The Spatial Consequences of Bureaucratic Decisionmaking

1983 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 1489-1500
Author(s):  
J R Bohland ◽  
J Gist
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Grant Program ◽  
Basic Goal ◽  
High Distress ◽  
Type Of Behavior

The research tests the proposition that risk aversion is a basic goal of bureaucratic decisionmaking within the Urban Development Action Grant Program (UDAGP) and that this type of behavior influences the spatial distribution of UDAGP grants. The results demonstrate that risk aversion is evident and that it tends to divert funds away from those cities with high distress. Political accommodation is shown to be evident in cases where bureaucrats are faced with high-risk projects. This accommodation influences the spatial distribution of UDAGP funds.

scholarly journals Evolution of social learning when high expected payoffs are associated with high risk of failure

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (64) ◽  
pp. 1604-1615 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Arbilly ◽  
Uzi Motro ◽  
Marcus W. Feldman ◽  
Arnon Lotem
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Social Learning ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Individual Experience ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Risk Of Failure ◽  
Expected Payoffs ◽  
Maladaptive Behaviours ◽  
Optimal Behaviour

In an environment where the availability of resources sought by a forager varies greatly, individual foraging is likely to be associated with a high risk of failure. Foragers that learn where the best sources of food are located are likely to develop risk aversion, causing them to avoid the patches that are in fact the best; the result is sub-optimal behaviour. Yet, foragers living in a group may not only learn by themselves, but also by observing others. Using evolutionary agent-based computer simulations of a social foraging game, we show that in an environment where the most productive resources occur with the lowest probability, socially acquired information is strongly favoured over individual experience. While social learning is usually regarded as beneficial because it filters out maladaptive behaviours, the advantage of social learning in a risky environment stems from the fact that it allows risk aversion to be circumvented and the best food source to be revisited despite repeated failures. Our results demonstrate that the consequences of individual risk aversion may be better understood within a social context and suggest one possible explanation for the strong preference for social information over individual experience often observed in both humans and animals.

scholarly journals Spatial Distribution of Breast Cancer in Sudan 2010-2016

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marwa Maweya Abdelbagi Elbasheer ◽  
Ayah Galal Abdelrahman Alkhidir ◽  
Siham Mohammed Awad Mohammed ◽  
Areej Abuelgasim Hassan Abbas ◽  
Aisha Osman Mohamed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Histopathological Diagnosis ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Distribution Maps ◽  
Risk Areas

AbstractBackgroundBreast cancer is the most prevalent cancer among females worldwide including Sudan. The aim of this study was to determine the spatial distribution of breast cancer in Sudan.Materials and methodsA facility based cross-sectional study was implemented in eighteen histopathology laboratories distributed in the three localities of Khartoum State on a sample of 4630 Breast Cancer cases diagnosed during the period 2010-2016. A master database was developed through Epi Info™ 7.1.5.2 for computerizing the data collected: the facility name, type (public or private), and its geo- location (latitude and longitude). Personal data on patients were extracted from their respective medical records (name, age, marital status, ethnic group, State, locality, administrative unit, permanent address and phone number, histopathology diagnosis). The data was summarized through SPSS to generate frequency tables for estimating prevalence and the geographical information system (ArcGIS 10.3) was used to generate the epidemiological distribution maps. ArcGIS 10.3 spatial analysis features were used to develop risk maps based on the kriging method.ResultsBreast cancer prevalence was 3.9 cases per 100,000 female populations. Of the 4423 cases of breast cancer, invasive breast carcinoma of no special type (NST) was the most frequent (79.5%, 3517/4423) histopathological diagnosis. The spatial analysis indicated as high risk areas for breast cancer in Sudan the States of Nile River, Northern, Red Sea, White Nile, Northern and Southern Kordofan.ConclusionsThe attempt to develop a predictive map of breast cancer in Sudan revealed three levels of risk areas (risk, intermediate and high risk areas); regardless the risk level, appropriate preventive and curative health interventions with full support from decision makers are urgently needed.

