Megan’s Law 20 Years Later: An Empirical Analysis and Policy Review

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (7) ◽  
pp. 1028-1046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristen M. Zgoba ◽  
Wesley G. Jennings ◽  
Laura M. Salerno
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Megan's Law ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Before And After ◽  
General Recidivism

This present study examines the sexual and general recidivism rates of 547 convicted sex offenders released before and after the enactment of Megan’s Law in New Jersey. Presenting the longest Megan’s Law evaluation, participants were followed for an average of 15 years after release (range = 10-29 years). Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression equations were estimated to identify covariates significantly associated with both sexual and general recidivism. Group-based trajectories of general recidivism within the 10 years post–prison release were also estimated and compared according to pre–Megan’s Law and post–Megan’s Law release status. No differences in recidivism rates were noted between the cohorts, but differences emerged in the offending trajectories of the high-risk group of offenders within 10 years of release. These results highlight the lack of impact that sex offender registration and notification (SORN) laws have on sexual and general reoffending rates postrelease.

scholarly journals The War on Sex Offenders: Community Notification in Perspective

2001 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 256-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lyn Hinds ◽  
Kathleen Daly
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
The United States ◽  
Community Notification ◽  
Megan's Law ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Campaign ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Naming And Shaming

This article explores the contemporary phenomenon of “naming and shaming” sex offenders. Community notification laws, popularly known as Megan's Law, which authorise the public disclosure of the identity of convicted sex offenders to the community in which they live, were enacted throughout the United States in the 1990s. A public campaign to introduce “Sarah's Law” has recently been launched in Britain, following the death of eight-year old Sarah Payne. Why are sex offenders, and certain categories of sex offenders, singled out as targets of community notification laws? What explains historical variability in the form that sex offender laws take? We address these questions by reviewing the sexual psychopath laws enacted in the United States in the 1930s and 40s and the sexual predator and community notification laws of the 1990s, comparing recent developments in the United States with those in Britain, Canada, and Australia. We consider arguments by Garland, O'Malley, Pratt, and others on how community notification, and the control of sex offenders more generally, can be explained; and we speculate on the likelihood that Australia will adopt community notification laws.

Using Logistic Regression Modeling to Predict Sexual Recidivism

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 350-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe ◽  
Pamela J. Freske
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Contemporary Sample ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
Likelihood Model ◽  
High Level

This study presents the results from efforts to revise the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST-R), one of the most widely used sex offender risk-assessment tools. The updated instrument, the MnSOST-3, contains nine individual items, six of which are new. The population for this study consisted of the cross-validation sample for the MnSOST-R ( N = 220) and a contemporary sample of 2,315 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2006. To score and select items for the MnSOST-3, we used predicted probabilities generated from a multiple logistic regression model. We used bootstrap resampling to not only refine our selection of predictors but also internally validate the model. The results indicate the MnSOST-3 has a relatively high level of predictive discrimination, as evidenced by an apparent AUC of .821 and an optimism-corrected AUC of .796. The findings show the MnSOST-3 is well calibrated with actual recidivism rates for all but the highest risk offenders. Although estimating a penalized maximum likelihood model did not improve the overall calibration, the results suggest the MnSOST-3 may still be useful in helping identify high-risk offenders whose sexual recidivism risk exceeds 50%. Results from an interrater reliability assessment indicate the instrument, which is scored in a Microsoft Excel application, has an adequate degree of consistency across raters (ICC = .83 for both consistency and absolute agreement).

Comparing the Central Eight Risk Factors: Do They Differ Across Age Groups of Sex Offenders?

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 (13) ◽  
pp. 4278-4294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Wilpert ◽  
Joan E. van Horn ◽  
Cyril Boonmann
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Behavioral Therapy ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Dynamic Risk Factors ◽  
Rnr Model ◽  
Risk Need Responsivity ◽  
Reducing Recidivism ◽  
General Recidivism

Following the risk-need-responsivity (RNR) model, cognitive-behavioral therapy is considered most effective in reducing recidivism when based on dynamic risk factors. As studies have found differences of these factors across age, exploring this seems beneficial. The current study investigates the Central Eight (C8) risk factors across six age groups of outpatient sex offenders ( N = 650). Results showed that recidivism rates and age were inversely related from 19 years and up. Half of the C8 did not predict general recidivism at all, substance abuse, antisocial cognition, antisocial associates, and history of antisocial behavior in only one or several age groups. However, factors differed between age groups, with the youngest group demonstrating the most dysfunction in several areas and the oldest group the least. It is concluded that the C8 risk factors seem to lose significance in the older age groups. Results may benefit targeting treatment goals.

