scholarly journals Contemporary perspectives on the niche that can improve models of species range shifts under climate change

2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 573-576 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xavier Morin ◽  
Martin J Lechowicz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Community Diversity ◽  
Vegetation Types ◽  
Heterogeneous Landscapes ◽  
Niche Concept ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Effective Models

Pioneering efforts to predict shifts in species distribution under climate change used simple models based on the correlation between contemporary environmental factors and distributions. These models make predictions at coarse spatial scales and assume the constancy of present correlations between environment and distribution. Adaptive management of climate change impacts requires models that can make more robust predictions at finer spatio-temporal scales by accounting for processes that actually affect species distribution on heterogeneous landscapes. Mechanistic models of the distribution of both species and vegetation types have begun to emerge to meet these needs. We review these developments and highlight how recent advances in our understanding of relationships among the niche concept, species diversity and community assembly point the way towards more effective models for the impacts of global change on species distribution and community diversity.

scholarly journals An ecological ‘footprint’ of climate change

2005 ◽  
Vol 272 (1571) ◽  
pp. 1427-1432 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gian-Reto Walther ◽  
Silje Berger ◽  
Martin T Sykes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ground Truth ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Northern Margin ◽  
Winter Temperatures ◽  
Bioclimatic Model ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Recently, there has been increasing evidence of species' range shifts due to changes in climate. Whereas most of these shifts relate ground truth biogeographic data to a general warming trend in regional or global climate data, we here present a reanalysis of both biogeographic and bioclimatic data of equal spatio-temporal resolution, covering a time span of more than 50 years. Our results reveal a coherent and synchronous shift in both species' distribution and climate. They show not only a shift in the northern margin of a species, which is in concert with gradually increasing winter temperatures in the area, they also confirm the simulated species' distribution changes expected from a bioclimatic model under the recent, relatively moderate climate change.

Water resources and climate change: water managers' perceptions of these related environmental issues

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisabeth Michel-Guillou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Environmental Issues ◽  
Computer Assisted ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Management Schemes ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Temporal Dimensions ◽  
Development And Management

The present study focuses on climate change and water resources. Its objectives are: (i) to understand the perceptions of climate change by water managers responsible for the French Water Development and Management Schemes (SAGEs); and (ii) to determine whether or not these managers consider this phenomenon in their management of water resources. The analysis is mainly based on interviewees' spatio-temporal evaluation of these two environmental issues. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 49 people in France. The interviews were transcribed and analysed both manually and via a computer-assisted content analysis. The results show that for water, the major problem is ‘quality’, an issue that is known (i.e. defined by its social, spatial and temporal dimensions), whereas for climate change, this is defined by global warming, drought, or extreme events which are not regularly perceived or locally situated. This indicates that water managers recognize the existence of both issues and the relationships between them. However, because these problems are perceived at different temporal and spatial scales, it seems that these managers find it difficult to incorporate measures into their day-to-day decision-making that take into account the effects of climate change.

scholarly journals Response of Carbon Dynamics to Climate Change Varied among Different Vegetation Types in Central Asia

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qifei Han ◽  
Geping Luo ◽  
Chaofan Li ◽  
Shoubo Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Carbon Dynamics ◽  
The Other ◽  
Vegetation Types ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
A Value ◽  
Spatio Temporal

The effect of climate change on the spatio-temporal patterns of the terrestrial carbon dynamics in Central Asia have not been adequately quantified despite its potential importance to the global carbon cycle. Therefore, the modified BioGeochemical Cycles (Biome-BGC) model was applied in this study to evaluate the impacts of climatic change on net primary productivity (NPP) and net ecosystem productivity. Four vegetation types were studied during the period 1979 to 2011: cropland, grassland, forest, and shrubland. The results indicated that: (1) The climate data showed that Central Asia experienced a rise in annual mean temperature and a decline in precipitation from 1979 to 2011; (2) the mean NPP for Central Asia in 1979–2011 was 281.79 gC m−2 yr−1, and the cropland had the highest NPP compared with the other vegetation types, with a value of 646.25 gC m−2 yr−1; (3) grassland presented as a carbon source (−0.21 gC m−2 yr−1), whereas the other three types were carbon sinks; (4) the four vegetation types showed similar responses to climate variation during the past 30 years, and grassland is the most sensitive ecosystem in Central Asia. This study explored the possible implications for climate adaptation and mitigation.

scholarly journals Using species distribution models only may underestimate climate change impacts on future marine biodiversity

2022 ◽  
Vol 464 ◽  
pp. 109826
Author(s):  
Fabien Moullec ◽  
Nicolas Barrier ◽  
Sabrine Drira ◽  
François Guilhaumon ◽  
Tarek Hattab ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Marine Biodiversity ◽  
Distribution Models

scholarly journals C3S Energy: an operational service to deliver power demand and supply for different electricity sources, time and spatial scales over Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Dubus ◽  
Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan ◽  
Alberto Troccoli ◽  
Matteo De Felice ◽  
Yohann Moreau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Power Demand ◽  
Hydro Power ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Climate Service ◽  
Energy Service

The EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has produced an operational climate service, called C3S Energy, designed to enable the energy industry and policy makers to assess the impacts of climate variability and climate change on the energy sector in Europe. The C3S Energy service covers different time horizons, for the past forty years and the future. It provides time series of electricity demand and supply from wind, solar photovoltaic and hydro power, and can be used for recent trends analysis, seasonal outlooks or the assessment of climate change impacts on energy mixes in the long-term.This paper introduces this dataset, with a focus on the design and validation of the energy conversion models, based on ENTSO-E energy data and the ERA5 climate reanalysis. Flexibility and coherence across all countries have been privileged upon models’ accuracy. However, the comparison with ENTSO-E data shows that the models provide plausible energy indicators and, in particular, allow to compare climate variability effects on power demand and generation in an homogenous approach all over Europe.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Hagenia Abyssinica in Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tsegaye Gobezie ◽  
Silesh Namomissa ◽  
Tamrat Bekele
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Hagenia Abyssinica ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Conservation Actions ◽  
The Impact

Research Highlights: Hagenia abyssinica is geographically localized, poor regenerated and endangered species in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has been experiencing variability of rainfall and rise in temperature due to the climate change. This study has hypothesized that the suitable areas for the species will be narrowed by the year 2070. Background and Objective The prediction of species distribution models help to implement appropriate conservation actions. The aim of this research was to identify the current and likely future distribution range and suitable areas for the species, and to determine the presence of H. absyssinica in risk in a short-term future. Material and method: To this end, occurrence data, bioclim variables, soil, elevation, and land cover map of Ethiopia were used. MaxEnt was used to predict distribution. Climate change impacts on the distribution of the species was performed using bioclimatic variables of the future climate data, 2070 (average for 2061-2080) was obtained from IPPC5 (CMIP5) at 30 seconds (1km) spatial resolution. The climate data was projected from GCMs, downscaled and calibrated using rcp4.5. Results: Both current and likely future distribution models were excellent and significantly better than random performance. This study has computed 59987 km2 to be the low impact area for the species under current conditions and will remain habitat under future climates and 39025 km2 area has been identified as the possible high impact areas or declining habitat. The model has also determined that 1238724 km2 of the areas are unsuitable at present and for future climates. The current study found that 15751 km2 of the area will be modified as a new suitable area for H. abyssinica due to climate change. Conclusion: Species distribution modeling is essential for the implementation of conservation actions that are compatible with the inevitable changing climatic conditions of the country.

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