scholarly journals Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 124004
Author(s):  
Charles Simpson ◽  
J Scott Hosking ◽  
Dann Mitchell ◽  
Richard A Betts ◽  
Emily Shuckburgh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Regional Disparities ◽  
Indian States ◽  
Seasonal Differences ◽  
Near Surface

Abstract The 880 million agricultural workers of the world are especially vulnerable to increasing heat stress due to climate change, affecting the health of individuals and reducing labour productivity. In this study, we focus on rice harvests across Asia and estimate the future impact on labour productivity by considering changes in climate at the time of the annual harvest. During these specific times of the year, heat stress is often high compared to the rest of the year. Examining climate simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), we identified that labour productivity metrics for the rice harvest, based on local wet-bulb globe temperature, are strongly correlated with global mean near-surface air temperature in the long term (p ≪ 0.01, R 2 > 0.98 in all models). Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2.0 °C prevents a clear reduction in labour capacity of 1% across all Asia and 2% across Southeast Asia, affecting the livelihoods of around 100 million people. Due to differences in mechanization between and within countries, we find that rice labour is especially vulnerable in Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and the Indian states of West Bengal and Kerala. Our results highlight the regional disparities and importance in considering seasonal differences in the estimation of the effect of climate change on labour productivity and occupational heat-stress.

Influence of occupational heat stress on labour productivity – a case study from Chennai, India

2016 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 245-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremiah Chinnadurai ◽  
Vidhya Venugopal ◽  
Kumaravel P ◽  
Paramesh R
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heart Rate ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Productivity Loss ◽  
Threshold Limit Value ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Content Type

Purpose – Raise in temperatures due to climate change is likely to increase the heat stress in occupations that are physically exerting and performed outdoors which might potentially have adverse health and productivity consequences. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the productivities in construction work under the influence of heat stress using the predicted mean vote (PMV) index. Design/methodology/approach – Field studies were conducted during May 2014 which is summer time in Chennai. Continuous heart rate of workers and wet bulb globe temperature measurements are conducted for workers engaged in different jobs in construction. Metabolic rates and the workload of the workers from heart rate were calculated using the ISO method 8996 and the PMV values are calculated using the tool developed by Malchaire based on the method ISO 7730. Direct observations and personal interviews were conducted to substantiate the productivity estimations. Findings – The results showed that workers working outdoors with moderate and heavy workload exceeded the threshold limit value of 28°C and had adverse productivity impacts (18-35 per cent productivity loss), whereas the workers engaged in light indoor work was not affected by heat stress and consequent productivity losses. The productivity estimations using the PMV index is found to be statistically significant for three types of construction works (Pearson correlation coefficient value of −0.78) and also correlated well with the observations and self-reported productivities of the workers. Originality/value – The method used in this paper provides a scientific and reliable estimation of the productivities which may benefit the industry to set realistic project completion goals in hot weather and also implement interventions and policies to protect workers’ health. Developing adaptive strategies and implementing control measures are the need of the hour to protect worker’s health and economic losses in the face of climate change.

scholarly journals Evaluation of CLDAS and GLDAS Datasets for Near-Surface Air Temperature over Major Land Areas of China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4311
Author(s):  
Shuai Han ◽  
Buchun Liu ◽  
Chunxiang Shi ◽  
Yuan Liu ◽  
Meijuan Qiu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Land Data Assimilation ◽  
Land Data Assimilation System ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

As one of the most principal meteorological factors to affect global climate change and human sustainable development, temperature plays an important role in biogeochemical and hydrosphere cycle. To date, there are a wide range of temperature data sources and only a detailed understanding of the reliability of these datasets can help us carry out related research. In this study, the hourly and daily near-surface air temperature observations collected at national automatic weather stations (NAWS) in China were used to compare with the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), both of which were developed by using the advanced multi-source data fusion technology. Results are as follows. (1) The spatial and temporal variations of the near-surface air temperature agree well between CLDAS and GLDAS over major land of China, except that spatial details in high mountainous areas were not sufficiently displayed in GLDAS; (2) The near-surface air temperature of CLDAS were more significantly correlated with observations than that of GLDAS, but more caution is necessary when using the data in mountain areas as the accuracy of the datasets gradually decreases with increasing altitude; (3) CLDAS can better illustrate the distribution of areas of daily maximum above 35 °C and help to monitor high temperature weather. The main conclusion of this study is that CLDAS near-surface air temperature has a higher reliability in China, which is very important for the study of climate change and sustainable development in East Asia.

scholarly journals Will population exposure to heat extremes intensify over Southeast Asia in a warmer world?

