scholarly journals Storm surge risk under various strengths and translation speeds of landfalling tropical cyclones

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiliang Xuan ◽  
Ruibin Ding ◽  
Feng Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
River Estuary ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Pearl River Estuary ◽  
Strengthening Effect ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Maximum Wind ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Abstract Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) frequently occur with strong intensity in most coastal areas, and storm surges are likely to occur in response to extreme sea level (ESL) growth. However, the level of ESL growth under various wind conditions, coastline geometries and tide-surge interactions has not been clarified. In the Pearl River Estuary and Daya Bay, observations of landfalling TCs have indicated an increasing frequency of intense and rapid landfalls in the 2010s as compared to the 2000s, accompanied by a noteworthy increase in storm surge. Based on a large ensemble (~0.5 million storm surge events with various tracks, maximum wind speeds, maximum wind radiuses, translation speeds and tidal conditions) obtained from well-validated model simulations, the ESL growth in the study area is further quantified as follows: (1) ESL growth is more sensitive to the acceleration effect of landfalling TCs than to the strengthening effect of landfalling TCs since the effect of low acceleration (+3 m/s) is comparable to that under notable strengthening (+10 m/s); (2) ESL growth is strongly modulated by coastline geometry, especially in flared or arching coastline areas. ESL growth mainly occurs along flared coastline areas when landfalling TCs strengthen into severe tropical cyclones or typhoons but can also occur along arching coastline areas for stronger landfalling TCs, such as severe typhoons or supertyphoons; and (3) ESL growth could be increased or decreased by approximately 10% under the effect of tide-surge interactions. Both the large-ensemble method and the above ESL growth characteristics are worthy of attention in risk assessment and rapid prediction of storm surges in shallow waters.

scholarly journals Effects of Typhoon Paths on Storm Surge and Coastal Inundation in the Pearl River Estuary, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1851
Author(s):  
Mei Du ◽  
Yijun Hou ◽  
Po Hu ◽  
Kai Wang
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
River Estuary ◽  
Pearl River Estuary ◽  
Pearl River ◽  
Coastal Inundation ◽  
The Pearl River Estuary ◽  
Typhoon Center ◽  
The Pearl River ◽  
Holland Model ◽  
First Time

A coastal inundation simulation system was developed for the coast of the Pearl River estuary (PRE), which consists of an assimilation typhoon model and the coupled ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation) + SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) model. The assimilation typhoon model consists of the Holland model and the analysis products of satellite images. This is the first time an assimilation typhoon model has been implemented and tested for coastal inundation via case studies. The simulation results of the system agree well with the real measurements. Three observed typhoon paths (Hope, Nida, and Hato) were chosen to be the studied paths based on their positions relative to the PRE, China. By comparing the results of experiments with different forcing fields, we determined that the storm surge and the coastal inundation were mainly induced by wind forcing. By simulating coastal inundation for different typhoon center speeds, the Hato3 path most easily causes coastal inundation in the PRE. Moreover, the moving speed of the typhoon’s center significantly affects the coastal inundation in the PRE. The inundation becomes very serious as the movement of the typhoon center was slow down. This study provides a new reference for future predictions of coastal inundations.

scholarly journals Advancing global storm surge modelling using the new ERA5 climate reanalysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1007-1021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Job C. M. Dullaart ◽  
Sanne Muis ◽  
Nadia Bloemendaal ◽  
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Recent Advances ◽  
Global Climate Modelling ◽  
Surge Height

Abstract This study examines the implications of recent advances in global climate modelling for simulating storm surges. Following the ERA-Interim (0.75° × 0.75°) global climate reanalysis, in 2018 the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts released its successor, the ERA5 (0.25° × 0.25°) reanalysis. Using the Global Tide and Surge Model, we analyse eight historical storm surge events driven by tropical—and extra-tropical cyclones. For these events we extract wind fields from the two reanalysis datasets and compare these against satellite-based wind field observations from the Advanced SCATterometer. The root mean squared errors in tropical cyclone wind speed reduce by 58% in ERA5, compared to ERA-Interim, indicating that the mean sea-level pressure and corresponding strong 10-m winds in tropical cyclones greatly improved from ERA-Interim to ERA5. For four of the eight historical events we validate the modelled storm surge heights with tide gauge observations. For Hurricane Irma, the modelled surge height increases from 0.88 m with ERA-Interim to 2.68 m with ERA5, compared to an observed surge height of 2.64 m. We also examine how future advances in climate modelling can potentially further improve global storm surge modelling by comparing the results for ERA-Interim and ERA5 against the operational Integrated Forecasting System (0.125° × 0.125°). We find that a further increase in model resolution results in a better representation of the wind fields and associated storm surges, especially for small size tropical cyclones. Overall, our results show that recent advances in global climate modelling have the potential to increase the accuracy of early-warning systems and coastal flood hazard assessments at the global scale.

