East coast gas: resource potential at different gas price scenarios (Part 2: commercialisation of unconventional gas resources)

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 542
Author(s):  
Joe Collins ◽  
Ian Cockerill ◽  
Zain Rasheed
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Unconventional Gas ◽  
Market Experience ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
To Come ◽  
Unconventional Gas Development ◽  
Supply Costs

Rising gas prices in the eastern Australian gas market, as well as forecast supply shortages in years to come, are driving speculation about LNG import requirements for the market. There are significant similarities with the gas market experience in the USA in the early 2000s which led to the construction of many LNG import terminals, the parallel rise of unconventional gas production and the subsequent mothballing of the LNG import facilities at huge economic cost. A comprehensive east coast gas market study has been carried out based on the 2P reserves positions for domestic gas producers. This data has been paired with a range of gas demand forecasts to identify the probable supply gap on the east coast over the next 10 years. A market response to the high gas pricing in the form of new developments is already underway. In a separate paper (Part 1) all potential domestic sources of unconventional gas to fill that gap were analysed to determine likely gas supply rates, development schedules and breakeven supply costs for each of the major demand centres. This paper (Part 2) illustrates the required gas prices to drive unconventional gas development in Australia, the subsequent scale of new unconventional gas supplies to the forecast gaps in the market and describes how those developments can reverse the trend of rising prices over time.

A roadmap for community and investor satisfaction from unconventional gas development

2013 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry Goldstein ◽  
Anthony Hill ◽  
Michael Malavazos ◽  
Sandra Menpes ◽  
Alexandra Wickham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
State Government ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Unconventional Gas ◽  
Land Access ◽  
Environmentally Sustainable ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
World Class ◽  
To Come ◽  
Unconventional Gas Development ◽  
Sustainable Projects

If a fraction of the national potential to produce unconventional gas is realised, then Australia will benefit: security of domestic and export gas supplies for decades to come; supply-side competition for decades to come; improved balance of trade and transport fuel security as Australia's supplants imports with gas-based transport fuel; billions of dollars invested in environmentally sustainable projects; thousands of jobs; considerable royalties and tax for revenues public good; and, world-class intellectual property that can be converted into export services and equipment. Given these drivers, the SA State Government convened a Roundtable for Unconventional Gas Projects in October 2010. Participating in this roundtable are a total of 260 organisations plus individuals, including: peak representative bodies focused on economic, social, and natural environment outcomes; and, companies, universities, and key agencies from all state, NT, and commonwealth governments. This roundtable informed a Roadmap for Unconventional Gas Projects in South Australia that was published in December 2012. The objectives of this roadmap are to credibly inform industry strategies, government policies, and public perceptions. In particular, this roadmap explains how people and enterprises potentially affected by unconventional gas operations are given information and time to draw considered views so their rights to object in part or full to activity—and location-specific land access—are supported. This will facilitate the efficient, profitable, and welcomed deployment of capital, technologies, and infrastructure for the commercialisation of unconventional gas. This extended abstract details the findings of this roadmap.

Unconventional gas: local supply, global implications

2011 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 679
Author(s):  
Craig McMahon
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Coal Bed ◽  
Unconventional Gas ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The North ◽  
Local Supply ◽  
Sharp Growth ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
The Impact

The sharp growth in unconventional gas production in North America has turned the gas market on its head. Unconventional gas (coal bed methane, tight gas and shale gas) is present in large volumes throughout the world—it offers the potential to continue to reshape global gas dynamics. Many expect the North America experience of sharp unconventional gas growth to be repeated elsewhere and are forecasting the perpetuation of a global gas surplus. Is this likely? We consider the impact of its development, identify some of the issues that will constrain its growth and address some of the implications for upstream suppliers, resource holders, buyers and policy makers. No post-Conference paper or slides are available for this presentation.

