Steroid Use Associated With Increased Odds of 30-Day Mortality in Surgical Patients With Metastatic Spinal Tumors in the Setting of Disseminated Disease

Neurosurgery ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 85 (3) ◽  
pp. 394-401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan G Hobbs ◽  
Akash S Patel ◽  
Anisse N Chaker ◽  
Nazmul Hasan ◽  
Prateek Kumar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Surgical Treatment ◽  
National Database ◽  
Spinal Tumors ◽  
Improvement Program ◽  
Steroid Use ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
History Of ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Disseminated Disease

Abstract BACKGROUND Steroid administration is part of a standard treatment regimen in metastatic spinal cord compression, though the appropriate dose, duration, efficacy, and risks remain controversial. OBJECTIVE To analyze the risk of preoperative steroid use on 30-d mortality in surgical metastatic spinal tumors with dissemination disease using a large multicenter national database. METHODS Adult patients who underwent surgical treatment for metastatic spine tumors between 2005 and 2014 were identified in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Demographic, preoperative risk factors, operative information, and postoperative events were extracted. Multivariate logistical regression modeling was used to investigate the association with preoperative steroid use with the outcome of interest, 30-d mortality. Other independent risk factors associated with 30-d mortality were also identified. RESULTS Five hundred fifty-two patients underwent surgical treatment of spinal metastases with disseminated cancer present at time of surgery. Independent risk factors of 30-d mortality included prolonged steroid use (odds ratio [OR] 2.48, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.22-5.04, P = .012), dependent functional status (OR 2.91, 95% CI: 1.68-5.04, P < .001), history of bleeding disorder (OR 2.80, 95% CI: 1.16-6.74, P = .021), history of smoking (OR 2.26, 95% CI: 1.11-4.61, P = .024), preoperative transfusions (OR 2.91, 95% CI: 1.02-8.29, P = .049), and preoperative infection/sepsis (OR 2.67, 95% CI: 1.18-6.08, P = .02). Our model demonstrates very strong predictive capabilities, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.7447. CONCLUSION Steroid use is associated with a significant increased risk of 30-d mortality in surgical metastatic spine tumor patients with disseminated disease. These findings warrant further investigation in controlled experimental environments.

scholarly journals Periodontal disease and effects of antipsychotic medications in patients newly diagnosed with schizophrenia: a population-based retrospective cohort

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai-Fang Hu ◽  
Pei-Shan Ho ◽  
Yu-Hsiang Chou ◽  
Jui-Hsiu Tsai ◽  
Chung-Hung Richard Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Periodontal Disease ◽  
First Generation ◽  
Protective Factor ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Sugary Drinks ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
History Of ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Abstract Aim Compared with the general population, individuals with schizophrenia have a higher risk of periodontal disease, which can potentially reduce their life expectancy. However, evidence for the early development of periodontal disease in schizophrenia is scant. The current study investigated risk factors for periodontal disease in patients newly diagnosed with schizophrenia. Methods We identified a population-based cohort of patients in Taiwan with newly diagnosed schizophrenia who developed periodontal disease within 1 year of their schizophrenia diagnosis. Treatment with antipsychotics and other medications was categorised according to medication type and duration, and the association between medication use and the treated periodontal disease was assessed through logistic regression. Results Among 3610 patients with newly diagnosed schizophrenia, 2373 (65.7%) had an incidence of treated periodontal disease during the 1-year follow-up. Female sex (adjusted odds ratios [OR] 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20–1.63); young age (adjusted OR 0.99; 95% CI 0.98–0.99); a 2-year history of periodontal disease (adjusted OR 2.45; 95% CI 1.84–3.26); high income level (adjusted OR 2.24; 95% CI 1.64–3.06) and exposure to first-generation (adjusted OR 1.89; 95% CI 1.54–2.32) and secondary-generation (adjusted OR 1.33; 95% CI 1.11–1.58) antipsychotics, anticholinergics (adjusted OR 1.24; 95% CI 1.03–1.50) and antihypertensives (adjusted OR 1.91; 95% CI 1.64–2.23) were independent risk factors for periodontal disease. Hyposalivation – an adverse effect of first-generation antipsychotics (FGAs) (adjusted OR 2.00; 95% CI 1.63–2.45), anticholinergics (adjusted OR 1.27; 95% CI 1.05–1.53) and antihypertensives (adjusted OR 1.90; 95% CI 1.63–2.22) – was associated with increased risk of periodontal disease. Therefore, hypersalivation due to FGA use (adjusted OR 0.72; 95% CI 0.59–0.88) was considered a protective factor. Conclusions The current study highlights that early prevention of periodontal disease in individuals with schizophrenia is crucial. Along with paying more attention to the development of periodontal disease, assessing oral health regularly, helping with oral hygiene, and lowering consumption of sugary drinks and tobacco, emphasis should also be given by physicians to reduce the prescription of antipsychotics to the extent possible under efficacious pharmacotherapy for schizophrenia.

