Concept of loss and damage of climate change – a new challenge for climate decision-making? A climate science perspective

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swenja Surminski ◽  
Ana Lopez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Loss And Damage

scholarly journals Decision-making through the grapevine: Winegrowers' perceptions on climate change and the barriers to adaptation planning in New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Alyssa Ryan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Wine Industry ◽  
Adaptation Planning ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Wine Production ◽  
Climate Change Research

<p>New Zealand wine is cultivated in cool climates that produce distinctive flavours and wine-styles, which are representative of the terroir of the region. The effects of climate change can impact the quality and quantity of winegrapes, and the production of premium wine. The aim of this research was to investigate adaptation planning in the New Zealand wine industry by evaluating winegrowers’ decision-making and perceptions of climate change. Research was conducted using primary survey data from New Zealand winegrowers and semi-structured interviews with winegrowers from three case study regions of Marlborough, Central Otago, and Hawke’s Bay. The study was designed to assess how climate change is understood throughout the industry, whether adaptation plans are being developed or employed and the barriers hindering winegrowers’ implementation of adaptation strategies. The results show that winegrowers are somewhat informed about climate change with some adaptation planning occurring. However, the majority of winegrowers have no plans to adapt to climate change. The uncertainty in the climate science and the availability of information were indicated as a barrier to adaptation planning. Winegrowers convey the need for regional information with a focus on reliable forecasting and climate projections for the next few years. The New Zealand wine industry is in a positive position to undertake adaptation with the opportunity to exploit the benefits of climate change for wine production.</p>

Values in (climate) science: What model-based assessments of climate sensitivity teach us about value-judgements and demands on norms thereon

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabine Undorf ◽  
Karoliina Pulkkinen ◽  
Frida Bender ◽  
Per Wikman Svahn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Scientific Practice ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
The Body ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Societal Relevance ◽  
Value Judgements

&lt;p&gt;The need for norms ensuring ethical decision-making in policy is well established, extending to decisions made in the scientific practice that informs policy. Values, including non-epistemic ones such as social values, may guide decision-making in the scientific research process where evidence supports more than one decision given uncertainty, and are thus targeted by many normative suggestions from the philosophical literature. How value-judgements enter the body of research that underlies climate change information, with its immediate relevance for urgent mitigation and adaptation decisions, and how the norms may apply here, is however unclear.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In a practical contribution to the debate on values in climate science, we discuss the process of assessing equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), an idealised property of the real world of high scientific and societal relevance that has as the &amp;#8216;holy grail&amp;#8217; of climate science been regularly assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. We develop a framework consisting of the steps &amp;#8203;model building&amp;#8203;, &amp;#8203;deriving ECS&amp;#8203;, &amp;#8203;combining model results&amp;#8203;, and communicating the findings&amp;#8203; along with the overarching choice of research question&amp;#8203; and &amp;#8203;publishing&amp;#8203;, and present and summarise uncertainties, choices, and possible value-judgements involved in each step. We discuss this in the context of scientific objectivity, scrutinise existing normative, action-guiding literature on values, and suggest requirements for applicable norms and ideas.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We find that both epistemic and non-epistemic values are likely to come into play in scientific practice, with the latter arguably playing a relatively larger role further along the assessment steps. A review of existing literature shows that many of the norms proposed do not reflect the characteristics and complexities of assessments drawing on climate modelling: We find that, among others, it is particularly the distribution of epistemic agency; the technical nature of many of the choices; the unpredictability of a decision for further/future model outcomes; the multi-purposeness of models; and the type of value-judgements -other than risk preferences- involved that pose challenges for existing normative ideas. This calls for the development of new such framings more easily applicable to climate science, potentially guided by the insights presented including the step-framework suggested as a way to structure the analysis of the assessment process.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div&gt;2.11.0.0&lt;/div&gt;

From climate projections to climate change services in Australia – retrospective and future directions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Clarke ◽  
Karl Braganza ◽  
Geoff Gooley ◽  
Michael Grose ◽  
Louise Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Help Desk ◽  
The North ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

