The Puzzle of Counterproliferation

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Rupal N. Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Nuclear Program ◽  
The Core ◽  
Key Questions ◽  
Nuclear Reversal

A brief introduction describes the scope of the project, the key questions, and why they deserve attention. It focuses specifically on two important questions: why would states opt to end their nuclear weapons pursuit and which set of policy levers is most likely to succeed in achieving this outcome? Second, this chapter presents the core argument in brief: the decision to end a nuclear program is significantly impacted by external factors. Further, it presents the existing literature—both scholarship examining nuclear decision-making as well as the research on inducements in international relations—that is used as the foundation for the analysis. Lastly, it defines nuclear reversal and establishes a framework for analyzing its variation, introduces the utility of bargaining with rewards and sanctions. It concludes by providing an overview of the entire book project and brief introductions of each chapter.

MAD and Taboo: US Expert Views on Nuclear Deterrence, Coercion, and Non-Use Norms

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul C Avey
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
International Relations ◽  
National Security ◽  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Nuclear Deterrence ◽  
Teaching And Research ◽  
Nuclear Arsenal ◽  
Policy Success ◽  
Key Issues

Abstract This research note reports views on nuclear deterrence, coercion, and non-use norms from surveys of 320 current and former US national security officials and 1,303 US-based international relations scholars. It finds that both groups hold relatively optimistic views on these key issues. Majorities express confidence that nuclear weapons are useful for deterrence, but are skeptical that a nuclear arsenal can translate into coercive foreign policy success. Respondents are also confident that the nuclear taboo constrains countries from using nuclear weapons in a first strike, but the intensity varies by the country in question. Although limited, the results demonstrate overlap between academics and policymakers on key nuclear concepts. To the extent that experts hold these topline nuclear views that can influence their decision-making, teaching, and research. The results also point to a common tension in thinking about deterrence against conventional attack and norms constraining nuclear first use.

Success and Failure in Nuclear Reversal

2020 ◽  
pp. 115-129
Author(s):  
Rupal N. Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Nuclear Proliferation ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Nuclear Program ◽  
Reversal Process ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nuclear Reversal

To better understand the impact of inducements and to get a broader sense of the process of nuclear reversal, this chapter presents two vignettes of nuclear proliferation: the critical cases of Libya and China. These analyses help isolate core distinctions from the historical record: nuclear reversers from the current proliferators, allies from adversaries, those that tried and succeeded decades ago, and those that remained committed for decades with a failing nuclear program and ultimately abandoned it. These illustrative vignettes of success and failure help to delve deeper into the nuclear reversal process. This chapter provides a better understanding of how states embark on and are incentivized to end their pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Theory of Nuclear Reversal

2020 ◽  
pp. 26-59
Author(s):  
Rupal N. Mehta
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Empirical Testing ◽  
Leadership Change ◽  
Nuclear Program ◽  
The Core ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nuclear Reversal

This chapter presents the core theoretical framework in this study: an analysis of nuclear reversal at the systemic level and the conditions under which the international community is able to induce a proliferator to abandon a nascent nuclear program. Specifically, it introduces a novel theoretical approach that highlights the necessity to negotiate with both positive and negative inducements in the shadow of military force. In addition to including the core hypotheses for empirical testing, it includes a discussion of probabilistic conditions to help examine a broader set of proliferation cases. These conditions include the impact of leadership change on the association between inducements and nuclear reversal, as well as how a proliferator’s relationship with the United States influences the likelihood of nuclear reversal. It concludes with potential limitations and overarching policy implications of the framework.

The Myth of the Nuclear Revolution

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keir A. Lieber ◽  
Daryl G. Press
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Technological Changes ◽  
Arms Races ◽  
The Core ◽  
Nuclear Age ◽  
The Cold War

Leading analysts have predicted for decades that nuclear weapons would help pacify international politics. The core notion is that countries protected by these fearsome weapons can stop competing so intensely with their adversaries: they can end their arms races, scale back their alliances, and stop jockeying for strategic territory. But rarely have theory and practice been so opposed. Why do international relations in the nuclear age remain so competitive? Indeed, why are today's major geopolitical rivalries intensifying? This book tackles the central puzzle of the nuclear age: the persistence of intense geopolitical competition in the shadow of nuclear weapons. The book explains why the Cold War superpowers raced so feverishly against each other; why the creation of “mutual assured destruction” does not ensure peace; and why the rapid technological changes of the 21st century will weaken deterrence in critical hotspots around the world. By explaining how the nuclear revolution falls short, the book discovers answers to the most pressing questions about deterrence in the coming decades: how much capability is required for a reliable nuclear deterrent, how conventional conflicts may become nuclear wars, and how great care is required now to prevent new technology from ushering in an age of nuclear instability.

