scholarly journals Prediction for cardiac prognosis in patients with congestive heart failure by machine learning on dual-isotope myocardial semiconductor SPECT

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Shimizu ◽  
S Cho ◽  
K Hara ◽  
M Ohmori ◽  
R Tateishi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Heart Failure ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Cardiac Death ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Dual Isotope ◽  
Machine Learning Model

Abstract Background Dual-isotope (low doze 201TlCl and 123I-β-methyl-P-iodophenyl-pentadecanoic acid (BMIPP)) single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) is utilized to estimate myocardial damage in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). However, predictive model construction on the SPECT for cardiac death by machine learning was not studied. Purpose To elucidate predictive value of machine learning model on dual-isotope SPECT for CHF. Methods We enrolled consecutive 310 patients who admitted with CHF (77.1±3.1 years, 164 males). After initial treatment, they underwent electrocardiography gated SPECT and observed in median 507 days [IQR: 165, 1032]. Multivariate Cox regression analysis for cardiac death was performed, and predictive model was constructed by ROC curve analysis and machine learning (Random Forest and Deep Learning). The accuracies (= [True positive + True negative] / Total) of the prediction models were compared with ROC curve model. Results Thirty-six patients fell into cardiac death. Cox analysis showed Age, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), summed rest score (SRS) of BMIPP, and mismatch score were significant predictors (Hazard ratio: 1.068, 0.970, 1.032, 1.092, P value: <0.001, 0.014, 0.002, <0.001, respectively). ROC curve analysis of them revealed the accuracy of the cut-off value was 0.479–0.773. Conversely, machine learning model demonstrated higher accuracy for cardiac death (Random Forest: 0.895, Deep Learning: 0.935). The top 4 feature importance of the random forest were LVEF (0.299), SRS BMIPP (0.263), Age (0.262), and mismatch score (0.160). Conclusion Machine learning model on SPECT was superior to conventional statistic model for predicting cardiac death in patients with CHF. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Abstract 12872: Machine Learning on Dual-isotope Myocardial Semiconductor SPECT Can Predict Cardiac Prognosis in Patients With Congestive Heart Failure

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masato Shimizu ◽  
shummo cho ◽  
Yoshiki Misu ◽  
Mari Ohmori ◽  
Ryo Tateishi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Heart Failure ◽  
Congestive Heart Failure ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Cardiac Death ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Dual Isotope ◽  
Machine Learning Model

Introduction: Dual-isotope (201TlCl and 123I-β-methyl-P-iodophenyl-pentadecanoic acid (BMIPP) ) single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) is utilized to estimate not only in patients with ischemic heart disease but with congestive heart failure (CHF). We tried to construct predictive model for cardiac prognosis on the SPECT for cardiac death by machine learning. Hypothesis: Machine learning is a powerful tool to predict cardiac prognosis in patients with CHF Methods: Consecutive 310 patients who admitted with CHF (77.1±3.1 years, 164 males) were enrolled. After initial treatment, they underwent electrocardiography gated SPECT and observed in median 507 days [IQR: 165, 1032]. Multivariate Cox regression analysis for cardiac death was performed, and predictive model was constructed by ROC curve analysis and machine learning (Random Forest and Deep Learning). The accuracies (= [True positive + True negative] / Total) of the prediction models were compared with ROC curve model. Results: Thirty-six patients fell into cardiac death. Cox analysis showed Age, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), summed rest score (SRS) of BMIPP, and mismatch score were significant predictors (Hazard ratio: 1.068, 0.970, 1.032, 1.092, P value: <0.001, 0.014, 0.002, <0.001, respectively). ROC curve analysis of them revealed the accuracy of the cut-off value was 0.479-0.773. Conversely, machine learning model demonstrated higher accuracy for cardiac death (Random Forest: 0.895, Deep Learning: 0.935). The top 4 feature importance of the random forest were LVEF (0.299), SRS BMIPP (0.263), Age (0.262), and mismatch score (0.160). Conclusions: Machine learning model on SPECT had powerful predictive value for predicting cardiac death in patients with CHF.

