scholarly journals Low recidivism rates of child sex offenders in a Finnish 7-year follow-up

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-111
Author(s):  
Taina Laajasalo ◽  
Noora Ellonen ◽  
Julia Korkman ◽  
Tom Pakkanen ◽  
Olli-Pekka Aaltonen
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Recidivism Rates

Similar Predictive Accuracy of the Static-99R Risk Tool for White, Black, and Hispanic Sex Offenders in California

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (9) ◽  
pp. 1125-1140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seung C. Lee ◽  
R. Karl Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Cultural Bias ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Assessment Procedures

Although considerable research has found overall moderate predictive validity of Static-99R, a sex offender risk prediction tool, relatively little research has addressed its potential for cultural bias. This prospective study evaluated the predictive validity of Static-99R across the three major ethnic groups (White, n = 789; Black, n = 466; Hispanic, n = 719) in the state of California. Static-99R was able to discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists among White, Black, and Hispanic sex offenders (all area under the curve [AUC] values >.70; odds ratios >1.39). Base rates (at a Static-99R score of 2) with a fixed 5-year follow-up across ethnic groups were very similar (2.4%-3.0%) but were significantly lower than the norms (5.6%). The current findings support the use of Static-99R in risk assessment procedures for sex offenders of White, Black, and Hispanic heritage, but it should be used with caution in estimating absolute sexual recidivism rates, particularly for Hispanic sex offenders.

The 2015 Static-99R: Alternative Recidivism Tables for High-Risk Offenders

2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (14) ◽  
pp. 1593-1605 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Elwood ◽  
Sharon M. Kelley ◽  
James C. Mundt
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Viable Option ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sexually Violent ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
Sexually Violent Person ◽  
Male Sex Offenders

The Static-99R is an actuarial scale that is commonly used to assess the recidivism risk of male sex offenders. Hanson, Thornton, Helmus, and Babchishin recently revised the Static-99R norms based on revised analyses that excluded the large Bridgewater sample. As a result, the sample size of the high risk/high need (HR/HN) group was reduced substantially, which increased the confidence intervals around the predicted recidivism rates. This study provides alternative 5- and 10-year recidivism rates based on logistic regression analyses of the entire 2009 Static-99R HR/HN group that includes the Bridgewater sample. These rates fit the observed 2009 data well and have smaller confidence intervals. We propose that using alternative sexual recidivism rates from the 2009 HR/HN group is a viable option for assessing sexually violent person (SVP) and other high-risk offenders.

Using Logistic Regression Modeling to Predict Sexual Recidivism

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 350-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe ◽  
Pamela J. Freske
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Contemporary Sample ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
Likelihood Model ◽  
High Level

This study presents the results from efforts to revise the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST-R), one of the most widely used sex offender risk-assessment tools. The updated instrument, the MnSOST-3, contains nine individual items, six of which are new. The population for this study consisted of the cross-validation sample for the MnSOST-R ( N = 220) and a contemporary sample of 2,315 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2006. To score and select items for the MnSOST-3, we used predicted probabilities generated from a multiple logistic regression model. We used bootstrap resampling to not only refine our selection of predictors but also internally validate the model. The results indicate the MnSOST-3 has a relatively high level of predictive discrimination, as evidenced by an apparent AUC of .821 and an optimism-corrected AUC of .796. The findings show the MnSOST-3 is well calibrated with actual recidivism rates for all but the highest risk offenders. Although estimating a penalized maximum likelihood model did not improve the overall calibration, the results suggest the MnSOST-3 may still be useful in helping identify high-risk offenders whose sexual recidivism risk exceeds 50%. Results from an interrater reliability assessment indicate the instrument, which is scored in a Microsoft Excel application, has an adequate degree of consistency across raters (ICC = .83 for both consistency and absolute agreement).

Comparing the Central Eight Risk Factors: Do They Differ Across Age Groups of Sex Offenders?

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 (13) ◽  
pp. 4278-4294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Wilpert ◽  
Joan E. van Horn ◽  
Cyril Boonmann
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Behavioral Therapy ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Dynamic Risk Factors ◽  
Rnr Model ◽  
Risk Need Responsivity ◽  
Reducing Recidivism ◽  
General Recidivism

Following the risk-need-responsivity (RNR) model, cognitive-behavioral therapy is considered most effective in reducing recidivism when based on dynamic risk factors. As studies have found differences of these factors across age, exploring this seems beneficial. The current study investigates the Central Eight (C8) risk factors across six age groups of outpatient sex offenders ( N = 650). Results showed that recidivism rates and age were inversely related from 19 years and up. Half of the C8 did not predict general recidivism at all, substance abuse, antisocial cognition, antisocial associates, and history of antisocial behavior in only one or several age groups. However, factors differed between age groups, with the youngest group demonstrating the most dysfunction in several areas and the oldest group the least. It is concluded that the C8 risk factors seem to lose significance in the older age groups. Results may benefit targeting treatment goals.