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuerong Sun ◽  
Fei Ge ◽  
Yi Fan ◽  
Shoupeng Zhu ◽  
Quanliang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Population Exposure ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Heat Extremes

Abstract Temperature extremes have increased during the past several decades and are expected to intensify under current rapid global warming over Southeast Asia (SEA). Exposure to rising temperatures in highly vulnerable regions affects populations, ecosystems, and other elements that may suffer potential losses. Here, we evaluate changes in temperature extremes and future population exposure over SEA at global warming levels (GWLs) of 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Results indicate that temperature extreme indices are projected to increase over SEA at both GWLs, with more significant magnitudes at 3.0 °C. However, daily temperature ranges (DTR) show a decrease. The substantial increase in total SEA population exposure to heat extremes from 730 million person-days at 2.0 °C GWL to 1,200 million person-days at 3.0 °C GWL is mostly contributed by the climate change component, accounting for 48%. In addition, if the global warming is restricted well below 2.0 °C, the avoided impacts in population exposure are prominent for most regions over SEA with the largest mitigation in the Philippines (PH). Aggregate population exposure to impacts is decreased by approximately 39% at 2.0 °C GWL, while the interaction component effect, which is associated with increased population and climate change, would decrease by 53%. This indicates the serious consequences for growing populations concurrent with global warming impacts if the current fossil-fueled development pathway is adhered to. The present study estimates the risks of increased temperature extremes and population exposure in a warmer future, and further emphasizes the necessity and urgency of implementing climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in SEA.

scholarly journals Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP-6 multi-model ensemble

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence Mudryk ◽  
Maria Santolaria-Otín ◽  
Gerhard Krinner ◽  
Martin Ménégoz ◽  
Chris Derksen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Research Programme ◽  
Fast Response ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Snow Cover Extent ◽  
Snow Mass

Abstract. This paper presents an analysis of observed and simulated historical snow cover extent and snow mass, along with future snow cover projections from models participating in the 6th phase of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP-6). Where appropriate, the CMIP-6 output is compared to CMIP-5 results in order to assess progress (or absence thereof) between successive model generations. An ensemble of six products are used to produce a new time series of northern hemisphere snow extent anomalies and trends; a subset of four of these products are used for snow mass. Trends in snow extent over 1981–2018 are negative in all months, and exceed −50 × 103 km2 during November, December, March, and May. Snow mass trends are approximately −5 Gt/year or more for all months from December to May. Overall, the CMIP-6 multi-model ensemble better represents the snow extent climatology over the 1981–2014 period for all months, correcting a low bias in CMIP-5. Simulated snow extent and snow mass trends over the 1981–2014 period are slightly stronger in CMIP-6 than in CMIP-5, although large inter-model spread remains in the simulated trends for both variables. There is a single linear relationship between projected spring snow extent and global surface air temperature (GSAT) changes, which is valid across all scenarios. This finding suggests that Northern Hemisphere spring snow extent will decrease by about 8 % relative to the 1995–2014 level per °C of GSAT increase. The sensitivity of snow to temperature forcing largely explains the absence of any climate change pathway dependency, similar to other fast response components of the cryosphere such as sea ice and near surface permafrost.

scholarly journals Plant Physiology Increases the Magnitude and Spread of the Transient Climate Response to CO2 in CMIP6 Earth System Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (19) ◽  
pp. 8561-8578
Author(s):  
Claire M. Zarakas ◽  
Abigail L. S. Swann ◽  
Marysa M. Laguë ◽  
Kyle C. Armour ◽  
James T. Randerson
Keyword(s):  
Plant Physiology ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Physiological Effect ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
System Models ◽  
Earth System Models