Jemena's perspective on Australian gas market dynamics: a vision of a fiercely competitive market facilitated by an interconnected supply chain

2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 462
Author(s):  
David Green ◽  
Thomas Allen
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Growth Strategy ◽  
Valuable Insight ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
The Right ◽  
Gas Price

As pipeliners, we take a long-term view of the transformative opportunities facing the Australian gas industry. We believe a market-driven approach will overcome the current challenges around gas price volatility and supply constraints by further developing the missing links that will enable genuine connectedness, greater flexibility and operating synergies across a national gas transportation grid – one that can deliver gas where it is needed most and at the right price. Looking at mature gas trading environments like the USA provides some aspirational direction in terms of the fluidity of the gas trading environment, where pricing is more dynamic. However, the past and present development opportunities within our own backyard also provide valuable insight. Building the Eastern Gas Pipeline transformed the east coast gas market by introducing a competitive alternative for gas transportation into Sydney and upstream competition between basins. A similar market-led opportunity exists today to build infrastructure connecting Northern Territory gas producers to east coast markets – introducing a competitive alternative for gas transportation and upstream competition between the Beetaloo/McArthur basins and the Surat/Bowen basins. Winning the right to build the Northern Gas Pipeline was an important first step in Jemena realising this vision. Current regulatory discussions would not be relevant if the industry can shape its own market. Jemena’s northern Australia growth strategy could be the catalyst to resolving these challenges and avoiding further gas constraints or Australian Competition and Consumer Commission interventions seeking to address theoretical issues, rather than solving actual market challenges.

Unconventional Gas Development in the USA: Exploring the Risk Perception Issues

Risk Analysis ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 35 (10) ◽  
pp. 1770-1788 ◽  
Author(s):  
John D. Graham ◽  
John A. Rupp ◽  
Olga Schenk
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Unconventional Gas ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Unconventional Gas Development

Australia's unconventional future: where next?

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 654
Author(s):  
Christopher Meredith
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Future Supply ◽  
Rapid Transition ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Gas Supply

Eastern Australia is now reliant on coal-seam gas (CSG) for its domestic gas supply; in 2018, it accounted for two-thirds of total eastern coast gas production. Australia has seen a rapid transition from relying on ‘conventional’ resources to relying on ‘unconventional’ gas supply. As legacy conventional supply sources mature and decline, exploration has been insufficient to keep up with market demand. This has created the opportunity for Australia’s vast CSG resources to fill the gap. But the development of CSG has been neither easy nor straightforward. And the costly requirement to drill hundreds, if not thousands, of wells in every single development has driven up the cost of supply. Most CSG reserves will be produced for the Pacific Basin LNG market via the three LNG projects on the east coast of Queensland. However, it is the resources beyond these LNG projects that will need to be developed, so as to ensure future supply to the east coast gas market. It is these other resources, both CSG and shale, that we evaluated to gain a picture of future gas supplies and costs. Our indicative economics showed that alternative CSG resources and Beetaloo shale both have high well-head break-even costs. In addition, the infrastructure required to get them to market will be expensive. The high costs, coupled with the demand from the LNG plants of Gladstone leads us to conclude that eastern-coast gas prices are likely to remain closely linked to global LNG prices for the foreseeable future.

scholarly journals One approach to the study of gas pricing based on gas supply systems modelling (the case of Northeast Asia)

2019 ◽  
Vol 114 ◽  
pp. 02004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei P. Popov ◽  
Darya V. Maksakova
Keyword(s):  
Technological Development ◽  
Northeast Asia ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Supply System ◽  
Unconventional Gas ◽  
Dual Analysis ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Northeast Asian ◽  
Supply Systems ◽  
Gas Supply

The article deals with the approach to gas pricing analysis based on the use of optimization models of gas supply systems. The object of the study is the Northeast Asian gas market. The model of the excessive gas supply system in Northeast Asia is described. The primal problem of the model is to minimize the sum of gas production and transportation costs under the infrastructure constraints. The solutions to the primal problem are the volumes of gas produced in each production point and transported via each route. The solutions to the dual problem (dual variables or shadow prices) are node prices in the points of gas supply system, the producers’ rent and the transporters’ rent. It is highlighted that the dual analysis plays an important role. It allows evaluating price relations between the points of gas supply system, identifying export routs characterized by the highest rent, evaluating the competitiveness of suppliers in the different scenarios of technological development, energy policy and market environment. The analytical capacities of the dual analysis are illustrated by the study of the impact of “unconventional” gas development in the importing countries on the Northeast Asian gas market environment. When the costs of unconventional gas production rise, gas trade patterns change, more competitive players enter the market, and gas prices in all consumption points as well as producers’ rents increase. It is concluded that if importers seek to lower import dependency while keeping the same price level, they have to lower the costs of unconventional gas production by technological development and/or to subsidize the industry to make it more competitive.

