Dynamics of moisture content in spruce–feather moss and spruce–Sphagnum organic layers during an extreme fire season and implications for future depths of burn in Clay Belt black spruce forests

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélie Terrier ◽  
William J. de Groot ◽  
Martin P. Girardin ◽  
Yves Bergeron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Mixed Model ◽  
Linear Mixed Model ◽  
Black Spruce ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Disturbance ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Organic Layer ◽  
Feather Moss

High moisture levels and low frequency of wildfires have contributed to the accumulation of the organic layer in open black spruce (Picea mariana)–Sphagnum dominated stands of eastern boreal North America. The anticipated increase in drought frequency with climate change could lead to moisture losses and a transfer of the stored carbon back into the atmosphere due to increased fire disturbance and decomposition. Here we studied the dynamics of soil moisture content and weather conditions in spruce–feather moss and spruce–Sphagnum dominated stands of the boreal Clay Belt of eastern Canada during particularly dry conditions. A linear mixed model was developed to predict the moisture content of the organic material according to weather, depth and site conditions. This model was then used to calculate potential depth of burn and applied to climate model projections to determine the sensitivity of depth of burn to future fire hazards. Our results suggest that depth of burn varies only slightly in response to changes in weather conditions in spruce–Sphagnum stands. The reverse holds true in spruce–feather moss stands. In conclusion, our results suggest that spruce–Sphagnum stands in the boreal Clay Belt may be resistant to an increase in the depth of burn risk under climate change.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Effects of Projected Climate Change on Forest Fuel Moisture Content

2014 ◽  
Vol 37 ◽  
pp. 65-69
Author(s):  
Kellen Nelson ◽  
Daniel Tinker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Stand Structure ◽  
Canopy Cover ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Mature Forest ◽  
Forest Fuel ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

Understanding how live and dead forest fuel moisture content (FMC) varies with seasonal weather and stand structure will improve researchers’ and forest managers’ ability to predict the cumulative effects of weather on fuel drying during the fire season and help identify acute conditions that foster wildfire ignition and high rates of fire spread. No studies have investigated the efficacy of predicting FMC using mechanistic water budget models at daily time scales through the fire season nor have they investigated how FMC may vary across space. This study addresses these gaps by (1) validating a novel mechanistic live FMC model and (2) applying this model with an existing dead FMC model at three forest sites using five climate change scenarios to characterize how FMC changes through time and across space. Sites include post-fire 24-year old forest, mature forest with high canopy cover, and mature forest affected by the mountain pine beetle with moderate canopy cover. Climate scenarios include central tendency, warm/dry, warm/wet, hot/dry, and hot/wet.

Potential changes in monthly fire risk in the eastern Canadian boreal forest under future climate change

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (12) ◽  
pp. 2369-2380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Héloïse Le Goff ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
Yves Bergeron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fire Activity

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973–2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961–2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961–2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975–2005, 2030–2060, and 2070–2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (–20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management.

scholarly journals Determination of the Environmental Factors that Affect the Growth and Survival of Greek Fir Seedlings

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 100
Author(s):  
Vassilis Detsis ◽  
Georgios Efthimiou ◽  
Olga Theodoropoulou ◽  
Stavroula Siorokou
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Mixed Model ◽  
Linear Mixed Model ◽  
Clay Content ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Apical Growth ◽  
Growth And Survival ◽  
Initial Height ◽  
Soil Clay ◽  
Soil Clay Content

Forests in the montane-Mediterranean zone have only recently began to be affected by wildfires, therefore the knowledge necessary for restoration projects is missing. The aim of the study was to assess the effects of factors related to seedling attributes, weather conditions and site suitability on seedling performance. The characterisation of sites was based on bedrock and soil clay content as well as pre-fire vegetation. Apical growth and survival of seedlings was monitored for four years in Parnitha National Park. The parameters of a linear mixed model were estimated using annual apical growth of seedlings surviving in the end of the study as the dependent variable and type of site, rainfall, initial seedling height and age as explanatory ones. A quantile regression model using all the data available was estimated for each year of study, taking into account only initial height and site type as well as a logistic regression model of survival. The findings indicate that the growth of Greek fir seedlings depends on May rainfall mediated by soil clay content, which in turn depends on bedrock, which is consistent with the “inverse texture hypothesis”. Sites with low soil clay content were always more beneficial for survival, which was stronger affected by summer–autumn rainfall. In both contexts, drought stress due to soil clay content fades with increasing age. Sites that were not fir dominated prior to fire proved unsuitable also for planting fir seedlings. A minor part of the observed variability could be associated with the initial height of seedlings, especially for seedlings showing high rates of apical growth.

scholarly journals Port Adaptation and Efficiency: An Empirical Study of Ghanaian Ports

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 36
Author(s):  
Ruhaimatu Abudu ◽  
Shiyuan Zheng ◽  
Emmanuel Anu Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mixed Model ◽  
Linear Mixed Model ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Policy Recommendation ◽  
Substantial Cost ◽  
The Past ◽  
Port Efficiency ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
One Way Anova

