Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Hagenia Abyssinica in Ethiopia

Research Highlights: Hagenia abyssinica is geographically localized, poor regenerated and endangered species in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has been experiencing variability of rainfall and rise in temperature due to the climate change. This study has hypothesized that the suitable areas for the species will be narrowed by the year 2070. Background and Objective The prediction of species distribution models help to implement appropriate conservation actions. The aim of this research was to identify the current and likely future distribution range and suitable areas for the species, and to determine the presence of H. absyssinica in risk in a short-term future. Material and method: To this end, occurrence data, bioclim variables, soil, elevation, and land cover map of Ethiopia were used. MaxEnt was used to predict distribution. Climate change impacts on the distribution of the species was performed using bioclimatic variables of the future climate data, 2070 (average for 2061-2080) was obtained from IPPC5 (CMIP5) at 30 seconds (1km) spatial resolution. The climate data was projected from GCMs, downscaled and calibrated using rcp4.5. Results: Both current and likely future distribution models were excellent and significantly better than random performance. This study has computed 59987 km2 to be the low impact area for the species under current conditions and will remain habitat under future climates and 39025 km2 area has been identified as the possible high impact areas or declining habitat. The model has also determined that 1238724 km2 of the areas are unsuitable at present and for future climates. The current study found that 15751 km2 of the area will be modified as a new suitable area for H. abyssinica due to climate change. Conclusion: Species distribution modeling is essential for the implementation of conservation actions that are compatible with the inevitable changing climatic conditions of the country.

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A 1-km global dataset of historical (1979–2017) and future (2020–2100) Köppen-Geiger climate classification and bioclimatic variables

10.5194/essd-2021-53 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Diyang Cui ◽

Shunlin Liang ◽

Dongdong Wang ◽

Zheng Liu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Global Scale ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Climate Classification ◽

Climate Zones ◽

Bioclimatic Variables

Abstract. The Köppen-Geiger climate classification scheme provides an effective and ecologically meaningful way to characterize climatic conditions and has been widely applied in climate change studies. The Köppen-Geiger climate maps currently available are limited by relatively low spatial resolution, poor accuracy, and noncomparable time periods. Comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts requires a more accurate depiction of fine-grained climatic conditions and continuous long-term time coverage. Here, we present a series of improved 1-km Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps for ten historical periods in 1979–2017 and four future periods in 2020–2099 under RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. The historical maps are derived from multiple downscaled observational datasets and the future maps are derived from an ensemble of bias-corrected downscaled CMIP5 projections. In addition to climate classification maps, we calculate 12 bioclimatic variables at 1-km resolution, providing detailed descriptions of annual averages, seasonality, and stressful conditions of climates. The new maps offer higher classification accuracy and demonstrate the ability to capture recent and future projected changes in spatial distributions of climate zones. On regional and continental scales, the new maps show accurate depictions of topographic features and correspond closely with vegetation distributions. We also provide a heuristic application example to detect long-term global-scale area changes of climate zones. This high-resolution dataset of Köppen-Geiger climate classification and bioclimatic variables can be used in conjunction with species distribution models to promote biodiversity conservation and to analyze and identify recent and future interannual or interdecadal changes in climate zones on a global or regional scale. The dataset referred to as KGClim, is publicly available at http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4546140 for historical climate and http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4542076 for future climate.

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Predicting the current and future distribution of four original plants of Gentianae Macrophyllae Radix in China under climate change scenarios

10.1101/2021.01.26.428226 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Houkang Cao ◽

Xiaohui Ma ◽

Li Liu ◽

Shaoyang Xi ◽

Yanxiu Guo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Gentiana Macrophylla ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

The Impact

AbstractThe wild resources of the four original plants (Gentiana crasicaulis Duthie ex Burk, Gentiana daurica Fisch, Gentiana straminea Maxim, and Gentiana macrophylla Pall) of Gentianae Macrophyllae Radix are becoming exhausted. Predicting the distribution under current and future climate scenarios is of significance for the sustainable utilization of resources and ecological protection. In this study, we constructed four species distribution models (SDMs) combining species distribution informations, 19 bioclimatic variables, and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The results showed that these 4 plants prefer a cool and humid climate. Under the future climate scenarios, the areas of the highly suitable habitats for Gentiana crasicaulis Duthie ex Burk and Gentiana daurica Fisch were likely to decrease, while Gentiana straminea Maxim was likely to expand, and Gentiana macrophylla Pall was less affected. In addition, the centroids of the highly suitable habitats for the four species shifted north or west. Most notably, most of the highly suitable habitats for the four species remained unchanged, which would be the preferred area for semi-artificial cultivation. The above information in this study would contribute to the development of reasonable strategies to reduce the impact of climate change on the four original plants.