Acute heart failure: predicting early in-hospital outcomes

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Santos ◽  
S Paula ◽  
I Almeida ◽  
H Santos ◽  
H Miranda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Acute Heart Failure ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Older Age ◽  
Invasive Ventilation ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Introduction Patients (P) with acute heart failure (AHF) are a heterogeneous population. Risk stratification at admission may help predict in-hospital complications and needs. The Get With The Guidelines Heart Failure score (GWTG-HF) predicts in-hospital mortality (M) of P admitted with AHF. ACTION ICU score is validated to estimate the risk of complications requiring ICU care in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes. Objective To validate ACTION-ICU score in AHF and to compare ACTION-ICU to GWTG-HF as predictors of in-hospital M (IHM), early M [1-month mortality (1mM)] and 1-month readmission (1mRA), using real-life data. Methods Based on a single-center retrospective study, data collected from P admitted in the Cardiology department with AHF between 2010 and 2017. P without data on previous cardiovascular history or uncompleted clinical data were excluded. Statistical analysis used chi-square, non-parametric tests, logistic regression analysis and ROC curve analysis. Results Among the 300 P admitted with AHF included, mean age was 67.4 ± 12.6 years old and 72.7% were male. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) was 131.2 ± 37.0mmHg, glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was 57.1 ± 23.5ml/min. 35.3% were admitted in Killip-Kimball class (KKC) 4. ACTION-ICU score was 10.4 ± 2.3 and GWTG-HF was 41.7 ± 9.6. Inotropes’ usage was necessary in 32.7% of the P, 11.3% of the P needed non-invasive ventilation (NIV), 8% needed invasive ventilation (IV). IHM rate was 5% and 1mM was 8%. 6.3% of the P were readmitted 1 month after discharge. Older age (p &lt; 0.001), lower SBP (p = 0,035) and need of inotropes (p &lt; 0.001) were predictors of IHM in our population. As expected, patients presenting in KKC 4 had higher IHM (OR 8.13, p &lt; 0.001). Older age (OR 1.06, p = 0.002, CI 1.02-1.10), lower SBP (OR 1.01, p = 0.05, CI 1.00-1.02) and lower left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF) (OR 1.06, p &lt; 0.001, CI 1.03-1.09) were predictors of need of NIV. None of the variables were predictive of IV. LVEF (OR 0.924, p &lt; 0.001, CI 0.899-0.949), lower SBP (OR 0.80, p &lt; 0.001, CI 0.971-0.988), higher urea (OR 1.01, p &lt; 0.001, CI 1.005-1.018) and lower sodium (OR 0.92, p = 0.002, CI 0.873-0.971) were predictors of inotropes’ usage. Logistic regression showed that GWTG-HF predicted IHM (OR 1.12, p &lt; 0.001, CI 1.05-1.19), 1mM (OR 1.10, p = 1.10, CI 1.04-1.16) and inotropes’s usage (OR 1.06, p &lt; 0.001, CI 1.03-1.10), however it was not predictive of 1mRA, need of IV or NIV. Similarly, ACTION-ICU predicted IHM (OR 1.51, p = 0.02, CI 1.158-1.977), 1mM (OR 1.45, p = 0.002, CI 1.15-1.81) and inotropes’ usage (OR 1.22, p = 0.002, CI 1.08-1.39), but not 1mRA, the need of IV or NIV. ROC curve analysis revealed that GWTG-HF score performed better than ACTION-ICU regarding IHM (AUC 0.774, CI 0.46-0-90 vs AUC 0.731, CI 0.59-0.88) and 1mM (AUC 0.727, CI 0.60-0.85 vs AUC 0.707, CI 0.58-0.84). Conclusion In our population, both scores were able to predict IHM, 1mM and inotropes’s usage.

