Societal Impacts of Flood Hazards

Author(s):  
Philip Bubeck ◽  
Antje Otto ◽  
Juergen Weichselgartner

Floods remain the most devastating natural hazard globally, despite substantial investments in flood prevention and management in recent decades. Fluvial floods, such as the ones in Pakistan in 2010 and Thailand in 2011, can affect entire countries and cause severe economic and human losses. Also, coastal floods can inflict substantial harm owing to their destructive forces in terms of wave and tidal energy. A flood type that received growing attention in recent years is flooding from pluvial events (heavy rainfall). Even though these are locally confined, their sudden onset and unpredictability pose a danger to areas that are generally not at risk from flooding. In the future, it is projected that flood risk will increase in many regions both because of the effects of global warming on the hydrological cycle and the continuing concentration of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas. Floods have a large variety of societal impacts that span across space and time. While some of these impacts are obvious and have been well researched, others are more subtle and less is known about their complex processes and long-term effects. The most immediate and apparent impact of floods is direct damage caused by physical contact between floodwaters and economic assets, cultural heritage, or human beings, with the result for humans being injuries and deaths. Direct flood damage can amount to billions of US dollars for single events, such as the floods in the Danube and Elbe catchment in Central Europe in 2002 and 2013. More indirect economic implications are the losses that occur outside of the flood event in space and time, such as losses due to business disruption. The flood in Thailand in 2011, for instance, resulted in a lack of auto parts supplies and consequently the shutdown of car manufacturing within and outside the flood zone. Floods also have long-term indirect impacts on flood-affected people and communities. Experiencing property damage and losing important personal belongings can have a negative psychological effect on flood victims. Much less is known about this type of flood impact: how long do these impacts last? What makes some people or communities recover faster than others from financial losses and emotional stress? Moreover, flood impacts are not equally distributed across different groups of society. Often, poor, elderly, and marginalized societal groups are particularly vulnerable to the effects of flooding inasmuch as these groups generally have little social, human, and financial coping capacities. In many countries, women regularly bear a disproportionately high burden because of their societal status. Finally, severe floods often provide so-called windows of opportunities, enabling rapid policy change, resulting in new flood risk management policies. Such newly adopted policy arrangements can lead to societal conflicts over issues of interests, equity, and fairness. For instance, flood events often trigger large-scale investment in flood defense infrastructure, which are associated with high construction costs. Although these costs are usually borne by the taxpayer, often only a small proportion of society shares in their benefits. In addition, societal conflict can arise concerning where to build structural measures; what impacts these measures have on the ground regarding economic development potentials, different kinds of uses, and nature protection; and which effects are expected downstream. In such controversies, issues of participation and decision making are central and often highly contested. While floods are usually associated with negative societal impacts in industrialized countries, they also have beneficial impacts on nature and society. In many parts of the world, the livelihood of millions of people depends on the recurring occurrence of flooding. For instance, farming communities in or near floodplains rely upon regular floodwaters that carry nutrients and sediments, enriching the soil and making it fertile for cultivation.

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liren Wei ◽  
Duoying Ji ◽  
Chiyuan Miao ◽  
John C. Moore

Abstract. Flood risk is projected to increase under projections of future warming climates due to an enhanced hydrological cycle. Solar geoengineering is known to reduce precipitation and slowdown the hydrological cycle, and may be therefore be expected to offset increased flood risk. We examine this hypothesis using streamflow and river discharge responses to the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G4 experiments. We also calculate changes in 30, 50, 100-year flood return periods relative to the historical (1960–1999) period under the RCP4.5 and G4 scenarios. Similar spatial patterns are produced for each return period, although those under G4 are closer to historical values than under RCP4.5. Under G4 generally lower streamflows are produced on the western sides of Eurasia and North America, with higher flows on their eastern sides. In the southern hemisphere northern parts of the land masses have lower streamflow under G4, and southern parts increases relative to RCP4.5. So in general solar geoengineering does appear to reduce flood risk in most regions, but the relative effects are largely determined by this large scale geographic pattern. Both streamflow and return period show increased drying of the Amazon under both RCP4.5 and G4 scenarios, with more drying under G4.