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Using species distribution modelling to determine opportunities for trophic rewilding under future scenarios of climate change

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rstb.2017.0446 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 373 (1761) ◽

pp. 20170446 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Scott Jarvie ◽

Jens-Christian Svenning

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

First Century ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Distribution Modelling ◽

Major Barrier ◽

Methodological Choices ◽

Biodiversity And Ecosystem Function

Trophic rewilding, the (re)introduction of species to promote self-regulating biodiverse ecosystems, is a future-oriented approach to ecological restoration. In the twenty-first century and beyond, human-mediated climate change looms as a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem function. A critical aspect in planning trophic rewilding projects is the selection of suitable sites that match the needs of the focal species under both current and future climates. Species distribution models (SDMs) are currently the main tools to derive spatially explicit predictions of environmental suitability for species, but the extent of their adoption for trophic rewilding projects has been limited. Here, we provide an overview of applications of SDMs to trophic rewilding projects, outline methodological choices and issues, and provide a synthesis and outlook. We then predict the potential distribution of 17 large-bodied taxa proposed as trophic rewilding candidates and which represent different continents and habitats. We identified widespread climatic suitability for these species in the discussed (re)introduction regions under current climates. Climatic conditions generally remain suitable in the future, although some species will experience reduced suitability in parts of these regions. We conclude that climate change is not a major barrier to trophic rewilding as currently discussed in the literature.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change’.

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Hotspots of change in major tree species under climate warming

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-22325 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Flurin Babst ◽

Richard L. Peters ◽

Rafel O. Wüest ◽

Margaret E.K. Evans ◽

Ulf Büntgen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Sensitivity ◽

Tree Growth ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Tree Species ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Species Distribution Models ◽

Sensitivity Index ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Bioclimatic Variables

Warming alters the variability and trajectories of tree growth around the world by intensifying or alleviating energy and water limitation. This insight from regional to global-scale research emphasizes the susceptibility of forest ecosystems and resources to climate change. However, globally-derived trends are not necessarily meaningful for local nature conservation or management considerations, if they lack specific information on present or prospective tree species. This is particularly the case towards the edge of their distribution, where shifts in growth trajectories may be imminent or already occurring.Importantly, the geographic and bioclimatic space (or &#8220;niche&#8221;) occupied by a tree species is not only constrained by climate, but often reflects biotic pressure such as competition for resources with other species. This aspect is underrepresented in many species distribution models that define the niche as a climatic envelope, which is then allowed to shift in response to changes in ambient conditions. Hence, distinguishing climatic from competitive niche boundaries becomes a central challenge to identifying areas where tree species are most susceptible to climate change.Here we employ a novel concept to characterize each position within a species&#8217; bioclimatic niche based on two criteria: a climate sensitivity index (CSI) and a habitat suitability index (HSI). The CSI is derived from step-wise multiple linear regression models that explain variability in annual radial tree growth as a function of monthly climate anomalies. The HSI is based on an ensemble of five species distribution models calculated from a combination of observed species occurrences and twenty-five bioclimatic variables. We calculated these two indices for 11 major tree species across the Northern Hemisphere.The combination of climate sensitivity and habitat suitability indicated hotspots of change, where tree growth is mainly limited by competition (low HSI and low CSI), as well as areas that are particularly sensitive to climate variability (low HSI and high CSI). In the former, we expect that forest management geared towards adjusting the competitive balance between several candidate species will be most effective under changing environmental conditions. In the latter areas, selecting particularly drought-tolerant accessions of a given species may reduce forest susceptibility to the predicted warming and drying.

