Models of Transformative Decision-Making

2020 ◽  
pp. 73-99
Author(s):  
Samuel Zimmerman ◽  
Tomer Ullman
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Hierarchical Model ◽  
Distance Function ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Core Beliefs ◽  
Transformative Experience ◽  
Novel Objects ◽  
The Difference

Deciding to undergo a transformative experience present unique challenges for a reasonable decision-maker, and for any attempt to give a formal account of how people can make such decisions. This chapter focuses on the challenges of novelty and change. It develops a normative hierarchical model for decision-making over novel objects, and show how it captures the commonsense intuition that we can rationally decide to try a new experience, but also that such decisions can be graded in difficulty. It then presents a framework for how people can think about big decisions that will affect their core beliefs, desires, and ultimately themselves, by modeling this as a decision process of choosing between different selves. Empirical evidence is used to refine different sub-models of this meta-reasoning process, including the asymmetric treatment of current and future utilities, the difference between future utilities and future beliefs, and a distance function between selves that is separate from considerations of future happiness.

scholarly journals Individuals with ventromedial frontal damage have more unstable but still fundamentally transitive preferences

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda Q. Yu ◽  
Jason Dana ◽  
Joseph W. Kable
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Healthy Controls ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
Rational Choices ◽  
The Brain ◽  
Intransitive Preferences ◽  
Rational Decisions

AbstractThough the ventromedial frontal lobes (VMF) are clearly important for decision-making, the precise causal role of the VMF in the decision process has still not yet fully been established. Previous studies have suggested that individuals with VMF damage violate a hallmark axiom of rational decisions by having intransitive preferences (i.e., preferring A to B, B to C, but C to A), as these individuals are more likely to make cyclical choices (i.e., choosing C over A after previously choosing A over B and B over C). However, these prior studies cannot properly distinguish between two possibilities regarding effects of VMF damage: are individuals with VMF damage prone to choosing irrationally, or are their preferences simply more variable? We had individuals with focal VMF damage, individuals with other frontal damage, and healthy controls make repeated choices across three categories – artwork, chocolate bar brands, and gambles. Using sophisticated tests of transitivity, we find that, without exception, individuals with VMF damage made rational decisions consistent with transitive preferences, even though they more frequently exhibit choice cycles due to a greater variability in their preferences across time. That is, the VMF is necessary for having strong and reliable preferences across time and context, but not for being a rational decision maker. We conclude that VMF damage affects the noisiness with which value is assessed, but not the consistency with which value is sought.Significance statementThe VMF is a part of the brain that is thought to be one of the most important for preference-based choice. Despite this, whether it is needed to make rational choices at all is unknown. Previous studies have not discriminated between different possibilities regarding the critical necessary role that the VMF plays in value-based choice. Our study shows that individuals with VMF damage still make rational decisions consistent with what they prefer, but their choices are more variable and less reliable. That is, the VMF is important for the noisiness with which value is assessed, but not the consistency with which value is sought. This result has widespread implications for rethinking the role of VMF in decision-making.

Decision Making

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Bialek ◽  
Artur Domurat ◽  
Ethan Andrew Meyers
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Rational Choice ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Human Biology ◽  
Rational Choices ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
The Way

In this chapter, the way people consider possibilities in decision making are unpacked and explored. It begins by outlining the concept of rational choice – what a decision maker ought to choose. Specifically, it discusses how, for a given decision, a rational choice can (or cannot) be determined. Whether people often make rational choices, and what can be done to shift people toward making rational choices more often. The chapter also portrays decision making in a human light: explaining how defining a rational choice and the decision process are constrained by human biology and behavior. The steps required to make a decision are delineated, and at each step, it is briefly discussed when and how people can diverge from what they ought to be doing or choosing. The chapter closes by discussing how people evaluate decisions after they have made them and the factors that affect the evaluation.

scholarly journals A Survey on Entropy and Economic Behaviour

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ziv Hellman ◽  
Ron Peretz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Repeated Games ◽  
Natural Extension ◽  
Partial Ordering ◽  
Limited Attention ◽  
Interactive Games ◽  
Economic Behaviour ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Bounded Recall