&lt;p&gt;Australia is the World&amp;#8217;s driest inhabited continent. It is highly exposed to the impacts of climate change: surrounded by sensitive marine ecosystems including the Great Barrier Reef, vulnerable to tropical cyclones and changing monsoonal patterns in the north, experiencing declining rainfall and runoff in the heavily populated southern and eastern parts of the country, and subject to increasingly severe bushfires. The ever-present flood, drought and bushfire cycles have historically motivated government investment in programs that aim to understand the nation&amp;#8217;s climate and its drivers, and to inform adaptation planning and disaster risk management.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Accordingly, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) have been at the forefront of understanding Australia&amp;#8217;s past and future climate for four decades.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The most recent national climate projections were published in 2015. These focussed on the needs of the natural resource management sector and represented a first step towards delivery of climate change services tailored to the sector&amp;#8217;s needs. Products included decision support tools and provision of training for capacity building. A key component of the research program was stakeholder engagement from inception. The resultant Climate Change in Australia website (www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au) and Help Desk represented the most ambitious steps to date towards a comprehensive Australian climate change service, and were a first attempt at user-driven information delivery.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Now five years on, users' needs have evolved substantially. Key drivers of this include: (1) the Paris Agreement (2015) to limit global temperature rise to below 2.0&amp;#176;C (ideally below 1.5&amp;#176;C) above pre-industrial levels, (2) implications of the Taskforce for Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD, 2017), and (3) IPCC Special Reports. This has occurred on top of a trend towards increasingly sophisticated uses of climate projections datasets for decision-making. Existing products do not meet all user needs. There is a pronounced &amp;#8216;pull&amp;#8217; from users of climate projections for sector-specific &quot;decision-relevant&quot; information for risk-management decisions. The cross-jurisdictional impacts of climate change have also resulted in a need for authoritative, standardized and quality-assured climate scenarios for the entire country, to facilitate whole of sector, cross-agency and multi-sector responses and adaptation. As Lourenco et al (2016) said, climate change services for Australia need to shift from &amp;#8220;science-driven and user informed services to user-driven and science informed services.&amp;#8221;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;There is increased emphasis on sector-specific tools that aim to provide decision-relevant information and underpinning datasets. An ongoing challenge is the need to enable the uptake of climate information in decision-making. This necessitates a skill uplift on the user side. To date, efforts have focused on the water, finance, energy, and indigenous land management sectors. Increasingly, the focus within Australia is on working together across jurisdictional boundaries to provide nationally consistent information; with enhanced transparency drawing upon climate science resources within universities and all levels of government. Strong partnerships with the private sector are also needed in order to deliver to burgeoning demand. Success will require genuine co-design, co-production and co-evaluation of sector-specific products with a suite of support services appropriate to the needs of diverse users.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Decision-making through the grapevine: Winegrowers' perceptions on climate change and the barriers to adaptation planning in New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Alyssa Ryan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Wine Industry ◽  
Adaptation Planning ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Wine Production ◽  
Climate Change Research

<p>New Zealand wine is cultivated in cool climates that produce distinctive flavours and wine-styles, which are representative of the terroir of the region. The effects of climate change can impact the quality and quantity of winegrapes, and the production of premium wine. The aim of this research was to investigate adaptation planning in the New Zealand wine industry by evaluating winegrowers’ decision-making and perceptions of climate change. Research was conducted using primary survey data from New Zealand winegrowers and semi-structured interviews with winegrowers from three case study regions of Marlborough, Central Otago, and Hawke’s Bay. The study was designed to assess how climate change is understood throughout the industry, whether adaptation plans are being developed or employed and the barriers hindering winegrowers’ implementation of adaptation strategies. The results show that winegrowers are somewhat informed about climate change with some adaptation planning occurring. However, the majority of winegrowers have no plans to adapt to climate change. The uncertainty in the climate science and the availability of information were indicated as a barrier to adaptation planning. Winegrowers convey the need for regional information with a focus on reliable forecasting and climate projections for the next few years. The New Zealand wine industry is in a positive position to undertake adaptation with the opportunity to exploit the benefits of climate change for wine production.</p>

scholarly journals What climate change means for farmers in Africa: A triptych review Left panel: Increasing climate variability and a response approach for African farmers

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (61) ◽  
pp. 8445-8458
Author(s):  
CJ Stigter ◽  
◽  
E Ofori ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Direct Consequence ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Weather And Climate

