An Insight into the global ‘spreading’ of a disease amid an epidemic with ‘mutation’ and ‘prevention’ parameters

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deep Bhattacharjee
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Calculation ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Physical World ◽  
Physical Contact ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Probability Functions ◽  
Space And Time ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Over Time

We are all connected globally. Communication, transportation and convenience have made the notion of distance very small irrespective of large barriers through space and time. However, the time has come for the humans to realize the ‘pitfall’ of this global connectedness as this opens a doorway paving the humans vulnerable to a lot of deadly diseases some of which can be triggered into a new human by just a tiny touch or physical contact. Humans should be aware of this connectedness as because it is this connectedness which can ensure the spreading of deadly diseases unbounded. Irrespective of checking every means of physical communications, it has been found that its quite difficult to control the spreading of diseases globally and this results in an epidemic with uncontrolled deaths and sickness. In this paper what exactly I have been trying to show is that, a simple numerical calculation yields the spread and flow of diseases as well as a means of control of the same if can be implemented correctly. However, I’m saying that this is not totally accurate but accurate to some extent which is within the boundary of implementation of human beings. Therefore, the main objective of this paper lies in a mere mathematical extent of the physical world of the spreading of diseases showing how a ‘non-exponential growth’ can lead to ‘exponential growth’ which again subsides to ‘non-exponential growths’ in a particular duration of time. The prevention parameters have also been computed mathematically at the end. Amid an outbreak, it has been the ability of a virus to mutate over time by resisting against the known medicines and immunities. Therefore, the virus can jump from ‘one level’ to a ‘higher level’, if the epidemic lasts for long. Therefore, in case of mutation, there are probabilities or ‘more probabilities’ of the virus getting stronger in time, however we can’t ignore the idea of 2 similar probabilities that the virus can ‘either remain in a same state or level, or may become weaker’ in time. This needs to be addressed while writing a paper about ‘an outbreak amid an epidemic and its parameters for precautions’ and this will be reflected in this paper as a probability functions.

Population Control: Natural versus Human

1993 ◽  
Author(s):  
Garrett Hardin
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Homo Sapiens ◽  
Population Control ◽  
Single Species ◽  
The Self ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
The Gift ◽  
Functional Equivalent ◽  
Level Of Living ◽  
Over Time

Were we able to talk with other animals, it is extremely unlikely that we should hear them debating the problem of population control. They don't need to debate: nature solves the problem for them. And what is the problem? Simply this: to keep a successful species from being too successful. To keep it from eating itself out of house and home. And the solution? Simply predation and disease, which play the role that human beings might label "providence." As far as the written record reveals, no one recognized the self-elimination of a species as a potential problem for animals until the danger had become suspected among human beings. One of the earliest descriptions of this population problem for other animals was given by the Reverend Joseph Townsend, an English geologist. His key contribution was published in 1786, twelve years before Malthus's celebrated essay (Box 25-1). Townsend was dependent upon others for the outline of his story, and there is some question as to whether the details are historically correct. But the thrust of the story must be true: a single species (goats, in this case) exploiting a resource (plants) cannot, by itself, maintain a stable equilibrium at a comfortable level of living. The animals will either die after eating up all the food, or their numbers will fluctuate painfully. (Details differ, depending on the species and the environment.) Stability and prosperity require that the gift of exponential growth be opposed by some sort of countervailing force (predatory dogs, in Townsend's example). However deplorable predators may be for individuals who happen to be captured and eaten, for the prey population as a whole predators are (over time) a blessing. With millions of different species of animals there are many different particular explanations of how they manage to persist for thousands or millions of years. The species we are most interested in is, of course, Homo sapiens. A meditation on Townsend's account led to a challenging set of questions. "If all this great earth be no more than the Island of Juan Fernandes, and if we are the goats, how can we live "the good life" without a functional equivalent of the dogs? Must we create and sustain our own dogs? Can we do so, consciously? And if we can, what manner of beast will they be?"

