Does variable probability of detection compromise the use of indices in aerial surveys of medium-sized mammals?

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 245 ◽  
Author(s):  
John P. Tracey ◽  
Peter J. S. Fleming ◽  
Gavin J. Melville
Keyword(s):  
Detection Probability ◽  
Sampling Period ◽  
Aerial Survey ◽  
Species Group ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Aerial Surveys ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Methods ◽  
Wildlife Populations

Although aerial surveys are an effective and commonly used method of monitoring wildlife populations, variable detection probability may result in unreliable indices or biased estimates of absolute abundance. Detection probability can vary between sites, sampling periods, species, group sizes, vegetation types and observers. These variables were examined in helicopter surveys of a suite of medium-sized mammals in a hilly environment in central eastern New South Wales. Maximum-likelihood methods were used to investigate the effects of these variables on detection probability, which was derived using the double-count technique. Significant differences were evident between species in the overall analysis, and group size, vegetation, observer pair and sampling period for various individual species when analysed separately. The implications for monitoring wildlife populations between sites and across time are discussed. This paper emphasises that aerial survey indices may be effective in detecting large differences in population size but can be improved by quantifying detection probabilities for a range of variables.

Some human, aircraft and animal factors affecting aerial surveys: how to enumerate animals from the air

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter J. S. Fleming ◽  
John P. Tracey
Keyword(s):  
Visual Acuity ◽  
New South ◽  
Human Memory ◽  
Aerial Survey ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Counting Error ◽  
Aerial Surveys ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Survey Estimates ◽  
Aerial Platforms

Aerial surveys of wildlife involve a noisy platform carrying one or more observers moving over animals in order to quantify their abundance. This simple-sounding system encapsulates limits to human visual acuity and human concentration, visual attention, salience of target objects within the viewed scene, characteristics of survey platforms and facets of animal behaviours that affect the detection of animals by the airborne observers. These facets are too often ignored in aerial surveys, yet are inherent sources of counting error. Here we briefly review factors limiting the ability of observers to detect animals from aerial platforms in a range of sites, including characteristics of the aircraft, observers and target animals. Some of the previously uninvestigated limitations identified in the review were studied in central and western New South Wales, showing that inaccuracies of human memory and enumeration processes are sources of bias in aerial survey estimates. Standard protocols that minimise or account for the reviewed factors in aerial surveys of wildlife are recommended.

scholarly journals Horizontal or vertical? Camera trap orientations and recording modes for detecting potoroos, bandicoots and pademelons

2014 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brendan D. Taylor ◽  
Ross L. Goldingay ◽  
John M. Lindsay
Keyword(s):  
Detection Probability ◽  
New South ◽  
Population Monitoring ◽  
Camera Trap ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Camera Traps ◽  
North East ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
The Stability

Camera traps can detect rare and cryptic species, and may enable description of the stability of populations of threatened species. We investigated the relative performance of cameras oriented horizontally or vertically, and recording mode (still and video) to detect the vulnerable long-nosed potoroo (Potorous tridactylus) as a precursor to population monitoring. We established camera traps for periods of 13–21 days across 21 sites in Richmond Range National Park in north-east New South Wales. Each camera trap set consisted of three KeepGuard KG680V cameras directed at a bait container – one horizontal and one vertical camera in still mode and one horizontal camera in video mode. Potoroos and bandicoots (Perameles nasuta and Isoodon macrourus) were detected at 14 sites and pademelons (Thylogale stigmatica and T. thetis) were detected at 19 sites. We used program Presence to compare detection probabilities for each camera category. The detection probability for all three taxa groups was lowest for the vertical still and similar for the horizontal cameras. The detection probability (horizontal still) was highest for the potoroos (0.43) compared with the bandicoots (0.16) and pademelons (0.25). We estimate that the horizontal stills camera could achieve a 95% probability of detection of a potoroo within 6 days compared with 8 days using a vertical stills camera. This suggests that horizontal cameras in still mode have great potential for monitoring the dynamics of this potoroo population.

