scholarly journals Bayesian estimation of the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2

JAMIA Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qunfeng Dong ◽  
Xiang Gao
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prior Probability ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Single Point ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
Specificity And Sensitivity ◽  
Large Scale Dataset ◽  
The Us ◽  
Antibody Tests

Abstract Accurate estimations of the seroprevalence of antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 need to properly consider the specificity and sensitivity of the antibody tests. In addition, prior knowledge of the extent of viral infection in a population may also be important for adjusting the estimation of seroprevalence. For this purpose, we have developed a Bayesian approach that can incorporate the variabilities of specificity and sensitivity of the antibody tests, as well as the prior probability distribution of seroprevalence. We have demonstrated the utility of our approach by applying it to a recently published large-scale dataset from the US CDC, with our results providing entire probability distributions of seroprevalence instead of single-point estimates. Our Bayesian code is freely available at https://github.com/qunfengdong/AntibodyTest.

scholarly journals Bayesian Estimation of the Seroprevalence of Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qunfeng Dong ◽  
Xiang Gao
Keyword(s):  
Viral Infection ◽  
Bayesian Statistics ◽  
Prior Knowledge ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Infection Prevalence ◽  
Specificity And Sensitivity ◽  
Large Scale Dataset ◽  
Antibody Tests ◽  
The U.S

Accurately estimating the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 requires the use of appropriate methods. Bayesian statistics provides a natural framework for considering the variabilities of specificity and sensitivity of the antibody tests, as well as for incorporating prior knowledge of viral infection prevalence. We present a full Bayesian approach for this purpose, and we demonstrate the utility of our approach using a recently published large-scale dataset from the U.S. CDC.

Field-theoretic density estimation for biological sequence space with applications to 5′ splice site diversity and aneuploidy in cancer

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (40) ◽  
pp. e2025782118
Author(s):  
Wei-Chia Chen ◽  
Juannan Zhou ◽  
Jason M. Sheltzer ◽  
Justin B. Kinney ◽  
David M. McCandlish
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Density Estimation ◽  
Sequence Space ◽  
Chromosomal Abnormalities ◽  
Fundamental Problem ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Biological Sequence ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
Site Diversity

Density estimation in sequence space is a fundamental problem in machine learning that is also of great importance in computational biology. Due to the discrete nature and large dimensionality of sequence space, how best to estimate such probability distributions from a sample of observed sequences remains unclear. One common strategy for addressing this problem is to estimate the probability distribution using maximum entropy (i.e., calculating point estimates for some set of correlations based on the observed sequences and predicting the probability distribution that is as uniform as possible while still matching these point estimates). Building on recent advances in Bayesian field-theoretic density estimation, we present a generalization of this maximum entropy approach that provides greater expressivity in regions of sequence space where data are plentiful while still maintaining a conservative maximum entropy character in regions of sequence space where data are sparse or absent. In particular, we define a family of priors for probability distributions over sequence space with a single hyperparameter that controls the expected magnitude of higher-order correlations. This family of priors then results in a corresponding one-dimensional family of maximum a posteriori estimates that interpolate smoothly between the maximum entropy estimate and the observed sample frequencies. To demonstrate the power of this method, we use it to explore the high-dimensional geometry of the distribution of 5′ splice sites found in the human genome and to understand patterns of chromosomal abnormalities across human cancers.

Non-parametric Bayesian density estimation for biological sequence space with applications to pre-mRNA splicing and the karyotypic diversity of human cancer

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei-Chia Chen ◽  
Juannan Zhou ◽  
Jason M Sheltzer ◽  
Justin B Kinney ◽  
David M McCandlish
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Density Estimation ◽  
Cancer Progression ◽  
Sequence Space ◽  
Chromosomal Abnormalities ◽  
Fundamental Problem ◽  
Human Cancer ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Point Estimates

AbstractDensity estimation in sequence space is a fundamental problem in machine learning that is of great importance in computational biology. Due to the discrete nature and large dimensionality of sequence space, how best to estimate such probability distributions from a sample of observed sequences remains unclear. One common strategy for addressing this problem is to estimate the probability distribution using maximum entropy, i.e. calculating point estimates for some set of correlations based on the observed sequences and predicting the probability distribution that is as uniform as possible while still matching these point estimates. Building on recent advances in Bayesian field-theoretic density estimation, we present a generalization of this maximum entropy approach that provides greater expressivity in regions of sequence space where data is plentiful while still maintaining a conservative maximum entropy char-acter in regions of sequence space where data is sparse or absent. In particular, we define a family of priors for probability distributions over sequence space with a single hyper-parameter that controls the expected magnitude of higher-order correlations. This family of priors then results in a corresponding one-dimensional family of maximum a posteriori estimates that interpolate smoothly between the maximum entropy estimate and the observed sample frequencies. To demonstrate the power of this method, we use it to explore the high-dimensional geometry of the distribution of 5′ splice sites found in the human genome and to understand the accumulation of chromosomal abnormalities during cancer progression.

