scholarly journals Cost prediction model based on system dynamics in water resource project

2019 ◽  
Vol 258 ◽  
pp. 02027
Author(s):  
Hirijanto ◽  
I Wayan Mundra ◽  
Addy Utomo

Project’s cost is one of important components in project achievement. Because of the uniqueness of construction projects, cost estimation always differs from project to project. The rate of cost components always change over time make difficult to forecast the cost for the upcoming project. The cost component consists of many influencing variables where there is interrelationship each other affecting to the total project cost. This paper objective is to develop a cost prediction model to assist the project planners in cost estimation for future projects. System dynamic is one of the appropriate methods to analyse system behaviour with interrelationship referring to the historic data, so it is able to predict the future project. Developing the model, primary and secondary data are collected from previous studies, interview with the government planner and survey in Malang Regency. The model simulation is Brick work unit with its components. Data from last thirteen years are used to verify and validate the developed model by causal loop diagram as a basic method in system dynamic. The finding showed that the model is closed to real condition through the validation mechanism. The developed system is useful in decision making of budget planning based on work quantity.

Author(s):  
Varun Gupta ◽  
Aditya Raj Gupta ◽  
Utkarsh Agrawal ◽  
Ambika Kumar ◽  
Rahul Verma

The firm or the government invites bids against the tender whenever it requires third party to provide services to it like undertaking construction projects, delivery of material, etc. Interested parties gives their bid prices in sealed envelopes and the lowest bid rate wins the contract. However, contractor, in order to win the contract, may not estimate the cost of the project accurately as the estimation of factors contributing to the costs may be based on educated guesswork according to the past experiences. This increases the chances of the final cost of the project to go up in the end, which is to be borne by contractor. Hence, accurate and effective cost estimation is required. This chapter proposed an algorithm to provide a proper way for the contractors to estimate the accurate cost of the project for which they provide bids. This chapter provides an effective solution to the problem of inaccurate cost estimation. The algorithms are automated using a web-based tool.


Author(s):  
Fitrotu Aini

ABSTRACTHajj as a great symbol of worship. Hajj is the fifth pillar of Islam which is mandatory for every Muslim who are able to da it in accordance with the legal requirement of pilgrimage. One of the legal conditions of Hajj is the capability, capable to cover the cost of the hajj and the family left behind. Panin Bank Dubai Sharia Bank was established based on the regulation of Limited Company No. 12 dated January 8, 1972 by Moeslim Dalidd, a notary in Malang. PT. Bank Panin Dubai Syariah Tbk has been legalized by the Financial Services Authority ("OJK"), in accordance with a copy of the policy of the Board of Commissioners of OJK No. Kep-29 / D.03 / 2016 on July 26, 2016.Therefore, through this research, the writer wants to understand: (1) how is the practice of applying alternative financial agreement of hajj and umrah after the implementation of regulation made by ministry of religious affair No. 24 year 2016 at Panin Bank Dubai Syariah Surabaya branch? (2) What is the analysis of Islamic law on the practice of multilateral contract alternative application in this Bank? Therefore, this study is aimed to, firstly, understand and describe the application of alternative contracts to hajj and umrah after the regulation of Ministry of Religious Affairs No. 24 of 2016 in Panin Bank Dubai Sharia branch Surabaya, and to describe the analysis of Sharia Economic Law about the practice of applying alternative contract in the bank.The method used in this research is qualitative method. The research data are taken in natural situation in Panin Bank Dubai Syariah Surabaya. The data are taken during operational hours using case study approach. Are done through interview technique with the main participant, Assistant Manager 1, and document, archive, book, sample of registration, as secondary data source. The data are analyzed through 3 (three) data deduction, display data and ended with conclusion and verification.The results of the study indicate that the Panin Bank Dubai Sharia runs in accordance with the government regulation No. 24 year 2016 "BPS BPIH is prohibited from providing direct and indirect Hajj money service" including Hajj and Umrah services using various financing products and funds saving, funds collecting in the form of deposits, savings or other forms, using multi-service financing akad wadi'ah, with the savings of hajj services with initial minimum deposit of Rp500,000,and according to customers’ ability. Keywords: hajj, umrah, wadi'ah.


