driver’s station

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 02018
Author(s):  
Piotr Maksym ◽  
Halina Pawlak
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Health Condition ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Network Technology ◽  
Fatigue Assessment ◽  
Professional Drivers

The article presents the principles of fatigue assessment modeling in a driver's station using Bayesian networks. One of the causes of road collisions and accidents is fatigue. The factors determining fatigue are age of driver, psychophysical and health condition, time and length of the route being taken. At present, there is no clear criteria for assessing fatigue among professional drivers, so the objective of assessment is to attempt to design and construct a fatigue assessment model using Bayesian network technology.

Application of Bayesian for the Situation Assessment of Sea-Battlefield

2013 ◽  
Vol 346 ◽  
pp. 135-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Tao Yu ◽  
Ying Ding ◽  
Zheng Xi Ding
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Conditional Probability ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Situation Assessment ◽  
Network Characteristics ◽  
Specific Assessment

The sea-battlefield situation is dynamic and how efficient sea-battlefield situation assessment is a major problem facing operational decision support. According to research based on Bayesian networks Sea-battlefield situation assessment, first constructed sea-battlefield situation assessment Bayesian network; followed by specific assessment objectives, to simplify creating sub Bayesian assessment model; once again based on Bayesian network characteristics to determine each node probability formula; finally, according to the formula for solving the edge of the probability and the conditional probability of each node, sea-battlefield situation assessment.

Application of Bayesian Network in Safety Evaluation of Metro Construction

2013 ◽  
Vol 838-841 ◽  
pp. 1463-1468
Author(s):  
Xiang Ke Liu ◽  
Zhi Shen Wang ◽  
Hai Liang Wang ◽  
Jun Tao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Posterior Probability ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Tunnel Blasting ◽  
Better Than

The paper introduced the Bayesian networks briefly and discussed the algorithm of transforming fault tree into Bayesian networks at first, then regarded the structures impaired caused by tunnel blasting construction as a example, introduced the built and calculated method of the Bayesian networks by matlab. Then assumed the probabilities of essential events, calculated the probability of top event and the posterior probability of each essential events by the Bayesian networks. After that the paper contrast the characteristics of fault tree analysis and the Bayesian networks, Identified that the Bayesian networks is better than fault tree analysis in safety evaluation in some case, and provided a valid way to assess risk in metro construction.

scholarly journals Modeling the City Distribution System Reliability with Bayesian Networks to Identify Influence Factors

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Zhang ◽  
Liyu Zhu ◽  
Shensi Xu
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
System Reliability ◽  
Distribution System ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Correlation Degree ◽  
Urban Distribution ◽  
Distribution System Reliability ◽  
The City

Under the increasingly uncertain economic environment, the research on the reliability of urban distribution system has great practical significance for the integration of logistics and supply chain resources. This paper summarizes the factors that affect the city logistics distribution system. Starting from the research of factors that influence the reliability of city distribution system, further construction of city distribution system reliability influence model is built based on Bayesian networks. The complex problem is simplified by using the sub-Bayesian network, and an example is analyzed. In the calculation process, we combined the traditional Bayesian algorithm and the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, which made the Bayesian model able to lay a more accurate foundation. The results show that the Bayesian network can accurately reflect the dynamic relationship among the factors affecting the reliability of urban distribution system. Moreover, by changing the prior probability of the node of the cause, the correlation degree between the variables that affect the successful distribution can be calculated. The results have significant practical significance on improving the quality of distribution, the level of distribution, and the efficiency of enterprises.

scholarly journals A dynamic Bayesian network approach for prognosis computations on discrete state systems

2017 ◽  
Vol 231 (5) ◽  
pp. 516-533 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josquin Foulliaron ◽  
Laurent Bouillaut ◽  
Patrice Aknin ◽  
Anne Barros
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Multicomponent System ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Network ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Networks ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Predictive Maintenance ◽  
Discrete State ◽  
Virtual Maintenance