Correcting wildlife counts using detection probabilities

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary C. White
Keyword(s):  
Detection Probability ◽  
Distance Sampling ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Release Studies ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Minimum Number ◽  
Capture And Release ◽  
Wildlife Populations

One of the most pervasive uses of indices of wildlife populations is uncorrected counts of animals. Two examples are the minimum number known alive from capture and release studies, and aerial surveys where the detection probability is not estimated from a sightability model, marked animals, or distance sampling. Both the mark–recapture and distance-sampling estimators are techniques to estimate the probability of detection of an individual animal (or cluster of animals), which is then used to correct a count of animals. However, often the number of animals in a survey is inadequate to compute an estimate of the detection probability and hence correct the count. Modern methods allow sophisticated modelling to estimate the detection probability, including incorporating covariates to provide additional information about the detection probability. Examples from both distance and mark–recapture sampling are presented to demonstrate the approach.

Accuracy of some aerial survey estimators: contrasts with known numbers

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 377 ◽  
Author(s):  
John P. Tracey ◽  
Peter J. S. Fleming ◽  
Gavin J. Melville
Keyword(s):  
Detection Probability ◽  
Aerial Survey ◽  
Capra Hircus ◽  
True Density ◽  
Density Estimates ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Capture Recapture ◽  
Wildlife Populations ◽  
Helicopter Survey ◽  
Feral Goat

Density estimates are seldom examined against actual population size, hence the ability of estimators to correct for bias is unknown. Studies that compare techniques are difficult to interpret because of the uncertainty of adherence to their respective assumptions. Factors influencing detection probability, estimators that correct for bias, the validity of their assumptions and how these relate to true density are important considerations for selecting suitable methods. Here we contrasted five estimates of feral goat (Capra hircus) densities obtained from aerial surveys (strip counts, Petersen, stratified Petersen, Chao, Alho) against known densities derived from total counts. After correcting for recounting, the Alho and stratified Petersen estimators applied to helicopter surveys were the most accurate (bias = 0.08 and –0.09 respectively), which suggests that estimates were improved by correcting individual observations according to the characteristics of each observation. An approach using modified Horvitz–Thompson equations for unequal-sized units is described and is recommended to allow for this. Both the Chao (bias = 0.35) and Petersen (bias = 0.22) estimators were positively biased, which is likely to be a consequence of averaging detection probability across all observations. Helicopter survey using capture–recapture with multiple observers is recommended for estimating the density of wildlife populations. However, adjustment for the factors that influence detection probability is required.

scholarly journals Population estimates of Antillean manatees in Puerto Rico: an analytical framework for aerial surveys using multi-pass removal sampling

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (4) ◽  
pp. 1340-1349
Author(s):  
Jaime A Collazo ◽  
Matthew J Krachey ◽  
Kenneth H Pollock ◽  
Francisco J Pérez-Aguilo ◽  
Jan P Zegarra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Detection Probability ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Population Estimates ◽  
High Concentration ◽  
Imperfect Detection ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Aerial Surveys ◽  
Population Size Estimates