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SWAT BASED ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT IN THENPENNAI SUB-BASIN OF SOUTH INDIA

ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences ◽

10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-5-557-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol XLII-5 ◽

pp. 557-562

Author(s):

K. Nivedita Priyadarshini ◽

S. A. Rahaman ◽

S. Nithesh Nirmal ◽

R. Jegankumar ◽

P. Masilamani

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Scale Model ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact ◽

Soil And Water

Abstract. Climate change impacts on watershed ecosystems and hydrologic processes are complex. The key significant parameters responsible for balancing the watershed ecosystems are temperature and rainfall. Though these parameters are uncertain, they play a prime role in the projections of dimensional climate change studies. The impact of climate change is more dependent on temperature and precipitation which contributes at a larger magnitude for characterising global warming issues. This paper aims to forecast the variations of temperature and precipitation during the period of 2020&ndash;2050 for the northern part of Thenpennar sub basin. This study is modelled using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) &ndash; a scale model developed to predict the impact of changes that occurs in land, soil and water over a period of time. This study is validated using the base period from 1980&ndash;2000 which shows the distribution of rainfall and temperature among 38 watersheds. The results from this study show that there is a decrease in the rainfall for a maximum of about 20% in the month of December during the predicted period of 2020 and 2050. This study assesses the possible adverse impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation of Thenpennai sub-basin. This kind of predictions will help the government agencies, rulers and decision makers in policy making and implementing the adaptation strategies for the changing climatic conditions.

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Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations: New Challenges for the Wine Industry

Journal of Wine Economics ◽

10.1017/jwe.2016.3 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 139-149 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Nathalie Ollat ◽

Jean-Marc Touzard ◽

Cornelis van Leeuwen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Wine Industry ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Wine Quality ◽

Wine Production ◽

Wine Making ◽

Wide Range ◽

The Impact

AbstractClimate change will have a profound effect on vine growing worldwide. Wine quality will also be affected, which will raise economic issues. Possible adaptations may result from changes in plant material, viticultural techniques, and the wine-making process. Relocation of vineyards to cooler areas and increased irrigation are other options, but they may result in potential conflicts for land and water use. Grapes are currently grown in many regions around the world, and growers have adapted their practices to the wide range of climatic conditions that can be found among or inside these areas. This knowledge is precious for identifying potential adaptations to climate change. Because climate change affects all activities linked to wine production (grape growing, wine making, wine economics, and environmental issues), multidisciplinary research is needed to guide growers to continue to produce high-quality wines in an economical and environmentally sustainable way. An example of such an interdisciplinary study is the French LACCAVE (long-term adaptation to climate change in viticulture and enology) project, in which researchers from 23 institutes work together on all issues related to the impact of climate change on wine production. (JEL Classifications: Q1, Q5)

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Future hydrology and hydrological extremes under climate change in Asian river basins

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-96656-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Sangam Shrestha ◽

Deg-Hyo Bae ◽

Panha Hok ◽

Suwas Ghimire ◽

Yadu Pokhrel

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Southeast Asia ◽

River Flow ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

River Basins ◽

Global Scale ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Spatiotemporal Variability ◽

Climatic Extremes ◽

The Impact

AbstractThe diverse impacts of anthropogenic climate change in the spatiotemporal distribution of global freshwater are generally addressed through global scale studies, which suffer from uncertainties arising from coarse spatial resolution. Multi-catchment, regional studies provide fine-grained details of these impacts but remain less explored. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on the hydrology of 19 river basins from different geographical and climatic conditions in South and Southeast Asia. We find that these two regions will get warmer (1.5 to 7.8 °C) and wetter (− 3.4 to 46.2%) with the expected increment in river flow (− 18.5 to 109%) at the end of the twenty-first century under climate change. An increase in seasonal hydro-climatic extremes in South Asia and the rising intensity of hydro-climatic extremes during only one season in Southeast Asia illustrates high spatiotemporal variability in the impact of climate change and augments the importance of similar studies on a larger scale for broader understanding.