The Effect of Seromuscular-Dermal and All Layer-Dermal Suturing on the Rate of Early Stomal Mucocutaneous Separation: A Retrospective Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (3) ◽  
pp. 21-28
Author(s):  
Yusuke Ohara ◽  
Tsuyoshi Enomoto ◽  
Yohei Owada ◽  
Daichi Kitaguchi ◽  
Katsuji Hisakura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Retrospective Study ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Suture Technique ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Steroid Use ◽  
Surgical History ◽  
History Of ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

BACKGROUND: Stomal mucocutaneous separation (SMS) is a serious and common short-term and long-term complication of ostomy surgery, but optimal methods to help prevent it have not been established. The authors hypothesized that seromuscular-dermal (SM-D) suturing may be better than all layer-dermal (AL-D) suturing to help prevent SMS. METHODS: This retrospective study evaluated the short-term SMS rate of patients who underwent colostomy or ileostomy surgery between 2015 and 2019. Patient demographics, medical and surgical history variables, as well as SMS outcomes were abstracted. Postoperative SMS severity was categorized by extent as follows: grade A (mild), grade B (moderate), and grade C (severe). RESULTS: In total, 105 patients (AL-D group, 45 patients; SM-D group, 60 patients) were enrolled in the study. SMS occurred in 24 patients (23%). The overall SMS rate was 18% (n = 11) in the SM-D group and 29% (n = 13) in the AL-D group (P = .202). The occurrence of severe (grade C) or moderate and severe SMS (grades B + C) in the SM-D compared with the AL-D group was significantly different (2% vs 16% [P = .011] and 10% vs 24% [P = .047], respectively). A history of steroid use was a risk factor for moderate and severe SMS (P = .016, odds ratio 5.694). Stomal height ≤1 cm was a a risk factor for all cases of SMS (P = .037, odds ratio 2.650). AL-D suture technique and a history of steroid use were independent risk factors for severe and moderate plus severe SMS (P = .021, odds ratio 12.844 and P = .027, odds ratio 4.808, respectively). CONCLUSION: In this study, use of the AL-D suturing technique and a history of steroid use were independent risk factors for the short-term development of moderate or severe SMS. Patients whose stoma was secured using the SM-D technique had a significantly lower rate of moderate or severe SMS.

Risk Factors for Postoperative Unplanned Intubation: Analysis of a National Database