Megan’s Law 20 Years Later: An Empirical Analysis and Policy Review

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (7) ◽  
pp. 1028-1046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristen M. Zgoba ◽  
Wesley G. Jennings ◽  
Laura M. Salerno
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Megan's Law ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Before And After ◽  
General Recidivism

This present study examines the sexual and general recidivism rates of 547 convicted sex offenders released before and after the enactment of Megan’s Law in New Jersey. Presenting the longest Megan’s Law evaluation, participants were followed for an average of 15 years after release (range = 10-29 years). Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression equations were estimated to identify covariates significantly associated with both sexual and general recidivism. Group-based trajectories of general recidivism within the 10 years post–prison release were also estimated and compared according to pre–Megan’s Law and post–Megan’s Law release status. No differences in recidivism rates were noted between the cohorts, but differences emerged in the offending trajectories of the high-risk group of offenders within 10 years of release. These results highlight the lack of impact that sex offender registration and notification (SORN) laws have on sexual and general reoffending rates postrelease.

Predictive Validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in Switzerland

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-219
Author(s):  
Leonel C. Gonçalves ◽  
Juliane Gerth ◽  
Astrid Rossegger ◽  
Thomas Noll ◽  
Jérôme Endrass
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Cut Score ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
Male Sex Offenders

This study evaluated the validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in assessing sexual recidivism in Switzerland, based on a sample of 142 male sex offenders. Both tools showed predictive validity, but the Static-99R had better discrimination (OR = 1.82, AUC = .81) and calibration (Brier = .078, P/E = 0.96) than the Static-99. A cut score of four on the Static-99R maximized sensitivity (92.9%) and specificity (60.2%). However, although most offenders (98.7%) with a score < 4 did not commit sexual offenses in the 5-year follow-up period, only one in five (20.3%) offenders with a score ≥ 4 actually recidivated. Furthermore, the predicted number of recidivists in the well above average risk category (Static-99R ≥ 6) was 24% higher than expected in routine samples. The results suggest that the Static-99R may be a useful screening tool to identify low-risk individuals but offenders with scores ≥ 4 should be subjected to a more thorough assessment.

Recidivism

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faye S. Taxman ◽  
Mary Mun
Keyword(s):  
Justice System ◽  
Drug Users ◽  
Recidivism Rate ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Drug Of Choice ◽  
Drugs And Crime ◽  
Time Frames ◽  
The Relationship

High rates of rearrest and recidivism, especially among drug-involved individuals, are of grave concern for the justice system and society at large. This chapter looks at the factors affecting recidivism rates of substance-involved individuals involved in the justice system. We begin by considering the complexity of measuring recidivism and the meaning of this concept; the term is fraught with difficulties due to the complexities of generalizing findings across studies with varying sampling frames and time-frames for follow-up, and differences in the types of recidivism events studied. Recent research illustrates that recidivism rates among drug users vary by drug of choice and are typically higher among individuals who use amphetamines, heroin, and/or cocaine. Recidivism rates may also vary depending on the presence of certain comorbid factors, although this is an emerging area of research. Factors that appear to elevate recidivism rates include personality disorders, co-occurring substance abuse and mental health disorders, other psychiatric disorders, and other serious mental illness. The location of an individual’s residence also appears to impact the recidivism rate, possibly mediated by the presence or absence of various protective factors in the community. While the nature of the relationship between drugs and crime is still unclear, the same is true for our understanding of recidivism among substance users in the justice system. There is a need for a greater understanding of the relationship between substance use and recidivism, in order to fill existing knowledge gaps.

Predictive Accuracy of Dynamic Risk Factors for Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Sex Offenders

2011 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 856-876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie Helmus ◽  
Kelly M. Babchishin ◽  
Julie Blais
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
Community Supervision ◽  
Relationship Stability ◽  
Dynamic Risk Factors ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Aboriginal Offenders

Although Aboriginal offenders are overrepresented in Canadian prisons, there is limited research examining the extent to which commonly used risk factors and risk scales are applicable to Aboriginals. Aboriginal ( n = 88) and non-Aboriginal ( n = 509) sex offenders on community supervision were compared on the dynamic risk factors of STABLE-2007. Data on sexual, violent, any crime, and any recidivism (including breaches) were collected with an average follow-up of 3.4 years. Aboriginal offenders scored significantly higher than non-Aboriginal offenders on STABLE-2007 total scores and on several items measuring general criminality. STABLE-2007 did not significantly predict recidivism with Aboriginal offenders (although it did for non-Aboriginals). The general antisociality items were generally significantly less predictive for Aboriginals than non-Aboriginals, whereas items assessing sexual self-regulation and relationship stability predicted similarly for both groups. These exploratory results suggest that Aboriginal sex offenders are a higher-needs group but that some STABLE-2007 items are not predictive with this population.

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