The port being an economical leg of countries development and thereby affected by climate change creates a substantial cost to the various stakeholders since is described as a “business” hub. It is, therefore, essential that ports across the globe attribute much importance to climate adaptation and its relation to port efficiency, especially for the coming years. The need to establish the effect these variables have on each other has become paramount. For this study, an empirical analysis of Ghanaian ports is being reviewed for the past and future annual efficiencies and adaptation scores. The annual efficiencies of both ports are calculated using various variables as inputs and outputs with the DEA Frontier software to calculate the DEA-CCR of the study ports. To assess the adaptation scores of each port, questionnaires and interviews were conducted based on four (4) major factors that affect port adaptation. This research also employs the linear mixed model and one-way ANOVA to assess the means of the data groups obtained for 2009-2020 & 2021-2040 respectively. This research aimed to analyse the significant relationship between port adaptation and efficiency for past and future years while highlighting the adaptative strategies of Ghanaian ports. The concluding chapters of this research represent the data analysis, policy recommendation for the stakeholders of Ghanaian ports, and also recommendations that are deemed useful for further research.

scholarly journals Effects of Temperature and Precipitation on Breeding Migrations of Amphibian Species in Southeastern Norway

Scientifica ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Børre K. Dervo ◽  
Kim Magnus Bærum ◽  
Jostein Skurdal ◽  
Jon Museth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mixed Model ◽  
Linear Mixed Model ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
General Context ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Migration Phenology ◽  
Effects Of Temperature ◽  
Southern Norway

To reveal the effects of climate, a generalized linear mixed model was used to explore the variation in onset of spawning migration for the two newt speciesT. cristatusandL. vulgarisin southern Norway. Amphibians are highly influenced by the physical environment, such as temperature and rainfall. The first migrating newts were observed subsequently to the three first consecutive days with mean temperature close to or above 4°C. Further, migration ofL. vulgariswas facilitated at lower temperatures compared toT. cristatus, but the migration was dependent on higher precipitation levels. Northern populations ofT. cristatusandL. vulgarismay already benefit from a warmer climate due to increased recruitment and juvenile survival. However, an offset in the migration phenology due to climate change might further alter the recruitment and survival rates with either positive or negative outcome. Thus, variations in migration phenology for newts due to climate change may have implications for management and protection status in many systems. In a general context, we should increase emphasis on protecting newts and support increased populations and distribution.

scholarly journals Climatic drivers of genotype–environment interactions in lodgepole pine based on multi-environment trial data and a factor analytic model of additive covariance

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (7) ◽  
pp. 835-854 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas K. Ukrainetz ◽  
Alvin D. Yanchuk ◽  
Shawn D. Mansfield
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mixed Model ◽  
Linear Mixed Model ◽  
Lodgepole Pine ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Mixed Model Analysis ◽  
Factor Analytic Model ◽  
Factor Analytic ◽  
Breeding Groups

The optimum deployment of select material from tree breeding programs is affected by the presence of genotype–environment interactions (G × E) and further complicated by future climate change. Here, we analyzed tree height data from 28 progeny test sites in a multi-environment trial (MET) dataset for two testing cycles of the lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Douglas ex Loudon) breeding program in British Columbia to characterize one approach to investigating the climatic variables influencing G × E and the potential impacts of climate change. Linear mixed model analysis was conducted using an approximate reduced animal model with a factor analytic (FA) variance model to estimate the complex additive (co)variance structure. Test sites were grouped according to patterns of G × E, and climate modelling was employed to project historical and future deployment zones for each group. Based on these findings, it appears that breeding groups with historically wide deployment zones from northern environments will become less important as the climate warms, and therefore investment should be directed toward southern breeding groups, which will be useful across a very wide geographic range in the near to mid-term future.

scholarly journals What Do the Australian Black Summer Fires Signify for the Global Fire Crisis?

Fire ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 97
Author(s):  
Rachael H. Nolan ◽  
David M. J. S. Bowman ◽  
Hamish Clarke ◽  
Katharine Haynes ◽  
Mark K. J. Ooi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Social Systems ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Lateral Approach ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Prescribed Burns ◽  
Socially Disadvantaged

The 2019–20 Australian fire season was heralded as emblematic of the catastrophic harm wrought by climate change. Similarly extreme wildfire seasons have occurred across the globe in recent years. Here, we apply a pyrogeographic lens to the recent Australian fires to examine the range of causes, impacts and responses. We find that the extensive area burnt was due to extreme climatic circumstances. However, antecedent hazard reduction burns (prescribed burns with the aim of reducing fuel loads) were effective in reducing fire severity and house loss, but their effectiveness declined under extreme weather conditions. Impacts were disproportionately borne by socially disadvantaged regional communities. Urban populations were also impacted through prolonged smoke exposure. The fires produced large carbon emissions, burnt fire-sensitive ecosystems and exposed large areas to the risk of biodiversity decline by being too frequently burnt in the future. We argue that the rate of change in fire risk delivered by climate change is outstripping the capacity of our ecological and social systems to adapt. A multi-lateral approach is required to mitigate future fire risk, with an emphasis on reducing the vulnerability of people through a reinvigoration of community-level capacity for targeted actions to complement mainstream fire management capacity.