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The Influence of the Interaction between Climate and Competition on the Distributional Limits of European Shrews

Animals ◽

10.3390/ani12010057 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 57

Author(s):

Tomé Neves ◽

Luís Borda-de-Água ◽

Maria da Luz Mathias ◽

Joaquim T. Tapisso

Keyword(s):

Species Distribution ◽

Ecological Factors ◽

Biotic Interactions ◽

Species Distributions ◽

Climate Data ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Presence Data ◽

Geographical Scale ◽

The Impact ◽

Distributional Limits

It is known that species’ distributions are influenced by several ecological factors. Nonetheless, the geographical scale upon which the influence of these factors is perceived is largely undefined. We assessed the importance of competition in regulating the distributional limits of species at large geographical scales. We focus on species with similar diets, the European Soricidae shrews, and how interspecific competition changes along climatic gradients. We used presence data for the seven most widespread terrestrial species of Soricidae in Europe, gathered from GBIF, European museums, and climate data from WorldClim. We made use of two Joint Species Distribution Models to analyse the correlations between species’ presences, aiming to understand the distinct roles of climate and competition in shaping species’ distributions. Our results support three key conclusions: (i) climate alone does not explain all species’ distributions at large scales; (ii) negative interactions, such as competition, seem to play a strong role in defining species’ range limits, even at large scales; and (iii) the impact of competition on a species’ distribution varies along a climatic gradient, becoming stronger at the climatic extremes. Our conclusions support previous research, highlighting the importance of considering biotic interactions when studying species’ distributions, regardless of geographical scale.

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Species distribution modelling using bioclimatic variables to determine the impacts of a changing climate on the western ringtail possum (Pseudocheirus occidentals; Pseudocheiridae)

Environmental Conservation ◽

10.1017/s0376892913000337 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 41 (2) ◽

pp. 176-186 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

SHAUN W. MOLLOY ◽

ROBERT A. DAVIS ◽

EDDIE J. B. VAN ETTEN

Keyword(s):

Species Distribution ◽

Tree Species ◽

Anthropogenic Impacts ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Data ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Core Habitat ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Ringtail Possum

SUMMARYThe ngwayir (western ringtail possum Pseudocheirus occidentalis) is an arboreal species endemic to south-western Australia. The range and population of this species have been significantly reduced through multiple anthropogenic impacts. Classified as vulnerable, the ngwayir is highly susceptible to extremes of temperature and reduced water intake. Ngwayir distribution was determined using three different species distribution models using ngwayir presence records related to a set of 19 bioclimatic variables derived from historical climate data, overlaid with 2050 climate change scenarios. MaxEnt was used to identify core habitat and demonstrate how this habitat may be impacted. A supplementary modelling exercise was also conducted to ascertain potential impacts on the tree species that are core habitat for ngwayir. All models predicted a reduction of up to 60% in the range of the ngwayir and its habitat, as a result of global warming towards the south-west of the project area, with a mean potential distribution of 10.3% of the total modelled area of 561 059 km2. All three tree species modelled (jarrah, marri and peppermint) were predicted to experience similar contractions in range throughout most of the predicted ngwayir range, although their distributions differed. Populations of ngwayir persisting outside core habitat may indicate potential conservation opportunities.

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Impacts of climate change on net crop revenue in North and South China

China Agricultural Economic Review ◽

10.1108/caer-12-2012-0138 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 358-378 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Jinxia Wang ◽

Jikun Huang ◽

Lijuan Zhang ◽

Yumin Li

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Climate Data ◽

The South ◽

Content Type ◽

The North ◽

Precipitation Variation ◽

The Impact ◽

North And South ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the impacts of climate change on crop net revenue by region. Particularly, the authors focus on the impact differences between north and south regions. Design/methodology/approach – The authors applied the Ricardian approach which assumes that each farmer wishes to maximize revenue subject to the exogenous conditions of their farm. The climate data are based on actual measurements in 753 national meteorological stations and the socio-economic data covers 8,405 farms across 28 provinces in China. Findings – On average, the rise of annual temperature will hurt farms both in the north or south. The impacts of climate change on both precipitation and temperatures have different seasonal impacts on producers in the north and the south of China. As a consequence, the impact on net farm revenues varies with farms in the north and the south being adversely affected (to different degrees) by a rise in the temperature, but both benefiting from an anticipated increase in rainfall. The results also reveal that irrigation is one key adaption measure to dealing with climate change. Whether in the north or south of China, increasing temperature is beneficial to irrigated farms, while for rainfed farms, higher temperature will result in a reduction in net revenues. The results also reveal that farms in the north are more vulnerable to temperature and precipitation variation than that in the south. Irrigated farms in the south are more vulnerable to precipitation variation than that in the north; but rainfed farms in the north are more vulnerable to precipitation variation than that in the south. Originality/value – Applying empirical analysis to identify the differences of climate change impacts between north and south regions will help policy makers to design reasonable adaptation policies for various regions.

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