2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (21) ◽  
pp. 16033-16050 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liren Wei ◽  
Duoying Ji ◽  
Chiyuan Miao ◽  
Helene Muri ◽  
John C. Moore

Abstract. Flood risk is projected to increase under future warming climates due to an enhanced hydrological cycle. Solar geoengineering is known to reduce precipitation and slow down the hydrological cycle and may therefore be expected to offset increased flood risk. We examine this hypothesis using streamflow and river discharge responses to Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G4 scenarios. Compared with RCP4.5, streamflow on the western sides of Eurasia and North America is increased under G4, while the eastern sides see a decrease. In the Southern Hemisphere, the northern parts of landmasses have lower streamflow under G4, and streamflow of southern parts increases relative to RCP4.5. We furthermore calculate changes in 30-, 50-, and 100-year flood return periods relative to the historical (1960–1999) period under the RCP4.5 and G4 scenarios. Similar spatial patterns are produced for each return period, although those under G4 are closer to historical values than under RCP4.5. Hence, in general, solar geoengineering does appear to reduce flood risk in most regions, but the overall effects are largely determined by this large-scale geographic pattern. Although G4 stratospheric aerosol geoengineering ameliorates the Amazon drying under RCP4.5, with a weak increase in soil moisture, the decreased runoff and streamflow leads to an increased flood return period under G4 compared with RCP4.5.


Geography ◽  
2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Golub

Automobility is a conceptual framework developed to understand the personal, social, political, cultural, geographical, and technical systems shaping, and shaped by, the automobile. At its core, the automobility system is the hub of numerous interdependencies and relationships between the larger society and the automobile. The automobility literature synthesizes scholarship from a wide range of fields necessary to understand these diverse but interlocking systems, including history, geography, public policy, planning, behavior, psychology, anthropology, culture and communication, and economics and finance, among many others. Automobility contextualizes the role of the automobile as a powerful and central driver of complex and diverse processes, creating new materialities across space and time. Automobility describes a social arrangement where the automobile system dominates and transforms almost everything in its path—one’s personal sense of self, identity, and mobility; relationships between human beings; the boundaries of public and private; and the broader social, cultural, and political forces at larger scales. Systems affected by the automobililty system become malformed by it, each moment then favoring it even more in a vicious cycle, while rejecting or destroying those systems incompatible with it. Automobility explores a society dispersed across space and time, forcing its subjects into a particular mode of being, seemingly free, but now saddled by the various demands of the automobile. For those not able to participate, automobility excludes, as opportunities become even more inaccessible by anything other than an automobile. These forces of inclusion and exclusion exacerbate existing social processes of discrimination, such as gender, racial and class divisions, and segregation. Furthermore, automobility implicates a vast process of urbanization; land conversion for automobile-related uses; and related environmental impacts like resource consumption, pollution, and climate change across a range of scales from the local to the global, from immediate to long-term.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deep Bhattacharjee

We are all connected globally. Communication, transportation and convenience have made the notion of distance very small irrespective of large barriers through space and time. However, the time has come for the humans to realize the ‘pitfall’ of this global connectedness as this opens a doorway paving the humans vulnerable to a lot of deadly diseases some of which can be triggered into a new human by just a tiny touch or physical contact. Humans should be aware of this connectedness as because it is this connectedness which can ensure the spreading of deadly diseases unbounded. Irrespective of checking every means of physical communications, it has been found that its quite difficult to control the spreading of diseases globally and this results in an epidemic with uncontrolled deaths and sickness. In this paper what exactly I have been trying to show is that, a simple numerical calculation yields the spread and flow of diseases as well as a means of control of the same if can be implemented correctly. However, I’m saying that this is not totally accurate but accurate to some extent which is within the boundary of implementation of human beings. Therefore, the main objective of this paper lies in a mere mathematical extent of the physical world of the spreading of diseases showing how a ‘non-exponential growth’ can lead to ‘exponential growth’ which again subsides to ‘non-exponential growths’ in a particular duration of time. The prevention parameters have also been computed mathematically at the end. Amid an outbreak, it has been the ability of a virus to mutate over time by resisting against the known medicines and immunities. Therefore, the virus can jump from ‘one level’ to a ‘higher level’, if the epidemic lasts for long. Therefore, in case of mutation, there are probabilities or ‘more probabilities’ of the virus getting stronger in time, however we can’t ignore the idea of 2 similar probabilities that the virus can ‘either remain in a same state or level, or may become weaker’ in time. This needs to be addressed while writing a paper about ‘an outbreak amid an epidemic and its parameters for precautions’ and this will be reflected in this paper as a probability functions.