scholarly journals Increasing fire and the decline of fire adapted black spruce in the boreal forest

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (45) ◽  
pp. e2024872118
Author(s):  
Jennifer L. Baltzer ◽  
Nicola J. Day ◽  
Xanthe J. Walker ◽  
David Greene ◽  
Michelle C. Mack ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Black Spruce ◽  
Wildlife Habitat ◽  
Ecosystem Functions ◽  
Organic Layer ◽  
Complete Combustion ◽  
Postfire Regeneration ◽  
Soil Organic Layer ◽  
Compositional Changes

Intensifying wildfire activity and climate change can drive rapid forest compositional shifts. In boreal North America, black spruce shapes forest flammability and depends on fire for regeneration. This relationship has helped black spruce maintain its dominance through much of the Holocene. However, with climate change and more frequent and severe fires, shifts away from black spruce dominance to broadleaf or pine species are emerging, with implications for ecosystem functions including carbon sequestration, water and energy fluxes, and wildlife habitat. Here, we predict that such reductions in black spruce after fire may already be widespread given current trends in climate and fire. To test this, we synthesize data from 1,538 field sites across boreal North America to evaluate compositional changes in tree species following 58 recent fires (1989 to 2014). While black spruce was resilient following most fires (62%), loss of resilience was common, and spruce regeneration failed completely in 18% of 1,140 black spruce sites. In contrast, postfire regeneration never failed in forests dominated by jack pine, which also possesses an aerial seed bank, or broad-leaved trees. More complete combustion of the soil organic layer, which often occurs in better-drained landscape positions and in dryer duff, promoted compositional changes throughout boreal North America. Forests in western North America, however, were more vulnerable to change due to greater long-term climate moisture deficits. While we find considerable remaining resilience in black spruce forests, predicted increases in climate moisture deficits and fire activity will erode this resilience, pushing the system toward a tipping point that has not been crossed in several thousand years.

scholarly journals Smoke Patterns around Prescribed Fires in Australian Eucalypt Forests, as Measured by Low-Cost Particulate Monitors

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1389
Author(s):  
Owen Francis Price ◽  
Hugh Forehead
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Mixed Model ◽  
Linear Mixed Model ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Prescribed Burns ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Generalised Linear Mixed Model

Prescribed burns produce smoke pollution, but little is known about the spatial and temporal pattern because smoke plumes are usually small and poorly captured by State air-quality networks. Here, we sampled smoke around 18 forested prescribed burns in the Sydney region of eastern Australia using up to 11 Nova SDS011 particulate sensors and developed a Generalised Linear Mixed Model to predict hourly PM2.5 concentrations as a function of distance, fire size and weather conditions. During the day of the burn, PM2.5 tended to show hourly exceedances (indicating poor air quality) up to ~2 km from the fire but only in the downwind direction. In the evening, this zone expanded to up to 5 km and included upwind areas. PM2.5 concentrations were higher in still, cool weather and with an unstable atmosphere. PM2.5 concentrations were also higher in larger fires. The statistical model confirmed these results, identifying the effects of distance, period of the day, wind angle, fire size, temperature and C-Haines (atmospheric instability). The model correctly identified 78% of hourly exceedance and 72% of non-exceedance values in retained test data. Applying the statistical model predicts that prescribed burns of 1000 ha can be expected to cause air quality exceedances over an area of ~3500 ha. Cool weather that reduces the risk of fire escape, has the highest potential for polluting nearby communities, and fires that burn into the night are particularly bad.

Long-term recovery of soil carbon stocks and permafrost depth lags recovery of organic layer thickness following fire in black spruce forests of the Copper River Basin, Alaska

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J Sousa ◽  
Nicolas A Jelinski ◽  
Marcella Anna Windmuller-Campione ◽  
Andrea K Williams ◽  
Edward GreyBear ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Layer Thickness ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Black Spruce ◽  
Lacustrine Sediments ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Fire Disturbance ◽  
Organic Layer ◽  
Soc Stocks

This study investigated differences in forest structure, organic layer thickness, soil organic carbon, and permafrost depth between late successional (LS) and post fire (PF, 90 to 120 years since burn) plots under black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) on fine-textured, poorly drained lacustrine sediments in the Copper River Basin, Alaska. We found that although live stem and seedling density and organic layer thickness (OLT) was not significantly different between PF and LS plots (28 ± 7 cm and 31 ± 10 cm, respectively), soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks (30 ± 10 kg m-2 and 46 ± 12 kg m-2, respectively), and permafrost depth (90 ± 28 cm and 56 ± 12 cm, respectively) remain significantly different. OLT was linearly related to 1 m SOC stocks for LS plots but not for PF plots, and LS plots had a greater proportion of highly decomposed (humic) material in the organic layer. Soil properties on PF plots appear to be on a trajectory of recovery towards LS plots with respect to SOC stocks, permafrost depth, and organic layer composition, but remain different despite nearly 100 years since fire disturbance and therefore potentially sensitive to changes in future fire frequency or climate.

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