Declining wintering shorebird populations at a temperate estuary in California: A 30-year perspective

The Condor ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 123 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nils Warnock ◽  
Scott Jennings ◽  
John P Kelly ◽  
T Emiko Condeso ◽  
David Lumpkin
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Rapid Decline ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Marin County ◽  
The North ◽  
Western Sandpiper ◽  
Sources Of Variation ◽  
Tomales Bay ◽  
Effective Conservation

Abstract Worldwide, shorebird populations are declining. Our objectives were to examine abundance trends of shorebirds regularly wintering at Tomales Bay, Marin County, California, accounting for the local effects of rainfall, raptors, and the restoration of part of the bay to tidal wetlands. From November 1989 to February 2019, we conducted 177 comprehensive winter shorebird surveys of Tomales Bay; we averaged 5.7 ± 0.9 (mean ± SD) winter surveys per year. In 30 yr, we counted 1,215,821 shorebirds of 31 species. We used generalized linear models and multi-model inference to evaluate trends in shorebird abundance while accounting for local sources of variation. We conducted separate analyses for 14 species seen in at least 20 of the 30 yr of monitoring and for all shorebird species combined. During the study, the abundance of all species combined declined 66% (52% in the North Bay and 81% in the South Bay) with the most rapid decline in the first 10 yr of monitoring. Of 13 species for which year was in the top model, 10 species decreased in abundance and 3 species increased. Dunlin and Western Sandpiper accounted for the greatest losses in total numbers. The best-supported models to estimate trends in shorebirds included predictors for year and North Bay vs. South Bay. Of the local variables we considered, rainfall was included in 10 of the 15 best-supported models (including all species combined), negatively affecting the numbers of all species except Willets. The wetland restoration project was included in 5 top models, with a short-term positive impact. Raptor abundance was included in 3 top models with mixed results. Our results show that effective conservation and management of local shorebird populations must be linked with regional/global efforts if we are to reverse negative shorebird trends.

The World Economy: Effects of Risk Premia Falling Below Sustainable Levels in the US

2009 ◽  
Vol 210 ◽  
pp. 16-20
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Rapid Decline ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Third ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

The outlook for the US economy has improved modestly compared to our projections three months ago. This can be attributed largely to the unexpectedly rapid decline in risk premia, while the recovery in world trade appears to be being led by Asian markets, allowing a positive contribution to US growth from net trade in the short term. After a cumulative decline in output of 3.8 per cent in the US in the year to the second quarter of 2009, GDP probably recorded a rise in the third quarter, supported by a rise in consumer spending and a positive impact from net trade. We expect output to decline by 2.8 per cent in 2009 as a whole, and forecast a rise in US GDP of 1.3 per cent in 2010.

Features of degenerative mitral valve prolapse in the North East of China: repair characteristics, and short-term follow-up results

2020 ◽  
Vol 68 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia Corona ◽  
Paolo Barbier ◽  
Guangyu Liu ◽  
Osafo A. Annoh ◽  
Marcio Scorsin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mitral Valve ◽  
Mitral Valve Prolapse ◽  
Short Term ◽  
North East ◽  
The North

scholarly journals Paleolithic Diet—Effect on the Health Status and Performance of Athletes?

Nutrients ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1019
Author(s):  
Barbara Frączek ◽  
Aleksandra Pięta ◽  
Adrian Burda ◽  
Paulina Mazur-Kurach ◽  
Florentyna Tyrała
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Paleolithic Diet ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this meta-analysis was to review the impact of a Paleolithic diet (PD) on selected health indicators (body composition, lipid profile, blood pressure, and carbohydrate metabolism) in the short and long term of nutrition intervention in healthy and unhealthy adults. A systematic review of randomized controlled trials of 21 full-text original human studies was conducted. Both the PD and a variety of healthy diets (control diets (CDs)) caused reduction in anthropometric parameters, both in the short and long term. For many indicators, such as weight (body mass (BM)), body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference (WC), impact was stronger and especially found in the short term. All diets caused a decrease in total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglycerides (TG), albeit the impact of PD was stronger. Among long-term studies, only PD cased a decline in TC and LDL-C. Impact on blood pressure was observed mainly in the short term. PD caused a decrease in fasting plasma (fP) glucose, fP insulin, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in the short run, contrary to CD. In the long term, only PD caused a decrease in fP glucose and fP insulin. Lower positive impact of PD on performance was observed in the group without exercise. Positive effects of the PD on health and the lack of experiments among professional athletes require longer-term interventions to determine the effect of the Paleo diet on athletic performance.

