scholarly journals Probabilistic Modelling of Demographic Changes in Singapore’s Neighbourhoods

2021 ◽  
Vol 1203 (3) ◽  
pp. 032032
Author(s):  
Malik M Barakathullah ◽  
Elias Jakobus Willemse ◽  
Bige Tunçer ◽  
Roland Bouffanais
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
Female Partners ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Residential Units ◽  
Family Types ◽  
Dependent Parameter ◽  
Neighbourhood Scale

Abstract Predicting the temporal evolution of the demography and the residents’ spatial movements would immensely aid the estate development and urban planning. The evolution of population in three townships of Singapore is simulated at neighbourhood scale using a novel agent-based probabilistic approach with inputs from large-scale survey and statistical data. The demographic changes due to age-dependent rates of death and fertility are studied by considering the inter-ethnic marriages that has a varying probability depending on the ethnicities of the male and female partners. The predicted changes in the age and household compositions and family types have been found to reflect the population trends in Singapore over the past years. The decline in family types that contain children and the structure of age composition over years underline the issue of prevailing low fertility rates. The strategies for incorporating the population relocation to consider the long-term spatial movement are also discussed. In Singapore’s context, we consider in the relocation model an added complexity of ethnic quota for the residential units developed by public housing board. The ethnicity dependent parameter coupled with other parameters that represent the number of children in a household besides their size, the household income, the proximity of children’s schools, and the places of employment could play a strong role in predicting the spatial evolution of the residents. These predictions can be used by the urban planners and policy makers to improve the quality of life in Singapore.

scholarly journals Do Spousal Intimate Relationships Affect Fertility Intentions and Preferences?

2021 ◽  
pp. 0192513X2110160
Author(s):  
Amir Erfani ◽  
Roya Jahanbakhsh
Keyword(s):  
Intimate Relationships ◽  
Mate Selection ◽  
Risk Profile ◽  
Fertility Intentions ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Social Forces ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Ideal Number ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

The fertility influence of spousal intimate relationships is unknown. Drawing on the Giddens’s theory of transformation of intimacy, this study proposed a hypothesis that couples supporting egalitarian intimate relationships, with a greater risk profile attached to the relationship, and having less attachments to the external normative pressures shaping marital relations, are more likely to have low-fertility intentions and preferences. Using data from a self-administered pilot survey ( n = 375 prospective grooms and brides) designed by the authors, and employing multivariate regression models, we found that the lower attachment to external social forces in mate selection was associated with the lower ideal number of children, and those with a greater spousal relational egalitarianism and a higher risk profile attached to their relationships preferred lower number of children and were less likely to intend to have children after marriage. The study sheds new light on the determinants of low fertility.

scholarly journals Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning-Based Cardiac Arrhythmias Classification Model of Electrocardiogram Signals

Computers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 82
Author(s):  
Ahmad O. Aseeri
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Cardiac Arrhythmias ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Gating Mechanism ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Wide Range

Deep Learning-based methods have emerged to be one of the most effective and practical solutions in a wide range of medical problems, including the diagnosis of cardiac arrhythmias. A critical step to a precocious diagnosis in many heart dysfunctions diseases starts with the accurate detection and classification of cardiac arrhythmias, which can be achieved via electrocardiograms (ECGs). Motivated by the desire to enhance conventional clinical methods in diagnosing cardiac arrhythmias, we introduce an uncertainty-aware deep learning-based predictive model design for accurate large-scale classification of cardiac arrhythmias successfully trained and evaluated using three benchmark medical datasets. In addition, considering that the quantification of uncertainty estimates is vital for clinical decision-making, our method incorporates a probabilistic approach to capture the model’s uncertainty using a Bayesian-based approximation method without introducing additional parameters or significant changes to the network’s architecture. Although many arrhythmias classification solutions with various ECG feature engineering techniques have been reported in the literature, the introduced AI-based probabilistic-enabled method in this paper outperforms the results of existing methods in outstanding multiclass classification results that manifest F1 scores of 98.62% and 96.73% with (MIT-BIH) dataset of 20 annotations, and 99.23% and 96.94% with (INCART) dataset of eight annotations, and 97.25% and 96.73% with (BIDMC) dataset of six annotations, for the deep ensemble and probabilistic mode, respectively. We demonstrate our method’s high-performing and statistical reliability results in numerical experiments on the language modeling using the gating mechanism of Recurrent Neural Networks.

scholarly journals Statistical Downscaling of Daily Wind Speed Variations

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 660-675 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan C. Kirchmeier ◽  
David J. Lorenz ◽  
Daniel J. Vimont
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Gamma Distribution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Scale Parameters ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Distribution Shape ◽  
Realistic Information