Police officer perspectives on the implementation of a sex offender community notification scheme

2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 261-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Whitting ◽  
Andrew Day ◽  
Martine Powell
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Police Officers ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
The United States ◽  
Community Notification ◽  
Megan's Law ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Australian State ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Depth Interviews

Community notification statutes, popularly known as ‘Megan’s Law’, were passed in rapid succession throughout the United States following the enactment of landmark legislation in the state of Washington in 1990. Calls for the adoption of similar legislation in Australia gained momentum following the introduction of ‘limited disclosure’ schemes in the United Kingdom and, in 2012, one Australian state introduced a limited form of community notification. This study presents an analysis of in-depth interviews with specialist police officers ( N=21) who are responsible for coordinating the ongoing management, registration and monitoring of sex offenders who live in the community in this jurisdiction to understand their perspectives on the scheme’s implementation. Systematic thematic analysis revealed that the officers were particularly interested in understanding the impact that notification has on offenders, victims and the broader community, and the police agency. The practice-based wisdom distilled from these interviews is used to inform a discussion about the more widespread implementation of this type of public policy both in Australia and in other countries that may be giving this consideration.

Similar Predictive Accuracy of the Static-99R Risk Tool for White, Black, and Hispanic Sex Offenders in California

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (9) ◽  
pp. 1125-1140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seung C. Lee ◽  
R. Karl Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Cultural Bias ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Assessment Procedures

Although considerable research has found overall moderate predictive validity of Static-99R, a sex offender risk prediction tool, relatively little research has addressed its potential for cultural bias. This prospective study evaluated the predictive validity of Static-99R across the three major ethnic groups (White, n = 789; Black, n = 466; Hispanic, n = 719) in the state of California. Static-99R was able to discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists among White, Black, and Hispanic sex offenders (all area under the curve [AUC] values >.70; odds ratios >1.39). Base rates (at a Static-99R score of 2) with a fixed 5-year follow-up across ethnic groups were very similar (2.4%-3.0%) but were significantly lower than the norms (5.6%). The current findings support the use of Static-99R in risk assessment procedures for sex offenders of White, Black, and Hispanic heritage, but it should be used with caution in estimating absolute sexual recidivism rates, particularly for Hispanic sex offenders.

Surveillance colonoscopy in Austria: Are we following the guidelines?

Endoscopy ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (02) ◽  
pp. 119-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina Gessl ◽  
Elisabeth Waldmann ◽  
Martha Britto-Arias ◽  
Daniela Penz ◽  
Eleonore Pablik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Screening Colonoscopy ◽  
Reminder Letter ◽  
European Guidelines ◽  
Adenoma Detection ◽  
Before And After

Abstract Background and study aim The European guidelines for quality assurance in colorectal cancer screening and diagnosis contain postpolypectomy surveillance recommendations. They recommend follow-up intervals depending on the findings at index colonoscopy, and divide patients into a low-, intermediate- or high-risk group. The aim of this study was to assess the adherence of Austrian endoscopists to the European guidelines and to determine whether sending a reminder letter resulted in better adherence. Methods A single reminder letter containing the guidelines was sent to all endoscopists who participated in the Certificate of Quality for Screening Colonoscopy program in Austria. Adherence was assessed before and after the letter had been sent. Factors associated with adherence were investigated. Results We found poor baseline adherence to the guidelines. After the reminder letter, the adherence slightly improved in the low-risk group, but did not change in the intermediate-risk or high-risk groups. An adenoma detection rate of at least 20 % was associated with higher adherence rates. Generally, internists and hospitals showed better adherence compared with surgeons and private practices, respectively, both before and after the reminder letter. Conclusion A single reminder letter was not enough to improve the poor adherence to the European postpolypectomy surveillance guidelines. Thus, future studies are required to identify and eliminate all factors responsible for nonadherence to postpolypectomy guidelines in order to reach the goal of a safe, effective, and cost-effective colorectal cancer prevention tool in the near future.

Cross-Validation of the Revised Version of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG-R) in a Sample of Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 107906321984190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priscilla Gregório Hertz ◽  
Reinhard Eher ◽  
Sonja Etzler ◽  
Martin Rettenberger
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offender ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Effect Sizes ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Risk Appraisal ◽  
Violence Risk Appraisal Guide ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
German Speaking ◽  
General Recidivism

The aim of the present study was to examine the psychometric properties of the German version of the revised Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the VRAG-R. Therefore, VRAG-R ratings were made retrospectively in an Austrian sample of 534 individuals convicted of a sexual offense who were followed up with an average of 7.62 years. The VRAG-R showed large effect sizes for the predictive accuracy of violent (AUC = .75) and general recidivism (AUC = .78) and significant but rather small effect sizes (AUC = .63 and .61, respectively) in predicting any sexual and sexual contact recidivism. Furthermore, for the prediction of violent recidivism but not for sexual recidivism the VRAG-R was incrementally predictive beyond the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) and the Static-99. Finally, the VRAG-R absolute recidivism rates for the risk bins showed satisfactory calibration properties. Taken together, the results of the present study support the cross-national utility of the VRAG-R and its use in applied risk assessment settings also in German-speaking countries.