scholarly journals The Metaphorical Use of Collocations: A Corpus-Based Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Yanqin Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Physical World ◽  
English Word ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Conceptual Metaphors ◽  
Bodily Experience ◽  
Efl Learners ◽  
The World ◽  
British National Corpus ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
National Corpus

The meanings of collocations, which have been accepted as an abstraction at the syntagmatic level, may have been defined by the way human beings conceptualize the world. The patterns in the use of the English word “contain” are summarized using the British National Corpus and an attempt is made to use conceptual metaphors to interpret how these patterns came into being and how they could have derived from human beings’ earliest bodily experience in the physical world. Such insight into English collocations may help improve the teaching of collocations to EFL learners.

scholarly journals Ageing across Space and Time: Exploring Concepts of Ageing and Identity in the Female Ensemble Dramas Tenko and Call the Midwife

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 179-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ros Jennings
Keyword(s):  
British Politics ◽  
Space And Time ◽  
Gendered Identities ◽  
Women's Identity ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Historical Periods ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Over Time ◽  
The Way

This article focuses on two female ensemble dramas Tenko (BBC/Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 1981–5) and Call the Midwife (BBC, 2012–) and uses an ageing studies lens to explore the way that the ensemble format provides a particularly rich insight into the relationship between women, ageing and understandings of women's identity over time. The two dramas provide complex and evocative links between the spaces and times of British politics, culture and society in different historical periods enabling a highly nuanced engagement with the ideological constructions of concepts of age and women's gendered identities.

Societal Impacts of Flood Hazards

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Bubeck ◽  
Antje Otto ◽  
Juergen Weichselgartner
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Physical Contact ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Space And Time ◽  
Societal Impacts ◽  
Economic Assets

Floods remain the most devastating natural hazard globally, despite substantial investments in flood prevention and management in recent decades. Fluvial floods, such as the ones in Pakistan in 2010 and Thailand in 2011, can affect entire countries and cause severe economic and human losses. Also, coastal floods can inflict substantial harm owing to their destructive forces in terms of wave and tidal energy. A flood type that received growing attention in recent years is flooding from pluvial events (heavy rainfall). Even though these are locally confined, their sudden onset and unpredictability pose a danger to areas that are generally not at risk from flooding. In the future, it is projected that flood risk will increase in many regions both because of the effects of global warming on the hydrological cycle and the continuing concentration of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas. Floods have a large variety of societal impacts that span across space and time. While some of these impacts are obvious and have been well researched, others are more subtle and less is known about their complex processes and long-term effects. The most immediate and apparent impact of floods is direct damage caused by physical contact between floodwaters and economic assets, cultural heritage, or human beings, with the result for humans being injuries and deaths. Direct flood damage can amount to billions of US dollars for single events, such as the floods in the Danube and Elbe catchment in Central Europe in 2002 and 2013. More indirect economic implications are the losses that occur outside of the flood event in space and time, such as losses due to business disruption. The flood in Thailand in 2011, for instance, resulted in a lack of auto parts supplies and consequently the shutdown of car manufacturing within and outside the flood zone. Floods also have long-term indirect impacts on flood-affected people and communities. Experiencing property damage and losing important personal belongings can have a negative psychological effect on flood victims. Much less is known about this type of flood impact: how long do these impacts last? What makes some people or communities recover faster than others from financial losses and emotional stress? Moreover, flood impacts are not equally distributed across different groups of society. Often, poor, elderly, and marginalized societal groups are particularly vulnerable to the effects of flooding inasmuch as these groups generally have little social, human, and financial coping capacities. In many countries, women regularly bear a disproportionately high burden because of their societal status. Finally, severe floods often provide so-called windows of opportunities, enabling rapid policy change, resulting in new flood risk management policies. Such newly adopted policy arrangements can lead to societal conflicts over issues of interests, equity, and fairness. For instance, flood events often trigger large-scale investment in flood defense infrastructure, which are associated with high construction costs. Although these costs are usually borne by the taxpayer, often only a small proportion of society shares in their benefits. In addition, societal conflict can arise concerning where to build structural measures; what impacts these measures have on the ground regarding economic development potentials, different kinds of uses, and nature protection; and which effects are expected downstream. In such controversies, issues of participation and decision making are central and often highly contested. While floods are usually associated with negative societal impacts in industrialized countries, they also have beneficial impacts on nature and society. In many parts of the world, the livelihood of millions of people depends on the recurring occurrence of flooding. For instance, farming communities in or near floodplains rely upon regular floodwaters that carry nutrients and sediments, enriching the soil and making it fertile for cultivation.

