scholarly journals Changes of sea waves characteristics in the Arctic basin from model ensemble simulations for the 21st century

Author(s):  
I I Mokhov ◽  
F A Pogarskiy
2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 683-692 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Goosse ◽  
E. Driesschaert ◽  
T. Fichefet ◽  
M.-F. Loutre

Abstract. The summer sea ice extent strongly decreased in the Arctic over the last decades. This decline is very likely to continue in the future but uncertainty of projections is very large. An ensemble of experiments with the climate model LOVECLIM using 5 different parameter sets has been performed to show that summer sea ice changes during the early Holocene (8 kyr BP) and the 21st century are strongly linked, allowing for the reduction of this uncertainty. Using the limited number of records presently available for the early Holocene, simulations presenting very large changes over the 21st century could reasonably be rejected. On the other hand, simulations displaying low to moderate changes during the second half of the 20th century (and also over the 21st century) are not consistent with recent observations. Using this very complementary information based on observations during both the early Holocene and the last decades, the most realistic projection with LOVECLIM indicates a nearly disappearance of the sea ice in summer at the end of the 21st century for a moderate increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results thus strongly indicate that additional proxy records of the early Holocene sea ice changes, in particular in the central Arctic Basin, would help to improve our projections of summer sea ice evolution and that the simulation at 8 kyr BP should be considered as a standard test for models aiming at simulating those future summer sea ice changes in the Arctic.


Author(s):  
Larisa A. Pautova ◽  
Vladimir A. Silkin ◽  
Marina D. Kravchishina ◽  
Valeriy G. Yakubenko ◽  
Anna L. Chultsova

The structure of the summer planktonic communities of the Northern part of the Barents sea in the first half of August 2017 were studied. In the sea-ice melting area, the average phytoplankton biomass producing upper 50-meter layer of water reached values levels of eutrophic waters (up to 2.1 g/m3). Phytoplankton was presented by diatoms of the genera Thalassiosira and Eucampia. Maximum biomass recorded at depths of 22–52 m, the absolute maximum biomass community (5,0 g/m3) marked on the horizon of 45 m (station 5558), located at the outlet of the deep trench Franz Victoria near the West coast of the archipelago Franz Josef Land. In ice-free waters, phytoplankton abundance was low, and the weighted average biomass (8.0 mg/m3 – 123.1 mg/m3) corresponded to oligotrophic waters and lower mesotrophic waters. In the upper layers of the water population abundance was dominated by small flagellates and picoplankton from, biomass – Arctic dinoflagellates (Gymnodinium spp.) and cold Atlantic complexes (Gyrodinium lachryma, Alexandrium tamarense, Dinophysis norvegica). The proportion of Atlantic species in phytoplankton reached 75%. The representatives of warm-water Atlantic complex (Emiliania huxleyi, Rhizosolenia hebetata f. semispina, Ceratium horridum) were recorded up to 80º N, as indicators of the penetration of warm Atlantic waters into the Arctic basin. The presence of oceanic Atlantic species as warm-water and cold systems in the high Arctic indicates the strengthening of processes of “atlantificacion” in the region.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 2864 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiping Liu ◽  
Yuanyuan Zhang ◽  
Xiao Cheng ◽  
Yongyun Hu

The accurate knowledge of spatial and temporal variations of snow depth over sea ice in the Arctic basin is important for understanding the Arctic energy budget and retrieving sea ice thickness from satellite altimetry. In this study, we develop and validate a new method for retrieving snow depth over Arctic sea ice from brightness temperatures at different frequencies measured by passive microwave radiometers. We construct an ensemble-based deep neural network and use snow depth measured by sea ice mass balance buoys to train the network. First, the accuracy of the retrieved snow depth is validated with observations. The results show the derived snow depth is in good agreement with the observations, in terms of correlation, bias, root mean square error, and probability distribution. Our ensemble-based deep neural network can be used to extend the snow depth retrieval from first-year sea ice (FYI) to multi-year sea ice (MYI), as well as during the melting period. Second, the consistency and discrepancy of snow depth in the Arctic basin between our retrieval using the ensemble-based deep neural network and two other available retrievals using the empirical regression are examined. The results suggest that our snow depth retrieval outperforms these data sets.


Author(s):  
Bian He ◽  
Xiaoqi Zhang ◽  
Anmin Duan ◽  
Qing Bao ◽  
Yimin Liu ◽  
...  

AbstractLarge-ensemble simulations of the atmosphere-only time-slice experiments for the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) were carried out by the model group of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS-f3-L). Eight groups of experiments forced by different combinations of the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) for pre-industrial, present-day, and future conditions were performed and published. The time-lag method was used to generate the 100 ensemble members, with each member integrating from 1 April 2000 to 30 June 2001 and the first two months as the spin-up period. The basic model responses of the surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation were documented. The results indicate that Arctic amplification is mainly caused by Arctic SIC forcing changes. The SAT responses to the Arctic SIC decrease alone show an obvious increase over high latitudes, which is similar to the results from the combined forcing of SST and SIC. However, the change in global precipitation is dominated by the changes in the global SST rather than SIC, partly because tropical precipitation is mainly driven by local SST changes. The uncertainty of the model responses was also investigated through the analysis of the large-ensemble members. The relative roles of SST and SIC, together with their combined influence on Arctic amplification, are also discussed. All of these model datasets will contribute to PAMIP multi-model analysis and improve the understanding of polar amplification.


1977 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 571-581 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming-Ko Woo ◽  
Philip Marsh

To evaluate the effect of tundra vegetation on limestone solution processes, the present study was carried out in a small basin in southwestern Ellesmere Island, N.W.T. A test reach was selected along the stream, and water samples were collected at regular intervals from a seepage point entering the reach, a soil water pit at the bottom of a vegetated slope along the test reach, and from the stream at the outlet of the reach. Hydrochemical characteristics of the samples were described by several measured and calculated variables including water temperature, pH, calcium and total hardness, bicarbonate concentration, equilibrium partial pressure of carbon dioxide, and indices of saturation with respect to calcite and dolomite. Throughout the growing season of 1975, all samples indicated higher concentrations in water hardness and in bicarbonate than those reported in nonvegetated areas of the Arctic. A rising trend was apparent in these data, with the concentrations reaching a seasonal maximum in late summer. These phenomena are attributed to the production of biogenic carbon dioxide, which increased the aggressiveness of the water. The partial pressure of carbon dioxide in soil water was directly increased by this process, while the addition of soil water to the stream caused noticeable downstream increase in partial pressure of carbon dioxide and a corresponding reduction in saturation with respect to calcite and to dolomite. The influence of vegetation was therefore very marked in both surface and in subsurface flows.


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