Intrinsic and extrinsic sources of variation in the diets of harp and hooded seals revealed by fatty acid profiles

2009 ◽  
Vol 87 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Strahan Tucker ◽  
W. Don Bowen ◽  
Sara J. Iverson ◽  
Garry B. Stenson
Keyword(s):  
Fatty Acid ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Resource Polymorphism ◽  
The North ◽  
Pagophilus Groenlandicus ◽  
Ontogenetic Niche Shifts ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Sources Of Variation

Individuals of different age, sex, and morphology are expected to exhibit differences in dietary niches largely owing to sexual dimorphism, ontogenetic niche shifts, and resource polymorphism. Harp ( Pagophilus groenlandicus (Erxleben, 1777)) and hooded ( Cystophora cristata (Erxleben, 1777)) seals are geographically overlapping and highly migratory predators in the North Atlantic Ocean. These species differ in their diving behaviour, with hooded seals diving deeper, longer, and more associated with the continental shelf edge and deep ocean than harp seals. We examined blubber fatty acid (FA) composition (N = 37; 93% of total FA by mass) of harp (adults N = 294; juveniles N = 232) and hooded (adults N = 118; juveniles N = 38) seals to test hypotheses about sources of intrinsic (age and sex) and extrinsic (geographic location, season, year) variations in diets. A significant difference in FA profiles suggested dietary segregation between species. We found significant effects of sex and age class on FA profiles, with these being more pronounced in the highly size-dimorphic hooded seals than in harp seals. FA profiles of both species also varied between inshore and offshore sampling locations and between prebreeding and postbreeding periods. Finally, FA profiles of harp seals differed among years, which was coincident with large changes in prey distribution and availability in the mid-1990s.

Short-term tilt anomalies preceding local earthquakes near San Jose, California

1980 ◽  
Vol 70 (6) ◽  
pp. 2221-2228
Author(s):  
C. E. Mortensen ◽  
E. Y. Iwatsubo
Keyword(s):  
Partial Recovery ◽  
San Jose ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Origin Time ◽  
Central California ◽  
Local Earthquakes ◽  
The North ◽  
Surface Creep ◽  
The Times ◽  
Black Mountain

abstract A tilt anomaly preceded a pair of earthquakes (ML = 4.2, origin time 0014 UTC, and ML = 3.9, origin time 0018 UTC, both on 29 August 1978) on the Calaveras Fault near San Jose, California. These earthquakes occurred at hypocentral depths of 8.5 and 9.0 km, respectively, and were located 6.7 and 5.2 km northwest of the Mt. Hamilton tiltmeter site. The anomaly is similar in shape and time scale to signals observed on other tiltmeters at the times of recorded surface creep events. The anomaly began approximately 40 hr before the earthquake pair and consisted of gradual down-to-the-east tilting followed by rapid tilting down-to-the-north-northeast at a rate of 12 μrad/hr. This was followed by 1 hr of rapid down-to-the-east tilting amounting to 1.5 μrad. The maximum peak tilt of 10.6 μrad down-to-the-northeast was followed by gradual decelerating tilting down-to-the-southwest constituting partial recovery. An anomaly of nearly identical form, but smaller in amplitude and duration, preceded an ML = 2.2 aftershock on 5 September 1978. Other nearby earthquakes as large as ML = 4.7 have occurred without accompanying creep-like signals. A similar, but a much smaller (0.74 μrad) creep-event-like signal preceded an ML = 3.5 earthquake with epicenter 3 km east of the Black Mountain tiltmeter site. In general, however, short-term tilt anomalies such as these are not observed to precede local earthquakes within the central California tiltmeter network. The tilt signal preceding the 29 August earthquake pair may be interpreted in terms of a model of a propagating creep event, at depth, associated with seismic failure at a “stuck” patch on the fault. However, the data are not adequate to constrain the model sufficiently to constitute a test of the hypothesis.

Influence of Currents and Atmospheric Circulation on the Efficiency of European Anchovy Fishing during its Wintering off the Black Sea Coast of the Krasnodar Territory

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. N. Panov ◽  
E. O. Spiridonova ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Black Sea ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Mesoscale Eddy ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Short Term ◽  
European Anchovy ◽  
The North ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Black Sea Coast ◽  
Sea Coast

Russian fishermen harvest European anchovy primarily off the Black Sea coast of the Krasnodar Territory during its wintering and wintering migrations. At wintering grounds, temperature conditions become a secondary factor in determining the behaviour of commercial concentration of European anchovy, with wind and currents being the primary factors. Therefore, the aim of this work is to determine the potential use of daily data on water circulation and local atmospheric transport in short-term (1–7 days) forecasting of European anchovy fishing in the Black Sea. The research used the European anchovy fishery monitoring materials for January – March 2019, as well as daily maps of the Black and Azov Seas level anomalies (from satellite altimetry data) and surface atmospheric pressure and temperature in Europe (analysis) for the mentioned period. The dynamics of the catch rate and its relation to altimetry and atmospheric transport indicators in the north-eastern part of the Black Sea were investigated using graphical and correlation methods. This analysis showed that the main factor contributing to increased catches is intensification of northwest currents in the coastal 60-km zone. The effect of atmospheric transport on fishing efficiency depends on the mesoscale eddy structure of the nearshore current field. In the presence of an intense northwest current in the fishing area, southwest atmospheric transports have a positive effect on fishing, while in the presence of an anticyclonic meander of currents, northeast atmospheric transports become effective. The presence of maximum significant relationships when the determinants of fishing performance are shifted by 1–7 days allows making short-term predictions of fishing efficiency.