Implicitly localized MCMC sampler to cope with nonlocal/nonlinear data constraints in large-size inverse problems

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Michel Brankart
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Inverse Problems ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prior Probability ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Posterior Probability Distribution ◽  
Prior Probability Distribution ◽  
Large Size ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Nonlocal Nonlinear

<p>Many practical applications involve the resolution of large-size inverse problems, without providing more than a moderate-size sample to describe the prior probability distribution. In this situation, additional information must be supplied to augment the effective dimension of the available sample, for instance using a covariance localization approach. In this study, it is suggested that covariance localization can be efficiently applied to an approximate variant of the Metropolis/Hastings algorithm, by modulating the ensemble members by the large-scale patterns of other members. Modulation is used to design a (global) proposal probability distribution (i) that can be sampled at a very low cost, (ii) that automatically accounts for a localized prior covariance, and (iii) that leads to an efficient sampler for the augmented prior probability distribution or for the posterior probability distribution. The resulting algorithm is applied to an academic example, illustrating (i) the effectiveness of covariance localization, (ii) the ability of the method to deal with nonlocal/nonlinear observation operators and non-Gaussian observation errors, (iii) the reliability, resolution and optimality of the updated ensemble, using probabilistic scores appropriate to a non-Gaussian posterior distribution, and (iv) the scalability of the algorithm as a function of the size of the problem. The codes are openly available from github.com/brankart/ensdam.</p>

Methods for the Quantification of Salivary Cortisol and of a-amylase in Biosensors and Portable Devices

2018 ◽  
Vol 68 (12) ◽  
pp. 2857-2859
Author(s):  
Cristina Mihaela Ghiciuc ◽  
Andreea Silvana Szalontay ◽  
Luminita Radulescu ◽  
Sebastian Cozma ◽  
Catalina Elena Lupusoru ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Medical Practice ◽  
Salivary Cortisol ◽  
Clinical Studies ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Portable Devices ◽  
Salivary Amylase ◽  
Specificity And Sensitivity

There is an increasing interest in the analysis of salivary biomarkers for medical practice. The objective of this article was to identify the specificity and sensitivity of quantification methods used in biosensors or portable devices for the determination of salivary cortisol and salivary a-amylase. There are no biosensors and portable devices for salivary amylase and cortisol that are used on a large scale in clinical studies. These devices would be useful in assessing more real-time psychological research in the future.

scholarly journals Analysis of 220 Years of Floodplain Population Dynamics in the US at Different Spatial Scales

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Firoza Akhter ◽  
Maurizio Mazzoleni ◽  
Luigia Brandimarte
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
National Level ◽  
State Level ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Management Planning ◽  
The Us ◽  
Over Time

In this study, we explore the long-term trends of floodplain population dynamics at different spatial scales in the contiguous United States (U.S.). We exploit different types of datasets from 1790–2010—i.e., decadal spatial distribution for the population density in the US, global floodplains dataset, large-scale data of flood occurrence and damage, and structural and nonstructural flood protection measures for the US. At the national level, we found that the population initially settled down within the floodplains and then spread across its territory over time. At the state level, we observed that flood damages and national protection measures might have contributed to a learning effect, which in turn, shaped the floodplain population dynamics over time. Finally, at the county level, other socio-economic factors such as local flood insurances, economic activities, and socio-political context may predominantly influence the dynamics. Our study shows that different influencing factors affect floodplain population dynamics at different spatial scales. These facts are crucial for a reliable development and implementation of flood risk management planning.

scholarly journals Joint regression and learning from pairwise rankings for personalized image aesthetic assessment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin Zhou ◽  
Qing Zhang ◽  
Jian-Hao Fan ◽  
Wei Sun ◽  
Wei-Shi Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Generic Model ◽  
Small Subset ◽  
Deep Convolutional Neural Networks ◽  
Personal Taste ◽  
Hinge Loss ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Large Scale Dataset ◽  
Image Pairs

