Decision-Making by Water Managers Despite Climate Uncertainty

Author(s):  
Rob Wilby ◽  
Conor Murphy

Some of the most profound impacts of climate variability and change are expected in the water sector. These include more frequent, severe, and persistent droughts; more frequent, widespread, and extreme floods; more episodic and harmful water pollution episodes. Coping with more variable water supplies alongside rising demand will involve institutional reform, new infrastructure, adjustments to operations, and water demand management. A smarter, decision-led approach to deploying climate information in water management will also be required. This chapter begins with an overview of analytical frameworks for assessing and adapting water resource systems to uncertain climate threats and opportunities. It then gives examples of the diverse sources of information that are being accessed by some water managers to establish plausible ranges of climate change as a basis for decision-making. Examples from Denver, Colorado, and Dublin, Republic of Ireland show how narratives of future system changes and historical data can help test the efficacy of decisions under uncertainty. These two case studies demonstrate how early dialogue and information exchange among practitioners and scientists are fundamental to adaptation planning. In both places, unconventional sources of climate risk information were used to more rigorously stress test water management and planning assumptions. The preferred adaptation decision frameworks were dynamic, iterative, and open-ended. The chapter closes by acknowledging that further development of the decision-making approaches described herein may be needed to evaluate mixtures of adaptation options across multiple sectors.

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erinn Finke ◽  
Kathryn Drager ◽  
Elizabeth C. Serpentine

Purpose The purpose of this investigation was to understand the decision-making processes used by parents of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) related to communication-based interventions. Method Qualitative interview methodology was used. Data were gathered through interviews. Each parent had a child with ASD who was at least four-years-old; lived with their child with ASD; had a child with ASD without functional speech for communication; and used at least two different communication interventions. Results Parents considered several sources of information for learning about interventions and provided various reasons to initiate and discontinue a communication intervention. Parents also discussed challenges introduced once opinions of the school individualized education program (IEP) team had to be considered. Conclusions Parents of children with ASD primarily use individual decision-making processes to select interventions. This discrepancy speaks to the need for parents and professionals to share a common “language” about interventions and the decision-making process.


Author(s):  
D. Verzilin ◽  
T. Maximova ◽  
I. Sokolova

Goal. The purpose of the study was to search for alternative sources of information on popu-lation’s preferences and response to problems and changes in the urban environment for use in the operational decision-making at situational centers. Materials and methods. The authors used data from search queries with keywords, data on communities in social networks, data from subject forums, and official statistics. Methods of statistical data analysis were applied. Results. The analysis of thematic online activity of the population was performed. The re-sults reflected the interest in the state of the environment, the possibility of distance learning and work, are presented. It was reasoned that measurements of population’s thematic online activity let identify needs and analyze the real-time response to changes in the urban envi-ronment. Such an approach to identifying the needs of the population can be used in addition to the platforms “Active Citizen” of the Smart City project. Conclusions. An analysis of data on online activity of the population for decision-making at situational centers is more operational, flexible and representative, as compared with the use of tools of those platforms. Such an analysis can be used as an alternative to sociological surveys, as it saves time and money. When making management decisions using intelligent information services, it is necessary to take into account the needs of the population, reflect-ed in its socio-economic activity in cyberspace.


Author(s):  
Laurence Smith

Analyzing the public policy challenge of multifunctional land use, for which farmers are required to be food producers, water resource managers and environmental stewards, it is argued that a location-sensitive policy mix is required, consisting of appropriate regulation complemented by advice provision, voluntarism, and well-targeted incentive schemes. The case is further made for adaptive management, local deliberation and stakeholder participation, and hence for governance that is open, delegated, and collaborative. Assessment, planning, and decision making need to be delegated to the most appropriate governmental level and spatial scale to achieve desired outcomes, whilst effective mechanisms for vertical and horizontal coordination of the resulting multilevel and polycentric governance are essential. Hydrographic catchments have significant advantages as spatial units for analysis, planning, coordination, and policy delivery. However, catchment-based working creates further need for cross-level, sector, and scale communication and coordination. Mechanisms for this merit further attention.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-36
Author(s):  
Henry Prakken ◽  
Rosa Ratsma