Risk Preferences and Incentives for Evidence Acquisition and Disclosure

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 314-342
Author(s):  
Erin Giffin ◽  
Erik Lillethun
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Optimal Design ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Risk Preferences ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Good Decision ◽  
Legal Rules

Abstract Civil disputes feature parties with biased incentives acquiring evidence with costly effort. Evidence may then be revealed at trial or concealed to persuade a judge or jury. Using a persuasion game, we examine how a litigant’s risk preferences influence evidence acquisition incentives. We find that high risk aversion depresses equilibrium evidence acquisition. We then study the problem of designing legal rules to balance good decision making against the costs of acquisition. We characterize the optimal design, which differs from equilibrium decision rules. Notably, for very risk-averse litigants, the design is “over-incentivized” with stronger rewards and punishments than in equilibrium. We find similar results for various common legal rules, including admissibility of evidence and maximum awards. These results have implications for how rules could differentiate between high risk aversion types (e.g., individuals) and low risk aversion types (e.g., corporations) to improve evidence acquisition efficiency.

scholarly journals Identifying Vulnerable Populations in Subtropical Brisbane, Australia: A Guide for Heatwave Preparedness and Health Promotion

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret Loughnan ◽  
Nigel Tapper ◽  
Thu Phan
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Promotion ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Prevention Policy ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Heat Events

Building healthy societies is a key step towards climate resilient communities. Ill health is related to increased risk during heat events and is disproportionally distributed within and between communities. To understand the differences in the spatial distribution of climate related health risks and how this will change in the future we have undertaken a spatiotemporal analysis of heatwave risks in urban populations in Brisbane, Australia. The aim of this was to advise emergency managers and public health authorities of high-risk areas during extreme heat events (EHEs). The spatial distribution of heat related morbidity identified areas of high healthcare service demand during EHEs. An index of risk was developed based on social and environmental determinants of vulnerability. Regression analysis was used to determine the key drivers of heat related morbidity from the index. A weighted map of population vulnerability was produced which identified the high risk areas and provided key information to target public health interventions and heat stress prevention policy. The predicted changes in high risk populations such as the proportion of elderly people living in urban areas were also mapped to support longer term adaptation and develop health care infrastructure and health promotion strategies.

Spatial Distribution of Scorpion Sting in a High-Risk Area of Southern Iran

2016 ◽  
Vol 53 (5) ◽  
pp. 1198-1204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehran Shahi ◽  
Seyed Hamid Moosavy ◽  
Ahamd Ali Hanafi-Bojd ◽  
Shahrokh Navidpour ◽  
Shahram Zare ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Scorpion Sting ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
High Risk Area ◽  
Southern Iran

scholarly journals Urban Vitality Evaluation and Spatial Correlation Research: A Case Study from Shanghai, China

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1195
Author(s):  
Jiangang Shi ◽  
Wei Miao ◽  
Hongyun Si ◽  
Ting Liu
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Central Area ◽  
Spatial Distribution Characteristics ◽  
Primary Driver ◽  
Effective Decision ◽  
Development Evaluation ◽  
Effective Decision Making ◽  
The City

Urban vitality is the primary driver of urban development. However, assessing urban vitality has always been a challenge. This paper builds on the research framework of sustainable development evaluation and selects evaluation indicators from the three systems of urban operation: economy, society, and environment. The deviation maximization (DM) method is used to evaluate urban vitality. Shanghai is then used as a case study for evaluation, and the comprehensive index of urban vitality is calculated for the city from 2010 to 2019. The evaluation results indicate that the urban vitality of Shanghai experienced a significant upward trend over ten years (2010–2019), which shows that the urban competitiveness of Shanghai is constantly strengthening. Next, the study focuses on the administrative region of Shanghai, to calculate the regional vitality level of Shanghai from 2010 to 2019 and to explore its spatial distribution characteristics. Then, a spatial autocorrelation analysis is used to explore the mechanism that affects the spatial distribution of urban vitality. The results demonstrate that the urban vitality in Shanghai shows a significant positive correlation in space. Moreover, there is a “High–High” gathering area, which includes Huangpu, Xuhui, Hongkou, and Changning in central area of Shanghai. This research provides a theoretical reference to support effective decision-making with respect to high-quality urban development.

scholarly journals Spatial distribution of urban greenspace in response to urban development from a multi-scale perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 064031 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Wang ◽  
Weiqi Zhou ◽  
Jia Wang ◽  
Wenjuan Yu
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Urban Greenspace
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