scholarly journals A Comparison of a Machine Learning Model with EuroSCORE II in Predicting Mortality after Elective Cardiac Surgery: A Decision Curve Analysis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. e0169772 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jérôme Allyn ◽  
Nicolas Allou ◽  
Pascal Augustin ◽  
Ivan Philip ◽  
Olivier Martinet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Cardiac Surgery ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Decision Curve Analysis ◽  
Elective Cardiac Surgery ◽  
Machine Learning Model

Abstract 12455: Evaluation of N-Terminal Pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptide as a Therapeutic Response Biomarker in Group I Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 130 (suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron M Wolfson ◽  
Micheal L Maitland ◽  
Vasiliki Thomeas ◽  
Cherylanne Glassner ◽  
Mardi Gomberg-Maitland
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension ◽  
Arterial Hypertension ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Goal Directed Therapy ◽  
Group I ◽  
Target Values ◽  
Pulmonary Arterial

Purpose: Goal directed management of left heart failure with an NT-proBNP target-based approach has some evidence of providing a survival benefit. To evaluate the potential utility of serial NT-proBNP measurements for goal-directed therapy in right heart failure we retrospectively assessed NT-proBNP as a predictor for survival in Group I pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) patients. Methods: We identified 103 Group I PAH patients from a pulmonary hypertension registry who had baseline elevated NT-proBNP prior to either the initiation or escalation of therapy and at least two serial NT-proBNP measurements. In a two-step process, we (1) estimated baseline NT-proBNP and slope (rate of change of NT-proBNP) with a linear mixed-effects model using all patient data and then (2) compared the power of serial versus single measurements in predicting survival with measured and model-derived values of baseline NT-proBNP with a Receiver Operative Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis . Survival was determined using the Kaplan-Meier methodology. Results: ROC curve analysis revealed significantly higher AUC for model-derived NT-proBNP values compared to the measured values (AUC: for baseline 0.74 vs 0.66, p= 0.009; for slope 0.78 vs 0.66, p= 0.02). Optimal cutpoints for prediction of survival on baseline NT-proBNP were 2012 (measured) vs. 1810 (model-derived) pg/mL. The optimal cutpoint for model-derived change in NT-proBNP was -0.004 log10pg/mL/month. Sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive values for the three predictor variables were: 64%, 67%, 80% (measured baseline NT-proBNP), 61%, 80%, 81% (model-derived baseline NT-proBNP) and 73%, 57%, 85% (model-derived slope). Conclusions: In PAH patients, serial NT-proBNP measurements better predict survival than single measurements. This retrospective finding reveals that changes in NT-proBNP are associated with overall survival in PAH patients, and set initial target values for a pilot prospective study of NT-proBNP goal-directed therapy.

scholarly journals Weather prediction using random forest machine learning model

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 1208
Author(s):  
R. Meenal ◽  
Prawin Angel Michael ◽  
D. Pamela ◽  
E. Rajasekaran
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Statistical Regression ◽  
Machine Learning Model

The complex numerical climate models pose a big challenge for scientists in weather predictions, especially for tropical system. This paper is focused on presenting the importance of weather prediction using machine learning (ML) technique. Recently many researchers recommended that the machine learning models can produce sensible weather predictions in spite of having no precise knowledge of atmospheric physics. In this work, global solar radiation (GSR) in MJ/m2/day and wind speed in m/s is predicted for Tamil Nadu, India using a random forest ML model. The random forest ML model is validated with measured wind and solar radiation data collected from IMD, Pune. The prediction results based on the random forest ML model are compared with statistical regression models and SVM ML model. Overall, random forest machine learning model has minimum error values of 0.750 MSE and R2 score of 0.97. Compared to regression models and SVM ML model, the prediction results of random forest ML model are more accurate. Thus, this study neglects the need for an expensive measuring instrument in all potential locations to acquire the solar radiation and wind speed data.

scholarly journals The importance of round-robin validation when assessing machine-learning-based vertical extrapolation of wind speeds

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Bodini ◽  
Mike Optis
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Sonic Anemometer ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Round Robin ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Machine Learning Model