scholarly journals Reconstruction of the track and a simulation of the storm surge associated with the calamitous typhoon affecting the Pearl River Estuary in September 1874

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-64
Author(s):  
Hing Yim Mok ◽  
Wing Hong Lui ◽  
Dick Shum Lau ◽  
Wang Chun Woo
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
South China Sea ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
South China ◽  
River Estuary ◽  
Pearl River Estuary ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
Pearl River ◽  
The Pearl River Estuary ◽  
The Pearl River

Abstract. A typhoon struck the Pearl River Estuary in September 1874 (“Typhoon 1874”), causing extensive damage and claiming thousands of lives in the region during its passage. Like many other historical typhoons, the deadliest impact of the typhoon was its associated storm surge. In this paper, a possible track of the typhoon was reconstructed through an analysis of the historical qualitative and quantitative weather observations in the Philippines, the northern part of the South China Sea, Hong Kong, Macao, and Guangdong recorded in various historical documents. The magnitudes of the associated storm surges and storm tides in Hong Kong and Macao were also quantitatively estimated using storm surge model and analogue astronomical tides based on the reconstructed track. The results indicated that the typhoon could have crossed the Luzon Strait from the western North Pacific and moved across the northeastern part of the South China Sea to strike the Pearl River Estuary more or less as a super typhoon in the early morning on 23 September 1874. The typhoon passed about 60 km south–southwest of Hong Kong and made landfall in Macao, bringing maximum storm tides of around 4.9 m above the Hong Kong Chart Datum (http://www.geodetic.gov.hk/smo/gsi/Data/pdf/explanatorynotes.pdf, last access: 3 January 2020) at the Victoria Harbour in Hong Kong and around 5.4 m above the Macao Chart Datum (https://mosref.dscc.gov.mo/Help/ref/Macaucoord_2009_web_EN_v201702.pdf, last access: 3 January 2020) at Porto Interior (inner harbour) in Macao. Both the maximum storm tide (4.88 m above the Hong Kong Chart Datum) and maximum storm surge (2.83 m) brought by Typhoon 1874 at the Victoria Harbour estimated in this study are higher than all the existing records since the establishment of the Hong Kong Observatory in 1883, including the recent records set by super typhoon Mangkhut on 16 September 2018.

scholarly journals Coastal Resilience Against Storm Surge from Tropical Cyclones

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 725
Author(s):  
Robert Mendelsohn ◽  
Liang Zheng
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The United States ◽  
Atlantic Seaboard ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Coastal Resilience

It is well known that seawalls are effective at stopping common storm surges in urban areas. This paper examines whether seawalls should be built to withstand the storm surge from a major tropical cyclone. We estimate the extra cost of building the wall tall enough to stop such surges and the extra flood benefit of this additional height. We estimate the surge probability distribution from six tidal stations spread along the Atlantic seaboard of the United States. We then measure how valuable the vulnerable buildings behind a 100 m wall must be to justify such a tall wall at each site. Combining information about the probability distribution of storm surge, the average elevation of protected buildings, and the damage rate at each building, we find that the value of protected buildings behind this 100 m wall must be in the hundreds of millions to justify the wall. We also examine the additional flood benefit and cost of protecting a km2 of land in nearby cities at each site. The density of buildings in coastal cities in the United States are generally more than an order of magnitude too low to justify seawalls this high. Seawalls are effective, but not at stopping the surge damage from major tropical cyclones.

scholarly journals Effects of Wave–Current Interaction on Storm Surge in the Pearl River Estuary: A Case Study of Super Typhoon Mangkhut

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhifa Luo ◽  
Bensheng Huang ◽  
Xiaohong Chen ◽  
Chao Tan ◽  
Jing Qiu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Spring Tide ◽  
River Estuary ◽  
Pearl River Estuary ◽  
Pearl River ◽  
Wave Setup ◽  
The Pearl River Estuary ◽  
Super Typhoon ◽  
The Pearl River

This study explored the effects of interactions between waves and current on storm surge in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) using a fully coupled wave–current model. The model was validated based on in situ observations during the traverse of super typhoon Mangkhut. The results indicated that the model could reproduce the storm surge and wave setup processes. Numerical experiments showed that simulations of storm surge are minimally affected by wave setup. The wave setup during super typhoon Mangkhut reached up to 0.23 m and contributed to the total near shore storm surge by up to 8%. The simulations of the coupled model showed a better correlation with observations compared to those of an uncoupled model. The storm surge increased with transport upstream in a tidal-dominated outlet, whereas it decreased in a river-dominated outlet. The storm surge and wave setup increased and decreased, respectively, during spring tide as compared to that during a neap tide. The storm surge increased with increasing runoff in the upper river reaches, whereas there was little change in the tidal-dominated lower river reaches. This research emphasizes the importance of integrating the effects of multiple dynamic factors in the forecasting of storm surge and provides a reference for similar studies in other estuaries with multiple outlets and a complex river network.