Criminal Histories and Rates of Recidivism Among Two Subtypes of Psychopathic Individuals

2021 ◽  
pp. 009385482110333
Author(s):  
Shelby S. Weaver ◽  
Monika Dargis ◽  
Kent A. Kiehl ◽  
Michael Koenigs
Keyword(s):  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Criminal Recidivism ◽  
Adult Males ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Considerable Evidence ◽  
Criminal Histories ◽  
Violent Recidivism ◽  
State Prisons

Although it is well established that individuals with psychopathic traits are a high-risk group for criminal recidivism, there is considerable evidence that psychopathy is a heterogeneous personality disorder comprised of two subtypes who differ on levels of negative affect (NA). However, few studies have examined differences in criminal histories, and fewer still have investigated differences in recidivism among subtypes of psychopathy. The current study compared criminal histories and recidivism rates between psychopathy subtypes differing in NA (high-NA vs. low-NA) within a sample of adult males incarcerated in state prisons. The high-NA and low-NA psychopathy subtypes did not differ on histories of total, nonviolent, or violent crime, and did not differ on rates of total, nonviolent, or violent recidivism. This finding highlights equally high levels of criminal risk associated with both subtypes of psychopathic individuals. Intervention strategies should be prioritized for both subgroups to effectively reduce the criminal costs associated with psychopathy.

Must the Show Go On? The (In)Ability of Counterevidence to Change Attitudes Toward Crime Control Theater Policies

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dylan Campbell ◽  
Anna Newheiser
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Explicit Knowledge ◽  
Crime Control ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Sex Offender Registration ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Within Subjects ◽  
White Collar Offenders

Objectives: Crime control theater refers to intuitively appealing laws that appear to address crime while lacking any evidence that they actually do so (e.g., sex offender registration and residence restriction laws, which do not reduce recidivism). Despite their ineffectiveness, public support for such laws is high. Hypotheses: We predicted that making people aware of these laws’ failure to reduce crime would lower support for them.Method: Participants (recruited from Mechanical Turk; Study 1: N=298, mean age=35.60, 47.7% self-identified as women and 75.8% as White; Study 2: N=147, mean age=35.03, 40.1% self-identified as women and 85.0% as White; Study 3: N=552, mean age=35.86, 42.9% self-identified as women and 76.4% as White) read about sex offender registration and residence restriction policies and rated their support for these laws, confidence in their opinions about them, and perceptions of their efficacy before and after reading counterevidence highlighting these laws’ failure to reduce sex crimes. Results: Although exposure to counterevidence somewhat lowered support (average within-subjects d=-0.69), general attitudes remained positive even at the post-counterevidence phase (average d=0.46 against the scale midpoint). This pattern held when manipulating the criminal population being targeted (sex offenders vs. white-collar offenders; Study 1), when tailoring counterevidence to people’s self-stated justifications for supporting these laws (Studies 2-3), and despite favorable ratings of the counterevidence’s strength and credibility. Conclusion: Support for crime control theater policies persists despite explicit knowledge that they do not reduce crime, highlighting the need for alternative methods of dissuading people from their support for these ineffective laws.

Comparing Solo- and Co-Offending Female Sex Offenders on Variables of Pathology, Offense Characteristics, and Recidivism

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (8) ◽  
pp. 972-990 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holly A. Miller ◽  
Ethan A. Marshall
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Criminal History ◽  
Female Sex Offenders ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Female Sex ◽  
Treatment And Prevention ◽  
Offending Behavior ◽  
Assessment And Treatment

Due to the smaller proportion of female sex offenders (2%-12% of all sexual offenses) compared with male sex offenders, we know much less about these women to aid in the assessment, treatment, and prevention of their offending behavior compared with men. One promising distinction in female sex offender typology is solo-offending females versus females who offend with a male co-offender. The current study uses a sample of 225 incarcerated female sex offenders to compare solo and co-offending women on variables of psychopathology, criminal history, victim and offender information, and recidivism rates. Results indicate that solo offenders are more likely to have male, unrelated victims, score higher on dominance and aggression, and are more likely to generally recidivate. Solo versus co-offending status was not a significant predictor for sexual recidivism. Implications for assessment and treatment are discussed.

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