AbstractEffective management of the threatened Antillean manatee (Trichechus manatus manatus) in Puerto Rico requires reliable estimates of population size. Estimates are needed to assess population responses to management actions, and whether recovery objectives have been met. Aerial surveys have been conducted since 1976, but none adjusted for imperfect detection. We summarize surveys since 1976, report on current distribution, and provide population estimates after accounting for apparent detection probability for surveys between June 2010 and March 2014. Estimates in areas of high concentration (hotspots) averaged 317 ± 101, three times higher than unadjusted counts (104 ± 0.56). Adjusted estimates in three areas outside hotspots also differed markedly from counts (75 ± 9.89 versus 19.5 ± 3.5). Average minimum island-wide estimate was 386 ± 89, similar to the maximum estimate of 360 suggested in 2005, but fewer than the 700 recently suggested by the Puerto Rico Manatee Conservation Center. Manatees were more widespread than previously understood. Improving estimates, locally or island-wide, will require stratifying the island differently and greater knowledge about factors affecting detection probability. Sharing our protocol with partners in nearby islands (e.g., Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola), whose populations share genetic make-up, would contribute to enhanced regional conservation through better population estimates and tracking range expansion.El manejo efectivo del manatí antillano amenazado en Puerto Rico requiere estimados de tamaños de poblaciónes confiables. Dichas estimaciones poblacionales son necesarias para evaluar las respuestas a las acciones de manejo, y para determinar si los objetivos de recuperación han sido alcanzados. Se han realizado censos aéreos desde 1976, pero ninguno de ellos han sido ajustados para detecciones imperfectas. Aquí resumimos los censos desde 1976, actualizamos la distribución, y reportamos los primeros estimados poblacionales ajustados para la probabilidad de detección aparente en los censos de Junio 2010 a Marzo 2014. Las estimaciones poblacionales en áreas de mayor concentración del manatí promedió 317 ± 103, tres veces más abundante que los conteos sin ajuste (104 ± 0.56). Las estimaciones poblacionales en tres áreas fuera de las áreas de mayor concentración del manatí también fueron marcadamente diferentes (75 ± 9.89 vs 19.5 ± 3.5). El estimado mínimo poblacional en la isla entera fue de 386 ± 89, similar al estimado máximo de 360 sugerido en el año 2005, pero menor a los 700 sugeridos recientemente por el Centro de Conservación de Manatíes de Puerto Rico. Documentamos que el manatí tiene una distribución más amplia de lo que se sabía con anterioridad. El mejoramiento de los estimados poblacionales locales o a nivel de isla requerirá que se estratifique a la isla en forma diferente y que se investiguen los factores que influencian a la probabilidad de detección. Compartir protocolos como este con colaboradores de islas vecinas (por. ej., Cuba, Jamaica, Española), cuyas poblaciones de manatíes comparten material genético, contribuiría a la conservación regional mediante mejores estimaciones poblacionales y monitoreo de la expansión de su ámbito doméstico.

scholarly journals Analysis of Low Probability of Detection Capability for Chaotic Standard Map-Based FH-OFDMA System

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 2198
Author(s):  
Junwoo Jung ◽  
Jaesung Lim ◽  
Sungyeol Park ◽  
Haengik Kang ◽  
Seungbok Kwon
Keyword(s):  
Detection Probability ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Lower Probability ◽  
Symbol Sequence ◽  
Ofdma System ◽  
Standard Map ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Transmitted Symbol ◽  
Basic Symbol

A frequency hopping orthogonal frequency division multiple access (FH-OFDMA) can provide low probability of detection (LPD) and anti-jamming capabilities to users against adversary detectors. To obtain an extreme LPD capability that cannot be provided by the basic symbol-by-symbol (SBS)-based FH pattern, we proposed two FH patterns, namely chaotic standard map (CSM) and cat map for FH-OFDMA systems. In our previous work, through analysis of complexity to regenerate the transmitted symbol sequence, at the point of adversary detectors, we found that the CSM had a lower probability of intercept than the cat map and SBS. It is possible when a detector already knows symbol and frame structures, and the detector has been synchronized to the FH-OFDMA system. Unlike the previous work, here, we analyze whether the CSM provides greater LPD capability than the cat map and SBS by detection probability using spectrum sensing technique. We analyze the detection probability of the CSM and provide detection probabilities of the cat map and SBS compared to the CSM. Based on our analysis of the detection probability and numerical results, it is evident that the CSM provides greater LPD capability than both the cat map and SBS-based FH-OFDMA systems.