This paper proposes a formal top-level model of explaining the outputs of machine-learning-based decision-making applications and evaluates it experimentally with three data sets. The model draws on AI & law research on argumentation with cases, which models how lawyers draw analogies to past cases and discuss their relevant similarities and differences in terms of relevant factors and dimensions in the problem domain. A case-based approach is natural since the input data of machine-learning applications can be seen as cases. While the approach is motivated by legal decision making, it also applies to other kinds of decision making, such as commercial decisions about loan applications or employee hiring, as long as the outcome is binary and the input conforms to this paper’s factor- or dimension format. The model is top-level in that it can be extended with more refined accounts of similarities and differences between cases. It is shown to overcome several limitations of similar argumentation-based explanation models, which only have binary features and do not represent the tendency of features towards particular outcomes. The results of the experimental evaluation studies indicate that the model may be feasible in practice, but that further development and experimentation is needed to confirm its usefulness as an explanation model. Main challenges here are selecting from a large number of possible explanations, reducing the number of features in the explanations and adding more meaningful information to them. It also remains to be investigated how suitable our approach is for explaining non-linear models.


2010 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 135
Author(s):  
Kate Kelly

A Review of: Veinot, T., Harris, R., Bella, L., Rootman, I., & Krajnak, J. (2006). HIV/AIDS Information exchange in rural communities: Preliminary findings from a three-province study. Canadian Journal of Information and Library Science, 30(3/4), 271-290. Objective –To explore and analyze, against three theoretical frameworks of information behaviours, how people with HIV/AIDS, their friends, and their family living in rural communities find information on HIV/AIDS. Design – Qualitative, individual, in-depth, semi-structured interviews. Setting – Two rural regions in Ontario, Canada. Subjects – Sixteen participants; 10 people with HIV/AIDS (PHAs) and 6 family members or friends. Methods – Participants were recruited through health care providers, social service agencies and through snowball sampling. Semi-structure interviews were conducted focusing on participants’ experience with HIV/AIDS, how they find and use information on HIV/AIDS, networks for information exchange and the effect of technology on information exchange. Interviews were taped, transcribed, analyzed qualitatively using NVivo software. Results were compared to three theoretical frameworks for information behaviour: 1. purposeful information seeking (i.e., the idea that people purposefully seek information to bridge perceived knowledge gaps); 2. non-purposeful or incidental information acquisition (i.e., the idea that people absorb information from going about daily activities); and 3. information gate keeping (i.e., the concept of private individuals who act as community links and filters for information gathering and dissemination). Main Results – Consistent with the theories: • PHAs prefer to receive information from people they have a personal relationship with, particularly their physician and especially other PHAs. • PHAs’ friends and families rely on their friends and family for information, and are particularly reliant upon the PHA in their lives. • Fear of stigma and discrimination cause some to avoid seeking information or to prefer certain sources of information, such as healthcare providers, who are bound by codes of professional conduct. • Emotional support is important in information provision and its presence supersedes the professional role of the provider (social workers and counsellors were identified as key information sources over medical professionals in this instance). Participants responded negatively to the perceived lack of support from providers including doubting the information provided. • PHAs monitor their worlds and keep up to date about HIV/AIDS. Inconsistent with theories: • Reliance on caregivers for information is not solely explained by fear of stigma or exposure. Rather, it is the specialized knowledge and immersion in HIV/AIDS which is valued. • The distinction between peer or kin sources of information and institutional information sources is less clear and relationships with professionals can turn personal over time. • Inter-personal connections include organisations, not just individuals, particularly AIDS Service Organizations and HIV specialist clinics. • Relatively few incidents of finding useful information about HIV/AIDS incidentally were described. The concept of information just being “out there” was not really applicable to rural settings, likely due to the lack of discussion within participant communities and local media. When it was discussed, participants reported being more likely to gain misinformation through their personal networks. • Incidental information acquisition originates mostly from professional and organisational sources. Participants identified posters, leaflets, and, for those who interacted with organisations, information via mail as contributing to current awareness. • The gate keeping concept does not capture all the information sharing activities undertaken by “gate keepers” in rural areas, and neither does it include formal providers of information, yet all PHAs interviewed identified formal providers as key sources. Conclusion – The findings reinforce some of the existing analytical framework theories, particularly the importance of affective components (i.e. emotional supports) of information seeking, the presence of monitoring behaviours, and of interpersonal sources of information. However, alternate theories may need to be explored as the role of institutional information sources in the lives of PHAs doesn’t match the theoretical predication and the “gate keeper” concept doesn’t capture a significant portion of that role in rural HIV/AIDS information exchange.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
I. E. H. Kremer ◽  
P. J. Jongen ◽  
S. M. A. A. Evers ◽  
E. L. J. Hoogervorst ◽  
W. I. M. Verhagen ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Since decision making about treatment with disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) for multiple sclerosis (MS) is preference sensitive, shared decision making between patient and healthcare professional should take place. Patient decision aids could support this shared decision making process by providing information about the disease and the treatment options, to elicit the patient’s preference and to support patients and healthcare professionals in discussing these preferences and matching them with a treatment. Therefore, a prototype of a patient decision aid for MS patients in the Netherlands—based on the principles of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) —was developed, following the recommendations of the International Patient Decision Aid Standards. MCDA was chosen as it might reduce cognitive burden of considering treatment options and matching patient preferences with the treatment options. Results After determining the scope to include DMDs labelled for relapsing-remitting MS and clinically isolated syndrome, users’ informational needs were assessed using focus groups (N = 19 patients) and best-worst scaling surveys with patients (N = 185), neurologists and nurses (N = 60) to determine which information about DMDs should be included in the patient decision aid. Next, an online format and computer-based delivery of the patient decision aid was chosen to enable embedding of MCDA. A literature review was conducting to collect evidence on the effectiveness and burden of use of the DMDs. A prototype was developed next, and alpha testing to evaluate its comprehensibility and usability with in total thirteen patients and four healthcare professionals identified several issues regarding content and framing, methods for weighting importance of criteria in the MCDA structure, and the presentation of the conclusions of the patient decision aid ranking the treatment options according to the patient’s preferences. Adaptations were made accordingly, but verification of the rankings provided, validation of the patient decision aid, evaluation of the feasibility of implementation and assessing its value for supporting shared decision making should be addressed in further development of the patient decision aid. Conclusion This paper aimed to provide more transparency regarding the developmental process of an MCDA-based patient decision aid for treatment decisions for MS and the challenges faced during this process. Issues identified in the prototype were resolved as much as possible, though some issues remain. Further development is needed to overcome these issues before beta pilot testing with patients and healthcare professionals at the point of clinical decision-making can take place to ultimately enable making conclusions about the value of the MCDA-based patient decision aid for MS patients, healthcare professionals and the quality of care.