Dualities, Dialectics, and Paradoxes in Organizational Life

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Systems ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Organizational Studies ◽  
Organizational Life ◽  
Organizational Processes ◽  
Organization Studies ◽  
Process Studies ◽  
Convergence And Divergence ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Over Time

Organizational contradictions and process studies offer interwoven and complementary insights. Studies of dialectics, paradox, and dualities depict organizational contradictions that are oppositional as well as interrelated such that they persistently morph and shift over time. Studies of process often examine how contradictions fuel emergent, dynamic systems and stimulate novelty, adaptation, and transformation. Drawing from rich conversations at the Eighth International Symposium on Process Organization Studies, the contributors to this volume unpack these relationships in more depth. The chapters explore three main, connected themes through both conceptual and empirical studies, including (1) offering insight into how process theorizing advances understandings of organizational contradictions; (2) shedding light on how dialectics, paradoxes, and dualities fuel organizational processes that affect persistence and transformation; and (3) exploring the convergence and divergence of dialectics, paradox, and dualities lenses. Taken together, this book offers key insights in order to inform persistent, contradictory dynamics in organizations and organizational studies.

The Oxford Handbook of the Brazilian Economy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Direct Investment ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Iron Ore ◽  
Structural Features ◽  
Economic Importance ◽  
Closed Economy ◽  
Current Characteristics ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Contemporary Context ◽  
Over Time

Brazil constitutes a globally vital but troubled economy. It accounts for the largest GDP in Latin America and ranks among the world’s largest exporters of critical commodities including iron ore, soya, coffee, and beef. In recent years Brazil’s global economic importance has been magnified by a surge in both outward and inward foreign direct investment. This has served to further internationalize what has been historically a relatively closed economy. The purpose of this Handbook is to offer real insight into the Brazil’s economic development in contemporary context, understanding its most salient characteristics and analyzing its structural features across various dimensions. At a more granular level, this volume accomplishes the following tasks. First, it provides an understanding of the economy’s evolution over time and the connection of its current characteristics to this evolution. Second, it analyzes Brazil’s broader place in the global economy, and considers the ways in which this role has changed, and is likely to change, over coming years. Third, reflecting contemporary concerns, the volume offers an understanding, not only of how one of the world’s key economies has developed and transformed itself, but also of the ways in which this process has yet to be completed. The volume thus analyzes the current challenges facing the Brazilian economy and the kinds of issues that need to be tackled for these to be addressed.

scholarly journals Joint Action without Mutual Beliefs

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giacomo Figà Talamanca
Keyword(s):  
Social Cognition ◽  
Joint Action ◽  
Common Ground ◽  
Mental States ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Cooperative Hunting ◽  
Mutual Awareness ◽  
Shared Practice ◽  
State Of Affairs ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Joint action among human beings is characterized by using elaborate cognitive feats, such as representing the mental states of others about a certain state of affairs. It is still debated how these capacities evolved in the hominid lineage. I suggest that the consolidation of a shared practice over time can foster the predictability of other’s behavior. This might facilitate the evolutionary passage from inferring what others might know by simply seeing them and what they are viewing towards a mutual awareness of each other’s beliefs. I will examine the case for cooperative hunting in one chimpanzee community and argue that it is evidence that they have the potential to achieve common ground, suggesting that the consolidation of a practice might have supported the evolution of higher social cognition in the hominid lineage.