AbstractRecent image aesthetic assessment methods have achieved remarkable progress due to the emergence of deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs). However, these methods focus primarily on predicting generally perceived preference of an image, making them usually have limited practicability, since each user may have completely different preferences for the same image. To address this problem, this paper presents a novel approach for predicting personalized image aesthetics that fit an individual user’s personal taste. We achieve this in a coarse to fine manner, by joint regression and learning from pairwise rankings. Specifically, we first collect a small subset of personal images from a user and invite him/her to rank the preference of some randomly sampled image pairs. We then search for the K-nearest neighbors of the personal images within a large-scale dataset labeled with average human aesthetic scores, and use these images as well as the associated scores to train a generic aesthetic assessment model by CNN-based regression. Next, we fine-tune the generic model to accommodate the personal preference by training over the rankings with a pairwise hinge loss. Experiments demonstrate that our method can effectively learn personalized image aesthetic preferences, clearly outperforming state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, we show that the learned personalized image aesthetic benefits a wide variety of applications.

scholarly journals VIPPrint: Validating Synthetic Image Detection and Source Linking Methods on a Large Scale Dataset of Printed Documents

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 50
Author(s):  
Anselmo Ferreira ◽  
Ehsan Nowroozi ◽  
Mauro Barni
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Child Pornography ◽  
Forensic Analysis ◽  
Synthetic Image ◽  
Image Detection ◽  
Face Images ◽  
Large Scale Dataset ◽  
Scanned Images ◽  
Analysis Of The Images

The possibility of carrying out a meaningful forensic analysis on printed and scanned images plays a major role in many applications. First of all, printed documents are often associated with criminal activities, such as terrorist plans, child pornography, and even fake packages. Additionally, printing and scanning can be used to hide the traces of image manipulation or the synthetic nature of images, since the artifacts commonly found in manipulated and synthetic images are gone after the images are printed and scanned. A problem hindering research in this area is the lack of large scale reference datasets to be used for algorithm development and benchmarking. Motivated by this issue, we present a new dataset composed of a large number of synthetic and natural printed face images. To highlight the difficulties associated with the analysis of the images of the dataset, we carried out an extensive set of experiments comparing several printer attribution methods. We also verified that state-of-the-art methods to distinguish natural and synthetic face images fail when applied to print and scanned images. We envision that the availability of the new dataset and the preliminary experiments we carried out will motivate and facilitate further research in this area.

scholarly journals IgG and IgM antibody formation to spike and nucleocapsid proteins in COVID-19 characterized by multiplex immunoblot assays

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jyotsna Shah ◽  
Song Liu ◽  
Hari-Hara Potula ◽  
Prerna Bhargava ◽  
Iris Cruz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Viral Infections ◽  
Antibody Responses ◽  
Nucleocapsid Proteins ◽  
Igm Antibodies ◽  
Igm Antibody ◽  
Specificity And Sensitivity ◽  
The Us ◽  
Autoimmune Conditions ◽  
Antibody Positivity ◽  
Recombinant Nucleocapsid Protein

Abstract Background Rapid and simple serological assays for characterizing antibody responses are important in the current COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2. Multiplex immunoblot (IB) assays termed COVID-19 IB assays were developed for detecting IgG and IgM antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 virus proteins in COVID-19 patients. Methods Recombinant nucleocapsid protein and the S1, S2 and receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 were used as target antigens in the COVID-19 IBs. Specificity of the IB assay was established with 231 sera from persons with allergy, unrelated viral infections, autoimmune conditions and suspected tick-borne diseases, and 32 goat antisera to human influenza proteins. IgG and IgM COVID-19 IBs assays were performed on 84 sera obtained at different times after a positive RT-qPCR test from 37 COVID-19 patients with mild symptoms. Results Criteria for determining overall IgG and IgM antibody positivity using the four SARS-CoV-2 proteins were developed by optimizing specificity and sensitivity in the COVID-19 IgG and IgM IB assays. The estimated sensitivities and specificities of the COVID-19 IgG and IgM IBs for IgG and IgM antibodies individually or for either IgG or IgM antibodies meet the US recommendations for laboratory serological diagnostic tests. The proportion of IgM-positive sera from the COVID-19 patients following an RT-qPCR positive test was maximal at 83% before 10 days and decreased to 0% after 100 days, while the proportions of IgG-positive sera tended to plateau between days 11 and 65 at 78–100% and fall to 44% after 100 days. Detection of either IgG or IgM antibodies was better than IgG or IgM alone for assessing seroconversion in COVID-19. Both IgG and IgM antibodies detected RBD less frequently than S1, S2 and N proteins. Conclusions The multiplex COVID-19 IB assays offer many advantages for simultaneously evaluating antibody responses to different SARS-CoV-2 proteins in COVID-19 patients.

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