The Future of the Science of Complex Systems?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Thurner ◽  
Rudolf Hanel ◽  
Peter Klimekl
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Scaling Laws ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
First Century ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
New Directions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Universality Classes ◽  
Century Science

The chapter is a mini outlook on the field. The classic achievenments in complexity science are mentioned, and we summarize how the new directions contained in this book might open new doors into a truly twenty-first-century science of complex systems.We do that by clarifying the origin of scaling laws, in particular for driven non-equilibrium systems, deriving the statistics of driven systems on the basis of driving and relaxing processes, categorizing probabilistic complex systems into universality classes, by developing ways for meaningful generalizations of statistical mechanics, and information theory so that they become useful for complex systems, and finally, by unifying the different approaches to evolution and co-evolution into a single mathematical framework that can serve as the basis for understanding co-evolutionary dynamics of states and interactions. We comment on our view of the role of artificial intelligence and our opinion on the future of science of complex systems.

scholarly journals The evolution of predictive models and tourism

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Najmeh Gharibi
Keyword(s):  
Technology Acceptance ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technology Acceptance Models ◽  
New Directions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Outcomes ◽  
Tourism Services

Purpose This study aims to investigate the predictive technology acceptance models and their evolution in the tourism context. These predictive models make a knowledgeable decision about the possibility of future outcomes by analysing data. As futurists are interested in making a prediction about the likelihood of different behaviours over time, researchers of these predictive models have focussed on behaviour and predicting the intentions of users. This study proposes to demonstrate the revolution of these models and how are changed overtime. It also indicates the role of them in future studies. Design/methodology/approach By reviewing the predictive models and literature, this study looks in-depth in the process of alteration of these models. Findings This study explores the reasons of the evolution of predictive models and how they are changed. It shed light on the role of predictive models in future research and will suggest new directions for forthcoming studies. Research limitations/implications One of the main limitations of this study is that as the world is currently struggling with COVID-19 and predictability of these models will be changed. As the future is disruptive, it cannot be concluded that how these models will be altered in future. Practical implications Role of predictive behavioural models of tourists is fundamentally crucial in assessing the performance of planners and marketers of tourism services in the future. It will also vastly helps the successful development of tourism sectors, and it has practical value for all tourism stakeholders. Originality/value Few studies have focussed on the evaluation of these models and their role in future research.

Types of scientific rationality in aspects of the three paradigm

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-30
Author(s):  
Карпин ◽  
V. Karpin ◽  
Живогляд ◽  
R. Zhivoglyad ◽  
Гудкова ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Basic Principle ◽  
Self Organization ◽  
Scientific Rationality ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
The Third ◽  
Self Development ◽  
The Future

Since the release of the well-known work of W. Weaver «Science and Complexity» (1948) only V.S. Stepin had taken some significant efforts to develop the doctrine of the three types of systems in nature. In this case, the main achievements of V.S. Stepin in postnonclassic reduced to two fundamental results: violation of the basic principle of T. Kuhn´s contradictions when changing paradigms (V.S. Stepin shows the effect of «investments», when complex systems operate classical and nonclassical rationality simultaneously) and repeated emphasis on the possibility of «change ... the probability of emerging of other (the system) conditions». At the same time, V.S. Stepin in his last works (monographs) identified a particular role of self-organization and self-development in case of complex biosocial systems. All this in theory of chaos and self-organization form 5 basic principles of functioning of complexity (or systems of the third type - STT). In fact, V.S. Stepin laid the foundation for the future (new) philosophy and developed now theory of chaos and self-organization in which humanity moved into the area of uncertainty of living (social in particular) systems completely. However, the rationality of the third type (postnonclassic) requires corrections and additions, as shown in a number of monographs of V.S. Stepin.

scholarly journals Theology, Metaphysics, and Science: Twenty-First Century Hermeneutical Allies, Strangers, or Enemies?

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 226-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter M. Antoci
Keyword(s):  
Social Economic ◽  
Human Experience ◽  
First Century ◽  
Global Context ◽  
Fields Of Study ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Scientific Endeavor

This article answers the question of whether the study of theology and metaphysics can be classified currently, or ever qualify in the future, as a scientific endeavor. Rather than choose a particular theology or metaphysics as the subject of inquiry, this essay argues that it is not only necessary to recognize the role of hermeneutics within different fields of study, but that it is also necessary to begin a human hermeneutic with human experience. Changes in our global context, whether social, economic, political, or environmental, are important drivers of hermeneutical evolution. We should expect no less change in the areas of theology, metaphysics, and science. The question of truth, whether subjective or objective, is a hermeneutical one.

Technologies in medicine of the future (sociological view)

2020 ◽  
pp. 15-27
Author(s):  
O. Lebed ◽  
N. Prisyazhnaya ◽  
S. Kamaletdinova
Keyword(s):  
Health Economics ◽  
Basic Science ◽  
Medical Insurance ◽  
Medical Specialists ◽  
Sociology Of Medicine ◽  
New Directions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Medical University ◽  
Sociological View

The study of ideas about the future of medicine is one of the new directions of modern sociology of medicine. At the Departmentof sociology of medicine, health economics and medical insurance of the First state medical University, an analysis of the opinions of senior medical specialists was conducted, which showed that the development of medicine is based on its relationship with science. This will require an understanding of the role of basic science in the training of a modern doctor.

scholarly journals Studying development in the 21st Century

2008 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 345-356
Author(s):  
Michael S. C. Thomas ◽  
Gert Westermann ◽  
Denis Mareschal ◽  
Mark H. Johnson ◽  
Sylvain Sirois ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Development ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Future Study ◽  
First Century ◽  
Target Article ◽  
The Future ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractIn this response, we consider four main issues arising from the commentaries to the target article. These include further details of the theory of interactive specialization, the relationship between neuroconstructivism and selectionism, the implications of neuroconstructivism for the notion of representation, and the role of genetics in theories of development. We conclude by stressing the importance of multidisciplinary approaches in the future study of cognitive development and by identifying the directions in which neuroconstructivism can expand in the Twenty-first Century.

