Deniability in the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime: The Upside of the Dual-Use Dilemma

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reid B C Pauly
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Nuclear Nonproliferation ◽  
Dual Use ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Audience Costs ◽  
Policy Debates ◽  
Us Government ◽  
To Come

Abstract Nuclear technology is often “dual-use,” having both peaceful and military applications. This is widely regarded as a lamentable fact, as states can pursue nuclear weapons under the guise of peaceful intentions. However, this article proposes an upside to the nuclear dual-use dilemma: the deniable nature of dual-use technology makes it more amenable to coercive counterproliferation. Caught proliferators are more likely to come into compliance if they can elude audience costs by denying that they were ever out of compliance. Thus, the dual-use dilemma is both the bane of the nonproliferation regime and a boon to its coercive enforcement. Poor knowledge of past nuclear programs can hamper future verification. Counterintuitively, however, the effectiveness of nonproliferation regime institutions created to promote transparency—the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—may be enhanced by not directly challenging the denial of past nuclear activities. This research uses interviews and archival evidence from the IAEA, US government, and South African apartheid government. At a time when ongoing nuclear disputes revolve around questions of transparency and admissions of guilt, this article contributes to scholarly and policy debates about secrecy, face-saving, counterproliferation strategy, and the role of international institutions in coercive bargaining.

scholarly journals The Carter Administration and the Evolution of American Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy, 1977–1981

2002 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 261-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Michael Martinez
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Nuclear Nonproliferation ◽  
Nuclear Testing ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
Subsequent Response ◽  
The World ◽  
Uncertain Time ◽  
First Time

In the wake of India's May 1998 decision to resume nuclear testing for the first time since 1974, as well as arch-rival Pakistan's subsequent response, the attention of the world again has focused on nuclear nonproliferation policy as a means of maintaining stability in politically troubled regions of the world. The 1990s proved to be an uncertain time for nonproliferation policy. Pakistan acquired nuclear capabilities. Iraq displayed its well-known intransigence by refusing to allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) arms inspectors access to facilities suspected of manufacturing nuclear weapons. North Korea maintained a nuclear weapons program despite opposition from many Western nations. Troubling questions about nuclear holdings persisted in Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa. New nuclear powers were created in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Even the renewal of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in 1995 failed to assuage the concerns of Western powers fearful of aggressive measures undertaken by rogue nuclear proliferants.

scholarly journals ‘deep wounds… left… in hearts and minds’: South African Public History

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Julia C. Wells
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Public History ◽  
African Identity ◽  
The Public ◽  
Academic Communities ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
To Come ◽  
Oral History Interview ◽  
Hearts And Minds

Public history practise in South Africa holds out much promise of further things to come. It can close the gulf between history and heritage. This chapter argues that the role of the public historian should not be conflated with the dynamics of the heritage sector, but suggests how trained academics can indeed put their skills to work in a society that is passionately interested in understanding itself and how its pasts created the present. The student movement sharply raised the image of universities in crisis, requiring a whole new, relevant curriculum and rethinking the ways that universities relate to their publics. Public historians can work towards creating invented spaces for co-production of knowledge, moving beyond the traditional oral history interview. The divide between academia and communities is huge and needs to be constantly tackled, providing access to the secluded information of the professional world. I suggest that due to their privileged place in society, many historians have been unable or unwilling to engage with the recovery agenda – the massive need for affirmation of African identity, capacity and culture. A handful of dedicated public historians do not fit this mould and have been exemplary in rolling up their sleeves and boldly engaging with the messy complications of dealing with non-academic communities to produce new forms of historical knowledge, based on inclusiveness.

Nuclear Weapons in Foreign Policy

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Molly Berkemeier ◽  
Matthew Fuhrmann
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Nuclear Proliferation ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
World Politics ◽  
International Peace ◽  
Dual Use ◽  
Coercive Diplomacy ◽  
Nuclear Strategy

This essay reviews academic research on the role of nuclear weapons in foreign policy. It begins by discussing the “Theory of the Nuclear Revolution,” which holds that nuclear weapons revolutionized world politics due to their overwhelming destructive capacity. The article then identifies several ways in which this theory has been challenged in scholarship. The article focuses in particular on four big debates in the literature on nuclear weapons and foreign policy: Does nuclear proliferation promote international peace and stability? Are nuclear weapons useful for coercive diplomacy? Do nuclear weapons make countries more assertive? How does nuclear strategy influence deterrence and security? After discussing these debates, the article concludes by calling for more research on the implications of dual-use nuclear technology for foreign policy and international security.