An Aerial Survey of 3 Game Species of Waterfowl (Family Anatidae) Populations in Eastern Australia

1986 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 213 ◽  
Author(s):  
LW Braithwaite ◽  
M Maher ◽  
SV Briggs ◽  
BS Parker
Keyword(s):  
Surface Waters ◽  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Aerial Survey ◽  
Game Species ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Black Duck ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Central Eastern

Populations of waterfowl of three game species, the Pacific black duck Anus superciliosa, grey teal A. gibberifrons, and maned duck Chenonetta jubata, were assessed by aerial survey in October 1983 within a survey region of 2 697 000 km2 of eastern Australia. The numbers of each species were assessed on all surface waters of over 1 ha, and on a sample of smaller surface waters within 10 survey bands each 30 km wide and spaced at intervals of 2� latitude from 20�30' to 38�30'S. The area within the survey bands was 324 120 km2, which gave a sampling intensity of 12.0% of the land surface area. The area of features shown as wetlands or water impoundments within the survey bands on 1 : 2 500 000 topographic maps was 19 200 km2 or 11.2% of the total area of these features in the survey region. The area of surface waters surveyed was assessed at 465 300 ha. Assessments of populations of each species were tallied for wetlands by grid cells of 6 min of 1� longitude along the survey bands (258-309 km2 depending on latitude). Distributions were then mapped, with log*10 indices of populations in each cell. Distributions of the black duck and grey teal showed a pattern of intense aggregation in limited numbers of cells, that of the maned duck was more evenly distributed. The major concentrations of the Pacific black duck were recorded in northern New South Wales and the south-eastern, western, central eastern and central coastal regions of Queensland; those of the grey teal were in south-western, western and northern New South Wales and central-eastern Queensland; the maned duck was broadly distributed over inland New South Wales with the exception of the far west, inland southern Queensland, and central northern Victoria.

scholarly journals Insectivorous bats are less active near freeways

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0247400
Author(s):  
Manisha Bhardwaj ◽  
Kylie Soanes ◽  
José J. Lahoz-Monfort ◽  
Linda F. Lumsden ◽  
Rodney van der Ree
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Insectivorous Bats ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
The Road ◽  
Environmental Impact Assessments ◽  
Wildlife Populations ◽  
Roadside Verges ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Plant Pollinator

Traffic disturbances (i.e. pollution, light, noise, and vibrations) often extend into the area surrounding a road creating a ‘road-effect zone’. Habitat within the road-effect zone is degraded or, in severe cases, completely unsuitable for wildlife, resulting in indirect habitat loss. This can have a disproportionate impact on wildlife in highly modified landscapes, where remaining habitat is scarce or occurs predominantly along roadside reserves. In this study, we investigated the road-effect zone for insectivorous bats in highly cleared agricultural landscapes by quantifying the change in call activity with proximity to three major freeways. The activity of seven out of 10 species of bat significantly decreased with proximity to the freeway. We defined the road-effect zone to be the proximity at which call activity declined by at least 20% relative to the maximum detected activity. The overall road-effect zone for bats in this region was 307 m, varying between 123 and 890 m for individual species. Given that this road-effect zone exceeds the typical width of the roadside verges (<50 m), it is possible that much of the vegetation adjacent to freeways in this and similar landscapes provides low-quality habitat for bats. Without accounting for the road-effect zone, the amount of habitat lost or degraded due to roads is underestimated, potentially resulting in the loss of wildlife, ecosystem services and key ecosystem processes (e.g. predator-prey or plant-pollinator interactions) from the landscape. We suggest all future environmental impact assessments include quantifying the road-effect zone for sensitive wildlife, in order to best plan and mitigate the impact of roads on the environment. Mitigating the effects of new and existing roads on wildlife is essential to ensure enough high-quality habitat persists to maintain wildlife populations.

scholarly journals Prevalence of Campylobacter coli and Campylobacter jejuni in Retail Chicken, Beef, Lamb, and Pork Products in Three Australian States