In this paper in three parts, climate change is approached by dealing with the three sides from which the danger comes: (i) global warming, (ii) increasing climate variability, (iii) more (and possibly more severe) meteorological and climatological extreme events. These are the three panels of this triptych review and this left panel is about (ii). This second panel starts with a compelling review of the present situation of food security, referring to African examples to improve the situation. Then the influence is discussed that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has on increasing climate variability as a consequence of climate change. It is indicated that, to date, climate models have been developed with little knowledge of agricultural systems dynamics. On the other hand one can illustrate that agricultural policy analysis has been conducted with little knowledge of climate dynamics. As a direct consequence of capricious behaviour of particularly rainfall in West Africa, the adaptation of its farmers has lagged behind enormously. This statement is valid for most farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Within the climate science community there is an emerging effort to make findings more suitable for decision making, but as yet there is little consensus as to how data may be relied upon for decision making. Then a lot of attention is paid to how response farming, that is thoroughly defined, can play an important role in coping with the consequences of climate variability. Response farming is often limited envisaging rainfall events, but coping with weather and climate (and often soil) disasters as well as using windows of weather and climate (and often soil) opportunities are other forms of responding to weather and climate (and often soil) realities. Services such as in advice on design rules on above and below ground microclimate management or manipulation, with respect to any appreciable microclimatic improvement: shading, wind protection, mulching, other surface modification, drying, storage, frost protection and so on belong to such “response farming” agrometeorological services. Ideally, to get optimal preparations, farmers get advisories/services through extension intermediaries, backed by scientists, to properly understand decision options through discussions supported by economic analyses. Throughout the paper text boxes are used that illustrate local conditions that must be taken into account if one wants to understand the impacts/consequences of climate change for African farmers and how they may cope with them.

scholarly journals Climate Information: Towards Transparent Distillation

2021 ◽  
pp. 17-35
Author(s):  
Christopher D. Jack ◽  
John Marsham ◽  
David P. Rowell ◽  
Richard G. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Climate Change Risk ◽  
Decision Context ◽  
Value Judgements ◽  
Important Basis ◽  
Lines Of Evidence

AbstractConstructing climate information to inform climate change risk-related decision-making is challenging and requires a rigorous interrogation and understanding of multiple lines of evidence and an assessment of the values, limits and uncertainties involved. Critically, there is no definitive approach agreed on by all climate scientists. Rather, a range of approaches and assumptions are used, with implications for robustness, reliability and uncertainty. Often these choices and assumptions are informed by the values and objectives of climate science rather than the decision context. We propose an approach, information distillation, that makes explicit and open for deliberation many of the implicit decisions and value judgements that occur throughout the process of constructing information. We argue that this approach must engage substantively with the decision context and open up choices and assumptions in a transparent manner to deliberation across climate scientists and context experts. This should ensure relevance and usability, and build understanding and trust to form an important basis for effective uptake of information. Two case studies are described demonstrating the effectiveness of these approaches and illustrating several important principles for transparent information distillation.

scholarly journals The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate in Latin America: Knowledge Gaps and the Urgency to Translate Science Into Action

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mônica M. C. Muelbert ◽  
Margareth Copertino ◽  
Leticia Cotrim da Cunha ◽  
Mirtha Noemi Lewis ◽  
Andrei Polejack ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Knowledge Production ◽  
Effective Action ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Science