2015 ◽  
Vol 81 (8) ◽  
pp. 820-825 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin P. Alvarez ◽  
Andres X. Samayoa-Mendez ◽  
Mary C. Naglak ◽  
James V. Yuschak ◽  
Kenric M. Murayama
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
National Database ◽  
Chronic Obstructive ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Improvement Program ◽  
Surgical Quality ◽  
Obstructive Pulmonary Disease ◽  
National Rate ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Postoperative unplanned intubation (PUI) is a significant complication and is associated with severe adverse events and mortality. By participating in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP), we learned that PUI occurred more frequently than expected at our institution. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors that are predictors of PUI at our institution. We reviewed the NSQIP data from our institution and the NSQIP national database for surgery patients from 2010 through 2013. The rate of PUI at our institution was 1.54 per cent compared with the national rate of 1.03 per cent. Perioperative risk factors were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression. Analysis of the national NSQIP database identified 14 independent risk factors for PUI. Analysis of the NSQIP data at our institution demonstrated that emergent cases, preoperative ventilator status, smoking, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and older age were independent risk factors. In conclusion, patients at our institution with these five risk factors were at higher risk of requiring PUI. These risk factors could be used to help identify patients at high risk and possibly help prevent postoperative respiratory failure and unplanned intubation.

scholarly journals The Effects of Smoking on Extensor Mechanism Injury and Post Surgical Complications: A National Database Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (7_suppl6) ◽  
pp. 2325967120S0048
Author(s):  
Daniel Yang ◽  
Kyle Curtis ◽  
Alan Daniels ◽  
Brett Owens ◽  
Steven DeFroda
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Surgical Complications ◽  
Extensor Mechanism ◽  
National Database ◽  
Respiratory Complications ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Steroid Use ◽  
Medical Comorbidities ◽  
Increased Risk

Objectives: The extensor mechanism of the knee is composed of the quadriceps tendon, the patellar tendon, and the patella. These injuries are associated with several comorbidities including diabetes mellitus, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, hyperparathyroidism, chronic renal failure and corticosteroid or anabolic steroid use. Cigarette smoking is also a known risk factor for extensor mechanism rupture, with increased number of pack years associated with decreased tendon thickness and increased incidence of rupture. Smoking has also been shown to have deleterious effects on tendon repair, with a higher frequency of post-surgical complications involving soft-tissue infection, failure of wound healing, and worse functional outcomes in smokers relative to non-smokers. Using a large national data set of extensor mechanism repair patients, risk factors for extensor tendon injury, and the effects of smoking on the risk of postoperative complication were analyzed. We hypothesized that patients who smoke would have higher rates of post-surgical complications relative to non-smokers. Methods: This retrospective study utilized the Humana insurance data set within the PearlDiver Patient Records Database (PearlDiver Inc, Fort Wayne, Indiana), a large private/commercial and Medicare medical record database. Patients who underwent extensor mechanism repair using Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes CPT-27380, CPT-27524, and CPT-27385 were identified. These patients were partitioned into two cohorts, one coding for tobacco use or nicotine dependence before their repair and another who did not. Gender, age, obesity, morbid obesity, diabetes, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), steroid use, renal dialysis, thyroid disease, end stage renal disease, hyperlipidemia, and systemic inflammation rates were assessed in each population. Postoperative complications, including 30-day readmission rate, 1-year revision rate (defined as a repeat procedure within 1 year post-index surgery), urinary tract infection (UTI), surgical site complication, deep vein thrombosis (DVT), sepsis, pneumonia, myocardial complications, respiratory complications, cardiac complications, cardiac arrest, coagulation, and death were investigated for the two groups. Multivariate logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios, controlling for age, gender, race, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and all risk factors that were found to have significantly different risks between smoking and non-smoking patients. Statistical analysis was performed using the PearlDiver software, which runs R, Version 1.1.442. An α value of .05 was set as the level of significance. Results: Among extensor mechanism repair patients, 1559 (22.5%) smoking patients and 5376 (77.5%) non-smoking patients were included in the analysis. The age distribution of both cohorts of patients was similar, with most patients being between 65 and 74 years of age (Table 1). Pre-operative comorbidities associated with extensor mechanism injury were found to be significantly different between the smoking and non-smoking cohorts, specifically with regards to smokers 11.2% vs. 5.9% (p<0.0001) were obese, 51.4% vs. 37.1% had diabetes (p<0.0001), 82.5% vs. 34.1% were hypertensive (p<0.0001) and 10.3% vs. 1.9% had COPD (p<0.0001) at the time of initial injury. Smoking extensor mechanism repair patients had higher rates of 1-year revision, total 30-day complications, UTI, surgical site complications, sepsis, pneumonia, myocardial complications, and respiratory complications (Table 2). Conclusions: Patients who are smokers at the time of extensor mechanism injury are more likely to have a higher number of medical comorbidities including obesity, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and COPD. Recognizing that smokers with extensor mechanism injuries have more medical comorbidities at baseline, placing them at higher risk for anesthesia, should influence the surgeons’ decision making with regards to location of the surgery (hospital versus ambulatory surgery center), as well as the possible need for post operative admission Additionally smoking portends a much higher complication rate following extensor mechanism repair, most notably in our study, a 65.7% incidence of need for 1-year revision, and a 21.4% incidence of a 30-day complication. It is important for surgeons to recognize the increased risk of complications in these patients and counsel them regarding these risks and encourage smoking cessation. [Table: see text][Table: see text]