2019 ◽  
Vol 82 (12) ◽  
pp. 2126-2134 ◽  
Author(s):  
LIZ J. WALKER ◽  
RHIANNON L. WALLACE ◽  
JAMES J. SMITH ◽  
TRUDY GRAHAM ◽  
THEMY SAPUTRA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
Sampling Period ◽  
Common Species ◽  
Chicken Meat ◽  
Campylobacter Coli ◽  
Pork Products ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Meat Samples ◽  
Campylobacter Infection ◽  
Campylobacter Spp

ABSTRACT The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence and distribution of Campylobacter species in a variety of fresh and frozen meat and offal products collected from retail outlets in New South Wales (NSW), Queensland (Qld), and Victoria (Vic). A total of 1,490 chicken, beef, lamb, and pork samples were collected from Australian supermarkets and butcher shops over a 2-year sampling period (October 2016 to October 2018). Campylobacter spp. were detected in 90% of chicken meat and 73% of chicken offal products (giblet and liver), with significantly lower prevalence in lamb (38%), pork (31%), and beef (14%) offal (kidney and liver). Although retail chicken meat was frequently contaminated with Campylobacter, the level of contamination was generally low. Where quantitative analysis was conducted, 98% of chicken meat samples, on average, had &lt;10,000 CFU Campylobacter per carcass, with 10% &lt;21 CFU per carcass. Campylobacter coli was the most frequently recovered species in chicken meat collected in NSW (53%) and Vic (56%) and in chicken offal collected in NSW (77%), Qld (59%), and Vic (58%). In beef, lamb, and pork offal, C. jejuni was generally the most common species (50 to 86%), with the exception of pork offal collected in NSW, where C. coli was more prevalent (69%). Campylobacter prevalence was significantly higher in fresh lamb (46%) and pork (31%) offal than in frozen offal (17 and 11%, respectively). For chicken, beef, and pork offal, the prevalence of Campylobacter spp. was significantly higher on delicatessen products compared with prepackaged products. This study demonstrated that meat and offal products are frequently contaminated with Campylobacter. However, the prevalence is markedly different in different meats, and the level of chicken meat portion contamination is generally low. By identifying the types of meat and offal products types that pose the greatest risk of Campylobacter infection to consumers, targeted control strategies can be developed. HIGHLIGHTS

scholarly journals Surfacing and vertical behaviour of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the Mediterranean Sea: implications for aerial surveys

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (5) ◽  
pp. 1979-1991
Author(s):  
Robert Klaus Bauer ◽  
Fabien Forget ◽  
Jean-Marc Fromentin ◽  
Manuela Capello
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Fork Length ◽  
Bluefin Tuna ◽  
Aerial Survey ◽  
Thunnus Thynnus ◽  
Survey Period ◽  
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna ◽  
Aerial Surveys ◽  
Gulf Of Lion ◽  
Nw Mediterranean

Abstract Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) (ABFT) frequently engage in surface basking and foraging behaviour that makes them detectable from afar. This behaviour is utilized for the development of fisheries-independent abundance indices based on aerial surveys, although changes in the surface-feeding dynamics of ABFT are not yet accounted for. We investigated the daytime surfacing behaviour of ABFT at different temporal and vertical resolutions based on 24 individuals (117–158 cm fork length), tagged with pop-up archival tags in the Gulf of Lion, NW-Mediterranean Sea between 2015 and 2016. The results suggest that ABFT remain usually &lt;2 min continuously within the visible surface (0–1 m) during daytime. ABFT presence in the 0–1 and 0–20 m layers varied over time and between individuals but showed a seasonal decline towards autumn with the breakdown of thermal stratification. Furthermore, the rate of surfacing events was highly correlated with the time spent in the 0–20 m layer. Geolocation estimates confirm a strong site fidelity of ABFT during the aerial survey period (August–October) in the Gulf of Lion. Our results support the choice of the survey region and period, but related indices should account for the seasonality of ABFT surface behaviour [i.e. the time spent in the 0–20 m layer.

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