2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 207-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey K. Lazo ◽  
Donald M. Waldman ◽  
Betty Hearn Morrow ◽  
Jennifer A. Thacher

Abstract Hurricane warnings are the primary sources of information that enable the public to assess the risk and develop responses to threats from hurricanes. These warnings have significantly reduced the number of hurricane-related fatalities in the last several decades. Further investment in the science and implementation of the warning system is a primary mission of the National Weather Service and its partners. It is important that the weather community understand the public’s preferences and values for such investments; yet, there is little empirical information on the use of forecasts in evacuation decision making, the economic value of current forecasts, or the potential use or value for improvements in hurricane forecasts. Such information is needed to evaluate whether improved forecast provision and dissemination offer more benefit to society than alternative public investments. Fundamental aspects of households’ perceptions of hurricane forecasts and warnings and their potential uses of and values for improved hurricane forecast information are examined. The study was designed in part to examine the viability of survey research methods for exploring evacuation decision making and for eliciting values for improved hurricane forecasts and warnings. First, aspects that affect households’ stated likelihood of evacuation are explored, because informing such decisions is one of the primary purposes of hurricane forecasts and warnings. Then, stated-choice valuation methods are used to analyze choices between potential forecast-improvement programs and the accuracy of existing forecasts. From this, the willingness to pay (WTP) for improved forecasts is derived from survey respondents.


2021 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 153303382110163
Author(s):  
Danju Huang ◽  
Han Bai ◽  
Li Wang ◽  
Yu Hou ◽  
Lan Li ◽  
...  

With the massive use of computers, the growth and explosion of data has greatly promoted the development of artificial intelligence (AI). The rise of deep learning (DL) algorithms, such as convolutional neural networks (CNN), has provided radiation oncologists with many promising tools that can simplify the complex radiotherapy process in the clinical work of radiation oncology, improve the accuracy and objectivity of diagnosis, and reduce the workload, thus enabling clinicians to spend more time on advanced decision-making tasks. As the development of DL gets closer to clinical practice, radiation oncologists will need to be more familiar with its principles to properly evaluate and use this powerful tool. In this paper, we explain the development and basic concepts of AI and discuss its application in radiation oncology based on different task categories of DL algorithms. This work clarifies the possibility of further development of DL in radiation oncology.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document