AbstractIncreasing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere influence climate both through CO2’s role as a greenhouse gas and through its impact on plants. Plants respond to atmospheric CO2 concentrations in several ways that can alter surface energy and water fluxes and thus surface climate, including changes in stomatal conductance, water use, and canopy leaf area. These plant physiological responses are already embedded in most Earth system models, and a robust literature demonstrates that they can affect global-scale temperature. However, the physiological contribution to transient warming has yet to be assessed systematically in Earth system models. Here this gap is addressed using carbon cycle simulations from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to isolate the radiative and physiological contributions to the transient climate response (TCR), which is defined as the change in globally averaged near-surface air temperature during the 20-yr window centered on the time of CO2 doubling relative to preindustrial CO2 concentrations. In CMIP6 models, the physiological effect contributes 0.12°C (σ: 0.09°C; range: 0.02°–0.29°C) of warming to the TCR, corresponding to 6.1% of the full TCR (σ: 3.8%; range: 1.4%–13.9%). Moreover, variation in the physiological contribution to the TCR across models contributes disproportionately more to the intermodel spread of TCR estimates than it does to the mean. The largest contribution of plant physiology to CO2-forced warming—and the intermodel spread in warming—occurs over land, especially in forested regions.

Ice Season forecast under ClimateChange: Tipping element approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Surovyatkina ◽  
Roman Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Of Okhotsk ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Critical Threshold ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The Sea Of Okhotsk ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Element Approach

<p>The Sea of Okhotsk is a marginal sea of the western Pacific Ocean. It is one of the world's richest in biological resources and famous for the fishing industry. In winter, navigation on the Sea is difficult, if not impossible, due to the harsh conditions of the North and the presence of sea ice. On average, the ice-free period lasts from June to November. However, the start and end dates of the ice season vary from year to year within a month. Such variability is impossible to capture by meteorological methods, which have a limit of predictability for 10 days. The absence of a long-term forecast of the navigational period in the Sea of Okhotsk affects the safety of navigation and the reliability of transit transport.</p><p>Most of the studies of the distribution of ice floes focus on such factors as the location, time of year, water currents, and sea temperatures. In our study, we use the distribution of temperature in the atmosphere and wind direction (NCEP/NCAR re-analyses data set) because most of the area of the Sea of Okhotsk is located in monsoon climate zone. We propose a new approach to forecast predicting the upcoming ice advance/ retreat date by developing our Tipping element approach [1] elaborated for prediction of the Indian Summer Monsoon, which proved to be successful for prediction upcoming monsoon four years in a row (2016-2019).</p><p>The physical mechanism underlying forecast is the following. There is an atmospheric feature that appears at the beginning of the transition to the ice season. We show, for the first time, the evidence in observational data that a transition from open water season to ice season begins when the near-surface air temperature crosses a critical threshold. It appears in the form of spatially organized critical transitions in the atmosphere over the see. This event happening 2-3 months before the ice season is a starting point forecasting date of ice advance. We perform forecast in critical areas - tipping elements of the spatial structure of ice formation, which we identified via data analysis.</p><p>The retrospective test (over the period 2001-2017) confirms that the methodology allows forecasting the ice advance/retreat date more than one month in advance, with a success rate in 88% of the years within the error of +/- 4 days. Forecasts of the upcoming season 2018-2019 show successful results as well.</p><p>Climate change affects the ice season in the Sea of Okhotsk in the following aspects: there has been a declining trend in sea ice cover in recent years due to delays in the ice advance date. Season shift because it takes for the atmosphere longer time cooling down in autumn. The novel approach allows for accounting climate change effects.</p><p>ES acknowledges financial support of the EPICC project (18_II_149_Global_A_Risikovorhersage) funded by BMU, RM acknowledges the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) (No. 20-07-01071)</p><p>[1] Stolbova, V., E. Surovyatkina, B. Bookhagen, and J. Kurths (2016): Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon: Prediction of onset and withdrawal. GRL 43, 1–9 [doi:10.1002/2016GL068392]</p>

scholarly journals The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 168 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Schlosser ◽  
Andrei Sokolov ◽  
Ken Strzepek ◽  
Tim Thomas ◽  
Xiang Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
First Century ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Climate Targets ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractWe present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the twenty-first century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change over three sub-national regions: western, central, and eastern South Africa. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation (3 to 4 times higher than increased) exists for western and central South Africa. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5 °C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within South Africa toward the end of this century (2065–2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over South Africa could be delayed by 30 years and, in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt.

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