scholarly journals Blastomycosis in Missouri: epidemiology and risk factors for endemic disease

2003 ◽  
Vol 131 (2) ◽  
pp. 907-914 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. V. CANO ◽  
G. F. PONCE-DE-LEON ◽  
S. TIPPEN ◽  
M. D. LINDSLEY ◽  
M. WARWICK ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Genetic Factors ◽  
Case Control Study ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Prior History ◽  
Black Race ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
History Of ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Control Study

Between 1992 and 1999, 93 cases of blastomycosis, including 25 laboratory confirmed cases, were identified in Missouri (annual incidence, 0·2/100000 population). Mississippi County in southeastern Missouri had the highest incidence (12/100000) with a much higher rate among blacks than whites in this county (43·2/100000). The mortality rate, 44% was also higher among blacks. To determine risk factors for endemic blastomycosis, a case-control study was conducted among southeastern Missouri residents. Independent risk factors for blastomycosis were black race and a prior history of pneumonia. No environmental exposures or socioeconomic factors were significantly associated with increased risk. The increased risk among blacks may possibly be related to genetic factors, but further studies are needed to clarify this. However, heightened awareness of the disease and a better understanding of the risk factors are important and may lead to earlier diagnosis and start of treatment, possibly improving outcome.

Short-Term Outcomes of Primary Total Ankle Arthroplasty in Octogenarians: A National Database Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 193864002096054
Author(s):  
Matthew Partan ◽  
Nicholas Frane ◽  
Cesar Iturriaga ◽  
Prashant Matai ◽  
Adam Bitterman
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Total Ankle Arthroplasty ◽  
Hospital Length Of Stay ◽  
National Database ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ankle Arthroplasty ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Background Total ankle arthroplasty (TAA) is an increasingly popular option for end-stage ankle arthritis. Americans over the age of 80 years grew to 16.7 million in 2010, but there are scarce data assessing the outcomes of octogenarians undergoing TAA. This study evaluated (1) perioperative factors, (2) 30-day postoperative complications compared to a nonoctogenarian cohort, and (3) independent risk factors for adverse outcomes. Methods A national database registry was queried for patients who had undergone primary TAA. This yielded 1113 patients, under (n = 1059) and over (n = 54) age 80 years. Demographics and perioperative data were compared using Fisher’s exact, χ2, and independent-samples t tests. Logistic and Poisson regressions were used to calculate odds ratio (OR) of complications and independent risk factors. Results The octogenarian cohort had longer in-hospital length of stay (1.9 vs 2.5 days, P < .0001). Octogenarians were not significantly more likely to develop any complication (OR = 1.32; 95% confidence interval = 0.29-6.04; P = .722), or increased number of complications (OR = 1.18; 95% CI = 0.27-5.18; P = .820). Octogenarians had significantly increased risk of being discharged to rehab/skilled nursing (OR = 6.60; 95% CI = 2.16-20.15; P < .001) instead of home. Conclusion Although the elderly population may carry inherent risk factors, octogenarians do not present an increased risk of short-term complications following TAA. Levels of Evidence Therapeutic, Level III: Retrospective cohort study.

