Work participation trajectories in 1098748 Finns: determinants and the incidence of sickness absence

Background Early exit from paid employment is a notable public health and societal challenge. Previous research has largely focused on the relationships among variables instead of the relationships among individuals with different work participation history. Person-oriented methods enable to identify latent groups of individuals who are likely to follow similar development in their work participation over time. We thus aimed to identify work participation trajectories during early and midlife careers and their social determinants. A further aim was to determine the cumulative incidence of sickness absence due to key diagnostic groups, mental disorders and musculoskeletal diseases within the trajectories. Methods Young (25-38 years at baseline, n = 495663) and midlife (39-52 years at baseline, n = 603085) Finnish people, working in 2004, were followed up through 2013, with registers of the Social Insurance Institution, and the Statistics Finland. The registers provided data for the outcome (work participation) and its determinants and sickness absence. Latent class growth analysis was used to identify trajectories. Results Three distinctive trajectories were identified: temporary exit, permanent exit, and continuously employed people. As compared to the other trajectories, those belonging to the permanent exit trajectory were more likely men, manual workers and had a lower income. The cumulative incidence of sickness absence due to mental disorders was highest in the permanent exit trajectory group. For musculoskeletal diseases, the cumulative incidence of sickness absence increased in the permanent exit trajectory mainly in the older age groups. Conclusions Distinct group-based trajectories of early work exit can be identified in a representative cohort of initially employed people. Focusing on the determinants of premature exit and early intervention to tackle increasing sickness absence may promote work participation particularly in the most vulnerable groups. Key messages Distinct trajectories of premature exit from paid employment can be identified in a nationally representative cohort of initially employed people from Finland. Focusing on the determinants and reasons of premature long-term labor market exit may help promote work participation particularly in the most vulnerable groups.