AbstractThis study presents the development of a method to statistically downscale daily wind speed variations in an extended Great Lakes region. A probabilistic approach is used, predicting a daily-varying probability density function (PDF) of local-scale daily wind speed conditioned on large-scale daily wind speed predictors. Advantages of a probabilistic method are that it provides realistic information on the variance and extremes in addition to information on the mean, it allows the autocorrelation of downscaled realizations to be tuned to match the autocorrelation of local-scale observations, and it allows flexibility in the use of the final downscaled product. Much attention is given to fitting the proper functional form of the PDF by investigating the observed local-scale wind speed distribution (predictand) as a function of the decile of the large-scale wind (predictor). It is found that the local-scale standard deviation and the local-scale shape parameter (from a gamma distribution) are nonconstant functions of the large-scale predictor. As such, a vector generalized linear model is developed to relate the large-scale and local-scale wind speeds. Maximum likelihood and cross validation are used to fit local-scale gamma distribution shape and scale parameters to the large-scale wind speed. The result is a daily-varying probability distribution of local-scale wind speed, conditioned on the large-scale wind speed.

Disaster impacts in a port-city; learning from Beirut's  Port explosion

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steluta topalov
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Transportation System ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Social Dimension ◽  
Global Network ◽  
Port Cities ◽  
Residential Units ◽  
The Impact

<p>On 4 august 2020, one of the biggest non-nuclear explosions the world has seen in recent times took place in the Port of Beirut. Caused by the detonation of 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate, inadequate stored in a warehouse in the port, the blast destroyed much of the city’s port and the surrounding infrastructure and severly  damaged the dense residential and commercial areas within 5 km of the explosion site. The impact of the explosion, which registered as a 3.3 magnitude earthquake according to the U.S. Geological Survey, was felt as far away as the island of Cyprus.</p><p>Athough the event was an technological hazard, the impact of the explosion is similar to a standardised natural disaster.</p><p>According to UNDP, a total of 200 000 residential units were affected with an estimated of 40 000 buildings damaged; 200 people lost their lives, around 6 000 individuals were injuried and around 300 000 people were displaced.</p><p>Such figure are comparable to other large-scale disasters such as Cyclone Vayu in India, which occured in June 2019 or the displacement caused by the Typhoon Vongfong, in the Philippines.</p><p>The frequent increase of the natural disasters  puts pressure on the critical infrastructure of the cities. The disruption of the transportation system,  which is vital for the sustainable daily operations, are having a big impact on the economical, enviromental and social dimension of a city system. Among the various types of transportation system, ports are a focal point because of its strategic role for the economic growth of cities,regions and  global network. In addition, they are nodal points for the social and economical activity of the inhabitants.</p><p>Although the ports have played a key role in the development of their host cities, they are also vulnerable to a broad range of risks and threats because of a particular spatial character: the location at the intersection of land and sea.  </p><p>The study of the Beirut’s Port explosion examines the impact of port failures on the host urban enviroment and the relationship between hazards, vulnerability and the impact. The vulnerability of the port to disasters results  to the vulnerability of its host city. A context –based understanding  of the impact of the disaster and the elements at risk is essential to identify appropriate risk management strategies. The location of the port within the urban environment, in densely populated area, as in case of Beirut are some of the characteristics of the port cities that can magnify the impact of disasters to which they are prone.  The study will focus on a collection of data that records the impact and allows visualisation of the complex patterns of the disaster risk reduction.</p><p>The impact caused by the Beirut’s port explosion reminds us about the important role of the ports in their host cities and how fundamental is to identify the port’s infrastructure  exposure to hazards and risks.  Lessons learned from such event may be useful to reduce disaster risks in the port cities.</p>

Two-point similarity in temporally evolving plane wakes

2007 ◽  
Vol 577 ◽  
pp. 287-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. EWING ◽  
W. K. GEORGE ◽  
M. M. ROGERS ◽  
R. D. MOSER
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Single Point ◽  
Similarity Solutions ◽  
Similarity Analysis ◽  
Governing Equations ◽  
Large Scale Structures ◽  
Rate Dependent ◽  
Dependent Parameter ◽  
Scale Structures ◽  
Point Velocity

The governing equations for the two-point correlations of the turbulent fluctuating velocity in the temporally evolving wake were analysed to determine whether they could have equilibrium similarity solutions. It was found that these equations could have such solutions for a finite-Reynolds-number wake, where the two-point velocity correlations could be written as a product of a time-dependent scale and a function dependent only on similarity variables. It is therefore possible to collapse the two-point measures of all the scales of motions in the temporally evolving wake using a single set of similarity variables. As in an earlier single-point analysis, it was found that the governing equations for the equilibrium similarity solutions could not be reduced to a form that was independent of a growth-rate dependent parameter. Thus, there is not a single ‘universal’ solution that describes the state of the large-scale structures, so that the large-scale structures in the far field may depend on how the flow is generated.The predictions of the similarity analysis were compared to the data from two direct numerical simulations of the temporally evolving wakes examined previously. It was found that the two-point velocity spectra of these temporally evolving wakes collapsed reasonably well over the entire range of scales when they were scaled in the manner deduced from the equilibrium similarity analysis. Thus, actual flows do seem to evolve in a manner consistent with the equilibrium similarity solutions.