2015 PESA production and development review

2016 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 515
Author(s):  
Ross Evans ◽  
David Close ◽  
Brenton Richards ◽  
Rachael Ilett
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Start Up ◽  
Cost Reductions ◽  
Primary Driver ◽  
Effective Cost ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Unconventional Gas Development ◽  
Market Pressure

Low oil prices through 2015 challenged oil and gas operators to cut costs and minimise expenditure to survive the long cold winter of low pricing. Oil production decreased more than 10%—relative to 2014—to 128 mmboe for 2015. In 2015, natural gas production of 2,611 PJ was relatively consistent with 2014 production, with the exception of the Bowen and Surat basins, where production more than doubled to over 630 PJ. The primary driver for the increased Bowen and Surat basin output was the first full year of operation of QCLNG and, to a lesser extent, the startup of GLNG in the fourth quarter of 2015. The start-up of two major LNG operations in Queensland, followed by a third (APLNG) within the first weeks of 2016, is a transformational event for the eastern Australian gas market. As each of the projects has commenced exports during an extremely long—and therefore low-price—LNG market, there is intense market pressure on these projects to improve profitability through efficiency improvements and cost reductions. In contrast to Australia’s other LNG exporters, which are all fed by offshore conventional fields with relatively few wells, the Queensland projects have the opportunity to benefit from constant improvements to upstream operations as they continue to drill hundreds of wells to sustain the LNG operations. North American operators have continuously improved during the past decade of unconventional gas development and this provides a proof of concept that is encouraging for Australia’s aspirants. Effective cost reductions have already been announced by operators in Queensland; maintaining these reductions as the market improves will be critical to the success of the Queensland CSG to LNG projects, and expanding efficient and cost-effective operations to other onshore basins provides an opportunity for the Australian industry-at-large.

East coast gas: resource potential at different gas price scenarios (Part 1: quantification of unconventional gas resource potential)

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 860
Author(s):  
Ian Cockerill ◽  
Joe Collins ◽  
Zain Rasheed
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Sweet Spot ◽  
Unconventional Gas ◽  
Resource Potential ◽  
Entire Area ◽  
Type Curves ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Potential Resource ◽  
Spot Mapping

A qualitative ranking of the remaining gas potential of Australian east coast basins was undertaken using a spatial analysis methodology of play fairway sweet-spot mapping. Play components considered important for the presence and recovery of unconventional gas were mapped across the plays of interest in Australian east coast basins. Modelled horizontal well type curves and development plans from North American analogues for unconventional gas production were used to quantify the sweet-spot mapping using a methodology we developed called common recovery segment mapping. A range of potential resource numbers were calculated for each play, leading to a quantification of the potential resource across the entire area of interest. Part 2 of this paper will show how these undeveloped unconventional gas resources may ultimately contribute to the east coast Australia energy mix.

Unconventional Gas Development 2.0

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Don C Smith
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Environmental Footprint ◽  
Environmental Groups ◽  
Unconventional Gas ◽  
Carbon Reduction ◽  
Unconventional Gas Development

Unconventional development has revolutionized natural gas production, an advance that could play a major role in reducing dangerous greenhouse gas emissions implicated in global climate change. However, the ‘net carbon reduction benefits’ associated with natural gas (ie fuel switching from coal to natural gas for electricity generation) will dissipate if the environmental footprint of unconventional development is not addressed. New and developing technologies can help reduce the environmental footprint. For example, new technologies to identify methane leaks in natural gas systems can ensure that the carbon benefit is secured. And there are other challenges related to reducing the environmental footprint including improved water management and preventing earthquakes linked to unconventional gas development. One US state, Colorado, has proven that workable efforts can successfully be undertaken to require deployment of new technology to reduce methane emissions—the result of a first-in-the US collaboration involving political leaders, industry, environmental groups, and regulators.

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