Compound impact of rainfall, tidal level and storm surge on flood risk from tropical cyclones in the coastal area of shanghai

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanqing Xu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Tidal Level ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The Impact

<p>Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme tropical cyclones has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. Coastal cities are particularly vulnerable to flood under multivariable conditions, such as heavy precipitation, high sea levels, and storms surge. In coastal areas, floods caused by rainstorms and storm surges have been one of the most costly and devastating natural hazards in coastal regions. Extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. Usually, extreme events such as tidal level, storm surges, precipitation occur jointly, leading to compound flood events with significantly higher hazards compared to the sum of the single extreme events. The purpose of this study is to improve our understanding of multiple drivers to compound flooding in shanghai. The Wind Enhance Scheme (WES) model characterized by Holland model is devised to generate wind "spiderweb" both for historical (1949-2018) and future (2031-2060, 2069-2098) tropical cyclones. The tidal level and storm surge model based on Delft3D-FLOW is employed with an unstructured grid to simulate the change of water level. For precipitation, maximum value between tropical cyclone events is selected. Following this, multivariate Copula model would be employed to compare the change of joint probability between tidal level, storm surge and heavy precipitation under climate change, taking into account sea-level rise and land subsidence. Finally, the impact of tropical cyclone on the joint risk of tidal, storm surge and heavy precipitation is investigated. </p>

The Practical Predictability of Storm Tide from Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (12) ◽  
pp. 5103-5121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathryn R. Fossell ◽  
David Ahijevych ◽  
Rebecca E. Morss ◽  
Chris Snyder ◽  
Chris Davis
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Translation Speed ◽  
Storm Tide ◽  
Coastal Inundation ◽  
Observational Uncertainty ◽  
Extensive Property ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

The potential for storm surge to cause extensive property damage and loss of life has increased urgency to more accurately predict coastal flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones. This work investigates the sensitivity of coastal inundation from storm tide (surge + tide) to four hurricane parameters—track, intensity, size, and translation speed—and the sensitivity of inundation forecasts to errors in forecasts of those parameters. An ensemble of storm tide simulations is generated for three storms in the Gulf of Mexico, by driving a storm surge model with best track data and systematically generated perturbations of storm parameters from the best track. The spread of the storm perturbations is compared to average errors in recent operational hurricane forecasts, allowing sensitivity results to be interpreted in terms of practical predictability of coastal inundation at different lead times. Two types of inundation metrics are evaluated: point-based statistics and spatially integrated volumes. The practical predictability of surge inundation is found to be limited foremost by current errors in hurricane track forecasts, followed by intensity errors, then speed errors. Errors in storm size can also play an important role in limiting surge predictability at short lead times, due to observational uncertainty. Results show that given current mean errors in hurricane forecasts, location-specific surge inundation is predictable for as little as 12–24 h prior to landfall, less for small-sized storms. The results also indicate potential for increased surge predictability beyond 24 h for large storms by considering a storm-following, volume-integrated metric of inundation.

scholarly journals Reconstruction of track and simulation of storm surge associated with the calamitous typhoon affecting the Pearl River Estuary in September 1874

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hing Yim Mok ◽  
Wing Hong Lui ◽  
Dick Shum Lau ◽  
Wang Chun Woo
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
South China Sea ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
South China ◽  
River Estuary ◽  
Pearl River Estuary ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
Pearl River ◽  
The Pearl River Estuary ◽  
The Pearl River

Abstract. A typhoon struck the Pearl River Estuary in September 1874 (the Typhoon 1874), causing extensive damages and claiming thousands of lives in the region during its passage. Like many other historical typhoons, the deadliest impact of the typhoon was its associated storm surge. In this paper, a possible track of the typhoon was reconstructed by analysis of the historical qualitative and quantitative weather observations in the Philippines, the northern part of the South China Sea, Hong Kong, Macao and Guangdong recorded in various historical documents. The magnitudes of the associated storm surges and storm tides in Hong Kong and Macao were also quantitatively estimated using storm surge model and analogue astronomical tides based on the reconstructed track. The results indicated that the typhoon could have crossed the Luzon Strait from the western North Pacific and moved across the northeastern part of the South China Sea to strike the Pearl River Estuary more or less as a super typhoon in the early morning on 23 September 1874. The typhoon passed about 60 km south-southwest of Hong Kong and made landfall in Macao, bringing maximum storm tides of around 4.9 m above the Hong Kong Chart Datum at the Victoria Harbour in Hong Kong and around 5.4 m above the Macao Chart Datum at Porto Interior (inner harbour) in Macao. Both the maximum storm tide (4.88 m above Hong Kong Chart Datum) and maximum storm surge (2.83 m) brought by Typhoon 1874 at the Victoria Harbour estimated in this study are higher than all the existing records since the establishment of the Hong Kong Observatory in 1883, including the recent records set by super typhoon Mangkhut on 16 September 2018.

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