Supply to Deny: The Benefits of Nuclear Assistance for Nuclear Nonproliferation

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Davis Gibbons
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Nuclear Explosion ◽  
Nuclear Proliferation ◽  
Nuclear Nonproliferation ◽  
Nuclear Technology ◽  
Recent Scholarship ◽  
Nuclear Assistance

Abstract Recent scholarship on nuclear proliferation finds that many forms of nuclear assistance increase the odds that recipient states pursue nuclear weapons programs. While these studies may help us understand select cases of proliferation, they overshadow the role of nuclear supply in bolstering global nonproliferation efforts. After the risks of nuclear assistance became well-known following India's nuclear explosion in 1974, most major suppliers conditioned their assistance on recipients joining nonproliferation agreements. Case studies of states’ decision-making regarding these agreements illustrate how the provision of nuclear technology has been an effective tool in persuading states to join such agreements, the most important of which is the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). By joining the NPT, states strengthen the global nonproliferation regime and increase the costs of any potential future decision to proliferate. The offer of nuclear assistance has done far more to bolster global nuclear nonproliferation efforts than recent research suggests.

scholarly journals Focal point pricing: A challenge to the successful implementation of Section 10a (introduced by the Competition Amendment Act)

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 395-409
Author(s):  
Mike Holland ◽  
Jannie Rossouw ◽  
Jessica Staples
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Competitive Effects ◽  
Oligopolistic Markets ◽  
Tacit Coordination ◽  
Oligopoly Markets ◽  
To Come

The Competition Amendment Act introduced section 10A, which provides the Competition Commission with the powers to investigate complex monopoly conduct in a market and allows the Competition Tribunal, under certain conditions, to prohibit such behaviour. Although more than five years have elapsed since the Competition Amendment Act was promulgated, this provision has yet to come into force. However, when it eventually does so, it will mark a significant change in South African competition law, as it seeks to regulate firms’ consciously parallel conduct. This is coordinated conduct that occurs without communication or agreement, but results in the prevention or substantial lessening of competition. Examples of horizontal tacit coordination practices include price leadership and facilitating practices, such as information exchanges and price signaling. The successful implementation of the amendment poses problems for the competition authorities in assessing the competitive effects of complex monopoly conduct and in providing effective remedies. Oligopoly markets result in mutual interdependent decision-making by firms, which can lead to market outcomes similar to explicit collusion. However, a further and little noticed issue is that firms in oligopolistic markets have opportunities to use focal points to determine coordinated strategies. This paper explores the nature and role of focal point pricing, which can lead to prices that are above competitive levels. The South African banking industry is used as an example. We find that focal point pricing is difficult to control, making the successful implementation of section 10A even more problematic. Moreover, the proposed amendment provides scope for the imposition of structural remedies by the Competition Tribunal, a function that the Competition Tribunal is ill-suited to perform.

The Iran “Threat” In a Kafkaesque World

2012 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward S. Herman ◽  
David Peterson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
News Media ◽  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
The United States ◽  
Weapons Of Mass Destruction ◽  
Mass Destruction ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Nuclear Program ◽  
Multilateral Institutions

From June 2003 to August 2012, the International Atomic Energy Agency published thirty-eight full written reports on Iran's nuclear program and conducted numerous inspections in the country. Yet although the Agency has never determined that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, Iran has never been able to free itself from the relentless U.S. campaign against its nuclear program. This article shows how the United States has mobilized the multilateral institutions to place Iran's nuclear program on the international stage and kept it there. It also examines the parallel role played by the news media, which have resumed their role of a decade ago when they helped Washington make a fraudulent case for invading Iraq on “weapons of mass destruction” grounds. The essay contends that the alleged Iranian nuclear weapons threat is a U.S. and Israeli propaganda construct intended to mask their own real threat to attack Iran.

The impact of the 2015–2016 presidential election campaign on American Asian policy debates

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 354-369
Author(s):  
Robert Sutter
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Burden Sharing ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Weapons Proliferation ◽  
Policy Debates ◽  
Us Government ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Presidential Election Campaign

The 2015–2016 presidential election campaign had major effects on American debates regarding US policy toward Asia. Going into the campaign, the debates focused heavily on perceived US weaknesses in the face of growing challenges from China. As the campaign progressed, this broad concern with China remained active but secondary. It was overshadowed by strong debate on two sets of issues: international trade and the proposed Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) accord, and candidate Donald Trump’s controversial proposals on allied burden sharing, nuclear weapons proliferation, and North Korea. Criticism of the TPP received broad bi-partisan support and posed increasingly serious obstacles to US government approval of the pact. Trump’s controversial proposals were unpopular and seemed unlikely to be easily implemented even if he were elected; they were opposed by senior Republicans in Congress along with many others. Nevertheless, the proposals upset Japan, South Korea, and other Asian partners; they created major complications in US government efforts to reassure them in defining clear objectives toward regional partners and adversaries.

scholarly journals Arms control in the new military-political and technological conditions

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Arms Control ◽  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Nuclear Nonproliferation ◽  
Dual Use ◽  
Strategic Stability ◽  
The World ◽  
Dialectical Relationship ◽  
Expert Community ◽  
The Military

The monograph explores past, present and future of the dialectical relationship between arms control and the military-strategic, technological and political trends in the world developments. It examines the methodology of nuclear weapons development and employment, assessment of their impact on strategic stability and the prospects for the treaty-based arms control over emerging technologies. The book analyses innovative military and dual-use digital technologies as well as space weapons and the prospects for their prohibition. It also researches the problems of arms control in Europe and threats to nuclear nonproliferation regimes. The monograph is addressed at Russian and international political and expert community, as well as for the general readers interested in arms control issues.

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