scholarly journals Early and Late Postoperative Seizures in Meningioma Patients and Prediction by a Recent Scoring System

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 450
Author(s):  
Peter Baumgarten ◽  
Mana Sarlak ◽  
Daniel Monden ◽  
Andrea Spyrantis ◽  
Simon Bernatz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Tumor Volume ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Temporal Location ◽  
Meningioma Surgery ◽  
Impaired Quality

Seizures are among the most common symptoms of meningioma. This retrospective study sought to identify risk factors for early and late seizures in meningioma patients and to evaluate a modified STAMPE2 score. In 556 patients who underwent meningioma surgery, we correlated different risk factors with the occurrence of postoperative seizures. A modified STAMPE2 score was applied. Risk factors for preoperative seizures were edema (p = 0.039) and temporal location (p = 0.038). For postoperative seizures preoperative tumor size (p < 0.001), sensomotory deficit (p = 0.004) and sphenoid wing location (p = 0.032) were independent risk factors. In terms of postoperative status epilepticus; sphenoid wing location (p = 0.022), tumor volume (p = 0.045) and preoperative seizures (p < 0.001) were independent risk factors. Postoperative seizures lead to a KPS deterioration and thus an impaired quality of life (p < 0.001). Late seizures occurred in 43% of patients with postoperative seizures. The small sub-cohort of patients (2.7%) with a STAMPE2 score of more than six points had a significantly increased risk for seizures (p < 0.001, total risk 70%). We concluded that besides distinct risk factors, high scores of the modified STAMPE2 score could estimate the risk of postoperative seizures. However, it seems not transferable to our cohort

scholarly journals Nasal symptoms increase the risk of snoring and snoring increases the risk of nasal symptoms. A longitudinal population study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Värendh ◽  
Christer Janson ◽  
Caroline Bengtsson ◽  
Johan Hellgren ◽  
Mathias Holm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Respiratory Health ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Nasal Breathing ◽  
Nasal Symptoms ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Study Population ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Abstract Purpose Humans have a preference for nasal breathing during sleep. This 10-year prospective study aimed to determine if nasal symptoms can predict snoring and also if snoring can predict development of nasal symptoms. The hypothesis proposed is that nasal symptoms affect the risk of snoring 10 years later, whereas snoring does not increase the risk of developing nasal symptoms. Methods In the cohort study, Respiratory Health in Northern Europe (RHINE), a random population from Denmark, Estonia, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, born between 1945 and 1973, was investigated by postal questionnaires in 1999–2001 (RHINE II, baseline) and in 2010–2012 (RHINE III, follow-up). The study population consisted of the participants who had answered questions on nasal symptoms such as nasal obstruction, discharge, and sneezing, and also snoring both at baseline and at follow-up (n = 10,112). Results Nasal symptoms were frequent, reported by 48% of the entire population at baseline, with snoring reported by 24%. Nasal symptoms at baseline increased the risk of snoring at follow-up (adj. OR 1.38; 95% CI 1.22–1.58) after adjusting for age, sex, BMI change between baseline and follow-up, and smoking status. Snoring at baseline was associated with an increased risk of developing nasal symptoms at follow-up (adj. OR 1.22; 95% CI 1.02–1.47). Conclusion Nasal symptoms are independent risk factors for development of snoring 10 years later, and surprisingly, snoring is a risk factor for the development of nasal symptoms.

scholarly journals Differences in initial versus recurrent diabetic foot ulcers at a specialized tertiary diabetic foot care center in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 030006052098739
Author(s):  
Yuxia Cheng ◽  
Ping Zu ◽  
Jie Zhao ◽  
Lintao Shi ◽  
Hongyan Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Diabetic Foot ◽  
Blood Glucose Control ◽  
Diabetes Duration ◽  
Chinese Patients ◽  
Foot Care ◽  
Vascular Intervention ◽  
History Of ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Recurrence Group