Entropy plays a significant role in the study of games and economic behaviour in several ways. A decision maker faced with an n-fold repetition of a decision-making problem needs to apply strategies that become increasingly complex as n increases. When several players are involved in selecting strategies in interactive games, bounds on the memories and cognitive capacities of the players can affect possible outcomes. A player who can recall only the last k periods of history is said to have bounded recall of capacity k. We present here a brief survey of results of games played by players with different bounded recall capacities, in particular those indicating surprisingly strong relations between memory and entropy in the study of the min-max values of repeated games with bounded recall. In addition, we consider uses of entropy in measuring the value of information of noisy signal structures, also known as experiments. These are represented by stochastic matrices, with the rows representing states of the world and the columns possible signals. The classic ordering of experiments, due to David Blackwell and based on decision-making criteria, is a partial ordering, which has led to attempts to extend this ordering to a total ordering. If a decision maker has a prior distribution over the states, receipt of a signal yields a posterior. The difference between the entropy of a prior and the expected entropy of the set of possible posteriors has been proposed as a natural extension of the Blackwell ordering. We survey this alongside the theory of rational inattention, which posits that, since individuals have limited attention, they do not always follow every single piece of economic news in planning their economic behaviour. By modelling attention limits as finite channel capacity in the sense of Shannon, economists have developed a theory that explains a range of observed economic behavioural phenomena well.

Navigating Through Moral Dilemmas and Roadblocks to Decision Making

2019 ◽  
pp. 19-35
Author(s):  
Penelope Debs Keough
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Life Experiences ◽  
Moral Dilemmas ◽  
The Other ◽  
Core Beliefs ◽  
Difficult Decision ◽  
The Family

When faced with a difficult decision, one often wades through the quagmire of indecision first. The purpose of this chapter is to analyze steps to take to explore concrete variables that contribute to positive and conclusive solutions to the decision process. Various contributors to making a decision, explored in the chapter include but are not limited to 1) one's values, 2) one's core beliefs, 3) events in one's life experiences, 4) one's cultural lens, and 5) position in the family. But indecision can be worse than not making difficult decision. What causes procrastination in some individuals when making a decision? The chapter also explores roadblocks to decision making: the action required to move in one direction or the other. Feeling the fear and moving forward anyway can paralyze persons so the chapter presents ways to ameliorate the fear of making a “bad” decision.

scholarly journals Hierarchical model of competition under uncertainty

2021 ◽  
pp. 18-29
Author(s):  
A. E. Bardin ◽  
J. N. Zhiteneva
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Hierarchical Structure ◽  
Hierarchical Model ◽  
Optimal Strategy ◽  
Quadratic Model ◽  
Equilibrium Strategy ◽  
Cournot Oligopoly ◽  
Linear Quadratic ◽  
Firm Competition

Oligopoly is a basic concept in the theory of competition. This structure is the central object of research in the economics of markets. There are many mathematical models of the market that are formalized in the form of an oligopoly in economic theory. The Cournot oligopoly is an elementary mathematical model of competition. The principle of equilibrium formalizes the non-cooperative nature of the conflict. Each player chooses the equilibrium strategy of behavior that provides the greatest profit, provided that the other competitors adhere to their equilibrium strategies. The Stackelberg model describes a two-level hierarchical model of firm competition. The top-level player (center, leader) chooses his strategy, assuming reasonable (optimal) decision-making by the lower-level players. Lower-level players (agents, followers) recognize the leadership of the center. They consider the center's strategies known. These players choose their strategies, wanting to maximize their payoff functions. This hierarchical structure is from a game point of view a case of a hierarchical game Gamma1. The indefinite uncontrolled factors (uncertainties) are the values for which only the range of possible values is known in this paper. Recently, studies of game models under uncertainty have been actively conducted. In particular, non-coalitional games under uncertainty are investigated. The concepts of risk and regret are formalized in various ways in the theory of problems with uncertainty. At the same time, the decision-maker takes into account both the expected losses and the possibility of favorable actions of factors beyond his control.\nThis article examines the two-level hierarchical structure of decision-making in the problem of firm competition. A linear-quadratic model with two levels of hierarchy is considered. This model uses the concepts of Cournot and Stackelberg under uncertainty. Uncontrolled factors (uncertainties) are identified with the actions of the importing company. The Wald and Savage principles are used to formalize the solution. According to Wald's maximin criterion, game with nature is seen as a conflict with a player who wants to harm the decision-maker as much as possible.\n\nSavage's minimax regret criterion, when choosing the optimal strategy, focuses not on winning, but on regret. As an optimal strategy, the strategy is chosen in which the amount of regret in the worst conditions is minimal. A new approach to decision-making in the game with nature is formalized. It allows you to combine the positive features of both principles and weaken their negative properties. The concept of U-optimal solution of the problem in terms of risks and regrets is considered.\nThe problems of formalization of some types of optimal solutions for a specific linear-quadratic problem with two levels of hierarchy are solved.