scholarly journals KASUS KELAHIRAN YANG TIDAK DIINGINKAN DI DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA ANALISIS DATA SDKI 1991

Populasi ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helly Prajitno Soetjipto ◽  
Sukamdi Sukamdi
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Family Planning Program ◽  
Married Women ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Planning Program ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Ideal Number ◽  
The Relationship

This study is intended to pursue the previous attempts in examining the relationship between low fertility regime and the case of births which had been delivered unintendedly in Yogyakarta. Using an unweighted sample of 575 married women in the Indonesian Demographic and Health Survey 1991, this study found that 75 cases out of 474 last birth children were bom unintendedly (beyond the range of ideal number of children). Most of the 75 cases were bom by women who have 2 or 3 ideal number of children and by a devoted Family Planning acceptors. Most of the women have limited accesses in education and economic activities. The case of unwantednes were found predominantly among women older than 25 years. Even though only a tentative findings, this study shed some light to the fact that Family Planning program to some extent may contribute to the rate of unwantedness. Apolicy is needed especially in reducing the risk of unwantedness among the low-income women.

scholarly journals Work and fertility in Taiwan: How women’s and men’s career sequences associate with fertility outcomes?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen-Hao Hsu
Keyword(s):  
Lower Number ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Related Research ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Career Trajectories ◽  
The World ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
And Gender

There has been much debate over the micro-level relationship between employment situations and fertility in Europe and Northern America. However, related research in East Asia is scant, although countries in this region have some of the lowest fertility rates in the world. Moreover, most studies analyze the employment-fertility relationship from a static perspective and only for women, which underemphasizes life-course dynamics and gender heterogeneity of employment careers and their fertility implications. Drawing on retrospective data from the 2017 Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSCS), this study explores women’s and men’s career trajectories between ages 18 and 40 in Taiwan using sequence cluster analyses. It also examines how career variations associate with different timing and quantum of birth. Empirical results show that economically inactive women experience faster motherhood transitions and have more children by age 40 than women with stable full-time careers. For men, having an unstable career associates with slower fatherhood transitions and a lower number of children. For both genders, self-employed people are the earliest in parenthood transitions and have the highest number of children by midlife. Our findings demonstrate sharp gender contrasts in employment careers and their diversified fertility implications in low-fertility Taiwan

scholarly journals Reducing measles mortality in India

eLife ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anindya Sekhar Bose
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Number Of Children

A large-scale campaign to promote measles vaccinations has substantially reduced the number of children dying from the disease in India.

Female genital mutilation (FGM) in UK children: a review of a dedicated paediatric service for FGM

2020 ◽  
Vol 105 (11) ◽  
pp. 1075-1078 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sakaria Ali ◽  
Roshnee Patel ◽  
Alice Jane Armitage ◽  
Hazel Isabella Learner ◽  
Sarah M Creighton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Female Genital Mutilation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Clinical Findings ◽  
Genital Mutilation ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Looked After Children ◽  
Paediatric Service ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Female Genital

ObjectiveTo describe the presentation and management of children with suspected or confirmed female genital mutilation (FGM) referred to a specialist paediatric clinic.MethodsData collected included referral source, age, ethnicity, circumstances of FGM and clinical findings in accordance with the WHO FGM classification.ResultsBetween September 2014 and January 2019, 148 children attended the clinic of whom 55 (37.2%) had confirmed FGM. Police or social care referred 112 (76%) children. The proportion of looked-after children (LAC) was significantly higher in the group with confirmed FGM (17/55, 31%) compared with children where FGM was not confirmed (5/93, 5%). In almost all children where FGM was confirmed, FGM was initially disclosed by the child or family (53/55, 96%) and of these 48/55 (87%) underwent FGM prior to UK entry. The remaining seven cases were British children, potentially meeting legal criteria under the FGM Act, and one resulted in a successful prosecution.ConclusionsThe number of children with FGM was significantly lower than expected based on UK prevalence estimates. Most children had undergone FGM prior to UK entry, and the majority of cases were initially disclosed by the child or family themselves. These results reflect the lack of large-scale proof of the practice of FGM in the UK and are consistent with growing evidence of the abandonment of FGM among communities after migration.

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