scholarly journals Detecting bursty terms in computer science research

2019 ◽  
Vol 122 (1) ◽  
pp. 681-699 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Tattershall ◽  
G. Nenadic ◽  
R. D. Stevens
Keyword(s):  
Computer Science ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Detection Algorithm ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
Free Text ◽  
Research Topics ◽  
Computer Science Research ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Over Time

AbstractResearch topics rise and fall in popularity over time, some more swiftly than others. The fastest rising topics are typically called bursts; for example “deep learning”, “internet of things” and “big data”. Being able to automatically detect and track bursty terms in the literature could give insight into how scientific thought evolves over time. In this paper, we take a trend detection algorithm from stock market analysis and apply it to over 30 years of computer science research abstracts, treating the prevalence of each term in the dataset like the price of a stock. Unlike previous work in this domain, we use the free text of abstracts and titles, resulting in a finer-grained analysis. We report a list of bursty terms, and then use historical data to build a classifier to predict whether they will rise or fall in popularity in the future, obtaining accuracy in the region of 80%. The proposed methodology can be applied to any time-ordered collection of text to yield past and present bursty terms and predict their probable fate.

Decomposition of Growth Curves into Growth Rate and Acceleration: a Novel Procedure to Monitor Bacterial Growth and the Time-Dependent Effect of Antimicrobials

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Luisa Navarro-Pérez ◽  
M. Coronada Fernández-Calderón ◽  
Virginia Vadillo-Rodríguez
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Bacterial Growth ◽  
Time Course ◽  
Antimicrobial Agents ◽  
Numerical Procedure ◽  
Growth Curves ◽  
Predictive Microbiology ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Over Time

In this paper, a simple numerical procedure is presented to monitor the growth of Streptococcus sanguinis over time in the absence and presence of propolis, a natural antimicrobial. In particular, it is shown that the real-time decomposition of growth curves obtained through optical density measurements into growth rate and acceleration can be a powerful tool to precisely assess a large range of key parameters [ i.e. lag time ( t 0 ), starting growth rate ( γ 0 ), initial acceleration of the growth ( a 0 ), maximum growth rate ( γ max ), maximum acceleration ( a max ) and deceleration ( a min ) of the growth and the total number of cells at the beginning of the saturation phase ( N s )] that can be readily used to fully describe growth over time. Consequently, the procedure presented provides precise data of the time course of the different growth phases and features, which is expected to be relevant, for instance, to thoroughly evaluate the effect of new antimicrobial agents. It further provides insight into predictive microbiology, likely having important implications to assumptions adopted in mathematical models to predict the progress of bacterial growth. Importance: The new and simple numerical procedure presented in this paper to analyze bacterial growth will possibly allow identifying true differences in efficacy among antimicrobial drugs for their applications in human health, food security, and environment, among others. It further provides insight into predictive microbiology, likely helping in the development of proper mathematical models to predict the course of bacterial growth under diverse circumstances.

Nubian Texts, Nubian Lives

2021 ◽  
pp. 771-786
Author(s):  
Giovanni R. Ruffini
Keyword(s):  
Economic History ◽  
World History ◽  
Valuable Insight ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Literary Genres ◽  
State Centralization ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Flow Over Time ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Ebb And Flow

Nubian texts provide valuable insight into Nubian social and economic history. Accounts reveal economic priorities both secular and sacred. Documentary evidence hints at the nature of state centralization and the movement of goods and coins in and out of Nubia. Magic reveals Nubia’s deep-seated hopes and fears. Literature shows innovative theology and Nubia’s sense of its place in world history. Funerary inscriptions record the careers of the elite and their sense of their own place in the cosmos. But much is missing from the Nubian textual record as well, suggesting that major literary genres never indigenized in Nubia the way they did in Egypt or Ethiopia. Other genres ebb and flow over time, hinting at the economy of Nubian literacy and the processes through which it ultimately dies.

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