Objective To investigate the characteristics of diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) recurrence. Methods A total of 573 patients with DFUs were recruited and divided into an initial group (395 patients) and a recurrence group (178 patients). The factors related to recurrence were analyzed using multivariate regression. Results The recurrence group had longer diabetes duration (odds ratio [OR] 192; 95% confidence interval 120, 252 vs. 156; 96, 240); lower glycated hemoglobin levels (OR 8.1; 95% CI 6.8, 9.6 vs. 9.1; 7.4, 10.5), and higher rates than the initial group of amputation (37.5% vs. 2.0%), history of vascular intervention (21.3% vs. 3.9%), retinopathy (77.7% vs. 64.7%), callus (44.4% vs. 20.8%), foot deformity (51.2% vs. 24.6%), and outdoor sports shoe wearing (34.0% vs. 21.2%). Multiple factor logistic regression analysis showed that diabetes duration (OR 1.004), callus (OR 2.769), vascular intervention (OR 2.824) and amputation (OR 22.256) were independent risk factors for DFU recurrence. Conclusion Diabetes duration, callus, history of vascular intervention, and amputation were independent risk factors for recurrent DFUs in a cohort of Chinese patients with active DFU. The prevention and treatment of DFUs, especially callus treatment, foot care, and blood glucose control, should be improved in China.

scholarly journals Patients with SLE have higher risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in comparison with controls with the same levels of traditional risk factors and intima-media measures, which is related to accumulated disease damage and antiphospholipid syndrome: a case–control study over 10 years

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. e000454
Author(s):  
Sofia Ajeganova ◽  
Ingiäld Hafström ◽  
Johan Frostegård
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Antiphospholipid Syndrome ◽  
Carotid Plaque ◽  
Adverse Outcome ◽  
Density Lipoprotein ◽  
Index Score ◽  
Baseline Body Mass Index ◽  
Systemic Lupus ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
History Of

ObjectiveSLE is a strong risk factor for premature cardiovascular (CV) disease and mortality. We investigated which factors could explain poor prognosis in SLE compared with controls.MethodsPatients with SLE and population controls without history of clinical CV events who performed carotid ultrasound examination were recruited for this study. The outcome was incident CV event and death. Event-free survival rates were compared using Kaplan-Meier curves. Relative HR (95% CI) was used to estimate risk of outcome.ResultsPatients (n=99, 87% female), aged 47 (13) years and with a disease duration of 12 (9) years, had mild disease at inclusion, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Diseases Activity Index score of 3 (1–6) and Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Damage Index score of 0 (0–1). The controls (n=109, 91% female) were 49 (12) years old. Baseline carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) did not differ between the groups, but plaques were more prevalent in patients (p=0.068). During 10.1 (9.8-10.2) years, 12 patients and 4 controls reached the outcome (p=0.022). Compared with the controls, the risk of the adverse outcome in patients increased threefold to fourfold taking into account age, gender, history of smoking and diabetes, family history of CV, baseline body mass index, waist circumference, C reactive protein, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, dyslipidaemia, cIMT and presence of carotid plaque. In patients, higher SLICC score and SLE-antiphospholipid syndrome (SLE-APS) were associated with increased risk of the adverse outcome, with respective HRs of 1.66 (95% CI 1.20 to 2.28) and 9.08 (95% CI 2.71 to 30.5), as was cIMT with an HR of 1.006 (95% CI 1.002 to 1.01). The combination of SLICC and SLE-APS with cIMT significantly improved prediction of the adverse outcome (p<0.001).ConclusionIn patients with mild SLE of more than 10 years duration, there is a threefold to fourfold increased risk of CV events and death compared with persons who do not have SLE with similar pattern of traditional CV risk factors, cIMT and presence of carotid plaque. SLICC, SLE-APS and subclinical atherosclerosis may indicate a group at risk of worse outcome in SLE.

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