An Efficient Decision-Making Approach for Short Term Indoor Room Temperature Forecasting in Smart Environment: Evidence from India

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-42
Author(s):  
Kamal Pandey ◽  
Bhaskar Basu ◽  
Sandipan Karmakar
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Room Temperature ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Comfort Level ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Nonlinear Phenomenon ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Smart Buildings ◽  
Temperature Forecasting

“Smart cities” start with “Smart Buildings” that improve the quality of urban services while ensuring sustainability. The current scenario in India reveals that the corporate and residential building structures are incorporating various self-sustainable techniques. Out of the multiple factors governing the comfort of smart buildings, indoor room temperature is an important one, since it drives the need of cooling or heating through controlling systems. Around one-third of total energy consumption of commercial buildings in India is attributed to Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. Accurate prediction of indoor room temperature helps in creating an efficient equilibrium between energy consumption and comfort level of the building, thus providing opportunities for efficient decision making for energy optimization. Considering Indian climatic and geographical conditions, this paper proposes an efficient decision making approach using Bayesian Dynamic Models (BDM) for short-term indoor room temperature forecasting of a corporate building structure. The results obtained from Bayesian Dynamic linear model, using Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, have been compared to standard Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, and have been found to be more accurate. Forecasting of indoor room temperature is a highly nonlinear phenomenon, so to further improve the accuracy of the linear models, a hybrid modeling approach has been proposed. The inclusion of state-of-the-art nonlinear models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) improves the forecasting accuracy of the linear models significantly. Results show that the hybrid model obtained using BDM and ANN is the best fit model.

scholarly journals Spatial interactions between saithe (Pollachius virens) and hake (Merluccius merluccius) in the North Sea

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (6) ◽  
pp. 1342-1355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xochitl Cormon ◽  
Christophe Loots ◽  
Sandrine Vaz ◽  
Youen Vermard ◽  
Paul Marchal
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Trawl Survey ◽  
Spatial Interactions ◽  
Merluccius Merluccius ◽  
The North ◽  
Sediment Types ◽  
The North Sea

Spatial interactions between saithe (Pollachius virens) and hake (Merluccius merluccius) were investigated in the North Sea. Saithe is a well-established species in the North Sea, while occurrence of the less common hake has recently increased in the area. Spatial dynamics of these two species and their potential spatial interactions were explored using binomial generalized linear models (GLM) applied to the International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1991 to 2012. Models included different types of variables: (i) abiotic variables including sediment types, temperature, and bathymetry; (ii) biotic variables including potential competitors and potential preys presence; and (iii) spatial variables. The models were reduced and used to predict and map probable habitats of saithe, hake but also, for the first time in the North Sea, the distribution of the spatial overlap between these two species. Changes in distribution patterns of these two species and of their overlap were also investigated by comparing species’ presence and overlap probabilities predicted over an early (1991–1996) and a late period (2007–2012). The results show an increase in the probability over time of the overlap between saithe and hake along with an expansion towards the southwest and Scottish waters. These shifts follow trends observed in temperature data and might be indirectly induced by climate changes. Saithe, hake, and their overlap are positively influenced by potential preys and/or competitors, which confirms spatial co-occurrence of the species concerned and leads to the questions of predator–prey relationships and competition. Finally, the present study provides robust predictions concerning the spatial distribution of saithe, hake, and of their overlap in the North Sea, which may be of interest for fishery managers.

Memory impairments and its interaction with environmental factors in children aged 6 to 8 years living in gharb plain (N-w of Morocco)

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (S2) ◽  
pp. 264-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
F.-Z. Azzaoui ◽  
H. Hami ◽  
A.O.T. Ahami
Keyword(s):  
Working Memory ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Building Materials ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Rural Children ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
North West ◽  
Memory Impairments ◽  
The North

IntroductionThe “Gharb” plain (area of our study) localized in the North-West of Morocco is one of the most important agricultural and industrial regions of the Kingdom. Unfortunately, it suffered from the increase of different polluting human activities which expose the population, especially children, to serious neurobehavioral problems.Objective and aimsEvaluation of the short term memory and working memory in urban, periurban and rural schooled children (aged 6 to 8 years) living in Gharb plain and studying the relationship between the performance in this test and the quality of environment.MethodsMemory Sub-test of WISC III (Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children) and questionnaire about some environmental conditions.ResultsThe obtained results had shown that 3,64% periurban children and 3,03% rural children suffer from short memory impairments and no impairments in urban children were registered. For working memory, 21,05%, 47,06% and 66,67% of impairments were found in urban, periurban and rural children respectively.Moreover, a significant correlations between the performances of short term memory and building materials (p < 0.05), source of pollution near the school (p < 0.05), and consumption of well water (p < 0.001) were registered.ConclusionsThe memory impairments recorded in these children appeared in connection with environmental factors, but a deeper investigation is needed for studying all these factors, in addition to others (psychological, socio-economical, and nutritional) ones.

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