Author(s):  
Octavio P.M Marques ◽  
I M. Alit K. Salain ◽  
I W. Yansen

Building project as one of the construction services are filled with varying risks during the construction phase of the project implementation. At the stage of the project implementation, risks may arise either the risk of time, cost and those which affect the quality of the project. Therefore, we need to understand the risks at the construction phase and mitigation to the risks to meet in execution of project based on initial planning. The study was conducted to identify the risks in the implementation of construction projects of government buildings by using survey methods that aim to get the opinion of the respondents regarding the risks at implementation of the government building construction projects in the city of Dili - Timor Leste. Further, it was done a risk assessment to determine the major or main risks. Major risk is controlled through mitigation measures and allocation of risks to the parties directly involved in construction projects such as Project Owner, Technical Supervisor, Consultant Design, Consultant Supervision and Contractor. The analysis used in this study is a qualitative analysis. The results showed 64 risks identified in the implementation of construction projects there are 10 government buildings risks (16%) with an unacceptable category, 18 risks (28%) with the undesirable category, 28 risks (44%) with acceptable category and 8 risks (12%) with negligible category. Ownership of major / main risk to the parties directly involved in the implementation of construction projects such as the project owner, technical supervisor, consultant design, consultant supervision and contractors. The project Owner and Technical Supervision (Department of Public Works) is expected to further enhance the ability to manage projects so not throwing responsibility in managing government projects. consultant design and sonsultant supervision to be more careful in design till supervision during the implementation period so as to meet the cost, quality and time planned. Contractors are expected to further improve the performance of the building construction project.


Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1352
Author(s):  
Suhui Wang ◽  
Fei-Fei Ye

In order to solve the problem of environmental governance investment planning in the transportation industry, a cost prediction model is proposed under technological constraints, where the input output indictors emphasizes the flexibility of prediction and its characters are asymmetric, while the constructs of prediction model focuses on the standardization and its characters are symmetrical. The basic principle of the cost prediction model is based on an extended belief rule-based (EBRB) system to model the input-output relationship in investment planning, and a parameter learning model to improve the accuracy of the EBRB system. Additionally, the technological innovation factors are also embedded in the cost prediction model to investigate the influence of technology-related outcomes on investment planning. Finally, based on the data of environmental governance in China’s transportation industry from 2003 to 2016, the cost of transportation industry environmental management in China’s thirty provinces from 2017 to 2033 is predicted under the constraints of technological innovation. Results show that: (1) the accuracy of the proposed cost prediction model is higher than some existing cost prediction methods; (2) the predicted environmental governance costs have a significant regional difference; (3) the upgrading of technological innovation is conducive to saving the future environmental governance costs of the transportation industry in some provinces. In addition to the above results, the present study provides model supports and policy references for government decision makers in transportation industry-related environmental cost planning.


Author(s):  
Anthony Tochukwu Igwe ◽  
Dr. Abdulganiyu oke

Cost performance is the fundamental criteria for success of any project. Most projects face huge amount of cost variations in Nigeria construction industry. Its performance is based on the three major parameters which include, cost, time and quality. This research was carried out to analyze elemental cost variation in building construction projects in Abuja Nigeria. Secondary data was obtained for the study and analysed using ANOVA, correlation, and regression. The result shows that the most critical factors that contribute to cost variation include unstable economy, improper planning, inaccurate estimate and fraudulent practice. The study finally recommended the best way of a averting the problem which include stabilization of the economy by the government through monitoring of price, stability of cost of labor and building materials. Contractors should employ qualified and experience staff in order to be able to follow the different technical and managerial aspects of the project. The study has concluded that there was no significant difference amongst the variation in the costs of selected groups of building elements. This was based on analysis of variance results. This meant that notwithstanding the magnitude of changes to elemental costs, no single element could be isolated as being exceptional in terms of cost variations. It was concluded that in terms of degree of influence on change in initial contract sums, the Services elements was ranked 1st, based on an R2 value of 25.2%. Substructure had the least influence on changes in the initial contract sum (R2 value of 6.71%).