Climate Change hazards to social-ecological systems are well-documented and the time to act is now. The IPCC-SROCC used the best available scientific knowledge to identify paths for effective adaptation and mitigation of climate change impacts on the ocean and cryosphere. Despite all the evidence highlighted by SROCC and the key role of the ocean and cryosphere for climate change at all levels, Latin America (LA) faces challenges to take effective action mostly due to socio-economic vulnerability, political instability and overall technical capacities. Countries have adopted diverse actions as the information needed by policy makers has been made available, not necessarily in accessible and inclusive ways. Regional imbalance in economic development, technological level, capacity development, societal involvement, and governmental oversight have contributed to skewed geographical and technological gaps of knowledge on key ecosystems and specific areas preventing effective climate actions/solutions. We analyze the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) from the region as proxies to the incorporation of IPCC recommendations. The gaps and opportunities for the uptake of ocean and climate science to political decision making is discussed as five key aspects: (i) climate assessment information and regional policies, (ii) knowledge production, (iii) knowledge accessibility, (iv) knowledge impact to policy, and (v) long term monitoring for decision making. We advocate that the uptake of SROCC findings in LA policies can be enhanced by: (a) embracing local realities and incorporating local, traditional and indigenous knowledge; (b) empowering locals to convey local knowledge to global assessments and adapt findings to local realities; (c) enhancing regional research capabilities; and (d) securing long-term sustainable ocean observations. Local and regional participation in knowledge production and provision enhances communication pathways, climate literacy and engagement which are key for effective action to be reflected in governance. Currently, the lack of accessible and inclusive information at the local level hampers the overall understanding, integration and engagement of the society to mitigate climate effects, perpetuates regional heterogeneity and threatens the efforts to reverse the course of climate change in LA. Local researchers should be empowered, encouraged, rewarded and better included in global climate-ocean scientific assessments.

Climate change-related non-economic loss and damage in Bangladesh and Japan

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 166-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yohei Chiba ◽  
Rajib Shaw ◽  
Sivapuram Prabhakar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
National Level ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Loss And Damage ◽  
Assess Climate Change

Purpose This paper aims to assess climate change-related non-economic loss and damage (NELD) through case studies of Bangladesh and Japan, evaluate how NELD are addressed in these countries and provide the ways forward for further improvement. Design/methodology/approach This paper reviewed the literature to examine NELD and looked into currently available methodologies and their limitations. It reviewed governmental disaster reports and plans and interviewed with communities to understand NELD in each country’s context. Findings This paper indicates that NELDs are not sufficiently reported in the countries studied. Underestimation of NELD may lead to limited outcomes in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). NELD should be measured and integrated into decision-making, through capacity-building from local to national level. Research limitations/implications This paper is based on the literature review and stakeholder consultations in the study countries. The results are specific to these countries. Readers may find them applicable to other country situations. Practical implications NELD-related information is directly relevant for preparing countries to achieve their sustainable development, CCA and DRR objectives as suggested by the recent international frameworks such as sustainable development goals (SDGs), Paris Agreement and Sendai Framework for DRR. Social implications This paper identifies several NELD indicators related to societal well-being in the study countries and beyond, and addressing them will have positive impact on the society. Originality/value Addressing NELD is a recent topic under United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and nothing much has been done on how countries can address NELD in their developmental, CCA and DRR approaches. This paper identifies the importance of integrating NELD into decision-making and the ways forward to researchers, governments and policymakers for addressing NELD.

Megadrought and Collapse

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
15Th Century ◽  
Societal Collapse ◽  
The Face ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Paleoclimate Proxy ◽  
Habitat Tracking

This is the first book to treat the major examples of megadrought and societal collapse, from the late Pleistocene end of hunter–gatherer culture and origins of cultivation to the 15th century AD fall of the Khmer Empire capital at Angkor, and ranging from the Near East to South America. Previous enquiries have stressed the possible multiple and internal causes of collapse, such overpopulation, overexploitation of resources, warfare, and poor leadership and decision-making. In contrast, Megadrought and Collapse presents case studies of nine major episodes of societal collapse in which megadrought was the major and independent cause of societal collapse. In each case the most recent paleoclimatic evidence for megadroughts, multiple decades to multiple centuries in duration, is presented alongside the archaeological records for synchronous societal collapse. The megadrought data are derived from paleoclimate proxy sources (lake, marine, and glacial cores; speleothems, or cave stalagmites; and tree-rings) and are explained by researchers directly engaged in their analysis. Researchers directly responsible for them discuss the relevant current archaeological records. Two arguments are developed through these case studies. The first is that societal collapse in different time periods and regions and at levels of social complexity ranging from simple foragers to complex empires would not have occurred without megadrought. The second is that similar responses to megadrought extend across these historical episodes: societal collapse in the face of insurmountable climate change, abandonment of settlements and regions, and habitat tracking to sustainable agricultural landscapes. As we confront megadrought today, and in the likely future, Megadrought and Collapse brings together the latest contributions to our understanding of past societal responses to the crisis on an equally global and diverse scale.

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