The maintenance optimization of complex systems is a key question. One important objective is to be able to anticipate future maintenance actions required to optimize the logistic and future investments. That is why, over the past few years, the predictive maintenance approaches have been an expanding area of research. They rely on the concept of prognosis. Many papers have shown how dynamic Bayesian networks can be relevant to represent multicomponent complex systems and carry out reliability studies. The diagnosis and maintenance group from French institute of science and technology for transport, development and networks (IFSTTAR) developed a model (VirMaLab: Virtual Maintenance Laboratory) based on dynamic Bayesian networks in order to model a multicomponent system with its degradation dynamic and its diagnosis and maintenance processes. Its main purpose is to model a maintenance policy to be able to optimize the maintenance parameters due to the use of dynamic Bayesian networks. A discrete state-space system is considered, periodically observable through a diagnosis process. Such systems are common in railway or road infrastructure fields. This article presents a prognosis algorithm whose purpose is to compute the remaining useful life of the system and update this estimation each time a new diagnosis is available. Then, a representation of this algorithm is given as a dynamic Bayesian network in order to be next integrated into the Virtual Maintenance Laboratory model to include the set of predictive maintenance policies. Inference computation questions on the considered dynamic Bayesian networks will be discussed. Finally, an application on simulated data will be presented.

scholarly journals The engineering skills training process modeling using dynamic bayesian nets

2021 ◽  
pp. 87-96
Author(s):  
Andrey Chukhray ◽  
Olena Havrylenko
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Learning Process ◽  
Probabilistic Inference ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Network ◽  
Computer Training ◽  
Skills Training ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Networks ◽  
Competence Level ◽  
Intelligent Computer

The subject of research in the article is the process of intelligent computer training in engineering skills. The aim is to model the process of teaching engineering skills in intelligent computer training programs through dynamic Bayesian networks. Objectives: To propose an approach to modeling the process of teaching engineering skills. To assess the student competence level by considering the algorithms development skills in engineering tasks and the algorithms implementation ability. To create a dynamic Bayesian network structure for the learning process. To select values for conditional probability tables. To solve the problems of filtering, forecasting, and retrospective analysis. To simulate the developed dynamic Bayesian network using a special Genie 2.0-environment. The methods used are probability theory and inference methods in Bayesian networks. The following results are obtained: the development of a dynamic Bayesian network for the educational process based on the solution of engineering problems is presented. Mathematical calculations for probabilistic inference problems such as filtering, forecasting, and smoothing are considered. The solution of the filtering problem makes it possible to assess the current level of the student's competence after obtaining the latest probabilities of the development of the algorithm and its numerical calculations of the task. The probability distribution of the learning process model is predicted. The number of additional iterations required to achieve the required competence level was estimated. The retrospective analysis allows getting a smoothed assessment of the competence level, which was obtained after the task's previous instance completion and after the computation of new additional probabilities characterizing the two checkpoints implementation. The solution of the described probabilistic inference problems makes it possible to provide correct information about the learning process for intelligent computer training systems. It helps to get proper feedback and to track the student's competence level. The developed technique of the kernel of probabilistic inference can be used as the decision-making model basis for an automated training process. The scientific novelty lies in the fact that dynamic Bayesian networks are applied to a new class of problems related to the simulation of engineering skills training in the process of performing algorithmic tasks.

scholarly journals AIS-BN: An Adaptive Importance Sampling Algorithm for Evidential Reasoning in Large Bayesian Networks

2000 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 155-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Cheng ◽  
M. J. Druzdzel
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Importance Sampling ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Evidential Reasoning ◽  
The Other ◽  
Sampling Algorithm ◽  
Importance Function ◽  
Sampling Algorithms ◽  
Bayesian Network Models

Stochastic sampling algorithms, while an attractive alternative to exact algorithms in very large Bayesian network models, have been observed to perform poorly in evidential reasoning with extremely unlikely evidence. To address this problem, we propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm, AIS-BN, that shows promising convergence rates even under extreme conditions and seems to outperform the existing sampling algorithms consistently. Three sources of this performance improvement are (1) two heuristics for initialization of the importance function that are based on the theoretical properties of importance sampling in finite-dimensional integrals and the structural advantages of Bayesian networks, (2) a smooth learning method for the importance function, and (3) a dynamic weighting function for combining samples from different stages of the algorithm. We tested the performance of the AIS-BN algorithm along with two state of the art general purpose sampling algorithms, likelihood weighting (Fung & Chang, 1989; Shachter & Peot, 1989) and self-importance sampling (Shachter & Peot, 1989). We used in our tests three large real Bayesian network models available to the scientific community: the CPCS network (Pradhan et al., 1994), the PathFinder network (Heckerman, Horvitz, & Nathwani, 1990), and the ANDES network (Conati, Gertner, VanLehn, & Druzdzel, 1997), with evidence as unlikely as 10^-41. While the AIS-BN algorithm always performed better than the other two algorithms, in the majority of the test cases it achieved orders of magnitude improvement in precision of the results. Improvement in speed given a desired precision is even more dramatic, although we are unable to report numerical results here, as the other algorithms almost never achieved the precision reached even by the first few iterations of the AIS-BN algorithm.