Kegunaan Informasi Akuntansi dalam Pengambilan Keputusan Internal oleh Unit Akuntansi Kuasa Pengguna Anggaran (UAKPA)

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 73-91
Author(s):  
Karno Pandu Wibowo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Accounting Information ◽  
Information Use ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Accrual Accounting ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Level Of Use ◽  
Accrual Basis ◽  
Cash Basis

This study aims to determine the usefulness level of accounting information (on cash basis and accrual basis) in central goverment agencies internal decision-making process. In addition, this study also aims to determine the influence of the organization’s external factors, the organization's internal factors and Individual Actor’s Characteristic Related Factors on the level of use of accounting information in central goverment agencies internal decision making.The research show that  level of accrual accounting information use in the context of internal decision making is high. In addition it showed differences between  level of cash-based accounting information use and accrual-based accounting information use. This study also addressed that the organization’s external factors, the organization's internal factors and individual actor’s characteristic related factors significantly influence both level of accounting information use  on cash basis and accrual basis in the internal decision-making. Except for the organization’s external factors  did not significantly affect the level of accrual accounting information use  in the internal decision-making.   Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui tingkat kegunaan informasi akuntansi (berbasis kas dan akrual) dalam proses pengambilan keputusan internal Unit Akuntansi Kuasa Pengguna Anggaran (UAKPA). Selain itu penelitian ini juga bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh faktor eksternal organisasi, faktor internal organisasi dan faktor karakteristik individu pengguna terhadap tingkat penggunaan informasi akuntansi dalam pengambilan keputusan internal Unit Akuntansi Kuasa Pengguna Anggaran (UAKPA).Temuan peneliti menunjukan bahwa tingkat penggunaan informasi akuntansi berbasis akrual tinggi dalam rangka pengambilan keputusan internal. Selain itu penelitian menunjukan adanya perbedaan tingkat penggunaan antara informasi akutansi berbasis kas dan informasi akutansi berbasis akrual. Penelitian juga menujukan bahwa faktor eksternal organisasi, faktor internal organisasi dan faktor karakteristik individu pengguna berpengaruh signifikan terhadap tingkat penggunaan informasi akuntansi (berbasis kas dan akrual) dalam pengambilan keputusan internal. Kecuali untuk faktor eksternal organisasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap tingkat penggunaan informasi akuntansi akrual dalam pengambilan keputusan internal.

The Rise and Fall of Great Powers

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geir Lundestad
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
The United States ◽  
Great Powers ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
The West ◽  
Economic Modernization

There are no laws in history. Realists, liberals, and others are both right and wrong. Although no one can be certain that military incidents may not happen, for the foreseeable future China and the United States are unlikely to favor major war. They have cooperated well for almost four decades now. China is likely to continue to focus on its economic modernization. It has far to go to measure up to the West. The American-Chinese economies are still complementary. A conflict with the United States or even with China’s neighbors would have damaging repercussions for China’s economic goals. The United States is so strong that it would make little sense for China to take it on militarily. There are also other deterrents against war, from nuclear weapons to emerging norms about international relations. It is anybody’s guess what will happen after the next few decades. History indicates anything is possible.

Emotional Choices

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Markwica
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Choice Behavior ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Cuban Missile Crisis ◽  
Coercive Diplomacy ◽  
The Core ◽  
Present Book ◽  
Action Model ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Dynamic Interplay

In coercive diplomacy, states threaten military action to persuade opponents to change their behavior. The goal is to achieve a target’s compliance without incurring the cost in blood and treasure of military intervention. Coercers typically employ this strategy toward weaker actors, but targets often refuse to submit and the parties enter into war. To explain these puzzling failures of coercive diplomacy, existing accounts generally refer to coercers’ perceived lack of resolve or targets’ social norms and identities. What these approaches either neglect or do not examine systematically is the role that emotions play in these encounters. The present book contends that target leaders’ affective experience can shape their decision-making in significant ways. Drawing on research in psychology and sociology, the study introduces an additional, emotion-based action model besides the traditional logics of consequences and appropriateness. This logic of affect, or emotional choice theory, posits that target leaders’ choice behavior is influenced by the dynamic interplay between their norms, identities, and five key emotions, namely fear, anger, hope, pride, and humiliation. The core of the action model consists of a series of propositions that specify the emotional conditions under which target leaders are likely to accept or reject a coercer’s demands. The book applies the logic of affect to Nikita Khrushchev’s decision-making during the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 and Saddam Hussein’s choice behavior in the Gulf conflict in 1990–91, offering a novel explanation for why coercive diplomacy succeeded in one case but not in the other.

From Prime Ministerial Power to Core Executive

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. A. W. Rhodes
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Approaches To Studying ◽  
The Core ◽  
Executive Politics ◽  
Core Executive ◽  
The Government ◽  
Different Parts

The core executive is a new concept replacing the conventional debate about the power of the prime minister and the Cabinet. It refers to all those organizations and procedures that coordinate central government policies, and act as final arbiters of conflict between different parts of the government machine. In brief, the ‘core executive’ is the heart of the machine. The chapter reviews the several approaches to studying the British executive: prime ministerial government; prime ministerial cliques; Cabinet government; ministerial government; segmented decision-making; and bureaucratic coordination. It then discusses several ways forward by developing new theory and methods. The Afterword discusses the core executive as interlocking networks, and the fluctuating patterns of executive politics.

South Korea in 2016

Asian Survey ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-110
Author(s):  
Gi-Wook Shin ◽  
Rennie J. Moon
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
South Korea ◽  
High Altitude ◽  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Heavy Industry ◽  
Financial Difficulties ◽  
Official Position ◽  
Leadership Crisis ◽  
High Altitude Area

President Park faced a leadership crisis after revelations that she relied on a confidant with no official position for key decision-making in state affairs. Heavy industry met with serious financial difficulties, and a strong anti-corruption law was enacted. North Korea tested more nuclear weapons and missiles. Controversy over the deployment of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense strained South Korea’s relations with China.

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