Abstract. The extrapolation of wind speeds measured at a meteorological mast to wind turbine hub heights is a key component in a bankable wind farm energy assessment and a significant source of uncertainty. Industry-standard methods for extrapolation include the power law and logarithmic profile. The emergence of machine-learning applications in wind energy has led to several studies demonstrating substantial improvements in vertical extrapolation accuracy in machine-learning methods over these conventional power law and logarithmic profile methods. In all cases, these studies assess relative model performance at a measurement site where, critically, the machine-learning algorithm requires knowledge of the hub-height wind speeds in order to train the model. This prior knowledge provides fundamental advantages to the site-specific machine-learning model over the power law and log profile, which, by contrast, are not highly tuned to hub-height measurements but rather can generalize to any site. Furthermore, there is no practical benefit in applying a machine-learning model at a site where hub-height winds are known; rather, its performance at nearby locations (i.e., across a wind farm site) without hub-height measurements is of most practical interest. To more fairly and practically compare machine-learning-based extrapolation to standard approaches, we implemented a round-robin extrapolation model comparison, in which a random forest machine-learning model is trained and evaluated at different sites and then compared against the power law and logarithmic profile. We consider 20 months of lidar and sonic anemometer data collected at four sites between 50–100 kilometers apart in the central United States. We find that the random forest outperforms the standard extrapolation approaches, especially when incorporating surface measurements as inputs to include the influence of atmospheric stability. When compared at a single site (the traditional comparison approach), the machine-learning improvement in mean absolute error was 28 % and 23 % over the power law and logarithmic profile, respectively. Using the round-robin approach proposed here, this improvement drops to 19 % and 14 %, respectively. These latter values better represent practical model performance, and we conclude that round-robin validation should be the standard for machine-learning-based, wind-speed extrapolation methods.

Random Forest Machine Learning Model for Predicting Combustion Feedback Information of a Natural Gas Spark Ignition Engine

2020 ◽  
Vol 143 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinlong Liu ◽  
Christopher Ulishney ◽  
Cosmin Emil Dumitrescu
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Engine Performance ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Control Variables ◽  
Feedback Information ◽  
Machine Learning Model

Abstract Engine calibration requires detailed feedback information that can reflect the combustion process as the optimized objective. Indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP) is such an indicator describing an engine’s capacity to do work under different combinations of control variables. In this context, it is of interest to find cost-effective solutions that will reduce the number of experimental tests. This paper proposes a random forest machine learning model as a cost-effective tool for optimizing engine performance. Specifically, the model estimated IMEP for a natural gas spark ignited engine obtained from a converted diesel engine. The goal was to develop an economical and robust tool that can help reduce the large number of experiments usually required throughout the design and development of internal combustion engines. The data used for building such correlative model came from engine experiments that varied the spark advance, fuel-air ratio, and engine speed. The inlet conditions and the coolant/oil temperature were maintained constant. As a result, the model inputs were the key engine operation variables that affect engine performance. The trained model was shown to be able to predict the combustion-related feedback information with good accuracy (R2 ≈ 0.9 and MSE ≈ 0). In addition, the model accurately reproduced the effect of control variables on IMEP, which would help narrow the choice of operating conditions for future designs of experiment. Overall, the machine learning approach presented here can provide new chances for cost-efficient engine analysis and diagnostics work.

scholarly journals Machine-learning model derived gene signature predictive of paclitaxel survival benefit in gastric cancer: results from the randomised phase III SAMIT trial

Gut ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. gutjnl-2021-324060
Author(s):  
Raghav Sundar ◽  
Nesaretnam Barr Kumarakulasinghe ◽  
Yiong Huak Chan ◽  
Kazuhiro Yoshida ◽  
Takaki Yoshikawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Survival Benefit ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Gene Signature ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Machine Learning Model