scholarly journals INCREMENTAL COMPILATION OF BAYESIAN NETWORKS BASED ON MAXIMAL PRIME SUBGRAPHS

2011 ◽  
Vol 19 (02) ◽  
pp. 155-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. JULIA FLORES ◽  
JOSE A. GÁMEZ ◽  
KRISTIAN G. OLESEN
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Great Improvement ◽  
Experimental Evaluation ◽  
Iterative Process ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Probability Propagation ◽  
Incremental Compilation

When a Bayesian network (BN) is modified, for example adding or deleting a node, or changing the probability distributions, we usually will need a total recompilation of the model, despite feeling that a partial (re)compilation could have been enough. Especially when considering dynamic models, in which variables are added and removed very frequently, these recompilations are quite resource consuming. But even further, for the task of building a model, which is in many occasions an iterative process, there is a clear lack of flexibility. When we use the term Incremental Compilation or IC we refer to the possibility of modifying a network and avoiding a complete recompilation to obtain the new (and different) join tree (JT). The main point we intend to study in this work is JT-based inference in Bayesian networks. Apart from undertaking the triangulation problem itself, we have achieved a great improvement for the compilation in BNs. We do not develop a new architecture for BNs inference, but taking some already existing framework JT-based for probability propagation such as Hugin or Shenoy and Shafer, we have designed a method that can be successfully applied to get better performance, as the experimental evaluation will show.

Establishment of Risk Assessment Model for Ship Collision using Applied Bayesian Network -Collision Accidents between Fishing vessels and Cargo Vessels -

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takeshi Shinoda ◽  
Koji Uru
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Fishing Vessels ◽  
Formal Safety Assessment ◽  
Trial Cost

In this study, a risk assessment model for ship collisions is proposed according to the guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) approved by IMO in 2002. The analysis is applied to ship collisions between fishing and cargo vessels owing to their high frequency and enormous damage. Bayesian network theory for risk analysis has been applied to reveal a causal relationship on human factors. A trial evaluation of Risk Control Options (RCOs) for collisions is attempted through the calculation of the dominance index. Finally, a trial cost benefit analysis for RCOs is considered through Gross Cost of Averting Fatality (GCAF) in FSA.

scholarly journals Using Bayesian networks for the assessment of underwater scour for road and railway bridges

2020 ◽  
pp. 147592172095657
Author(s):  
Andrea Maroni ◽  
Enrico Tubaldi ◽  
Dimitri V Val ◽  
Hazel McDonald ◽  
Daniele Zonta
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Flow Characteristics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Monitoring Systems ◽  
Scour Depth ◽  
Bridge Scour ◽  
Railway Bridges ◽  
Scour Monitoring

Flood-induced scour is among the most common external causes of bridge failures worldwide. In the United States, scour is the cause of 22 bridges fails every year, whereas in the UK, it contributed significantly to the 138 collapses of bridges in the last century. Scour assessments are currently based on visual inspections, which are time-consuming and expensive. Nowadays, sensor and communication technologies offer the possibility to assess in real time the scour depth at critical bridge locations; yet, monitoring an entire infrastructure network is not economically feasible. A way to overcome this limitation is to instal scour monitoring systems at critical bridge locations, and then extend the piece of information gained to the other assets exploiting the correlations present in the system. In this article, we propose a scour hazard model for road and railway bridge scour management that utilises information from a limited number of scour monitoring systems to achieve a more confined estimate of the scour risk for a bridge network. A Bayesian network is used to describe the conditional dependencies among the involved random variables and to update the scour depth distribution using data from monitoring of scour and river flow characteristics. This study constitutes the first application of Bayesian networks to bridge scour risk assessment. The proposed probabilistic framework is applied to a case study consisting of several road bridges in Scotland. The bridges cross the same river, and only one of them is instrumented with a scour monitoring system. It is demonstrated how the Bayesian network approach allows to significantly reduce the uncertainty in the scour depth at unmonitored bridges.

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