2021 ◽  
Vol 921 (1) ◽  
pp. 012073
Author(s):  
E Aprianti ◽  
S Hamzah ◽  
M A Abdurrahman

Abstract One of the fundamental problems faced by the province of South Sulawesi is the factor of accessibility, so the role of bridges is quite important. For this reason, the budget planning for standard bridge construction projects also needs to be efficient in terms of preparation and accurate in terms of budget. The Cost Significant Model is one of the total construction cost estimation models that relies more on the prices that have the most influence on the total project cost as the basis for estimation. In general, this study uses data from steel frame bridge construction projects in South Sulawesi Province to formulate a mathematical model with linear regression analysis so that it can be used in the process of estimating similar projects going forward. The Estimation Model which is formed from the regression analysis and the Cost Significant Model in this study, namely; Y = 3.884 (X7) + 0.989 (X8) - 65515.372. With; Y = Estimated Total Cost (Rp/m); X7 = Reinforcement Work Cost (Rp/m); X8 = Steel Frame Structure Work Cost (Rp/m). Where this model can explain 99.7% of the total project cost with a cost model factor of 1.038. The level of accuracy (percentage error estimate) of the estimation results of the Cost Significant Model in this study ranges from - 1.46% to +2.45%.


Author(s):  
Matiwos Tsegaye

Abstract The construction industry is one of the most important activities that contributes towards the economic growth of any nation. However, the sector has been experiencing problems of cost and time overruns, particularly the problems are significant for the lowest-bid awarded construction projects in the developing countries where inappropriate planning is reported to be one of the major causes. Thus, the paper aims at developing an integrated scheduling approach for construction projects during the planning phase from a project owner’s perspective. The proposed approach integrates cost estimation and schedule in light of practical activity precedence and mathematical cost optimization using different project commencement dates. The study has shown that cost and time optimization model could yield impractical results unless double precedence relations (start-to-start plus finish-to-finish) are imposed between some activities such as trench excavation and pipe laying. It has also demonstrated that the cost and time budgeted during the planning phase would substantially deviate from actual if the planned construction start date slips from the plan, particularly for short period projects. The proposed approach demonstrated in the paper can sufficiently allow planning engineers to develop a comprehensive construction schedule so that the cost and time overruns in the lowest-bid awarded construction projects can be reduced. The paper provides empirical insights into how a robust construction schedule is developed from an owner’s perspective. Cost-time optimization and risk analysis results obtained from manual computation might reduce the reasonable accuracy of the desired cost and schedule integration unless each activity is assigned its own calendar.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 1319-1323
Author(s):  
S. Arokia Punitha ◽  

The Education system is changing rapidly with all schools preferring online learning platforms to enhance the students learning experience. Majority of the educational institution continued their online classes immediately realising the situation. This study was undertaken to know the students perception about the online classes for during COVID -19 pandemic in Tiruchirapalli city. Primary and Secondary data collected from respondents will be divided into independent variables and dependent variables. These independent variables are conceptualized by using a set of 5-point Likert scale statements to measure the students perception about online classes. Both the variables are supported by students perception about online classes. The online classes became the new normal for most school and college students, the cost of data has been another digital obstacle to surmount even for those with access to smartphones and internet connectivity. The government must introduce policies or an ordinance ensuring universal access to the internet for students stemming from which more systemic support could be offered.


Author(s):  
Pradeep Kumar Tipaji ◽  
Venkat Allada ◽  
Rajiv Mishra

A cost model is an important tool for product design and material selection. An efficient and effective cost estimation tool is necessary for early design evaluations. In this paper, a cost estimation model is presented that estimates the production cost for metal inert gas (MIG) welded joints. This model determines the cost incurred in fabricating each joint with a detailed explanation of each cost component / driver. Each cost component has been closely analyzed and the major cost components have been included in the cost model. We used this cost model to predict the cost of the forty two different joints joined using MIG welding technique. The results predicted by the MIG welding cost model have been compared to that quoted by an expert welder. Initial results show that the cost model and the expert cost estimates follow a similar general trend. Further study is needed to refine the MIG cost model.


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