Habad, the Rebbe, and the Messiah in the Twenty-First Century

2020 ◽  
pp. 357-384
Author(s):  
Naftali Loewenthal
Keyword(s):  
Jewish Community ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
First Century ◽  
Jewish Society ◽  
The Future ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Individual

We have looked at a number of aspects of the Habad-Lubavitch movement in their historical context: its relationship with general Jewish society, the theme of outreach, including beyond the Jewish community, rationalism, the role of the individual, contemplation, women, the messianic idea, and the fact that Rabbi Menachem Mendel passed away without a successor. This concluding chapter explores some further theological questions: What are the positions within Habad in relation to the teachings of the last Rebbe and his messianic thrust? What might the contemporary movement have to say for the future?

scholarly journals Jet–Precipitation Relation and Future Change of the Mei-Yu–Baiu Rainband and Subtropical Jet in CMIP5 Coupled GCM Simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (8) ◽  
pp. 2247-2259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takeshi Horinouchi ◽  
Shinji Matsumura ◽  
Tomoaki Ose ◽  
Yukari N. Takayabu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
First Century ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Subtropical Jet ◽  
Coupled Climate Models ◽  
The Future ◽  
Asian Summer

Abstract Through extensive modeling efforts, it has been established that the ongoing global warming will increase the overall precipitation associated with the East Asian summer monsoon, but the future change of its spatial distribution has not reached a consensus. In this study, meridional shifts of the mei-yu–baiu rainband are studied in association with the subtropical jet by using outputs from atmosphere–ocean coupled climate models provided by CMIP5. The models reproduce observed associations between the jet and precipitation over wide time scales from synoptic to interannual. The same relation is found in intermodel differences in simulated climatology, so that the meridional locations of the jet and baiu precipitation are positively correlated. The multimodel-mean projection suggests that the both are shifted southward by the late twenty-first century. This shift is not inconsistent with the projected tropical expansion, not only because the change is local but also because the projected tropical expansion occurs mainly in the Southern Hemisphere. No significant future change in the continental mei-yu precipitation location is identified, which might be because the jet change is weak there. For comparison, the summertime Atlantic jet position, which shifts northward, is investigated briefly. This study suggests that the future change of the subtropical jet is an important aspect to investigate possible future changes of the baiu rainband, and it prompts further studies including the role of the ocean.

scholarly journals Treatment, Overdose, and Finding the Road to Recovery

Commonwealth ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (2-3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael T. Flaherty
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
General Practice ◽  
Harm Reduction ◽  
Private Insurance ◽  
First Century ◽  
Societal Factors ◽  
The Road ◽  
Fertile Ground ◽  
Century Science

To address the role of treatment in Pennsylvania’s overdose challenge, certain ideological impediments must be identified and addressed. A separateness of harm reduction from treatment as different approaches, a separateness of public health and public safety as partners in the solution, of public health from private insurance for treating the illness must all be overcome by a prioritized, unified vision. Without this, today’s policies cannot build on the available twenty-­first-­century science in both specialty care and general practice—let alone in our communities. Coupled with societal factors including universal stigma for the illness and those suffering it, these divides have created fertile ground for today’s predictable epidemic. Through collective determination with increased access to described interventions and treatment, including expanded access to medication-­assisted treatments and an enhanced, broadened, skilled interdisciplinary and peer workforce built on a “recovery” philosophy, locally implemented efforts with county, state, and federal leadership can reverse the epidemic.

scholarly journals The Ecumenical Struggle in South Africa: The Role of Ecumenical Movements and Liberation Organisations from 1966

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Duncan ◽  
Anthony Egan
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
First Century ◽  
Significant Activity ◽  
Significant Reversal ◽  
The Future ◽  
Twenty First Century

 In contemporary South Africa, it would be true to say that there is no longer any urgency with regard to organic union as an aim of ecumenism. This marks a significant reversal of the pre-1994 situation where political and other motives stimulated the impulse. This is not only a local situation, for ecumenism has taken on a different character globally. Former alignments have weakened, and emerging alignments challenge former assumptions regarding ecumenism—and are no less political than formerly within the Pentecostal bloc, which has ousted the SACC from its former place of privilege in the government’s affections. This is not to say that nothing has been happening on the ecumenical scene. There has been significant activity which is ongoing and offers hope for the future of cooperation. This article includes material up to the present and explores these recent activities of the twenty-first century.

The Future of Quantitative Viral Ecology

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua S. Weitz
Keyword(s):  
Inverse Problems ◽  
Microbial Communities ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Ecological Role ◽  
Viral Ecology ◽  
Forward Problems ◽  
The Future

This chapter presents a perspective on the types of developments, both technical and theoretical, that are forthcoming and the influence they are likely to have in shaping our view of the diversity and functions of environmental viruses. It focuses on theoretical challenges of two kinds: “forward” problems and “inverse” problems. It argues that for purely technological reasons, many measurements in viral ecology have not been comparable, in a quantitative sense. Moreover, there have been relatively few attempts to integrate what virus ecologists have measured into models of microbial communities. Whatever integration has occurred has focused almost exclusively on lab-based population and evolutionary dynamics. There is a pressing need to understand the ecological role of viruses of microbes, which requires an increasing number of theorists to investigate the interactions between microbes and the viruses that infect them.

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