Author(s):  
MD Jahedul Alam ◽  
Muhammad Ahsanul Habib

This study develops an integrated microsimulation-based evacuation model that performs a vulnerability assessment of the Halifax Peninsula, Canada during an evacuation. The proposed framework of vulnerability assessment accounts for long-term changes in neighborhood composition in relation to socio-demographic characteristics, residential locations, and vehicle ownership. The results of a large-scale urban systems model and a flood risk model are used to inform the vulnerability assessment. The urban systems model encapsulates long-term household decisions and life stage transitions in measuring social vulnerability. The flood risk model provides information on flood severity and finer network disruptions. In addition, a dynamic traffic assignment-based microsimulation model is developed to assess mobility vulnerability during an evacuation. One of the key contributions of this study is that it utilizes a Bayesian Belief Network modeling approach for vulnerability assessment, while addressing uncertainty and causal relationships between different elements of vulnerability. The results suggest that the Peninsula zones are at a relatively higher risk from a mobility point of view. A sensitivity analysis reveals that clearance time has been found to be the key determinant of the mobility vulnerability during an evacuation. “Presence of female” and “presence of seniors” are found as the two most significant contributors of social vulnerability. Several peripheral zones are at a higher risk because of their proximity to the flood source. The proposed research will help emergency professionals and engineers to develop effective evacuation plans in relation to vulnerable areas.


2022 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serena Ceola ◽  
Alessio Domeneghetti ◽  
Guy J. P. Schumann

River floods are one of the most devastating extreme hydrological events, with oftentimes remarkably negative effects for human society and the environment. Economic losses and social consequences, in terms of affected people and human fatalities, are increasing worldwide due to climate change and urbanization processes. Long-term dynamics of flood risk are intimately driven by the temporal evolution of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Although needed for effective flood risk management, a comprehensive long-term analysis of all these components is not straightforward, mostly due to a lack of hydrological data, exposure information, and large computational resources required for 2-D flood model simulations at adequately high resolution over large spatial scales. This study tries to overcome these limitations and attempts to investigate the dynamics of different flood risk components in the Murray-Darling basin (MDB, Australia) in the period 1973–2014. To this aim, the LISFLOOD-FP model, i.e., a large-scale 2-D hydrodynamic model, and satellite-derived built-up data are employed. Results show that the maximum extension of flooded areas decreases in time, without revealing any significant geographical transfer of inundated areas across the study period. Despite this, a remarkable increment of built-up areas characterizes MDB, with larger annual increments across not-flooded locations compared to flooded areas. When combining flood hazard and exposure, we find that the overall extension of areas exposed to high flood risk more than doubled within the study period, thus highlighting the need for improving flood risk awareness and flood mitigation strategies in the near future.


Author(s):  
Jeffrey E. Huber

Over the next 100 years, nothing will radically change thecoastal built environment more than climate change and sea level rise. The coastal zone is home to some of our country’s most valuable ecological and socio-economic assets. Many of these locations are being demonstrably transformed dueto large-scale human and biophysical processes. The result is a potential loss of myriad ecosystem services such as storm protection, wildlife habitat, recreation and aesthetics, among others. Policy and design solutions are not truly consideringthe necessary transformation that will be required to live and work within a saturated coastal environment. The old paradigm of flood management and control will need tochange from prevention to acceptance and population will decline as businesses and individuals decide the costs are too high. The need for developing a long-term urban design and planning framework that adapts to these effects is critical. More specifically, there is a need for a “systems” approach that utilizes urban design and takes into consideration infrastructure impacts, future investments, and insurability of risk as long-term objectives to address potential impacts from both coastal flooding and rising sea levels, while at the same time guiding communities’ future land use and investment plans.


1994 ◽  
Vol 144 ◽  
pp. 29-33
Author(s):  
P. Ambrož

AbstractThe large-scale coronal structures observed during the sporadically visible solar eclipses were compared with the numerically extrapolated field-line structures of coronal magnetic field. A characteristic relationship between the observed structures of coronal plasma and the magnetic field line configurations was determined. The long-term evolution of large scale coronal structures inferred from photospheric magnetic observations in the course of 11- and 22-year solar cycles is described.Some known parameters, such as the source surface radius, or coronal rotation rate are discussed and actually interpreted. A relation between the large-scale photospheric magnetic field evolution and the coronal structure rearrangement is demonstrated.


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