A New Stochastic MCDM Approach Based on COPRAS

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (03) ◽  
pp. 857-882 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yelda Ayrim ◽  
Kumru Didem Atalay ◽  
Gülin Feryal Can
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Uniform Distribution ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Stochastic Structure ◽  
Random Numbers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Cost And Benefit ◽  
Criteria Importance

This study proposes a novel integrated Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS) approach by using stochastic decision process named as Stochastic COPRAS (COPRAS-S) to increase the evaluation performance of COPRAS. In COPRAS-S, criteria importance weights and the performance values of alternatives are determined by generating random numbers from uniform distribution in a range of minimum and maximum values of a limited number of decision-maker evaluations. Thus, the numbers of experts are increased and decision-making process is performed in an effective way because different opinions are incorporated. In addition, randomness feature brought with vagueness in decision is modeled in this process. A special normalization approach based on standard deviation is also implemented in COPRAS-S. In this way, cost and benefit type criteria are evaluated in a different way. This proposed stochastic structure for COPRAS is a practical and powerful tool that strengthens the decision.

scholarly journals Dissociable mechanisms govern when and how strongly reward attributes affect decisions

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia U. Maier ◽  
Anjali Raja Beharelle ◽  
Rafael Polanía ◽  
Christian C. Ruff ◽  
Todd A. Hare
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Individual Differences ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Neural Activity ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Computational Models ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Drift Diffusion Model ◽  
Drift Diffusion ◽  
Relative Weighting

AbstractTheories and computational models of decision making usually focus on how strongly different attributes are weighted in choice, e.g., as a function of their importance or salience to the decision-maker. However, when different attributes impact on the decision process is a question that has received far less attention. Here, we investigated whether attribute consideration timing has a unique influence on decision making using a time-varying drift diffusion model and data from four separate experiments. Experimental manipulations of attention and neural activity demonstrated that we can dissociate the processes that determine the relative weighting strength and timing of attribute consideration. Thus, the processes determining either the weighting strengths or the timing of attributes in decision making can adapt independently to changes in the environment or goals. Quantifying these separate influences of timing and weighting on choice improves our understanding and predictions of individual differences in decision behaviour.

scholarly journals Sustainability of dairy production in Turkey: A case study

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (No. 1) ◽  
pp. 25-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Akcaoz ◽  
H. Kizilay
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
Dairy Production ◽  
Important Decision ◽  
Production Activity ◽  
Large Farm ◽  
Main Material

The aim of this paper is to show some empirical evidence of the sustainability and decision making in dairy production in Turkey. The main material of the study was obtained from the data collected by the survey conducted in the villages in Merkez, Manavgat and Serik districts of the Antalya province. Within the context of the research, 75 farmers were interviewed in the 2007 production season. The research results indicate that the households are the most important decision maker in terms of farming decisions. 56.3% of the farmers in the small farms, 61.5% of the farmers in the medium-size farms and 41.2% of the farmers in the large farm noted that they could quit dairy production activity if they received a fixed salary.

Minimizing Missed Opportunities: Modeling Relationships between the State and Business in Russia

2009 ◽  
pp. 42-61
Author(s):  
A. Oleynik
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Common Good ◽  
The State ◽  
Power Relationships ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Missed Opportunities ◽  
Power Domination ◽  
Individual Decision Making ◽  
Optimal Outcomes

Power involves a number of models of choice: maximizing, satisficing, coercion, and minimizing missed opportunities. The latter is explored in detail and linked to a particular type of power, domination by virtue of a constellation of interests. It is shown that domination by virtue of a constellation of interests calls for justification through references to a common good, i.e. a rent to be shared between Principal and Agent. Two sources of sub-optimal outcomes are compared: individual decision-making and interactions. Interactions organized in the form of power relationships lead to sub-optimal outcomes for at least one side, Agent. Some empirical evidence from Russia is provided for illustrative purposes.

Information support for expert evaluation of the states of the external environment

2020 ◽  
pp. 71-76
Author(s):  
Rasol Murtadha Najah
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Information Support ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Variables ◽  
Decision Making Models ◽  
The Difference ◽  
State Of The Environment

This article discusses the application of methods to enhance the knowledge of experts to build a decision-making model based on the processing of physical data on the real state of the environment. Environmental parameters determine its ecological state. To carry out research in the field of expert assessment of environmental conditions, the analysis of known works in this field is carried out. The results of the analysis made it possible to justify the relevance of the application of analytical, stochastic models and models based on methods of enhancing the knowledge of experts — experts. It is concluded that the results of using analytical and stochastic objects are inaccurate, due to the complexity and poor mathematical description of the objects. The relevance of developing information support for an expert assessment of environmental conditions is substantiated. The difference of this article is that based on the analysis of the application of expert methods for assessing the state of the environment, a fuzzy logic adoption model and information support for assessing the environmental state of the environment are proposed. The formalization of the parameters of decision-making models using linguistic and fuzzy variables is considered. The formalization of parameters of decision-making models using linguistic and fuzzy variables was considered. The model’s description of fuzzy inference is given. The use of information support for environment state assessment is shown on the example of experts assessing of the land desertification stage.

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