Crisis in Machinery Building: The Roots of Germany’s Economic Malaise?
The health and state of the German economy has been the dominant topic in the European business press since at least 1994, when the post-unification boom came to an end, and with good reason. Home to 82 million people, it is Europe’s largest economy. But it has also been the slowest-growing economy within the European Union since 1994, averaging just 1.6 per cent annually, a period in which it has also lagged behind the United States in every year except 2001. The DAX index of Germany’s top companies has experienced a sharper and more sustained downturn than the stock markets in the United States, United Kingdom, and France, indicative of a growing malaise amongst the country’s largest industrial and financial firms (Smiley 2002: 4). Inward foreign direct investment has slowed to a trickle, and a large proportion of its biggest companies are diverting their own investments to production sites abroad. The country’s share of global exports has declined from 11.8 per cent to 9.7 per cent over the decade between 1992 and 2002 (The Economist 2002a: S8). Meanwhile, the national unemployment rate has climbed to nearly 10 per cent over the same period, according to German statistics (or 8.3 per cent using European Union statistics) (The Economist 2002b: S13). There is no shortage of diagnoses for what allegedly ails the German economy these days. For many in the same business press, the answer is seductively simple: Germany is ‘stifled by a hugely restrictive and intrusive web of regulations, and weighed down by one of the most expensive, inflexible and protected labour forces in the world’ (Smiley 2002: S4). While there is undoubtedly some truth to this assessment, it is also simple-minded in the extreme. This chapter provides an alternative interpretation of the roots of Germany’s economic problems by focusing on one of its bedrock industries: mechanical engineering (in particular, its machinery and machine tool industry). Tracing the evolution of this key industry from a point early in the 1990s when it first encountered a serious competitive setback.