ObjectiveTo date, there are no predictive biomarkers to guide selection of patients with gastric cancer (GC) who benefit from paclitaxel. Stomach cancer Adjuvant Multi-Institutional group Trial (SAMIT) was a 2×2 factorial randomised phase III study in which patients with GC were randomised to Pac-S-1 (paclitaxel +S-1), Pac-UFT (paclitaxel +UFT), S-1 alone or UFT alone after curative surgery.DesignThe primary objective of this study was to identify a gene signature that predicts survival benefit from paclitaxel chemotherapy in GC patients. SAMIT GC samples were profiled using a customised 476 gene NanoString panel. A random forest machine-learning model was applied on the NanoString profiles to develop a gene signature. An independent cohort of metastatic patients with GC treated with paclitaxel and ramucirumab (Pac-Ram) served as an external validation cohort.ResultsFrom the SAMIT trial 499 samples were analysed in this study. From the Pac-S-1 training cohort, the random forest model generated a 19-gene signature assigning patients to two groups: Pac-Sensitive and Pac-Resistant. In the Pac-UFT validation cohort, Pac-Sensitive patients exhibited a significant improvement in disease free survival (DFS): 3-year DFS 66% vs 40% (HR 0.44, p=0.0029). There was no survival difference between Pac-Sensitive and Pac-Resistant in the UFT or S-1 alone arms, test of interaction p<0.001. In the external Pac-Ram validation cohort, the signature predicted benefit for Pac-Sensitive (median PFS 147 days vs 112 days, HR 0.48, p=0.022).ConclusionUsing machine-learning techniques on one of the largest GC trials (SAMIT), we identify a gene signature representing the first predictive biomarker for paclitaxel benefit.Trial registration numberUMIN Clinical Trials Registry: C000000082 (SAMIT); ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, 02628951 (South Korean trial)

scholarly journals PCirc: random forest-based plant circRNA identification software

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuwei Yin ◽  
Xiao Tian ◽  
Jingjing Zhang ◽  
Peisen Sun ◽  
Guanglin Li
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Circular Rna ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Open Reading Frames ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Rna Seq ◽  
Random Forest Algorithm ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Identification Software

Abstract Background Circular RNA (circRNA) is a novel type of RNA with a closed-loop structure. Increasing numbers of circRNAs are being identified in plants and animals, and recent studies have shown that circRNAs play an important role in gene regulation. Therefore, identifying circRNAs from increasing amounts of RNA-seq data is very important. However, traditional circRNA recognition methods have limitations. In recent years, emerging machine learning techniques have provided a good approach for the identification of circRNAs in animals. However, using these features to identify plant circRNAs is infeasible because the characteristics of plant circRNA sequences are different from those of animal circRNAs. For example, plants are extremely rich in splicing signals and transposable elements, and their sequence conservation in rice, for example is far less than that in mammals. To solve these problems and better identify circRNAs in plants, it is urgent to develop circRNA recognition software using machine learning based on the characteristics of plant circRNAs. Results In this study, we built a software program named PCirc using a machine learning method to predict plant circRNAs from RNA-seq data. First, we extracted different features, including open reading frames, numbers of k-mers, and splicing junction sequence coding, from rice circRNA and lncRNA data. Second, we trained a machine learning model by the random forest algorithm with tenfold cross-validation in the training set. Third, we evaluated our classification according to accuracy, precision, and F1 score, and all scores on the model test data were above 0.99. Fourth, we tested our model by other plant tests, and obtained good results, with accuracy scores above 0.8. Finally, we packaged the machine learning model built and the programming script used into a locally run circular RNA prediction software, Pcirc (https://github.com/Lilab-SNNU/Pcirc). Conclusion Based on rice circRNA and lncRNA data, a machine learning model for plant circRNA recognition was constructed in this study using random forest algorithm, and the model can also be applied to plant circRNA recognition such as Arabidopsis thaliana and maize. At the same time, after the completion of model construction, the machine learning model constructed and the programming scripts used in this study are packaged into a localized circRNA prediction software Pcirc, which is convenient for plant circRNA researchers to use.

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